Not quite Points Spy

Obviously, some of us are missing Cogen and his brilliant Points Spy threads for the GS events, but here's my attempt to at least give some indication of what could happen in the rankings. I've not looked at who of the 5-10 players are in which half of the draw

Obviously a bit late as all the top 10 bar the absent Raonic are already into R3 (now all into the last 16). Perhaps more significant that Dimitrov at #11 is already out.

I'm not clever enough to do the tables, but here's a breakdown of the top 10 as far as I can tell:

1 - Djokovic (Points 13845 - drop 1200. Live points = 12825 for R4. Possible max = 14645)
Cannot be caught for the #1, and a good performance here could see him safe through Wimbledon

2 - Federer (Points 9235 - drop  180. Live points = 9235 for R4. Possible max = 11055)
Can't be caught for #2. Oddly though, if he were to lose the final to Djokovic, he would actually close the gap on points.

3 - Murrray (Points 7040 - drop 720. Live points = 6500 for R4. Possible max = 8320)
Can't catch Fed, although could keep the gap manageable for Wimbledon especially given the points drop for each there. Can be caught if Nishi or Berdych win and Andy doesn't make the final / semi-final respectively or if Nishi is runner up and Andy loses his next match, If Nishi loses the final and Andy loses in R4, they both end on 6500 points.

4 - Berdych (Points 5230 - drop 360. Live points = 5050 for R4. Possible max = 6870)
Been passed by Nishi on live points (because of their relative dropped points), and can only catch Andy by winning the tournament. Cannot be passed by Rafa, and it would need a deep run by any below to pass him.

5 - Nishikori (Points 5220 - drop 10. Live points = 5570 for QF. Possible max = 7210).
De facto #4 at the moment. Can catch Murray by winning and Andy not reaching the final. As with Berdy, can mathematically be caught by Ferrer or Stan if they win the tournament and Nishi loses before the SF

6 - Raonic (Points 4800 - drop 360. Live points = 4440, absent injured)
Can be caught by Ferrer, Stan or Cilic if they go deep, but helped by Rafa being in a position where he cannot add to his current points haul, in that Rafa would have to win the tournament to pass him

7 - Nadal (Points 4570 - drop 2000. Live points = 2750 for R4. Possible max = 4570)
Not much to gain and much to lose for Rafa. One more win to guarantee his top 10 place (Although of course he has almost no points to defend for the rest of the calendar year). Needs to win to have a chance of staying ahead of Ferrer and Stan and to pass Raonic. OK, so the guy with a 98.5% win record at RG has a decent chance, but I just can't see him getting past Djokovic in the QF this year.

8 - Ferrer (Points 4490 - drop 360. Live points 4300 for R4. Possible max = 6130).
De facto #7, and with a good chance of staying there or even passing Raonic by reaching the QF. Passes Rafa with a SF regardless of Rafa's performance.

9 - Wawrinka (Points 3845 - drop 10. Live points 4195 for QF. Possible max = 5835).
De facto #8. Passes Raonic with a SF and would definitely be ahead of Rafa with a losing final appearance even if Rafa wins. Would need to reach at least the SF to pass Ferrer

10 - Cilic (Points 3370 - drop 90. Live points 3460 for R4. Possible max = 5280)
De facto #9, effectively being ahead of Rafa, and will stay there unless Rafa makes the final. Would need to reach the final to catch Stan and Ferrer, and to win to pass Raonic

Nicely done, DH.

I always think this is great

http://live-tennis.eu/

Bogbrush

Cheers - would have saved me some work.

Thought Edmund would make it above 100, but looks like he's just outside

Nice one dummy_half, this is great.

Big gains too for Goffin, Krygios, Andujar, Coric, Gabashvili and Kokkinakis who are all still in the tournament at the moment.

Who's next new face in the top ten then?

Goffin perhaps? Simon or Tsonga may make it, but they've already been there. D

A few updates from further down the steep, steep ladder:

Career high rankings for Goffin (#15), Krygios (#25), Thiem (#30), Coric (#41) and Kokkinakis (#68). Zverev is also at a career-high #83, and the youngest player in the top 100. Kuznetsov and Edmund both jumped over twenty places each, too.

Sock (#31), Chardy (#37), and Gabashvili (#58) are still in the tournament, and possibly Bolelli if he can beat Ferrer.

Berdych gone - won't be higher than #5 in the new rankings. Long shot that he could be caught by Ferrer or Stan, but they would need to win the title.

One other ranking move of note - Gulbis dropped from mid 20s into the 80s.

An update on the rankings:

Djoko: #1

Andy: If Murray wins the title, he'd be toe to toe with Federer when you drop the Halle and Wimby points.

Stan: only way to go up the ranking is to win the tournament. That would bring him to #3 (with just a F, he'd be 15 points behind Berdych and he has more points to defend on grass)

Jo-W: Should he beat Stan, he'd be #10, just above Rafa... who would drop at #11 for the first time in over 10 years (528 weeks). If JW wins, he'll reach #9

Reckon Andy will be number two at the end of the year. Perhaps for once Rafa will have a strong end to the year so he should certainly not be discounted when you're looking at a year-end top four.

Feds has a lot to defend from now on.
Halle, Wimby final, Toronto final, Cincy, US sf, Shanghai, Basel, 02 finals. That's over 5000.

Update before the semi-finals:

1 - Djokovic : Currently 13365. Wins SF 13845. Wins Final 14645
Number 1 position is looking safe for an extended period, especially as after Wimbledon his points haul through last summer was not outstanding (lots of points to defend after USO)

2 - Federer : 9415
Number 1 now out of reach as he has a lot to defend through Wimbledon and the pre USO hard court season.

3 - Murray : Currently 7040. Wins SF 7520. Wins Final 8320
Secure in 3rd and should be looking to get to #2 by the USO.

4 - Nishikori : 5570
Fairly secure #4. A Wawrinka win would push him down, but otherwise will have a 500 point margin to #5.

5 - Berdych : 5050
Can only be passed if Stan wins the title. Very close if Stan loses the final

6 - Wawrinka : Currently 4555. Win SF 5035. Win Final 5835
Stays 6th unless he wins the tournament

7 - Ferrer : 4490

8 - Raonic : 4440

9 - Cilic : 3460

10 - Nadal : 2930.
One upside for Rafa is that he has barely anything to defend for the rest of the year - 180 points from Wimbledon being his highest, and in total less than 400 points to defend for the rest of 2015. Really, the only way is up (at least ranking points wise) from here.

12 - Tsonga: Currently 2585. Wins SF 3065. Wins Final 3865.
Jumps Nadal (and Dimitrov) with a win today, and would also pass Cilic if he won the title.

Looking (rather) further down the rankings, to just outside the top 100. Ward is playing Manchester and is in the QF - a win would see him jump to 101 or 102 in the 'live' rankings, and winning the tournament would put him comfortably inside the top 100 (about 97th). Edmund currently in 105 but not active this week.

The Rafa rest-of-the-year, points-to-defend tally is significant. he won't really have to do all that well to go up the rankings over the next few months.
In contrast he had to do exceptionally well in the recent clay-court season just to stand still.
Without having reference books in front of me, I think this is the first time since after the AO in 2010 that Rafa has not got at least one 2,000-point GS win on his rolling-year points. Seem to remember he had a pretty good 2010 after that.

Anybody know how far Dimi will fall if he say doesn't defend his title in Queens and falls early at Wimby? 
Not quite a Gulbis drop but a big one?

Probably somewhere around #15. Nowhere near as bad as Gulbis. Dimi has been very disappointing this year, but that is relative to the expectations. On an absolute level, he is still playing ok-ish.

The highest Rafa can be seeded at Wimbledon is 10 now..

In these times of comments famine like pointed out in other thread (is all calm before a storm that could be a R1 upset of a big guy tomorrow?), here's a minimalistic look at points for Wimby (now that the live-tennis.eu site is updated with the slam)

Rank. Name: max rank, min rank -- race rank: max race rank, min race rank

1. Djoko: 1, 1 -- 1: 1, 1
2. Fed: 2, 3 -- 4: 2, 9
3. Andy: 2, 4 -- 2: 2, 4
4. Stan: 3, 7 -- 3: 2, 5
5. Kei: 3, 7 -- 6: 3, 8
6. Berdy: 4, 7 -- 5: 2, 8
7. Ferrer: 7, 9 -- 7: 7, 9
8. Raonic: 4, 11 -- 9: 4, 15
9. Cilic: 6, 13 -- 43: 9, below 64
10. Nadal: 7, 13 -- 8: 3, 10

btw, noting the huge gap set by the Race top 8 on the chasing pack: #8 Nadal: 2820, #9 Raonic: 1640, #10 Anderson: 1345  .
This is big because the Race Top 8 is the same than the ATP top 8, bar Raonic/Nadal - Ferrer, not playing Wimby, can only drop to #9 worst case scenario in both rankings (which needs a Wimby winner out of top 8, or a SF by Raonic with a win by either Cilic or Nadal where rankings are concerned)

Looking like nothing much to change this year, so bring on upsets!

To add some random points:
- lowest ranked player who can not break the top 8: Tommy Robredo, ranked 19
- lowert RACE ranked player who can not break top 8: Ivo Karlovic, ranked 25

Biugo

ATP site revision has made it slightly easier to do now - includes the points to be dropped next.

Summary the day before Wimbledon:
Djokovic - 13845 points. Drop 2000. 'Live' points 11845.
Cannot be caught, and even with a failure and Federer winning, would still lead by nearly 1500.

Federer - 9665 points. Drop 1200. 'Live' points 8465
Keeps #2 if he reaches the SF. Short of that and Murray passes him by winning.

Murray - 7450 points. Drop 360. 'Live' points 7090.
As noted above, only passes Fed with an win and if RF loses before their SF meeting. Could be passed by either Stan or Nishi if they win and Andy loses R4 or QF respectively.

Wawrinka - 5790 points. Drop 360. 'Live points 5430. Actually falls 50 points behind Nishi on live points, so needs to go further to stay ahead. Unlikely to get ahead of Murray, as Andy only needs to reach the QF regardless of Stan's result.

Nishikori - 5660 points. Drop 180. ' Live' points 5480.
Already up 1, and a win could see him past Murray, if Andy doesn't reach the SF.

Berdych - 5050 points. Drop 90. 'Live' points 4960
Has to reach at leas the SF to have a chance of passing Nishi and/or Stan (if they lose R4). With Ferrer's withdrawal, can only be passed for 6th if loses QF or before and Raonic or Cilic win.

Ferrer - 4490 points. Drop 45. Final points 4445
Withdrawn injured. Should stay #7 in the rankings as Raonic would need to reach the final to pass him.

Raonic - 4440 points. Drop 720. 'Live' points 3720
Big points drop means he would have to reach the final to pass Ferrer and win to have a chance of passing Berdy. Only gets passed if Cilic reaches at least the SF and Rafa the final.

Cilic - 3540 points. Drop 360. 'Live' points 3180.
SF or F could see him pass Raonic, and a win passes Ferrer. Rafa not far behind.

Nadal - 3135 points. Drop 180. 'Live' points 2955.
Not much threat from behind. Tsonga would need to reach the SF at least and Dimi the final. A chance of catching CIlic if he goes a couple of rounds further.

Dimitrov - 2600 points. Drop 720. 'Live' points 1880.
Included because of the big points drop. Falls behind Tsonga, Simon, Anderson and Goffin in the live rankings, and will need to reach at least the SF to get back ahead of Tsonga.

I was going to say: Round 1 - nothing happened.

Add 45 points to each 'live score.

First big news though is Nishi withdrawing before his R2 match with a calf injury. Looks like Stan will keep the #4 spot.

Update after half of R3

Djokovic - 13845 points. Drop 2000. 'Live' points 12025.
Looking excellent so far.

Federer - 9665 points. Drop 1200. 'Live' points 8555

Murray - 7450 points. Drop 360. 'Live' points 7180.
Will be quite glad to see Rafa and Ferrer out of his way. Nishi no longer a threat

Wawrinka - 5790 points. Drop 360. 'Live points 5610.
Back in front of Nishi after the R3 win

Nishikori - 5660 points. Drop 180. Final points 5525.
Withdrawn before R2

Berdych - 5050 points. Drop 90. 'Live' points 5050
Has to reach at leas the SF to have a chance of passing Nishi.

Ferrer - 4490 points. Drop 45. Final points 4445
Withdrawn injured. Could only possibly be passed now by Cilic winning

Raonic - 4440 points. Drop 720. Final points 3810
Lost R3. Cilic would need to reach the SF to pass him.

Cilic - 3540 points. Drop 360. 'Live' points 3270.
Currently in a battle with Isner - 10 all in the 5th. Not ideal preparation for a run deep into the draw

Nadal - 3135 points. Drop 180. Final points 3000.
Lost R2. Can only be passed if the players below reach the semi final (Tsonga, Simon). final (Goffin, Anderson, Monfils) or win (any other remaining seed).

Dimitrov - 2600 points. Drop 720. Final points 1970.
Lost R3. Big drop of points sees him already down to 15, and will be passed by Monfils and Isner if they win their next / current match.

Movers and shakers lower down-
Groth only up 2 spots so far to 67, but winning his next match would push him up 10 positions.

Dustin Brown - already up 22 spots to 80 as a qualifier and into R3. Another win would see him up another 9 places

Ward - up to 88th after his R2 win. Beating Popsickle would move him up to the mid 60s.

And in one of those quirks of the rankings, Kyrgios is currently down 11 places even after his R3 win. Another win (iirc Gasquet next) would see him back inside the top 32