Are Worcester Warriors doomed?

If we work on the premise that most appeared to think was sound pre season, that London Irish, Newcastle Falcons and Worcester Warriors are this season relegation candidates, is it fair to say that Worcester are in serious trouble already at this early stage of the season.

They currently sit bottom of the table, having lost 5 out of 5 games, and only picked up two losing bonus points. That puts them 6 points adrift of the 11th placed team, who play tomorrow, which could see them even further behind when the weekend ends.

As far as I am aware they are not suffering with an extensive injury list at present, and most worryingly for them, they have been beaten at home by both of the other supposed relegation candidates. Whislt I would imagine neutral observors may say that Falcons might grind out some points, particularly at home, and Irish have try scoring ability and can pick up points that way, it is difficult to see where Worcester are going to get the points from to enable themselves to climb the table.

So the question is, are they doomed already, or is Dean Ryan as some proclaimed pre season, too good a coach to take them down?

They got hit with a nasty double whammy today, losing against Falcons and with Irish beating Harlequins. Wasps have had injury problems and were very unlucky not to beat Quins with a lot of players missing. Exeter, I think have too much quality. Come the end of the season I think it will be either Newcastle or Worcester to go down...and you're right the fact that they've lost at home to two relegation rivals puts them in a particularly poor place. They would be my favourites to go down, slightly edging Newcastle.

They've been languishing around the bottom spot for years and haven't really added much to the Premiership. Bristol IMO, could offer a lot more. They have a larger playing base, it's a better location for away fans and travel links, and now they have a sugar daddy. Sale are another doomed to go down... Bedford being the probable replacement.

Just looked back at the last 10 years of Premiership Rugby.  Worcester's best season was 2005-2006 where they finished 8th in the league.  Since then, Worcester have finished 10th twice, 11th thrice, 12th (and relegated) once.  One could argue a bad run of luck.  Or a club not really a Premiership level club, more of a Championship club over-reaching.  

Looking at the last 10 clubs to be relegated, the best record by a relegated club was Harlequins in 2004-2005.  They had 6 wins, 1 draw, 15 losses for 38 points.  Next best were 2006-2007 Saints, 6-1-15 for 33 points and 2011-2012 Newcastle at 6-2-14 for 32 points.  The worst was Rotherham in 2003-2004 with no wins and 3 total points.  

For the sake of discussion let's use 6 wins as the number to probably be out of hot water, but 7 wins as the key number to virtually guarantee relegation is avoided.  

Sale, despite their decent second half performance last season, London Irish, Newcastle, and Worcester were the pre-season favourites for relegation.  Sale has 3 wins/13 points and is well on the way to safety.  London Irish, with their big win against Quins, and Newcastle are both 2-0-3 and 9 points.  Its a long season, but both have positioned themselves well for the battle to stay up.  Worcester, unfortunately, are 0-0-5 with 2 points.  This means they have 17 matches to gain the 6 or 7 wins.  A somewhat surprise member of the relegation-possible club are Wasps at 1-0-4 and 9 points.  

I mention this not to predict doom on Worcester, rather to provide targets through the season for clubs to achieve.  To me, its an honour to have an owner like Cecil Duckworth in the Premiership.  Would be a shame to lose him and his club which looks more and more like that little engine that could (but maybe not forever).  Good luck to him.

Good analysis doc. For me it is difficult to see where Worcester will get the 6 or 7 wins required. They will need to pick up most of those at home you would assume, and have already lost 3 times at Sixways. I agree with you that it would be a shame for them and in particular Cecil Duckworth if they were to be relegated, but ultimately I think they are going to struggle to avoid that fate this season.

I can't see Worcester staying up. Dean Ryan in my mind is an overrated coach and the man he replaced a much underrated one. Ryan should be benefiting from the more experienced squad Worcester have put together where Hill was told to bring through young players.

This season their defence looks worse, they are conceding penalties like no one else and there's next to nothing in attack other than individual pieces of skill from the backline. They'll be swapping with Bristol at the end of the season.

If you look at Sale who many have tipped for the drop. They also have injuries but at the same time they are so committed in defence are pushing the boundaries of the laws but are far more savvy when choosing when to do so and in attack they have a clear game plan that is getting them tries. Good base from the lineout and scrum as well.

The Saint wrote:. Sale are another doomed to go down

Well you kept saying that last season. In fact we had a bet on it, which instead of paying up and writing a glowing piece about the competetiveness of the AP - you chose to change User ID.

As to Worcester - well they are really struggling right now, yet I still feel their squad is better than LI or Falcons, so we shall see. It will be very hard for them to turn this around - but not impossible. Sale did it last season.

LT I think the LI squad is a bit underrated and some of the new guys are stepping up well - injuries will be key as the small size of the squad is a concern.

Worcester have got some Argentineans to come in, including Creevy the hooker. That'll help but I can't see it being enough unless a Steve Diamond esque figure emerges to take control of the Worcester side and bring in a feasible game plan.

LondonTiger wrote:

The Saint wrote:. Sale are another doomed to go down

Well you kept saying that last season. In fact we had a bet on it, which instead of paying up and writing a glowing piece about the competetiveness of the AP - you chose to change User ID.

As to Worcester - well they are really struggling right now, yet I still feel their squad is better than LI or Falcons, so we shall see. It will be very hard for them to turn this around - but not impossible. Sale did it last season.

I don't remember placing a bet on it, but yes, they were my favourites to go down. Didn't it take a points deduction of London Welsh to save them? So it wasn't the worst shout in the world was it?

LI have a better squad, not so sure about Falcons. But they were clearly too good for the championship.

The London Welsh points deduction had not real impact on Sale. Sale had a good second half last season, and finished with 7 wins,in 10th place, despite their terrible start to the season. London Welsh had 5 wins total, but the last win was in the final match of the season when relegation was already decided. Interestingly, that last win was against Worcester, who finished in 11th place.

Though it pains me to say it, for me the answer is yes. Before the season began I looked long and hard at where we might win games, and there were precious few. Two have now gone.
Yesterday we were absolutely terrible. Falcons were poor, but we were dire. It was the worst rugby that I have seen for years, and for me the entire game was that of a low standard Championship match. Yes we have some Argies to come in - Creevy, Gonzale and Senatore, and we are badly missing James Percival. That will be a change to half of our pack and give us a good spine. But good enough to worry the better clubs? I don't think so.
Also, ours is a team that cannot, absolutely cannot, win away from home. Therefore I am guessing that Falcons and Irish (our main relegation contenders) will secure another four points each from us later in the season.
Our only winnable games now are Wasps at home, and possibly we may turn over the two inconsistent teams of the prem, Sale and Gloucester, but only if they really do forget to turn up, and are totally complacent.
Will these possible (and unlikely) three wins be enough to keep us up? No.
Do we deserve to stay up? No.
Will it be easy for us to bounce back up? No.

Having watched Newcastle, I think that they will struggle to win many more than one more match (against guess who?). But that will still be enough for them to stay up. That being said, I thought that Irish were dire against us (good enough defence to still beat us), and yet they have just turned over Quins.

My thoughts are these: I think Irish and Wasps will fight it out for 9th and 10th; Falcons and Worcester for 11th and 12th, with us just getting the booby prize.

Apologies for the doom and gloom, but yesterday really was dire. How can you win a game with no front row, no kicker, no defence and no organisation?

Is this another Rotherham Titans' season where the relegation battle is over before it even starts?

tooboredtowork wrote:Though it pains me to say it, for me the answer is yes. Before the season began I looked long and hard at where we might win games, and there were precious few. Two have now gone.
Yesterday we were absolutely terrible. Falcons were poor, but we were dire. It was the worst rugby that I have seen for years, and for me the entire game was that of a low standard Championship match. Yes we have some Argies to come in - Creevy, Gonzale and Senatore, and we are badly missing James Percival. That will be a change to half of our pack and give us a good spine. But good enough to worry the better clubs? I don't think so.
Also, ours is a team that cannot, absolutely cannot, win away from home. Therefore I am guessing that Falcons and Irish (our main relegation contenders) will secure another four points each from us later in the season.
Our only winnable games now are Wasps at home, and possibly we may turn over the two inconsistent teams of the prem, Sale and Gloucester, but only if they really do forget to turn up, and are totally complacent.
Will these possible (and unlikely) three wins be enough to keep us up? No.
Do we deserve to stay up? No.
Will it be easy for us to bounce back up? No.

Having watched Newcastle, I think that they will struggle to win many more than one more match (against guess who?). But that will still be enough for them to stay up. That being said, I thought that Irish were dire against us (good enough defence to still beat us), and yet they have just turned over Quins.

My thoughts are these: I think Irish and Wasps will fight it out for 9th and 10th; Falcons and Worcester for 11th and 12th, with us just getting the booby prize.

Apologies for the doom and gloom, but yesterday really was dire. How can you win a game with no front row, no kicker, no defence and no organisation?

I feel a bit like that too and I think you're probably right - Wuss will probably be the ones who just miss out. That said, as an optimistic soul, there is a small part of me that is hopeful that things may yet click and better performances could be just round the corner... There certainly need to be better performances because two potentially winnable matches have been allowed to slip away. If Wuss were to be relegated though I do think they would have the resources to bounce back stronger and perhaps time and rebuilding is what is needed for a more competitive team.

Pot Hale wrote:Is this another Rotherham Titans' season where the relegation battle is over before it even starts?

Hopefully not. Sale got through it last season after starting so poorly. But the odds continue to mount against each game.

The Saint wrote:They've been languishing around the bottom spot for years and haven't really added much to the Premiership. Bristol IMO, could offer a lot more. They have a larger playing base, it's a better location for away fans and travel links, and now they have a sugar daddy. Sale are another doomed to go down... Bedford being the probable replacement.

I think you should check Bedford's results, and the Championship table.


They have lost a few key players this season, plus I don't think they have as many dual registered Sarries players as they have in previous seasons.

LW and Bris (+ Rotherham potentially) to be the promotion contenders. Worc need to start winning at home at the very least.

The Saint wrote:. Sale are another doomed to go down...  

I find this interesting, how can a team that won the 2005-06 and finish double figures points above the relegated team consistently be doomed to failure? Look at the table histories. We had an awful season last season, but that is not the normal Sale. This season we seem much more like our normal selves, never going to set the world alight but strong and steady. I expect to see us end mid table, not near the relegation battle but also not near the HC (or whatever replaces it) spots.

In all honesty it is mere speculation at this point.

If Worcester can improve at home and pick up a couple of away wins (they do seem to have a terrible away record) then they can stay up.

1 crucial win for Worcester and it's game on as the teams above them are not that out of reach.

The Irish and Falcons game were tight yet they have been well beaten in the other games, imo it doesn't look good for them at this point.

Would they have been better off keeping Richard Hill?

LW seem to be doing rather well whilst Bristol, despite all the money and coachign additions aren't really hitting their straps

munkian wrote:LW seem to be doing rather well whilst Bristol, despite all the money and coachign additions aren't really hitting their straps

Bristol are a young team and I'm sure they'll get better as the season goes on.

Enough to be promoted ?

munkian wrote:Enough to be promoted ?

Hmmm?

I think they need a couple more old heads out on the field for that to happen.

Scrumpy wrote:

munkian wrote:Enough to be promoted ?

Hmmm?

I think they need a couple more old heads out on the field for that to happen.

I only mentioned Bristol as someone mentioned they could be in contention

The Saint wrote:They've been languishing around the bottom spot for years and haven't really added much to the Premiership. Bristol IMO, could offer a lot more. They have a larger playing base, it's a better location for away fans and travel links, and now they have a sugar daddy. Sale are another doomed to go down... Bedford being the probable replacement.

Bedford wont be going up any time soon, they were comprehensibly beaten by Bristol yesterday and just aren't good enough to feature in the Prem

London Welsh will rise from the ashes of relegation and reclaim their rightful place amongst England upper echelons

 

I like the Pirates to come up Arrrr.

It's way too early for judgements about the Championship. There isn't a Falcons equivalent this year but by the end of last season teams were genuinely testing them and it was seriously squeaky bum time in the some of the play offs. It is normal for the regular contenders to improve through the season as many of them go through squad changes over the summer and it isn't easy to find quality players to replace them.

If you look at the current top 6 they're pretty much the likely contenders with maybe 1 exception but wouldn't like to guess which will go up.

As to the OP, Wuss were better under Richard Hill. They were unlucky with a few results and were rarely taken to the cleaners. Not a Dean Ryan fan.

Wuss will be a very different side with Creevy and Senatore arriving. The European break comes at a perfect time for them - a chance to pick up a couple of wins and a distraction from the Premiership. I think it is too early to say they are relegation fodder for sure - I predict that this league will be the closest it has ever been. Although, Wuss aside, these clubs all look better than last season, I still think Newcastle, Irish, Wasps and possibly even Sale will be worrying about their final destiny.

I've had a few good days out visiting Sixways but I fear for their survival this year. They've shiped nearly 140 points in 5 games and have Exeter and Bath next in the AP. It's early days this season but I can't see which player they are going to build some momentum around. Not convinced by Ryan either.

Its still very early days...lots to play for.

We've been very inconsistant...both our wins coming away from home - Sale and Wuss...but by god we should have beaten Gloucester aswell.

If Wuss had a decent kicker the game at the weekend could have been totally different.

For the Falcons, at least we have a reasonable pack...and with 3 retirees this season so far we MUST have some money to really bring in some quality in the backs...wing and cetres - we are crying out for a bit of pure quality...

Well, the pressure continues to build on Worcester.  0 wins and 8 points behind London Irish, and surprisingly Gloucester as well.  If we assume Gloucester will get their fair share of wins, that leave Worcester chasing London Irish 8 points ahead, and then Wasps, Newcastle and Sale, all 11 points ahead.  Still 16 games to go, but Worcester need to start picking up some wins just to catch up.  

And by the way, what's up with Gloucester?  If not for the fortunate win against Saints, they would have only 6 points.

And if the rumours are true James oConnor will be at Irish soon

Yep, and O'Connor won't miss kicks at goal like Humphreys and Geraghty's efforts today.

Sounds like we lost 3 points rather than gained 1 today

Geraghty I don't blame having seen it. I must confess I am not 100% on the laws in relation to this, but I don't feel that the referee did us any favours. The clock was dead with 8- minutes already gone, and the ball fell of the tee. Darren Allinson rushes up to hold it as it's replaced and the ref is shouting at Geraghty that he has 5 seconds to take the kick, so he just takes a couple of steps back, then steps forward and hoofs it and it falls just short. Perhaps a lock of composure, as 5 seconds is actually a reasonable amount of time, but ultimately we had missed a conversion and 5 penalties before that, meaning we could have been on 28 points at that stage and the kick would have been irrelevant.

Many London Irish fans were miffed at Geraghty not starting as he had been our form 10, and from all accounts that I have heard, iHumph was very hit and miss.

Definitely 3 points dropped for us I am afraid.

It was windy yesterday, would have been tough for the kickers.

Worcester massacred by the Chiefs. That is another game where they get nothing. They need to start getting the LBP if they want any chance of staying up. Every point is going to be vital for them.

It was windy for sure Sam, but we left 20 points out there off the tee. If we even make half of them, we come home with 4 points and the Falcons get 0. If that happens we are 8th instead of 10th, just behind Sale on pts difference and only 4 points of 4th spot. It's small margins at this level as we all know, and until we can start to ensure we take the chances on offer and win games like this, we will always be fighting in the bottom half of the table.

Will this not depend on who tops the championship? Various dodgy tactics used in the past to stop championship teams coming up - prevent relegation. Will this happen again?

Don't worry Ozzy. I think this really is a transitional year for you guys. All you need to do this year is survive, and our team at Sixways will certainly ensure that happens. Next year I think that you will strengthen.
We too are in a transitional year, but we are really doing very badly and look to be a mere training exercise for most teams. We cannot stay up with no defence, no ability to cross the whitewash and no kicker.
I think Dean Ryan is the right man, but there is clearly something rotten at the core of the Warriors. I feel we will need a complete clear out of the playing staff, and I fear that we may not come back up from the Championship at the first time of asking.
Yes we have our Argentinian contingent to come in - but I fear that we will be relegated by Christmas - in other words, before they can make a difference.
As to dodgy tactics, I agree, but hope not. Let me state here that if we are bottom of this league (which looks an increasing certainty) then we deserve to go down, whatever the criteria of the team who are chasing promotion may be. It is my belief that if a team wins the Championship, then they should be allowed a years grace to bring ground and all other criteria up to scratch.

I too have had some good days at Worcs but unfortunately its not a surprise that one of these years they were going to trip up. Too many years being in the bottom two or three means that one year you will come out bottom. Last year was not far and had LW not had the deduction then maybe they would have pushed harder when they must have been struggling to be bothered.

The shame is that the club is a good place. Good supporter numbers, good ground, good owner but the squad has never had enough quality throughout. I would be interested to see what the wage bill is.

There is obviously something wrong internally as Dean Ryan is not a bad coach and you only have to listen to what he is saying to realise that all is not well. Whether it will take relegation to be able to take a step back and sort it out. One of the real shame is that Worcs seem to be producing good academy players but then not keeping them.

Dean Ryan is an overrated coach and with Worcester going backwards this season I think we're seeing the evidence of that. It's still early doors for Ryan but he has an awful lot of work to do.

I think the dodgy tactics that TJ may be speaking about are usually based around grounds and facilities aren't they? Things like capacity etc. Not sure about who's favourite to go up from the Championship but would have thought that the current top 4 could all sort out qualifying grounds. So Worcester's only hope IMO is to start winning. I agree with Too Bored though - it's a transitional time for Worcs and the transition to something better is glacial! Hope you're wrong about Ryan Sam...

The criteria for promotion to the Premiership were clearly laid out. The problem for the Premiership was they grandfathered existing clubs already in the Premiership without requiring them to address their shortcomings v. the stated criteria. It was clearly wrong.

Exeter was able to manage their business right before Promotion. If Exe could get it right, all other candidates for promotion should be able to follow their lead and get their house in order too. Makes for a stronger Premiership. And for a stronger fully professional Championship.

At this early juncture, there are a few teams in the Championship who may qualify. Hopefully a good dogfight to the end. Brizzle and London Welsh are in stadia which qualify. Not sure about any others.

Worcester are now in deep trouble, and will have to do the virtually unprecedented to remain in the Premiership.  This is a shame because clubs and cities like Worcester are good for professional Rugby.  

After 7 matches last season, the foot of the table looked like this:
Sale were winless and were 8 points behind the eventual relegation loser, London Welsh.  However from here, Sale won 6 matches, drew 1, and lost 7, a fairly decent record.  

Worcester are now 9 points behind their closest competition, London Irish, who just made a major addition to their squad.  Worcester's next four matches take us to the half way point of the season:  at Sale, home to Saints, at Gloucester, and home to Saracens.  I think they will need to get two wins from the next 4 to retain some hope of staying up.   Not looking very positive at the moment:

Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	F-A	TBP	LBP	BP	Pts
Sale Sharks	7	3	0	4	114	141	-27	0	2	2	14
Newcastle Falcons	7	3	0	4	69	150	-81	0	1	1	13
Gloucester Rugby	7	2	0	5	131	182	-51	1	3	4	12
London Irish	7	2	0	5	124	167	-43	0	3	3	11
Worcester Warriors	7	0	0	7	85	198	-113	0	2	2	2

If Worcester don't beat Sale and Glaws they are all but down if LI also pick up a win over that period. Trying to claw back 13 points in half a season just wouldn't be possible for the Warriors though I can't imagine them leaving the Prem with a wimper, they may end up playing for pride but they certainly will give some teams a real challenge once they eventually gel.

If Worcester don't beat Sale then they're f@cked.

Irish next two games are Tigers away, which although you would think is a home banker, are there internationals back? its the first game back after the LV break. then Wasps at home. i would fancy us to beat Wasps at home whereas cant see Worcester winning at Sale or at home to Saints. You also fancy Falcons and Glos to pick up home wins quite reguarly

Well our next 4 is no joyride:

Saints away, Quins at KP, (Then two amilin cup games) then Exeter away, Wasps at KP...

Im assuming we'll be targetting Quins and Wasps at home for points. Cant see much coming from the Saints game..and Exeter at home are tough.

Glaws are certainly doing our bit to keep our former coaches in employment, so they may not be doomed yet...