5 Things Novak Needs To Address

With 4 defeats in his last 5 slam finals and his number 1 ranking soon to depart, here are 5 things that I think Novak needs to address:

1. Slow starts. He has lost the first set in his last 6 slam finals. It is a regular occurrence throughout the season too.

2. The overhead smash. This has become a shot that is so costly to him. If they are not dumped into the net, they are hit right back at his opponent.

3. Rediscover the DTLBH. This made a couple of appearances last night but it has been missing for much of the season. The backhand wing overall has been problematic in recent month but without his main weapon, his whole game suffers.

4. Concentration. Particularly his tendency to suddenly produce a really poor service game out of the blue. Against the likes of Rafa and Andy, you have to work so hard to seize the momentum, he can't afford to just hand it back.

5. Net play. To his credit this has improved and he played some excellent volleys last night. His forehand volleys are still a bit of a lottery though and his judgement is often wrong too - he'll follow up on shots where he's certain to be passed but stay back on lofted returns that are just asking to be despatched.

I'll add a possible 6th too: fitness. He's still a monster but I do sense a decline in this area. At W and USO this year he had tough semi finals and I thought he looked a little weary in both finals. It's a definite step back from the heady days of AO12.

1) I agree, but I cant figure out why. He has played these guys so often, he really shouldnt be starting cold.

2) Im beginning to think young Nole has a depth perception problem. This has been a problem for so long that I cant think no one in his team has been able to think it needs work. His overhead smash isnt just poor for a tour level player, its poor full-stop.

3) It would have done a lot for him yesterday. Without it, he was forced to dance to Rafas tune, with no cognitive way of changing the beat.

4) Yeah, that was a tad disapointing. Imo, his concentration and his fitness are linked.

5) Dont agree with this point. His net play is pretty darn good now. He made some special plays. I think ultimately he is the worst volleyer of the big four, and at the lower end in the top ten. But his net game is better than anyone not named Tsonga, for mine.

6) Im now convinced that Nole was undergoing a placebo effect in 2011/12. Like I said on the other thread. I think after the 2012 AO final, Novak, with blood on his feet, and exhaustion brimming, that he has a ceiling. Its easy to think you have no limit when you arent pushed to your limits, but when you your boundaries are reached, the thoughts of going back are scary. Any weekend runner who has ever run an ultra-marathon will know what I mean. You have to ask yourself questions you didnt think a physical endevour would make you ask. Some will come back re-born from the race, while others will be more tentative about signing up for a repeat. I think Djokovic falls in the latter group.

There were lots of rallies last night where I thought a drop shot would have been judicious. His groundstokes became a bit predictable and too often continually trying to hit through Nadal resulted in an error. Lets be honest though, he was playing very well until he distatrously let Nadal back into the third set. Nadal was a bit tight at that point I thought and Djokovic made a poor tatical decision in going for his shots even more.

Good points, KR.

I think we'll have to agee to disagree on the net play! BH drop volleys are pretty good now. His grip hinders him on FH side. And I'd say any volley that isn't a cushioned drop shot is pretty inconsistent.

I think that's a good point about AO12. It was following that match that he started working on his net game and serve because he knew he had to have the option to shorten the points. It's also notable that he hasn't won a 5th set against Andy or Rafa since then!

I thought the biggest factor last night was the lack of DTLBH. Rafa was punching holes almost at will with his DTLFH forehand and Novak had no equivalent shot in his armoury. The few DTLBH he did hit were usually clean winners, so it's a big loss to him if he can't rely on it.

Easy to say now, though, isnt Andy? Nadal, tight or not, is hardly the sort of player you allow to self-destruct. Djokovic had to try finish him off. Didnt happen, as J-Mac would say.

In truth, even if Novak had won the third, I still think Rafa would have taken it in 5.

It was taking everything Novak had to hold on to the momentum and you could see that was taking a toll on his energy levels.

HM Murdoch wrote:In truth, even if Novak had won the third, I still think Rafa would have taken it in 5.

It was taking everything Novak had to hold on to the momentum and you could see that was taking a toll on his energy levels.

I disagree. his energy levels in the fourth would have been higher had he won the third, and Nadal's would have been less. Anyone who's been in a similar situation to Novak after the third knows that listlessness creeps in which is difficult to overcome.

Maybe but he would have lapsed in the 5th anyway. Nadal was an irresistible force last night, people may say Djokovic threw the 3rd set away but Nadal clawed it out of his grasp...the way he saved those 3 break points at 4-4 was quite something inc. a 125mph ace...his first of the match. When it comes to big points Nadal is nearly always rock solid. How many break points has he faced and saved this tournament?

You know I don't see a whole lot wrong with Djokovic's game. The main area of issue, if you can call it that, is his mind. His game is fine...it would have easily beat anyone else last night and I include Murray in that. You have to remember that Nadal is the perennial adapter, his game has come on and this makes some of Djokovic's previous play less effective. Petchey described some of this last night when discussing the change of ball striking and court positioning Nadal now has against Djokovic. He doesn't hang around his BH corner as much anymore to play the in/out FHs like he did, exposing the Djokovic DTLBH to his FH...he's there waiting much more now so when Djokovic goes to that shot he has to hit harder and nearer the lines...so misses more. His volley is vastly improved, his overhead you can't do much about I'm afraid at 26-27, it's an instinctive shot. For me it's his mind and tactics he has to work on, not his technique. For once, it's now Djokovic who has to prove he can evolve out there. It's easier said than done though...

I agree about it being the mind rather than game.

Tactically, I don't think Novak did an awful lot wrong last night either. When he hit his hot streak, you could see that his game still poses Rafa problems. Novak's inside out FH was looking like a very potent shot in that period.

The difference was that Novak was hot for about a set or so, but Rafa was hot for almost the whole game. Even 2011 Novak would have struggled against the performance Rafa produced.

The worry for Novak is how does he get the confidence back when he keeps losing these big matches?

When it comes to fitness, only Nadal (and perhaps Murray) makes Djokovic possibly look poor. anyone would have been exhausted yesterday against Nadal.
Concentration / focus is the main thing he has to improve on, specially on his own serve. would avoid him giving away easy points after spending a few rallies to earn one. one of the things that stroke me was that djokovic barely had one easy game when serving. that said, I thought he had the right mindset and tactics against Nadal. execution was erratic and it just all fell appart after the loss of the 3rd set.

whocares wrote: one of the things that stroke me was that djokovic barely had one easy game when serving.

I thought that too. He often seemed to be at 0-15 or 15-30 and having to play catch up.

A few other points:
Serving is becoming much less of an advantage now. Nadal has never relied on his serve for free points whearas Djokovic perhaps wasn't quite prepared for his serve to be so neutered. I would be interested to hear what others think about the lack of drop shots from Novak. I think that for his DTL backhand, Djokovic needs a very high ball, which is why you see it more on clay and when he plays Nadal.

Andy11 wrote: I would be interested to hear what others think about the lack of drop shots from Novak.  

The difficulty with this is that to be successful a) Rafa would need to be quite far back and b) Novak would need to be forward. Those two weren't in tandem that often. The length Rafa was getting on his shots was fantastic.

I seem to recall Novak hitting a couple of nice drop shots when the opportunity was there though.

Agreed HMM. Rafa stands nearer the baseline these days, particularly mid-ralley, dropping him is so risky when he's so fast and has good hands at the net. Didn't Novak try a couple of short balls early on anyway and Nadal mopped them up?

The other thing is that Nadal takes the ball much earlier now too, another testamount of the actual talent he has. Did you see that shot where Novak drilled a BH CC and Nadal played it almost half-volley for a FH winner down the line at 85mph...that's just ridiculous stuff on a faster HC surface. This is not easy to play against for anyone and Novak isn't quite as adaptive in my opinion, his game is a little more rigid. Did you see how much Nadal was slicing both sides, low FHs, high FHs, variable spins, etc. He gives you no rhythm and he recognised this was an issue vs Novak before. Novak needs to use more variety himself, his play is becoming predictable to Nadal who is starting to expect those CC boomer FHs, or DTLBHs. Yes Novak can cause Nadal problems when on top of his game and may get the odd win but 2011 is history now...a lot because of Nadal's ability to adapt and change his game. That's actually quite something...Novak needs to learn a thing or two from Nadal. My worry for Novak though is Wojtek Fibak. It smacks of copying Murray re: Lendl given Fibak coached Lendl. I think he'll try to get Novak attacking the net more but I'm not convinced this is the right tactic for Novak vs Nadal who is the best passer in the game bar none. But I can see why he wants to make Novak do it to vary his game and shorten ralleys. But bear in mind Novak is 27 next birthday, there is only so much you can change at this stage. Its got to be more about tactical changes vs Nadal...and right now I'm not sure what the answer is because Nadal is very smart and adept at countering just about any style of play.

Andy - serving is less important because surfaces have slowed...also faster isn't always better, it just means the ball comes back quicker with the good returners, this is why Nadal chooses not to serve at 130+ anymore. These days its all about the 1-2 punch...players are trained not to think of it as straight serving but what comes next. Novak and Nadal are the best 1-2 guys in the business.

HM Murdoch wrote:

Andy11 wrote: I would be interested to hear what others think about the lack of drop shots from Novak.  

The difficulty with this is that to be successful a) Rafa would need to be quite far back and b) Novak would need to be forward. Those two weren't in tandem that often. The length Rafa was getting on his shots was fantastic.

I seem to recall Novak hitting a couple of nice drop shots when the opportunity was there though.

Can't think of many riskier strategies than overusing the drop shot against Rafa!

lydian wrote: Its got to be more about tactical changes vs Nadal...and right now I'm not sure what the answer is because Nadal is very smart and adept at countering just about any style of play.

This is the conundrum.

The difference between the two in 2011 wasn't so much form as tactics. Rafa's usual patterns couldn't contain Novak's A-game.

In Rafa's case though, he could do what necessary to make it harder for Novak - he just wasn't! By that I mean he had the ability to come further forward, be more agressive, not camp out wide for the IOFH, but he stayed with the old ways probably by force of habit and probably thinking that Novak would drop back to his old level.

In Novak's case, there's no indication that he has another skill set waiting in the wings. His net play is clearly a work in progress and, whilst his serve is improved, I don't get the sense of it being a natural stroke to him. So it's tough to see where he goes tactically.

However...

I think the difference between them now is not the tactics but the mind and the confidence. Rafa's new tactics have neutralised the match up advantage but we saw last night that top form Novak still causes Rafa problems and challenges him like no other player.

Last night was an immense peformance from Rafa. Novak was not at his best and therefore he took a bit of a hammering.

But I think that if both players are at their best, their matches are won and lost in the mind. That's what I want Novak to work on. Get back to playing in the moment, concentrating on every point. Ride some confidence.

I wouldn't be surprised if Rafa also took a lot of confidence from the time he was out of the game and watched Roger take him out of Wimbledon, Andy at the US Open and then saw Andy beat him again at Wimbledon and just showed him he is not unbeatable

Agree with what Murdoch says about confidence. For about 40 minutes at the end of the 2nd set and start of the 3rd, Novak was superb. 2011 level superb. The game is there, but he's not in the frame of mind he has been before so he can't maintain it. Especially against a player like Rafa. Have you ever seen Novak complaining to his box as much as last night?

The lack of confidence must come from his results in the big matches against his big rivals in slams. Look at the recent results:

2012-FO-F - lost to Rafa
2012-Wim-SF - lost to Roger
2012-US-F - lost to Andy
2013-AO-F - beat Andy
2013-FO-SF - lost to Rafa
2013-Wim-F - lost to Andy

Winning 1 of your last 6 big matches must cause some mental damage. He's not human if that doesn't affect his confidence in big matches!

The way he played for that 40 minutes is the way forward, but you have to be supremely confident to execute that consistently. He had similar spells in the W final in sets 2 and 3, but again lost that momentum.

He'll be back though. He'll find a way to get back on top of these match ups. Momentum will swing between these great players again and again, like it has the last few years.

Tremendous match though. Hats off to both for some winderful entertainment.

I think you're right about the big slam matches, Danny. It's not just the results, a lot of those performances were below his best too.

He's losing some big moments because he's short on confidence and he's short on confidence because he's losing some big moments. It's a tough cycle to break!

I agree on that 40 minute period too. Best level I've seen from him since 2011. Hopefully that is something he can build on.

The best level he's played and only Rafa can bring that level out of him. The question is maintaining that when he's not playing Rafa.

lydian. I agree. Rafa and to a certain extent Roger bring out the very best in him. When Novak plays other players much as I like him as a personality his brand of tennis leaves me a little cold. It seems unrecognizable to the player on court last night. In a stange sort of way he has much to be grateful for. Sharing the spotlight puts it on him and he lives up to the star billing. And Novak appears to love nothing more than the spotlight...

I actually think its Rafa's game that brings out the aggressive Novak. With that heavy topspin he not only has a lot of balls right in the hit zone but also has a lot of the pace generated for him. He doesn't get that against others.

It's the movement and speed of both players that takes my breath away. And Rafa's ability on the defence to just get a racquet to the ball on the stretch and somehow get it back right to the baseline is a phenomenal skill.

Before their clash, their tournaments stats had Nadal with the same number of winners and far more forehand winners than Djokovic in less points played. For some reason though, the dynamics of their match-up has Djokovic as the much greater aggressor. Nole was nowhere near that aggressive against Wawrinka and played with much greater margin.

You miss the one area where Djokovic has his greatest problem nowadays: his Serve. It's not doing the damage it did from 2011, or even a good chunk of 2012. Especially his 2nd Serve. That's why he was broken so much in this US Open, and why he's been losing more often this whole year. His Forehand was never - and isn't now - in the Federer league. Even Nadal's Forehand does more damage more consistently than Djokovic's Forehand ever did. When Djokovic broke out in 2011 it wasn't his actual game that changed in any significant way. It was his fitness that changed considerably from what it was up to that point. Up until 2011, Djokovic would often become exhausted physically and it would translate into mentally surrendering. Remember - this was a guy who's Retired from every Major except the US Open. That's how bad it was. He used to quit matches in the middle of them more than any other player of his caliber. That's how Nadal used to beat him like a drum in long Best of Five matches. Prior to 2011, the H2H between Nadal/Djokovic was considerably in the Nadal favor, 16-7. The Djokovic fitness improvement meant to him that he knew he was now fully prepared to stay out there as long as it took. No more could Nadal just bludgeon his error free game into Djokovic fatiguing capitulation. Novak was now ready to outlast even Nadal, which is what happened in Miami 2011. And with the new found confidence, Djokovic scaled ridiculous heights: 3 Majors, 5 Masters 1000's and the YEC in one year. Hall of Fame stuff.

But that didn't last. By 2012, a few more of the tour players were on to his patterns, making for longer matches, even a few more losses. From March 2011 to January 2012, Djokovic was 7-0 vs. Nadal. From February 2012 to today, Nadal has won 6 of their last 7 matches. And in this year, the slow retrograde of the Djokovic 2011 continues, and he's closer to earth. It's basically more to do with overall fatigue than anything else. His feet are not getting him into position to make optimum hits like they did at his peak, that's why his error count shoots up. None of this is a surprise. Djokovic at root is a grinder from the back court. Eventually, that style - even for Djokovic - starts to wear on the body. After almost 3 full years of some sublime tennis, he's descent from that peak isn't something that's unprecedented, or even unexpected. He's the modern day Agassi - formidable from the baseline and a terror to beat when all the shots are locked tightly down. There's isn't anyplace to attack. But when leaks spring in that style of game - as is happening to Novak now - there isn't a Be All End All Killer Weapon Shot he can rely on to bail him out. That's what Federer can do with his Forehand; and to a lesser extent Nadal can too. Their FH's are of the caliber that it's a shot that will come back if it goes awry. Djokovic will still be formidable for a few more years. But his 2011 is something we won't see from him again.

Good points, I guess lot of things boils to pressure of being the no.1, I guess he gets more nervous these days and doesn't trust on his own abilities to win, he very quickly falls into sponge mode of defense than attack.

In the finals he was way to defensive in the 1st set and Rafa took it easy, in the 2nd set out of blue he got into aggressive mode and was hitting winners all corners and made Rafa look like a school boy and then aggression dropped again in the mid 3rd set but that may be due to lack of stamina left in the body.

So two vital things, get that stamina level back, and get into aggressive tennis like Fed if you want longevity and success.

Rafa is an unique breed, he alone can play his style and can have longevity as well, Nole can't be another Rafa, quicker he gets into aggresive mode of play consistently his body will be less weary.

At his peak Fed was easily able to play 5 setter coz they consumed very little energy of his.

antonico wrote: He's the modern day Agassi - formidable from the baseline and a terror to beat when all the shots are locked tightly down. There's isn't anyplace to attack. But when leaks spring in that style of game - as is happening to Novak now - there isn't a Be All End All Killer Weapon Shot he can rely on to bail him out.

Nicely put. I was thinking along similar lines as a I watched the final. The moment Rafa had a look down the line on his forehand, the rally was effectively over. He punched through with that shot so easily. Novak didn't appear to have an equivalent shot in the armoury. It used to be his DTLBH but recently that has only been making the occasional guest appearance!

He is just too nervous against Nadal and Andy now, Wawrinka even had his number for the first 3 sets this passive Novak will never get back to number 1 without injuries to his main rivals now, he's not as fast as before either. He couldnt believe his luck when he took the 2nd set, he was brimming with a surprised smile instead of being focused and determined. This is a very poor era, Novak will not win the AO at this rate.

Good observations. Some futher Nadal points affecting Novak:

+ Nadal is hitting to a much better length these days - his depth in 2011 was woeful at times, he was MiddleCourt Man for a while. He does this when he's lower on confidence and standing too far back. This has been a major change this year, he's just decided to go for it, stay nearer the baseline and stick to his aggressive game plan, so he's hitting shots much harder and deeper as a result. Its now much harder for Djokovic to hit those DTLBHs (or even winning CCBHs) off deeper balls.

+Nadal doesn't camp out in his FH corner as before waiting for the next CCFH he can play. He's much more wary of Novak's DTLBH so tends to push to his own BH side more often so he's not caught out as much. The error Nadal made up to end of 2011 was to play Novak as he played Roger. Big mistake and he's addressed that now.

+ Shotwise Nadal's FH DTL has been a revelation this year, he knew he needed to attack Djokovic's FH more and has developed this shot out of sight, it was always good but he couldn't produce it often under pressure before. Now he can,with alarming regularity to make it the best FH in the game. He now has other options than hitting CC to Djoko's BH all the time - and Novak is wary Nadal is going to hit this shot now so cant camp out in his own BH corner as before...all adds to the break up of rhythm.

+ Nadal has learnt to use effective BH and FH slices DTL himself much more to cut off options to Novak. Novak with his extreme grips doesn't like these shots and often gives Nadal a weaker midcourt ball to attack. These are subtle changes of mix up but add up to very different match dynamics now.

+ Djokovic doesn't seem to have the same confidence in his stamina.

I agree with what HMM said yesterday about not seeing where Novak can go to in responding to these various Nadal changes and restoration of confidence given his knee is much better. Unlike Nadal, Novak's style of play is much more rigid so I don't see him suddenly mixing it up more. For me, Nadal has inherently more variety and that mercurial X-Factor in being able to produce a lot more on the spur flair shots, i.e. things you just don't expect. Djokovic is much more predictable...increasingly so. It seems Djokovic has quite abit of head scratching to do.

lydian wrote:+ Nadal is hitting to a much better length these days - his depth in 2011 was woeful at times, he was MiddleCourt Man for a while. He does this when he's lower on confidence and standing too far back.

Yep, and the one time he played that way since 2011 (Monte Carlo this year) he took a battering.

Strangely, Novak seems to have the reverse problem - he's hitting long quite often, paticularly on the BH. I don't see that as match up problem because he's been doing it for some time now against all kinds of players. It must be technical?

One of the big differences in the 2nd set was Novak was hitting hard at a good lenth very consistently. The IOFH in particular was being hammered onto the lines and Rafa was struggling with it.

The more I think about it though, I don't particularly see Rafa has having a match up advantage. He's just neutralised the advantages he was giving Novak previously.

If you were to do design a tricky opponent for Rafa, you'd still pretty much come up with Novak (at his best) - excellent two handed backhand, western grip on the forehand, able to hit the ball on the rise, good movement, good fitness.

So I see it more as form and confidence. I'm certain that Rafa will eventually come down from the stunning level he is at now (everyone does). The question is can Novak raise his game from the relative slump it's in now?

Yeah, both Djokovic and Murray are theoretical bad matchups for Rafa with their ability to neutralise his Xcourt forehand and either put him under pressure DTL or attack deep to his forehand. The fact he has substantial H2H leads over both just shows what a tough match player he is.

From watching the final I was actually most impressed with Rafa's backhand. For all the talk of him having two forehands, its always been a relative weakness in that he struggles to create the pace on it to hit flat-out baseline winners. However, on Monday he was punishing anything vaguely short to that side. That's a massive improvement as it removes any get out of jail card against him.

1) Change his kinda dull hairstyle to something more jazzy.
2) Go back to his old school grunting like this @6.27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86OqeIyD9jI
3) cant think of anything else inappropriate to say
4) ...
5) ...

Born Slippy wrote:Yeah, both Djokovic and Murray are theoretical bad matchups for Rafa with their ability to neutralise his Xcourt forehand and either put him under pressure DTL or attack deep to his forehand. The fact he has substantial H2H leads over both just shows what a tough match player he is.

From watching the final I was actually most impressed with Rafa's backhand. For all the talk of him having two forehands, its always been a relative weakness in that he struggles to create the pace on it to hit flat-out baseline winners. However, on Monday he was punishing anything vaguely short to that side. That's a massive improvement as it removes any get out of jail card against him.

I think we have to wait until Murray and Nadal meet, to truly work out the current match up. It is nearly two years since they last met. It's still feasible that Murray at his best, playing with a bit more variety (a must!!) could beat Rafa

We're in danger of thinking he's unbeatable, in the same way we thought that about Novak two years ago

LuvSports! wrote:1) Change his kinda dull hairstyle to something more jazzy.
2) Go back to his old school grunting like this @6.27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86OqeIyD9jI
3) cant think of anything else inappropriate to say
4) ...
5)  ...

I'd have thought "Novak Kjokovic" might be one suggestion.

See, I've cracked the code now!

The big difference on Monday was the almost ridiculous control Nadal had. To be averaging five unforced errors a set, given the length he was producing, it was wearing on Novak.

There's one thing LK needs to address and that is watching the final itself!!

Bloody work!

banbrotam wrote:

I think we have to wait until Murray and Nadal meet, to truly work out the current match up. It is nearly two years since they last met. It's still feasible that Murray at his best, playing with a bit more variety (a must!!) could beat Rafa

Ahh banbrotam  with a bit of luck they won't meet for another two years and Murray will still have the theoretical beating of him...

HM Murdoch wrote:

LuvSports! wrote:1) Change his kinda dull hairstyle to something more jazzy.
2) Go back to his old school grunting like this @6.27 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86OqeIyD9jI
3) cant think of anything else inappropriate to say
4) ...
5)  ...

I'd have thought "Novak Kjokovic" might be one suggestion.

See, I've cracked the code now!

Don't get cocky young padawan! I sense great fear in you!
Or if you're chubby, "young padded one".

hehe that makes me chuckle, but no time to laugh about that now!!!

Others have pointed out the effectiveness of Djokovic's IOFH against Nadal. This was always my favourite Federer shot and in my opinion Federer should have used this shot way more against Nadal. He became far too predictable playing it crosscourt and Nadal was waiting for it.

hawkeye wrote:

banbrotam wrote:

I think we have to wait until Murray and Nadal meet, to truly work out the current match up. It is nearly two years since they last met. It's still feasible that Murray at his best, playing with a bit more variety (a must!!) could beat Rafa

Ahh banbrotam  with a bit of luck they won't meet for another two years and Murray will still have the theoretical beating of him...

Perfectly reasonable point from Banbrotam. We won't know until they play. If Rafa and Novak hadn't played since 2011 then the assumption would have been that Novak would be all over him, and it would have been wrong.

So what's the gist then, that Murray is now the likely equal of Nadal? That his best is just as good as, perhaps better than, Nadal's best? I don't buy that for a second.

Usain Bolt ran the 100m in 9.58. It took me at least 10 seconds to watch it!

Takes me a second or two to take a sentence in at this time of night. So I wouldn't buy it for a few seconds probably.

lydian wrote:So what's the gist then, that Murray is now the likely equal of Nadal? That his best is just as good as, perhaps better than, Nadal's best? I don't buy that for a second.

Nobody is saying that. My point is that over the last 18 months Murray has finally found a way to beat the best players in the big matches. But he hasn't played Rafa in that time. Rafa looks phenomenal right now, and different to 2 years ago. They both are different. Rafa would rightly be favourite if they met in Australia, but that match up can only really be judged when they meet.

Djoko has an envelope full of prize money - he needs to address it...to me.
 
Crap joke, but it's been in my head for 2 days.

lydian wrote:So what's the gist then, that Murray is now the likely equal of Nadal? That his best is just as good as, perhaps better than, Nadal's best? I don't buy that for a second.

Ridiculous case of taking my comment and doing the equivalent of taking two and two and getting seven.

Some may not like it, but it could (and please respect that emphasis) be the case that Andy Murray, playing at his best is sufficiently skilled to beat Nadal.

I'm sorry, that this is sacrilege to all those who still think he's some kind of hopeless pusher, who got lucky / or hasn't played a decent game since 2010, but there you have it

This of course also means that Nadal could beat Murray, i.e. my comment had no hint of certainty in it, which appears to have been missed by some. But we also get too carried away over dominance. Two years ago some were stating that Novak could never be stopped, i.e. Rafa isn't superman, as Wimbledon showed up big and proper

But sorry, I now realise that the possibility of the World No.3 beating the World No.2, at Aus, when they have a slam 2-2 record on hard courts, is a ludricous thought  

Lol, lets not get into those 2 HC slams wins hey...
Hell will freeze over before I believe Murray is anywhere near the equal of Nadal.
Sure he may get the odd win, that happens, but I have no doubt who the better all round player is.

What are you talking about with "equal of Nadal"?? Is anyone here saying he will win 13 slams?!

  I know it's hard to be objective about someone you describe as lucky, anti-tennis, and someone who has 'sold his tennis soul'.... But when people say "we'll have to see how they match up when they meet" or "its possible that Murray could beat Rafa" can't you just take it at face value?

lydian wrote:Lol, lets not get into those 2 HC slams wins hey...

I agree Rafa's Australian one in 2007, was against the then puny and immature Murray and then in 2011 at the US, Andy barely turned up. I assume you mean those two wins?  

lydian wrote:Hell will freeze over before I believe Murray is anywhere near the equal of Nadal.

Depends what you mean on equal. If you mean two and half months ago, some would say he was. If you mean taking their history in the game and comparing then, no. Can you give some relativity, please. After all Wawrinka is now the equal (or very near it) of Roger, but we're not saying that means he's now the GOAT!!

lydian wrote:Sure he may get the odd win, that happens, but I have no doubt who the better all round player is.

And who has? Based on current form and history?
You write as though the like of CC, Danny etc and myself are some dewey eyed fans who think Murray is the greatest of all time. We've stated many times, he's achieved (indeed more for me) what we wanted him to do. Just because one of us says that he might beat Nadal, doesn't mean to say he's potential the GOAT!!

The H2H is 5-3 to Murray on hard court since his first win. The last set they played on hard court was probably the most one-sided set between two top 10 players this millenium. Rafa's three wins were in a howling gale, on a final set tiebreak and when Murray probably played the worst tactical match of his career. I'm struggling to see how anyone could argue a hard court match is anything other than finely balanced. Rafa required Novak to be slightly off his game to best him on a hard court (still a great performance as previously an average Novak would probably have edged it) and he probably requires the same against Murray.

Born Slippy wrote:The H2H is 5-3 to Murray on hard court since his first win. The last set they played on hard court was probably the most one-sided set between two top 10 players this millenium. Rafa's three wins were in a howling gale, on a final set tiebreak and when Murray probably played the worst tactical match of his career. I'm struggling to see how anyone could argue a hard court match is anything other than finely balanced. Rafa required Novak to be slightly off his game to best him on a hard court (still a great performance as previously an average Novak would probably have edged it) and he probably requires the same against Murray.

It's really 4-4. It's unfair to include the Miami walkover of last year and you've missed off the US Open win for Rafa

But your points are fair or at least just as reasoned as those making out that Nadal would beat Murray 9 times out of 10 on Hard Courts

Obviously I didnt include a walkover. Perhaps grammatically I should have phrased my comment slightly differently as i was including US08. If I've missed a hard court win for Rafa since US08 I apologise but I definitely did not omit US11.