How lucky are you?

I saw Shanshan Feng win the Reignwood LPGA Classic in China with the most outrageous good fortune at the last hole. Her second shot looked for all the world to be heading right of the green but got a lucky bounce in the rough and almost went into the hole. Luck played a big part in that win. How important is luck in golf? Do you consider yourself to be a lucky golfer or an unlucky one and what is the luckiest break you have ever had or seen?

I think it's difficult to be objective about your own luck, you often just don't see it that way. my mate has been steadily improving this year and gone from 9 to 5. Played with him a month ago and he shot 73, bouncing out of trees, good bounces round hazards, a thin that hit the flag to tap in. He was well pleased but couldn't see how lucky he'd been. Played with him last week and he shot the same, but played beautifully. 4 out 5 sand saves, 3 birdies from inside 8 feet, and hit a lot of GIR, but he felt that he should have scored much, much better!

Hopefully, it all evens out over time. Once read of some pro (forget whom) who hit a hook OOB off the tee which hit the railway line running parallel to the hole and came back in play. He then proceeded to hook his approach which hit the same railway line, came back onto the green and went in for an eagle. Wish I could remember who it was - think it was a Peter Dobereiner(sp?) book that told the anecdote...

Played with a friend some time ago whose first ace was via the most outrageous thinned 8-iron that smashed into the bottom of the flag/hole and somehow stayed in the hole.

A couple of years ago a guest was playing the downhill par 3 14th at famed Pine Valley. He played his tee shot screaming into the woods. It bounced out and went in the hole. As is the tradition at PV, he was given a mounted flag ... but they put a pretty large twig in the mounting on purpose!

Tough to beat Mickelson on the 14th hole yesterday, trying to play an impossible shot from a couple of postal codes to the right of the 14th fairway.
Hit the tree, bounced in to the water, bounced out of the water on to a grassy knoll from where Phil hit an extraordinary lob towithin four feet of the hole. Fortunately, Phil being Phil, he missed the par putt and saw Cabrera hole his twenty footer from off the green for par to win the hole.


Shotrock: We were talking about phrases horribilis a couple of days ago, "winningest", "my bad", etc. Just wondering if the opposite of "famed Pine Valley" would be defamed PV?

Kwin - Perhaps! But famed not to be confused with the other Pine Valley golf courses out there ... of which there are many! http://www.arkansas.com/attractions/detail.aspx?id=94889

Of course luck plays a huge part in the game and I don't believe it evens itself out. Consider Jean Van De Velte at Carnoustie. OK I accept that he didn't play the hole well but, if his second shot had stayed in the stand he would have had a free drop in a dropping zone and won the Open. If having rebounded from the stand had it gone directly into the burn, he could have dropped in a reasonable lie and got on the green for four and won the Open. The ball instead bounced on the concrete revetment and bounced over the burn into a nearly unplayable lie! We all know what happened next. That is a series of unfortunate incidents which will never even out.

Then consider Tiger Woods chip in at 16 at Augusta 2005. Yes, it showed huge imagination and he played it brilliantly, but for it to drop. Massively lucky. Compounded by the fact that DiMarco hit the stick with a chip in of his own for birdie on 18 and it stayed out. That drops and DiMarco is Masters Champion.

PS I of course am unbelievably unlucky at golf!! 

Saw a most outrageous eagle on par 5,17th at Remedy Oak. Playing with JAS and a certain D4S, late of this parish. By his own admission D4S was struggling with chipping and pitching. Didn't matter when he thinned one at Vettel speed and zero elevation into the base of the flag! Swear it took paint off and been difficult to get that particular flag in the hole, straight since then! We said well done and walked on!

Im incredibly unlucky .. Sometimes when I hit it into the trees I have not shot at all ! I get bad lies when I hit it in the rough, and when I hit my putts too hard, they sometimes lip out.
cant believe it sometimes.

Luck, good or bad, only ever comes into play on poor(er) shots. It often seems to be the case that the better you're playing the better your luck, but when it's not your day, it's not your day. Case in point yesterday - hit an ok 4 wood off the tee on our SI 1, but slightly pulled. Caught the top of a fairway bunker, and rolled back down into a little hollow right on the lip meaning it took two to get out. Next hole a bit of tree trouble just short of a water hazard. Tried to chip it out sideways, caught a branch on the way back and so sh*nked it into the water. Had to laugh!

I'm so unlucky if I fell into a barrel of boobies I'd come out sucking my thumb

Personally I find that, the harder I practice, the luckier I get.

Luck does not exist. So I do not think I am lucky or unlucky.

It is a quirk of our difficulty in understanding how probability works.

Although looking at it from a natural selection point of view why have we evolved to perceive luck as a concept? Does the assumption of luck, as we use it, give us an advantage over the purely rational/probabilistic interpretation of events?

"purely rational/probabilistic interpretation of events" in other words LUCK!!

I agree there is no such thing as luck and merely something which has becomena phrase to describe something which goes in someone elses favour unless it's the "luck of the irish"

puligny wrote:Saw a most outrageous eagle on par 5,17th at Remedy Oak. Playing with JAS and a certain D4S, late of this parish. By his own admission D4S was struggling with chipping and pitching. Didn't matter when he thinned one at Vettel speed and zero elevation into the base of the flag! Swear it took paint off and been difficult to get that particular flag in the hole, straight since then! We said well done and walked on!

Probably one of the luckiest shots I've seen this year...Infact I never saw it, I was walking beyond the green to my thinned effort which had possessed no luck at all when I heard a loud crack, looked round and I'm sure I saw the pin still shaking from the aftershock!!

Went through a phase around July this year where in the space of about 5 rounds I'd landed in 9 (yes NINE) old divots.

On approaching 2nd green at PB last Xmas, tugged an 8 iron, it kicked off the front left shoulder took 2 bounces toward the flag, hit it and dropped like a stone for eagle.

Sometimes you get the breaks, sometimes you don't. When I'm having particularly bad luck I always say to myself "can't wait for this to balance itself out!!"

Jas

You seem to have missed the point. Luck is a construct of the human minds interpretation of the world. If we always perceived events in a statistical manner luck would not exist. Of course it doesn't really exist in any form.

How can you statistically calculate the odds that a golf ball that can fly in an infinite number of directions, heights, speeds and spin rotations into a forest of trees, that it will deflect onto a putting surface? The use of the word "luck" is the best way to describe this event.

lorus59 wrote:How can you statistically calculate the odds that a golf ball that can fly in an infinite number of directions, heights, speeds and spin rotations into a forest of trees, that it will deflect onto a putting surface? The use of the word "luck" is the best way to describe this event.

You do not actually have to calculate the precise probabilities to realise the world is of a statistical nature.

With all due respect Mac you are way way way over thinking it and you've started contradicting yourself

"Luck does not exist"

and approx 6 hours later...

"Luck is a construct"

Unlucky!!

Qualified with the statement

"Of course it doesn't really exist in any form"

In relation to luck.

Meaning it does not exist in terms of any rule in the universe.

So no contradiction at all.

Interesting semantic debate, but whether you call it "luck" or a "yet to be balanced distribution of favourable versus unfavourable outcomes", some players seem to have more of it than others. Philosophically I would imagine they should be in for a run of unfavourable outcomes - but perhaps they'll retire before then. Yes, I'm talking about 9 chins.

Not golf related but I had a huge slice of luck when I was in my early twenties. At the time I was working in a fairly small office, run by two partners, who decided that I should be the one responsible for selecting a new computer system to replace the current one that was now getting old and out of date. The company that I chose to use was a fledgling business and fairly unknown but I liked their style, they were youthful and had plenty of innovative ideas that I felt would be of great benefit to the growth and expansion of our own business. It was during the mid-eighties, Maggie Thatcher's conservative government was still riding high after the victorious Falklands campaign and it was right at the start of the IT boom.

About three months after the successful installation of the system into our office the company that supplied it decided to go public. Because of the connection I was contacted and offered shares at a highly discounted price of 15 pence each. I wasn't particularly flush with cash at the time, I had just bought my first property a two bedroom flat, and I was living with my girlfriend. But I decided to have a punt and spent £2000 buying 13,333 shares.

As soon as the Company floated the share price rocketed. The next few years were amazing, I couldn't believe it, it was like a decent football pools or lottery win every quarter. On a few days the share price went up over £1! The company was hugely successful and profitable, having quickly spread nationwide they then got a lucrative foothold into the American market as well.

When the share price reached £25 a share split was offered which reduced the price of the shares to £5 but in return you received five times the amount of the shares that you were holding. From that figure the highest price the shares reached was £13.59. My two grand investment had turned into just under a million quid and I made a good percentage of that.  

I bought an acre of land and had a spacious four bedroomed property built and paid cash. I didn't have to sell the flat which has provided a nice bit of rental income ever since. It was pure luck of course, I didn't do anything particularly clever other than take a punt on a couple of grand. Now a bit of money doesn't solve all our problems or guarantee happiness of course, we all know that. But it sure as hell helped me though, in bringing up two kids without having a mortgage to pay every month, or worry about where to find the money to pay the bills.

It's exactly that Bob, this debate has randomly and probabilisticly (wtf kind of word was that MAC??) turned into a debate about semantics.

Lets take another example...in a medal a couple of years ago a playing partner was taking aim at a par 5 green with his 3 wood from about 250yards. There were a couple of seagulls on the fairway about 60 yards in front of him. He drilled a low one and thooomp!! 2 seagulls became one seagull and he still had 190 yards in. I would hazard a guess that NO playing partner would utter the words "wow, that was statistically a very low probabilistic outcome for that particular event and it would have been even less probable if you'd hit a high draw mate" On the other hand "Aw Poopie, unlucky mate" or words to that effect would be much more common.

Childish alert.

Luck, wahey! Get it? Oh come on! LUCK! Sounds almost exactly like f-!

(Probably) copyright BBC, Blackadder II 1986.

Sorry.

Blue, my jealousy-ometer has gone through the roof
I dream of something like that happening to me!

Good for you and many people wouldn't have been brave enough to take that punt even at £2k so well done.

Oh, and sorry but i have to say this..... are we certain Blue isn't Mav?

McLaren wrote:Jas

You seem to have missed the point.  Luck is a construct of the human minds interpretation of the world.  If we always perceived events in a statistical manner luck would not exist.  Of course it doesn't really exist in any form.

Good God Almighty! No Mac, it's you who've missed the point of the thread I think.

Roller_Coaster wrote:Childish alert.

Luck, wahey! Get it? Oh come on! LUCK! Sounds almost exactly like f-!

(Probably) copyright BBC, Blackadder II 1986.

Sorry.

Wasn't that the episode 'Beer'?

MustPuttBetter wrote:Good for you and many people wouldn't have been brave enough to take that punt even at £2k so well done.

Oh, and sorry but i have to say this..... are we certain Blue isn't Mav?

 
 
 
Cheers MPB and I think we can be fairly certain. I have never claimed to have been:-
 
a) Army boxing champion
 
b) The course record holder of everywhere I have ever played
 
c) Irresistible to women who immediately dispatch all of their clothing the moment they see me

She's up all night til the sun,
I'm up all night to get some,
she's up all night for good fun,
I'm up all night to get a statistically very low probabilistic favourable outcome.

incontinentia wrote:She's up all night til the sun,
I'm up all night to get some,
she's up all night for good fun,
I'm up all night to get a statistically very low probabilistic favourable outcome.

    

incontinentia wrote:She's up all night til the sun,
I'm up all night to get some,
she's up all night for good fun,
I'm up all night to get a statistically very low probabilistic favourable outcome.

incontinentia wrote:She's up all night til the sun,
I'm up all night to get some,
she's up all night for good fun,
I'm up all night to get a statistically very low probabilistic favourable outcome.

Yup!!! Brilliant Incon, Post of the week so far!!

it's an interesting question this. I'm not sure easy it is to say how lucky or unlucky you have been after a round because most of us don't have access to a video recording our play. since most of the action takes place at least 150 yards away, it's entirely possible you miss the bounce that takes it away from the bunker or the twig that pushes it into the bunker.

in nearly every major championship I have watched where someone won by a single shot, there's a shot you can recall which just avoided a bunker or a lake and the guy goes on to win. a different bounce and history would be different.

someone mentioned jean van de velde at carnoustie. also at carnoustie I remember gary player hitting a second shot over the spectacles that missed a bunker by a fraction of an inch. jack nicklaus hit a similar shot that kicked into the same bunker. player made three, nicklaus six, and player won.

the margins are very fine indeed. one good break or one bad break is the difference between winning and losing.

"most of the action takes place at least 150 yards away".
Not with me it doesn't - only wish it did.
And I'm still unliucky!

Isn't the putter the most used club in the bag? So most of the action takes place on or around the green.

Most of the shots happen in and around the green but I'd say that most of the action involving good/bad luck (or low statistical probability events...) are with the longer shots (or at least the stand out memories of lucky/unlucky events lie there). Drives that hit walls or trees that ping into the fairway, thinned approaches that run through bunkers to the pin, irons that kick off the fairway distance marker blocks/sprinkler heads into unexpected gumpf etc.

On the green the surfaces are (generally!) better and truer so reference to luck tends to give way to the shot being a good or a bad one (or higher statistical probability grabs more hold). Yes there are hugely overhit putts that fortunately(?) hit the back of the cup plop up then drop but misses tend to be put (ah ha) down to bad line, bad weight, bad stroke rather than the gods.

I'm unlucky btw

I think we're all lucky since we ended up discovering golf, a game that you can go on playing almost forever, instead of fencing, hurling, synchronised swimming or javelin

You can play it as much as you want, true, but is is not the cheapest pastime in the world.

I don't think it's that expensive
You buy yourself some bats, yes they can be expensive but don't have to be. You could pick up something decent and secondhand for £200.
Then if you're a member of a club you've got the monthly fee. I pay £112 a month and i had always assumed that was on the more pricey side.

Bearing in mind when i played football (which i would assume is considered a cheap sport) you used to pay £80-£120 a year for decent boots plus it was always approx £6 a week subs at an amateur level. I believe that is more like £10 a week these days, so call that £40-£50 a month.
Not a massive difference

Used to play hockey and at a tenner a game, plus 150 notes a year subs, plus equipment and petrol costs, golf is a lot cheaper!

Jeez - I'd not thought about it like that. On those numbers it's not a bad price (cf £50 p/m + £3 a weekly comp less occasional winnings).

Balls last a lot less time in golf though (for me spraying them about or {very rarely} scuffing them with a crisp wedge) and can be quite expensive.

Luck is a really interesting concept and this is a great thread (apart from Mac's dumb comments).

I used to consider myself really unlucky on the golf course, nothing ever went my way and my regular playing partner and I always used to joke about his good luck and my bad luck. As I've got older I've changed my view and now realise that my good luck and bad luck even out over the long run, I guess I'm mature enough now to recognise that some of my good shots are more to do with luck than skill. My partner however, continues to experience nothing but good luck. I've never known anything like it!

SmithersJones wrote:Luck, good or bad, only ever comes into play on poor(er) shots.

Not sure about this one SJ. Have you never struck a perfect putt, watch it track towards the hole and then see it catch a spike mark and miss? Or hit a perfect drive down the middle of the fairway and found your ball in a deep divot? Or watch a perfect drive hit a hump / sprinkler head / distance marker in the middle of the fairway and deflect into the rough or fairway bunker? Seems to happen to me all the time!  

Everybody - what are your stories of outrageous luck, either good or bad?

To keep super happy, here is a classic luck of the Irish moment from Darren Clarke:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1CKesTyTpI

Actually this is more lucky:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KbGbLOQ4mk

raycastleunited wrote:

SmithersJones wrote:Luck, good or bad, only ever comes into play on poor(er) shots.

Not sure about this one SJ. Have you never struck a perfect putt, watch it track towards the hole and then see it catch a spike mark and miss? Or hit a perfect drive down the middle of the fairway and found your ball in a deep divot? Or watch a perfect drive hit a hump / sprinkler head / distance marker in the middle of the fairway and deflect into the rough or fairway bunker? Seems to happen to me all the time!  

I was going to concede the point when I first read that Ray, but in fact, no. If there's a spike mark in the line of your putt, and you hit it, you've hit the putt where you wanted to. Alternatively, if it's there, and you miss it and so miss the putt, are you still unlucky? Divots in the middle of the fairway aren't unlucky, they're more likely there since that's where you're supposed to put your drive. Finding a divot in the rough is unlucky, finding one in the middle of the fairway is part and parcel of the game. As as for your deflections, how narrow are your fairways ffs?

Interesting question - I think one issue is that we are almost programmed to down-play the occasions when we have good luck and over-state the bad luck. I play a bit of poker online, and my comment above definitely applies to that.

As for the luck balancing out, it's probably true if you are playing at a similar level over a long period, but you can certainly look at a few cases for the pros where a hefty slice of good luck has won Majors (Darren Clarke skimming the ball over the water on his way to the Open, Larry Mize's chip hitting the hole rather than making it all the way to the lake) and bad luck having cost others (JvdV being the most high profile). Probably matters more to the one-off champions who don't have a history of getting in to position to challenge many times in their career.

Anyway, luckiest thing I've ever seen relating to golf was playing pitch and putt with my sister in Llandudno. She pulled a shot over the fence, which bounced on the adjacent road, cleared a parked car and bounced in the drive of one of the houses the other side of the road - looked to be heading for a window, but the next two bounces saw the ball kick back towards the road, missing at least one more car before the ball came to rest about 200 yards from the tee in the gutter at the road edge. Another 20 yards and it would have run all the way down the Great Orme to the town centre...