Rugby Championship 2014: Patterns and Predictions

First topic message reminder :

The venues for the Argentinian home games are yet to be confirmed along with the kick off times but already most of the fixtures for the 2014 RC have been decided. There is a familiar feel to them.

Date Time Home Score Away Venue
16/08/2014 TBC Australia - - New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney
16/08/2014 TBC South Africa - - Argentina Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
23/08/2014 TBC New Zealand - - Australia Eden Park, Auckland
23/08/2014 TBC Argentina - - South Africa TBC
06/09/2014 TBC Australia - - South Africa Patersons Stadium, Perth
06/09/2014 TBC New Zealand - - Argentina McLean Park, Napier
13/09/2014 TBC Australia - - Argentina Skilled Park, Gold Coast
13/09/2014 TBC New Zealand - - South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington
27/09/2014 TBC South Africa - - Australia Newlands, Cape Town
27/09/2014 TBC Argentina - - New Zealand TBC
04/10/2014 TBC South Africa New Zealand Ellis Park, Johannesburg
04/10/2014 TBC Argentina - - Australia TBC

The patterns of the fixtures are becoming familiar to us. SA has a gruelling travel schedule in the first part of the competition. In part, that is compensated by the fact that Argentina seem nowhere near prepared for their first match, and playing at altitude on a dry deck only exacerbates that fact. So it seems safe to assume that Argentina will suffer a bonus point defeat at the hands of Argentina in their first match. What seems to be a pattern so far is that they come back stronger in their home game. Can SA extract a bonus point win there and apply pressure to NZ?

Similarly, Sydney has seen a loose but comfortable victory for NZ. Can a resurgent Australia stop that from occurring and can they get a victory? That would really throw a cat among the pigeons. Like Argentina, Australia have come back usually stronger in the NZ away test but the result has never been in doubt. The Eden Park venue is an intimidating one for Australia. That starts NZ's 3 home game streak but usually against Argentina they have been unable to secure a bonus point victory. They have usually put in a sub-par performance and pulled away only in the final quarter. The weather conditions - rainy usually - and playing at night only serve to make this result more likely. If NZ can secure a bonus point in this match, it alleviates the pressure in the latter part of the tournament. But in a way I'm not so sure if this is a good thing to have that pressure relieved because usually at the business end of the competition NZ has pulled out its best performances often because that pressure to win has been there. If SA lose away to Australia and NZ have a bonus point cushion, I think they are more likely to fall at Ellis Park. Having that pressure to perform is a good thing in my opinion. What do you think?

I really don't know why Wales didn't persist more with Biggar. He makes mistakes but what I liked about him in the 6N is that he doesn't let mistakes affect him. He's still capable of pulling off significant moments like the kick against France. Priestland on the other hand seems to get worse after making mistakes. Barrett missed a first up tackle against De Villiers. Beat a rushing up De Villiers and two others to score the crucial points. Saved a try that would've given SA hope in the closing minutes. Players who stand out for me are the ones that score or create opportunities when the team needs it the most.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:I really don't know why Wales didn't persist more with Biggar. He makes mistakes but what I liked about him in the 6N is that he doesn't let mistakes affect him. He's still capable of pulling off significant moments like the kick against France. Priestland on the other hand seems to get worse after making mistakes. Barrett missed a first up tackle against De Villiers. Beat a rushing up De Villiers and two others to score the crucial points. Saved a try that would've given SA hope in the closing minutes. Players who stand out for me are the ones that score or create opportunities when the team needs it the most.

Barrett's an excellent example of that Kia. He knows he's there to make an impact, make the most of what he can in the 20 or 30 minutes he gets. And just about every time he comes on he sparks something and usually scores a try from nothing.

I remember we started the year with a weak looking bench. SA seemed much stronger in that area. Then by year's end we had the locks looking better with Romano back, Cane showing impact in the loose, the front row finishing strong in the scrums, Luatua giving the lineout a good option and impact in the loose and the likes of Barrett and Piutau looking ominous with every touch of the ball. Such that by year's end it's difficult to remember how weak that bench looked at the start of the year. The results disguise the level of improvement that has occurred in the overall squad.

Kia, not to forget, Ryan Crotty looking the real deal at center. Meaning that NZ have the insane luxury of considering world player of the year nominee Ben Smith as an impact bench option, covering 13,11,14,15. Put SBW into that bench too, covering 12,11,14 and it starts to look like one of the strongest benches ever to grace an international team in the professional era.

GE you do let that pen get away on you at the end sometimes don't you...  

I know the superlatives are utterly sickening for some but such is the interest with Kiwis in just how good this side can get.

Agree though and think it runs a little deeper than that. Its as though every new player has been prepared so well that they're all able to fit in as though they were the incumbant.

All those guys all having a go immediately- not even bothering to go through the 'yikes- I'm an All Black' phase and just getting on with it. Saiili would be the only that wasn't a huge success but he still kept on having a go, ran with confidence, mixed it up- the obvious dropped pass early in the match coughing up the try enough to sabotage a career.

It still may have but the way he just dug deeper and continued to have a go illustrates the overall preparation and confidence everyone seems to get.