Nadal Adds Up His Chances

Ranking points, Race points, Defending points and an eight month injury break. This can all make figuring out who has the best chance to get to number one and what they have to do to get there. But don't worry Rafa is ahead on this "complex" mathematical problem, has figured out the numbers and was able to give a quick analysis that the general public can understand. All this whilst still wearing his sweaty clothes from his latest final and clutching his new trophy... (Not that he's worried about such things... cough)

The 12-times Grand Slam winner believes he has a chance of returning to world number one by the end of the year, having made a successful comeback from a seven-month lay-off.

"I feel I have an advantage, but not enough to say that I am the favourite," he said.

"On this kind of surface, Novak is really good. There remains three Masters 1000s, one grand slam, World Tour Finals - more favourable surfaces for him than for me. So we are talking about 6,500 points.

"We have to realise how many points I have to win to be number one. I think I will not be number one if I have less than 10,000 points at the end of the season. Today I have 8,000. I need to win minimum 2,000 more.

"That's very difficult in this part of the season, but I'm going to try."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/23662040

So 2,000 points? Anyone good with a calculator prepared to give an over/under estimate on this figure? And show the workings obviously...

He's probably not far off but it really comes down now to how his results compare to Novak.

Hypothetically, if Novak wins the remaining events of the season and Rafa finishes runner up, then Novak finishes as number 1 even though Rafa would have gained more than 2000 points.

I don't realistically expect the above to happen though!

It's so hard to make predictions prior to USO as we could see some big points swings there.

My hunch as things stand is that we will reach WTF with the #1 technically still to play for but only requiring a couple of wins for Rafa to seal it and requiring Novak to win undefeated to stand a chance.

Last year Djokovic had a stormer of a post-Wimbledon to take the #1. He won Toronto, Final USO, Won Shanghai, China and took WTF (no losses), he got about 6, 000 points Post-Wimbledon last year. In 2011 he took roughly 4200. So I would say a minimum of 2000 is probably correct, but realistically, Rafa needs about 4500+, already has 1,000 mind

I can't believe he's even worrying being No 1. He should be concentrating on keeping himself especially his knees in shape through the Hard court and Indoor season. Then it's a case of "Que Sera, Sera (Whatever Will Be, Will Be)".

^ But maybe he has to give himself little challengers to keep himself interested? I mean what else is there when he's won practically everything there is to win (some of them 8 times) and has a positive H2H against everyone apart from Davydenko (and spoil sport that Davydenko is he keeps ducking out so he can't play him)

It wouldn't be much fun just looking at his knees sadly and hitting tennis balls with no purpose...

I just found this short interview he gave at Montreal and at the end he says his Goal is to finish the season being healthy is his priority, which is what a agree with.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH2OW99-MNM

Does the number one ranking even mean anything any more?

Everyone knows that the two best players in the world right now when it really matters are Djokovic and Murray, grand slams matter the rest is just second best.

The Terror of Tylorstown wrote:Does the number one ranking even mean anything any more?

Everyone knows that the two best players in the world right now when it really matters are Djokovic and Murray, grand slams matter the rest is just second best.

So surely a man who has won a Grandslam more recently than Djokovic is pressing a claim to be as good as those top 2? If Nadal wins the USO beating Murray and Djokovic would he still not be in the "real" top 2 "when it really matters"?

The Terror of Tylorstown wrote:Does the number one ranking even mean anything any more?

Everyone knows that the two best players in the world right now when it really matters are Djokovic and Murray, grand slams matter the rest is just second best.

      

Incidentally, Djokovic thinks Nadal is the best player in the world currently. Oh, what tangled webs we weave

The Terror of Tylorstown wrote:Does the number one ranking even mean anything any more?

Everyone knows that the two best players in the world right now when it really matters are Djokovic and Murray, grand slams matter the rest is just second best.

The number one ranking as an achievement fluctuates in value depending on who holds it...

hawkeye wrote:

The Terror of Tylorstown wrote:Does the number one ranking even mean anything any more?

Everyone knows that the two best players in the world right now when it really matters are Djokovic and Murray, grand slams matter the rest is just second best.

The number one ranking as an achievement fluctuates in value depending on who holds it...

lol

So we could have a number 1 * at some point 

Riskysports wrote:

hawkeye wrote:

The Terror of Tylorstown wrote:Does the number one ranking even mean anything any more?

Everyone knows that the two best players in the world right now when it really matters are Djokovic and Murray, grand slams matter the rest is just second best.

The number one ranking as an achievement fluctuates in value depending on who holds it...

lol

So we could have a number 1 * at some point 

Yes exactly!  The value is also dependent on who does the valuation. Just a few weeks ago the value of the number one ranking was sky high according to British media sources... now the value has plummeted. But the real loss of value occurred in the number two ranking. At one point this ranking was considered almost as highly as the number one ranking but now it is just a meaningless number. In fact the whole ranking system is now in question as the title to this article suggests.

McEnroe: Murray will be the real world No 1 if Brit defends US Open crown

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/tennis/article-2397633/Andy-Murray-real-world-No-1-defends-US-Open-says-John-McEnroe.html