Welsh AI Aspirations

Im quite interested to know what the welsh supporters on 606v2 expect from thier national team this November.

How many wins would you be happy with? and who do you realisticly think your side will beat.

I personally think that last years Welsh performance against the SH sides will be long forgotten and that Wales will win every game except their first against SA.

I was debating this on another thread, there is no reason what so ever why Wales should not be looking at a clean sweep. Man for man they should have enough,being at home, to beat anyone, lets be honest here, Wales were so close to beating the Boks in the last world cup, if being at home can make a difference then we should be aiming for a win, we are after all the best in Europe, as we are the six nations champs two years on the trot, we must break off our six nation shackles and take the same emotion into the AI if we can do this then I think we could have a very prosperous Autumn.

It is going to be a tough game for both sides, if SA have really evolved this year then I expect a win, we'll have to see how much they have improved.

LordDowlais wrote:I was debating this on another thread, there is no reason what so ever why Wales should not be looking at a clean sweep. Man for man they should have enough,being at home, to beat anyone, lets be honest here, Wales were so close to beating the Boks in the last world cup, if being at home can make a difference then we should be aiming for a win, we are after all the best in Europe, as we are the six nations champs two years on the trot, we must break off our six nation shackles and take the same emotion into the AI if we can do this then I think we could have a very prosperous Autumn.

The 2011 world cup match will be of little consequence here: the Boks now are a different team- different coach, different attitude.  I think Wales' momentum from the 6N and the experience and confidence boost from participation in the Lions tour will be more pertinent factors.

Anyways, sorry for chipping in, I not a Welsh supporter....

Will be happy with 3 wins, if we beat the Boks then that's a bonus, tho I fear they'll be a little more street wise than us, I expect a tough game tho.

I don't buy into this 'best in Europe' stuff. We shocked England in the 6N but they handed a beating out to the ABs that we can only dream of. I still can't figure out how we managed to win that game in Paris.

The first half mauling by Ireland is still fresh in the memory as are last year's AIs against Argentina and Samoa. France and England remain top 2, by some margin.

The Lions tour is irrelevant.

'Aspirationally', we'd like consistent performances that show we deserve a seat at the top table, particularly when we lose more than 1 or 2 first choicers from a starting XV.

I think we should be aiming to win all of them, we have the ability and home advantage but not sure physiologically if we can. We probably lose to SA and Aus, scrape past Argentina, havnt seen Tonga play recently but dont think they that strong?? So probably draw with them.

I look at the Bok squad and think wales will need to play their best match in 10 years to beat this team.

We see du Perez, Fourie both returning.

Wales needs frontfoot ball to compete... But a front five of beast, Bismarck, Coenie, eben and flip is an Everest scale challenge... This ain't tom youngs and Joe marler.

The lions scrapped past aus in reality bar the final test.... SA tore chunks out of them from the word go.

It's a huge step up. Possible,  but only a performance ranking amongst their finest ever will do.

We should not expect to do well against the Boks. Be competitive, perhaps. But it's a big leap of faith/expectation to expect a win. I've said this a number of times, but winning the 6N only proves we're best (at the time) of the teams ranked circa 4th to 12th in the world.

We're told that the world rankings are an accurate reflection of a team's standing in the world, which is what they're designed for. Why then should Wales, who consistently fluctuate between say 5th and 10th in the world, be expected to beat the team consistently number 2 in the world for the last god knows how long? Home advantage is one thing, but that jump in class is too much to expect a win. Hope for a win is more realistic. Yes, we were close in the last World Cup but as others have said SA are better, new coach, playing better rugby, etc., and I don't think we've kicked on in that time.

I dont think its unrealistic to expect 3 wins this autumn, Argentina and Australia are both relatively weak compared to what they were, if Australia turn us over AGAIN I will be bitterly disappointed.

Though we should take into account the absence of Cuthbert and Roberts and how this affects the game plan thats worked for us.

To be in with a chance of winning the boks we will need:

1) At least replicate the intensity we played with against England if not go up a level

2) Be clinical

If we do that we will be in the game. However its a tough ask first up.

I expect us to win the other 3 games

Wales should be targeting 3 wins out of 4, and pushing the Saffers close.

If they replicate their performance in the 30-3 win over England, they may well pull off a surprise win.

I hope their mental shortcomings against SH sides in the past don't come back to haunt them. Hopefully, the Lions tour will have given Wales a boost.

I think 3 out of 4 is a minimum, the Boks will be to strong for us but will be a close one.

I think Wales can match the physicality of the Boks. The key is to maintain it for the full 80. And keep possession. Easy to say, harder to do. BUt I think Wales can do it.

The only thing is, Wales won't beat the boks like they beat England... You just don't boss a bok pack... The last team to do that was England in 03.

Packs here are simply bigger, they're 930kgs. Players like beast look the most trim they have ever been... And he's weighing in at 120kg. It's not about weight but Meyer has these guys very fit and yet they are still huge.  That can work against them though, you run them to the ground, chaps like beast, coenie, Alberts all 120-130kg cannot withstand a running platform for too long. spread them and make me chase the game.

It may not have worked this time but AUS have a lot of success vs SA in recent years with inferior packs. As long as they can stay with them upfront they often found a way to win... Chaps like pocock have been instrumental to this.

The no.6 shirt is very interesting. Logic would suggest picking lydiate, the best tackler in the side... But sides like AUS have done well by picking a very mobile backrow so maybe warburton and tipuric is more in order???

Lineout is also a place to compete..... SA doesn't do much variation at the moment. Hardly ever to the back, hardly ever to the front.

NZ allowed SA to attack them, Meyer loves waves of attack like a blitzkrieg... But it leaves open the opportunity to turnover and counterattack a vulnerable SA scratch defensive line. It's a question on how well you trust your defence?

To define it strictly in terms of recent autumn results, even one win would be progress. Taking into account the form of the Welsh team over the last year as well as that of their respective opposition this particular autumn, we should be looking at at least two or three wins. I say it in that order seeing as Wales have developed an annoying tendency in recent seasons of seemingly reserving their very worst and most uninspired performances for the AI. And judging by Gatland's recent comments that he prioritises the 6N title over a successful overall autumn campaign, the worry lingers that this trend might not be broken this season.

I will be amazed if Wales beat SA first up, we had problems yesterdy of being cold against what was a pretty poor Aus outfit, SA are looking as dangerous as they have since 2009, with a few key players to come in too.

If this was last up I'd say Wales have a huge chance, as it stands 10 point win boks.

fa0019 wrote:The only thing is, Wales won't beat the boks like they beat England... You just don't boss a bok pack... The last team to do that was England in 03.

Packs here are simply bigger, they're 930kgs. Players like beast look the most trim they have ever been... And he's weighing in at 120kg. It's not about weight but Meyer has these guys very fit and yet they are still huge.  That can work against them though, you run them to the ground, chaps like beast, coenie, Alberts all 120-130kg cannot withstand a running platform for too long. spread them and make me chase the game.

It may not have worked this time but AUS have a lot of success vs SA in recent years with inferior packs. As long as they can stay with them upfront they often found a way to win... Chaps like pocock have been instrumental to this.

The no.6 shirt is very interesting. Logic would suggest picking lydiate, the best tackler in the side... But sides like AUS have done well by picking a very mobile backrow so maybe warburton and tipuric is more in order???

Lineout is also a place to compete..... SA doesn't do much variation at the moment. Hardly ever to the back, hardly ever to the front.

NZ allowed SA to attack them, Meyer loves waves of attack like a blitzkrieg... But it leaves open the opportunity to turnover and counterattack a vulnerable SA scratch defensive line. It's a question on how well you trust your defence?

I agree with you. However we need to play with the same physicality and intensity (especially in contact area) just to be in the game. If we are even 5% off that it will be a hard day at the office!

Interesting what you say about the lineout. If that is the case I hope we go with charteris to try and put some pressure on in that area

I'm sure the players and coaches are targeting all 4 wins but for a welsh fan, I can't see us beating SA. Their performances in the RWC were just superb and up a level from what Wales produced vs England and that was something. I hope we stay competitive and maybe pull of a surprise win but can't see it. No excuses for not beating Aus this year or Argentina/Tonga

SA are the toughest by far and first up, if we can beat them than why can't we make a clean sweep. The first game is so important, it's a must win that will shape or success this autumn.

Jhamer,

IF (and for me its a big IF) we beat the Boks then a clean sweep would definitely be on the cards, they are without doubt our toughest opponents by some stretch this AI series.

Could we catch them cold who knows, I do think it will be close game but fear (happy if wrong) we will just fall short again.

It'll be 2 knackered and battered teams that take the field on 30 Nov, that's for sure.

I really do think that Wales need to start beating the Southern Hemsiphere boys regularly as they have the talent to do so. South Africa is a big ask as that game V the All Blacks was awesome stuff and I think they have an equally strong team (if not stronger). But good sides win at home so Wales need to win this and secure a clean sweep.

It will be very depressing if it is the old 2 steps forward then 1 back.

Guys, the Springboks ave had some seriously good performances this year, but then they have also had some very poor performances.

They are not yet consistent.

Joel Stransky is quoted (or possibly misquoted) in the rugby paper today saying that Wales have the talent but not the mental attitude to beat SA.

Agree BT?

Although there may be some evidence that could support his theory, I beleive it is arrogance to beleive an opponent does not have the belief to beat you.

This should be a good match! Wales have won 1 from 23 matches against SH opposition under Gatland! An amazing stat. Theres a big mental block there like Ireland have when they play France.

Clearly it's a shame for Wales they have RSA up first - would have preferred to have a game or two to warm up to play the best, but anyway...
I think several Welsh players have moved up a level this year - not just in ability, but mental attitude and toughness - people like AWJ, JD2, North, Hibbard and even Warburton. These guys now expect to win big games. Watching the Lions doc was a good indicator of where they are mentally. They are good enough to win all four games - though I think 3 wins is more realistic. I'd be pleasantly surprised if they come out of the blocks well enough to beat RSA. 2 wins would be a backwards step.

Good god, there's some defeatist attitude on this site....

Wales aspirations should be to win ALL four games. A boxer doesn't go into the ring with the mindset that he'll lose the next fight, but that's ok as he'll expect to beat a few lower ranked fighters later on....

It's going to be a tough AI campaign, and I hope no one thinks Tonga will a push over as they will come targeting what they perceive a big NH scalp, knowing that in the past, we have been and can be beaten in AI competitions. Also I expect some experimentation in the team, which may prove interesting. However I still aspire (as asked in the OP) for a clean sweep.

Mind you if we only destined for 2 wins, I'd much rather they where against the Boks and Wallabies, than Tonga and Pumas. If it is only to be 1 win, hope that's against the Boks, as beating the top tier SH sides will do more for confidence and future development than beating Tonga or Argentina. Although I'm not dismissing those teams, as I said earlier, the AI will be a tough campaign.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/wales-captain-sam-warburton-anything-6267457

' Anything less than 3 is unacceptable' from Warbs. So I'm guessing he is looking realistically that 3 is acceptable?

So translating that in plain terms it will be unacceptable to lose to Australia.
Of course it may change if Wales beat SA but..
Does the England win 'up the ante' against Australia or should Wales purely focus on themselves & their results?

Liam wrote:I'm sure the players and coaches are targeting all 4 wins but for a welsh fan, I can't see us beating SA. Their performances in the RWC were just superb and up a level from what Wales produced vs England and that was something. I hope we stay competitive and maybe pull of a surprise win but can't see it. No excuses for not beating Aus this year or Argentina/Tonga

Sorry Liam SA were poor in RWC and it cost their coach his job. But Morne Steyn was imperious with the boot when JW and various Welsh and other kickers struggled.
I think Wales will be really up for it. The last time the Boks played here George North scored twice on debut but we lost by 4. As said before key players have hardened up add Hibbard to that list and with the Lions behind us we are moving forward. Compare to last year dismal Aus tour no Adam Hibs in/out Warbs and Phillips just coming back RP having a nightmare we are in a much much better place. My glass is definitely half full

Have Wales given up trying to beat the All Blacks?

I always enjoy the Wales v New Zealand AI game.

Scrumpy wrote:Have Wales given up trying to beat the All Blacks?

I always enjoy the Wales v New Zealand AI game.

I think most have lol, I remember Roger Black saying when he was racing Michael Johnson, we are all just running for 2nd.

I always love the underdog.

To be honest Wales have a great chance to win them all this Autumn.

Yeah, I love supporting any underdog, unless of course they are playing SA, whether Wales are the underdog for this match is debatable though.

I think Wales could do well this Autumn.

Wales vs SA could be a cracker. The two sides that England have the most problem with these days!

South Africa are favourites, Biltong, no question.

If south Africa was consistent this year I would agree with you, but they still have games that go completely wrong. At the moment you are not always sure which Bok team will appear on any given day. And we are notoriously poor in November.

So are we!

 

How do the welsh look to combat the boks?

Unfront fully with a blindside tackler or perhaps a tipuric & Warburton Dual openside combination???

I'd start with Lydiate at blindside and Warburton at openside. Tipuric is a hell of a footballer, but he's better suited to coming off the bench against sides like the Boks.

My head would say Lydiate any day as you need strong tacklers... but something constantly tells me that the boks huge pack will not like a frantic helter-skelter match and their backrow is not the best on the floor.

Sort of moves me to think Tipuric and Warburton would be better suited.

Prior to this year AUS had used and achieved very good results vs. SA with a similar plan.

It's a tricky one. There are definite benefits to switching Warburton to 6 and playing Tipuric at 7, but I'm not sure we have the bulk elsewhere in the pack that we can afford to do that.

My only issue is that bulk vs bulk.... SA wins, everytime.

I think Wales need to address this. They aren't facing Joe Marler and Tom Youngs.

Getting this pack running around and tired is the best shot Wales have in my opinion... it doesn't mean playing an open game.... kicking can destroy a side physically as much as running can.

I heard something similar on the weekend, I think it was Jiffy on Scrum V saying he'd been speaking to a former All Black who told him that was the way to beat this current South Africa side.

I think its too early in the season for the Wales team to expect them to slug it out with SA for a win. See how bad England were, dropped passes, missed tackles... all first game clangers. Wales will have their fair share, everyone stats slow.

The best teams have a variety of ways to play. Wales need a specific one for the boks.

The challenge of course is that we have a much stronger bench and use of our subs these days, the subs are also rather mobile. So even if Meyer has to bring some of them on a bit earlier, I wonder how effective it will be to run them around

In considering an answer to this, we also need to consider what has caused Wales' turnaround in the last year. After the 2012 AI, Wales were in a bad place. That continued with match 1 of the 6N. Match 2, the win in Paris, was winning ugly but a win nonetheless. Then something clicked and the mauling of England at the end was quite a spectacle. This then continued with the players forming the bulk of the successful Lions tour. How did things change so much to get to the confident high they are on now?
My feeling is that several big game players who form the spine of the side started realising their form again. Too many of Adam Jones, Alun Wyn Jones, the entire back row, Phillips, Roberts, North (I'll leave Halfpenny out as he has been consistently excellent) have gone missing at times. What is the form of those key players now? Some are out due to injury, some have big legal arguments with their former club, others are going great guns. Will the current blend be a potent mix to take on the Boks?
After the debacle of a year ago, I'd suggest a competitive loss to the Boks, a win against the Aussies and clear victories in the other two should be the minimum return.