After the first round of the HC - who looks good and who is cannon fodder?

First topic message reminder :

Who looks like the likely winners? =can't see past Toulon myself. Glasgow have been playing well and were outclassed and outgunned. Exeter impressed me as well - the way they just ran everything back and the speed with which they played was great. Rugby how it should be played and with a team thats probably worth less than the toulon bench!

Edinburgh - are they set for another good cup run? I was impressed with their win.

Blues and Quins? back to the drawing board.

TJ wrote:Exeter / Glasgow is gonna be a good game for sure.   Home advantage should put Glasgow thru but I wouldn't bet my shirt on it.  Glasgow will be hurting from the loss and Toonie surely has learnt his lesson about putting players out of position.  Goal kicking still remains an issue tho.  I so do not what rhubarb taking the kicks - 'cos if he misses one his whole game collapses

In fariness to Rhubarb, and I'm not his greatest fan, he did just fine from the tee vs RCT

Aye - but too many times I have seen him lose all confidence after missing kicks. He seems to play much better if he is not taking the kicks.

True, TJ - I'd let the all-round, multi-talented take them then

Is he a decent kicker? does he have the nerve required?

TJ wrote:Is he a decent kicker?  does he have the nerve required?

Yes to both - and he could use sand from his bucket for the tee

Artful_Dodger wrote:I think Saints will beat Ospreys.  Ospreys need forward domination to win matches as their backline is poor.  I don't think they'll get forward domination against a Saints pack.

They'll be lucky to get parity. Adam Jones hasn't adapted to the new laws very well, I'm surprised not more people have picked up on it. For example, Edinburgh gave them a really hard time, Ulster matched them as did Leinster without Mike Ross. I also get the feeling the scrums will be a mess in this one... And of course, all of Northampton's backs to run all over Beck and Fussell. That O's backline is terrible.

I have seen that with Adam Jones - the new laws have reduced the effectiveness of his cleverness ( cheating?)

Not sure he likes waiting around to be able to push, so maybe his explosive power isn't as great as his strength.

The Saint wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:I think Saints will beat Ospreys.  Ospreys need forward domination to win matches as their backline is poor.  I don't think they'll get forward domination against a Saints pack.

They'll be lucky to get parity. Adam Jones hasn't adapted to the new laws very well, I'm surprised not more people have picked up on it. For example, Edinburgh gave them a really hard time, Ulster matched them as did Leinster without Mike Ross. I also get the feeling the scrums will be a mess in this one... And of course, all of Northampton's backs to run all over Beck and Fussell. That O's backline is terrible.

Corbisiero being injured is a big blow though.

Mickado wrote:

The Saint wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:I think Saints will beat Ospreys.  Ospreys need forward domination to win matches as their backline is poor.  I don't think they'll get forward domination against a Saints pack.

They'll be lucky to get parity. Adam Jones hasn't adapted to the new laws very well, I'm surprised not more people have picked up on it. For example, Edinburgh gave them a really hard time, Ulster matched them as did Leinster without Mike Ross. I also get the feeling the scrums will be a mess in this one... And of course, all of Northampton's backs to run all over Beck and Fussell. That O's backline is terrible.

Corbisiero being injured is a big blow though.

Didn't realize Corbisiero was out, that could swing things Ospreys way a fair bit come scrum time.

Out for 3/4 weeks Dodge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/england/10382058/Prop-Alex-Corbisiero-likely-to-be-ruled-out-of-England-squad-for-autumn-internationals-due-to-knee-problem.html

Mickado wrote:Out for 3/4 weeks Dodge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/england/10382058/Prop-Alex-Corbisiero-likely-to-be-ruled-out-of-England-squad-for-autumn-internationals-due-to-knee-problem.html

Don't like to see a player out injured.........but I think they should rest him a bit longer than a month. About the 15th of December would be much better.

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso,
No points => Glasgow, Blues,

The biggest winner are those that win on the road, the biggest losers are those that lose at home.

band, I think that both Glasgow and Cardiff Blouses picked up TBP's which will do them equally well as LBPs, no?

Good spot As, rushed that post yesterday on where the teams would fall

thebandwagonsociety wrote:

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:

thebandwagonsociety wrote:What do you need to qualify?
- Strong home record (3 wins) 12pts
- At least a LBP in you losing games (2 away losses) 2pts
- A victory on the road (1 win) 4pts
That gets you to 18 points and means you need to either pick up 2 TBP during the group games or else a second road victory to break the 20pt barrier that usually secures progression.

So the winners;
Away wins this week => Leinster, Scarlets, Montpelier
LBP away => Munster, Perpignan, ASM, Leicester
TBP => Exeter, Toulon

Losers;
Home loss=> Osprey, Treviso,
No points => Glasgow, Blues,

The biggest winner are those that win on the road, the biggest losers are those that lose at home.

band, I think that both Glasgow and Cardiff Blouses picked up TBP's which will do them equally well as LBPs, no?

Good spot As, rushed that post yesterday on where the teams would fall

Didn't the blues and weegies pick up try bonus points? So not all bad.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

Mickado wrote:Out for 3/4 weeks Dodge

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/england/10382058/Prop-Alex-Corbisiero-likely-to-be-ruled-out-of-England-squad-for-autumn-internationals-due-to-knee-problem.html

Don't like to see a player out injured.........but I think they should rest him a bit longer than a month. About the 15th of December would be much better.

I too would echo Jennifers magnanimous words. No rush Corbs, just get better that's the main thing.

Interested to see what people now think after round 2.

Have to admit I thought Blues and Zebre were dead and buried after round 1 - but the Blues showed some real fighting spirit against Toulon and suddenly Pool 2 is wide open. Still feel Glasgow should be confident come December especially with Wales playing Australia just 6 days before Blues host glasgow.


Zebre however are now nothing more than cannon fodder, fighting merely for pride.

Well, what's it like so far?

Em, well, Pool 2 has developed into the early-running - wait for it! -  Pool'a'Death!

Everyone always loves to say they're in it but Pool 2 is it now.

Toulouse look belligerent but often stark-raving crazy too.
Clermont look.... can I say 'unconvincing' about everyone's favourite European style-pet?  
Leinster look............ can I say 'unconvincing' about everyone's favourite team to be bored with by now?

I still think Glasgow might pack a punch ....

The rest?  Well, chugging along with normalish enough expectations for now.  I don't really see anything exceptionally dominant yet...except Zebre, who are holding back beautifully.

Clermont hasn't convinced anyone SF. You should change the record..twas broken a few months ago see
Leinster from what they showed yesterday is still far from the finished article but hey they got 2 wins so nothing wrong with that and still plenty of time to improve

Ulster is the only team so far that is backing his pedigree with some serious performances. Let's see if they keep producing the goods on the long run unlike last year.

I feel that Ulster, Leinster and Toulouse all deserve huge credit for winning away from home against good teams.

Ospreys, Harlequins, Treviso and Zebre look the only teams out of it. The first 3 though will have key roles to play as the standings in their pools are decided.

Quins arent out of it but they need to get their act together. I still fancy clermont from that one.

All we need are 3 TBP wins and a win. It ain't over till it's over

ChequeredJersey wrote:All we need are 3 TBP wins and a win. It ain't over till it's over

Is that wonderful optimism or gallows humour?

Whichever it is, I admire the spirit.

Both. I expect to not qualify for the Amlin quarters but remain hopeful that we can sneak into the HEC quarters

After round 2, there are only three teams with 2 wins out of 2.

Ulster, Toulouse and Leinster.

Ulster have a double header against Treviso and Toulouse a double header against Connacht.

You would have to say these two are looking very good at this stage.

Treviso, Zebre, Ospreys, Quins- goodbye and good luck. I can't remember if anyone has ever came back from 2 opening defeats but I don't think these four will manage it.

pretty much impossible to go thru with 2 defeats I think

I think Edinburgh will go on to be cannon fodder too despite a good opening win over Munster. I think two could potentially progress from that group.

We have to win all 4 remaining matches with at least 2 if not 3 BPs

Still lots to play for though- ie Amlin places

Disappointing loss for edinburgh today for sure.

Yeah Amlin Quarters should definitely be the target now for Quins and Ospreys.

Ulster will have to be wary of Treviso... gotta back it up!

Notch wrote:Yeah Amlin Quarters should definitely be the target now for Quins and Ospreys.

Ulster will have to be wary of Treviso... gotta back it up!

How many can demote into the Amlin though? I think teams like Scarlets, and potentially one of Exeter, Cardiff and Glasgow having a better chance. There are a few teams with wins and points under their belt, each being more likely to get into the Amlin ahead of Quins and Ospreys.

It's pretty irrelevant- the target for miraculously making the HEC knockouts from 2 defeats down, making the Amlin or just salvaging some pride all requires the same input- try to win every game, play well

Its just a target really. Knowing that its possible means they'll play for it.

Right now Edinburgh, Connacht, Scarlets etc. are all still technically in with a shot at the knockout stages. No-one expects them to get through but until it's impossible they'll keep targeting it.

What I'm saying is, I believe all teams will be trying to win their remaining games. There are those with more wins/points than Ospreys and Quins, also trying to win their remaining games... It doesn't leave much hope for those two.

So are we, technically. Top of our group is 6 points, we have 1, 20 points left to play for, if we beat Racing twice then they can only get 18points max and we can still technically top the group, it's merely incredibly unlikely

The Saint wrote:What I'm saying is, I believe all teams will be trying to win their remaining games. There are those with more wins/points than Ospreys and Quins, also trying to win their remaining games... It doesn't leave much hope for those two.

You are spectacularly missing the point here. No-one is saying that they will get it, just that they will target it now the quarter-finals are pretty much gone for them.

ChequeredJersey wrote:So are we, technically. Top of our group is 6 points, we have 1, 20 points left to play for, if we beat Racing twice then they can only get 18points max and we can still technically top the group, it's merely incredibly unlikely

thought you had 2 points?

So we did. BBC tables are wrong. Shocker

Notch wrote:

The Saint wrote:What I'm saying is, I believe all teams will be trying to win their remaining games. There are those with more wins/points than Ospreys and Quins, also trying to win their remaining games... It doesn't leave much hope for those two.

You are spectacularly missing the point here. No-one is saying that they will get it, just that they will target it now the quarter-finals are pretty much gone for them.

I got the point, you should have noticed that when I stated, "I believe all teams will be trying to win their remaining games." If not, they shouldn't turn up. Speaking from my perspective, when considering the positions of Ospreys/Quins and the rest, the Ospreys/Quins are dead and buried. As are Treviso and Zebre. Isn't that the point here, identify the 'cannon fodder.'