5 Things Novak Needs To Address

First topic message reminder :

With 4 defeats in his last 5 slam finals and his number 1 ranking soon to depart, here are 5 things that I think Novak needs to address:

1. Slow starts. He has lost the first set in his last 6 slam finals. It is a regular occurrence throughout the season too.

2. The overhead smash. This has become a shot that is so costly to him. If they are not dumped into the net, they are hit right back at his opponent.

3. Rediscover the DTLBH. This made a couple of appearances last night but it has been missing for much of the season. The backhand wing overall has been problematic in recent month but without his main weapon, his whole game suffers.

4. Concentration. Particularly his tendency to suddenly produce a really poor service game out of the blue. Against the likes of Rafa and Andy, you have to work so hard to seize the momentum, he can't afford to just hand it back.

5. Net play. To his credit this has improved and he played some excellent volleys last night. His forehand volleys are still a bit of a lottery though and his judgement is often wrong too - he'll follow up on shots where he's certain to be passed but stay back on lofted returns that are just asking to be despatched.

I'll add a possible 6th too: fitness. He's still a monster but I do sense a decline in this area. At W and USO this year he had tough semi finals and I thought he looked a little weary in both finals. It's a definite step back from the heady days of AO12.

I think Murray can beat Nadal and probably will sometime next season. However, if I had to put money on any match between them, the only time I'd consider betting on Murray would be at Wimbledon

Don't disagree

But your view (thank goodness!!) is a million miles from the laughing some people do at the thought of Murray beating Rafa

Surely it depends on the odds? If you are saying at 50:50 odds you would bet on Murray to beat Rafa on grass then I probably wouldn't be with you.

However, I suspect that the next time they play on hard Rafa will be a reasonably big favourite. If so, I'd then back Murray.

There are some that are as anti Murray as they are pro Rafa, hence that type of view. There is also a far larger number that always base what will happen in the future on what has just happened in the recent past.

Someone mentioned it earlier, but in 2011 when Novak looked almost unbeatable, there was a similar popular belief that Novak was miles ahead and always will be.

The fact is it changes, and over recent years has changed pretty often. 2010 was Rafa's year to be untouchable. Novak was in 2011. Murray had an amazing 12 months, and now Rafa looks at the peak of his powers.

Each spell had been followed by "I think Novak/Murray/Rafa has the measure of everyone now and will dominate" said by a few or many .... But the landscape has always changed. And it will likely change again.

Danny_1982 wrote:Murray had an amazing 12 months............
Each spell had been followed by "I think Novak/Murray/Rafa has the measure of everyone now and will dominate" said by a few or many .... But the landscape has always changed. And it will likely change again.

I'd leave the country if I were you Danny for three good reasons

1) You're not allowed to say that Andy had 12 good months. This is because he didn't play as well as 2008 (or is 2009)  
2) You are never allowed to put Andy in with the same sequence as Rafa/Novak/Roger (or their associated names) unless they are all playing like Roger is now  
3) You, by implication, have suggested that Andy might be in the same category as the current day Novak and Rafa. This is never allowed  

Run! Run! Run, while you can

Glad we got that sorted

Danny_1982 wrote:

Each spell had been followed by "I think Novak/Murray/Rafa has the measure of everyone now and will dominate" said by a few or many .... But the landscape has always changed. And it will likely change again.

But Rafa regularly does have periods of domination . By that I mean going through a period when they look unbeatable. You know the sort of thing sweeping up all the trophies in the clay court swing, winning RG and then Wimbledon or sweeping up all the trophies in the American Hard court swing and then winning the US Open or entering 13 events and winning 10 or being virtually unbeaten on one surface denying a whole generation the opportunity to get even close to a clay court trophy. Roger has done a little of this too  And Djokovic had a period of dominance in 2011 but he didn't get his "holy grail" so that wasn't perhaps the same...

They have all had periods when they have have looked unbeatable. But I would say Rafa more than most. But the good thing for other players is that Rafa will lose and probably in the next few weeks. Someone will get lucky and end his streak. It could be a Darcis or it could be to Djokovic or it could even be to Murray. Whoever gets a win against him will be able to dine out on it and speculation will be that they have worked out how to beat him. But the odd loss won't change the dynamics and chances are Rafa will get over it as he always does and continue to be a dominant player until age or injury finally get the better of him.

Like him or not Murray just isn't in the same category. Sometime I think his fans who try to say he is are just being provocative and fairy stories about what might happen in the future are just that fairy stories. There will be other players that will dominate in the future but just like players from now and the past they will be recognizable from an early age.

Anyway isn't this supposed to be about what Novak needs to do? I would say he should stick around and continue to do what he has been doing...

hawkeye wrote:But Rafa regularly does have periods of domination . By that I mean going through a period when they look unbeatable. You know the sort of thing sweeping up all the trophies in the clay court swing, winning RG and then Wimbledon or sweeping up all the trophies in the American Hard court swing and then winning the US Open or entering 13 events and winning 10 or being virtually unbeaten on one surface denying a whole generation the opportunity to get even close to a clay court trophy. Roger has done a little of this too  And Djokovic had a period of dominance in 2011 but he didn't get his "holy grail" so that wasn't perhaps the same...

This starts well. Now the fun starts.............  

hawkeye wrote:They have all had periods when they have have looked unbeatable. But I would say Rafa more than most. But the good thing for other players is that Rafa will lose and probably in the next few weeks. Someone will get lucky and end his streak. It could be a Darcis or it could be to Djokovic or it could even be to Murray.

So even the winner of two of the last four slams he entered might beat Rafa. It's good to know!!

hawkeye wrote:Like him or not Murray just isn't in the same category. Sometime I think his fans who try to say he is are just being provocative and fairy stories about what might happen in the future are just that fairy stories.

This is the truly fun part. Yet again, we have goalpost changing. I mean what category are we talking about? All time legend one? (that Rafa is in). Well HE name me one Murray fan who has said that the Scot should be in that. Or are we talking about ending Rafa's run / or beating him at the Aus Open? If so, how the possibility of the finalist of three of the last four Aus slams, beating Rafa at the next one, seen as a "fairy story", Or "provocative"?

hawkeye wrote:There will be other players that will dominate in the future but just like players from now and the past they will be recognizable from an early age.

What like Roger? Who was described as Switzerland's answer to Tim Henman when he lost to Nalbandian at AO'03  

Murray may have to play a future great tomorrow. Croatia have selected 16 year old Borna Coric to play him.

banbrotam. Murray is in a large category of players who could beat Rafa.

Right, this "same category" nonsense.... In the all time greats list, Murray is not near Rafa or Roger. Or even Novak.

From 2006 to 2011 Murray was not in the same category as the guys winning slams. Simply because he wasn't winning them.

However.... the 2012/2013 slam results shows:
Nadal 3 wins, 1 RU
Murray 2 wins, 2 RU
Novak 2 wins, 4 RU
Roger 1 win, 0 RU

Therefore, and I want to be absolutely clear about this, in terms of the last two years, Murray is in the same category as the players around him.

However, that does not mean he is a GOAT, that does not mean his legacy is greater or comparable to Rafa or Roger and it does not mean he has an entire career comparable to Rafa or Roger... It just means that IN THE LAST TWO YEARS... Murray has reached a level comparable to anyone in the game on the men's side.

banbrotam wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:Murray had an amazing 12 months............
Each spell had been followed by "I think Novak/Murray/Rafa has the measure of everyone now and will dominate" said by a few or many .... But the landscape has always changed. And it will likely change again.

I'd leave the country if I were you Danny for three good reasons

1) You're not allowed to say that Andy had 12 good months. This is because he didn't play as well as 2008 (or is 2009)  
2) You are never allowed to put Andy in with the same sequence as Rafa/Novak/Roger (or their associated names) unless they are all playing like Roger is now  
3) You, by implication, have suggested that Andy might be in the same category as the current day Novak and Rafa. This is never allowed  

Run! Run! Run, while you can

Flight booked.

banbrotam wrote:Run! Run! Run, while you can

Danny doesn't run from anyone. The only think he escapes from are crimes scenes and even then he casually strolls away.

He mad, bad and dangerous to know.

Incorrect Murdoch.

I swagger away from crime scenes. With a cigarette in my mouth, and a bottle of whiskey in my hand.

Danny_1982 wrote:Incorrect Murdoch.

I swagger away from crime scenes. With a cigarette in my mouth, and a bottle of whiskey in my hand.

Whistling 'The Bells Are Ringing'.

Wow this is he or isn't he thing with Andy is certainly the hot topic on the board. For me there seems to be an element of confusion with what is being said.

Rafa V2.0 is looking like dominating again and now some are looking at Roger's record and maybe thinking Rafa could surpass it. McEnroe himself has changed his mind yet again on this!

Murray fans are simply at the moment stating their position that Andy has had a stunning 12 months to which he has from a Slam perspective. 2 Slams OG and a Masters title to name a few. He has certainly a good record on Grass at this moment in time. That said the tennis world hasn't ended and Andy has hard work to be carried out on his legacy to get even into Djokovic's league let alone the dizzy heights of the true greats.

I can't see one Murray fan who think's Andy is in their bracket at this exact moment in time. The last year he has put himself in a position to kick on and win more. Will he however be like Lleyton who won the US Open and Wimbledon in 12 months before succumbing to loss of form and injuries and remembered as 'gee wasn't he good for a little while' or will he go on and win more and dare I say even dominate?

All this nonsense that Andy won without Roger or Rafa. I mean let's throw everything up there. Rafa couldn't win on Grass until Roger was knackered and Roger couldn't win RG until Rafa wasn't there. The list could be endless with * slam winners.

Andy needs consistency and even if he were to dominate in a brief spell the question will always be what was he doing between 2008-2011 and why did it take him so long to kick on or just get fitter. Simply the field has weakened and it would take a bias fan to think otherwise. Like Rafa and Novak waited for Federer's powers to decline, Andy has done so in the same vein. It is nothing new. Just how it has always been in tennis.

Can we stop this war on Andy from both sides.

Was Fed "knackered" in 2008? I agree with the gist of what you said but IMO that was a peak Federer that Rafa beat in the final

I can think of a few Federer fans who would disagree and plus that was 'mono' Federer he beat in 2008

legendkillarV2 wrote:Rafa V2.0 is looking like dominating again

I think we must be onto about Rafa v4.0 by now!

That's the one that comes with built-in AntiNovak software and enhanced hard court compatability.

OK, but Fed didn't drop a set prior to that final. Fair enough about the mono, I'd forgotten that. Bizarrely common on the tour

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:Rafa V2.0 is looking like dominating again

I think we must be onto about Rafa v4.0 by now!

That's the one that comes with built-in AntiNovak software and enhanced hard court compatability.

There have been so many versions!

This one looks the scariest because he has no tape on the knees and a mean hair cut!

I think people underestimate the new haircut. My Mrs noticed during the final that he was a bit cleaner looking as there wasn't quite as much sweaty hair. I think this distracted Novak a few times and then BANG!!!! forehand down the line.

Bottom line is that Novak, and Andy for that matter, need new haircuts. It's the only way to compete.

Novak is like Samson. If his haircut changes in the slightest, he loses his powers. This year's form is a direct result of him trimming the sides shorter than the top.

^ Nah! Didn't Novak go on his career defining run after having all his hair shaved off (along with his team mates) after winning the Davis Cup. If I remember correctly it appeared to have all grown back in a matter of weeks. As far as hair goes Nole is the goat

Some match ups, like Nadal v Federer and Nadal v Djokovic and maybe Federer v Djokovic and certainly Murray v Djokovic have been done to death, maybe Murray v Federer as well.

Murray v Nadal is really in need of some more matches, the least seen matchup in recent years.

I do not know that Novak needs to address anything all that specific other than get himself back to 2011 levels somehow.  In its core (and in spite of some improvements in some areas), his game has not changed all that much since the time he won AO08 - not counting his disastrous serving intermezzo in between.

The main difference between 2011 Novak and 2008 Novak was that 2011 Novak was made of steel; which helped to carry him through the matches he would not have won in 2008.  He has now dropped from his 2011 level a bit and the biggest question is whether or not he can go back there.  In other words, was 2011 his true best level that he needs to rediscover or was it just a longish purple patch?  At this point, I am inclined to think that his current level is his true level and 2011 was just a one-off.  His 2013 was not all that bad - in fact, his slam results were identical to 2012 - one win, two finals and one semifinal - which also suggests that he seems to have found a sort of stable level at which he can play.

2011 was a freak. Not because of the levels of his tennis (which he has hit on occasion subsequently) but because of the complete lack of doubt in his mind. The confidence levels were sky high and the form barely dipped as a result. Rafa seems to be experiencing something similar now - he often attributes his great form to feeling confident on court.

I don't see Novak hitting 2011 levels again. He's too emotional a character and too temperamentally prone to doubt.

I do think he can improve from where he is currently at though. He can't keep losing every big moment against the top guys. Surely, just by the law of averages, a close moment will go his way eventually?!

This has always been a bit controversial here but I've never believed in Djokovic version 2.0. I reckon that Djokovic has always played at a consistent high level. He wins some and loses some. In 2011 things just fell into place a little more for him and a lot of that had to do with how he managed to intimidate Nadal mentally.

It started back in IW that year when Nadal was in control of the match before Djokovic took it and then again the same thing happened in Miami. So by the time the clay Masters came (again with little time between) Nadal looked spooked when facing Djokovic in the final before he had hit a ball. That made his wins there a lot easier. And then of course Nadal was well and truly spooked for the rest of 2011. Not only that but Djokovic went into all of his matches with a swagger and his opponents had a little more doubts than usual because it was "Djokovic 2.0" they believed they were facing and not the everyday Djokovic (Not that the everyday Djokovic can't be scary). That is what made the difference rather than any change to his play. For example I believe Djokovic played better in the 2010 US Open final when he lost to Nadal than he did in the 2011 final when he won.

Djokovic doesn't need to greatly alter anything but I doubt he will ever regain that mental edge he had over Nadal in 2011. To beat Nadal he will have to rely on his tennis skills. They are good enough to get the job done but as their H2H shows Nadal has the edge and he will have to play at his very best to get a win. I'm sure he will try

The head to head is an interesting one. It's currently 22-15 and stretching in Rafa's favour.

A couple of Novak victories in a row though and it will be 22-17 and starting to look much closer again.

I'm going to put this out there: if they meet before the WTF, Novak will win. He's lost his chance of #1, it's not a slam, so I think he will play without pressure. Plus he'll really want the win and will be pumped for it. I imagine that the rest of the season might be a bit of chore for Rafa. After all he's accomplished in the last few weeks, it must he hard to motivate yourself for a trek round Asian hard courts.

Rafa's won the war this year but I think Novak will win some remaining skirmishes.

Yeah I agree with that Murdoch. I wouldn't be surprised if the top 3 are all a little flat before the WTF. They've all got big trophies on the shelf and are bound to be fatigued and carrying knocks.

Off topic, my fiancé got us tickets for the second day of the WTF, day and night sessions. I'm hoping that there is a 'group of death' and it happens to be that day. In an ideal world I want to see Federer v Delpo during the day, and Murray v Rafa/Novak during the night session.

HM Murdoch wrote:The head to head is an interesting one. It's currently 22-15 and stretching in Rafa's favour.

A couple of Novak victories in a row though and it will be 22-17 and starting to look much closer again.

I'm going to put this out there: if they meet before the WTF, Novak will win. He's lost his chance of #1, it's not a slam, so I think he will play without pressure. Plus he'll really want the win and will be pumped for it. I imagine that the rest of the season might be a bit of chore for Rafa. After all he's accomplished in the last few weeks, it must he hard to motivate yourself for a trek round Asian hard courts.

Rafa's won the war this year but I think Novak will win some remaining skirmishes.

issue with that is, if they are to meet before the WTFs it will have to be in the final, so Rafa would have to get there when he might be a bit flat

I just read this comment from Novak following his win over Vedasco today, which included a second set loss:

"It was a lack of concentration from my side. I had some chances at the start of the second set, and I managed to allow him to come back into the match and start playing well."

Looks like point 4 is still a work in progress!

We can file this quote alongside the one from Rome:
"I lost concentration. I started playing more defensively, played a bad game at 5-3 and the match turned around."

And Indian Wells:
"His fighting spirit and my lack of concentration. I just I didn't deserve to win today. You know, whenever I had chances, second, third set, I throw them away with some unforced errors."