Rugby Championship 2014: Patterns and Predictions

by kiakahaaotearoa Mon 16 Dec 2013, 8:55 am

First topic message reminder :

The venues for the Argentinian home games are yet to be confirmed along with the kick off times but already most of the fixtures for the 2014 RC have been decided. There is a familiar feel to them.

Date Time Home Score Away Venue
16/08/2014 TBC Australia - - New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney
16/08/2014 TBC South Africa - - Argentina Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
23/08/2014 TBC New Zealand - - Australia Eden Park, Auckland
23/08/2014 TBC Argentina - - South Africa TBC
06/09/2014 TBC Australia - - South Africa Patersons Stadium, Perth
06/09/2014 TBC New Zealand - - Argentina McLean Park, Napier
13/09/2014 TBC Australia - - Argentina Skilled Park, Gold Coast
13/09/2014 TBC New Zealand - - South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington
27/09/2014 TBC South Africa - - Australia Newlands, Cape Town
27/09/2014 TBC Argentina - - New Zealand TBC
04/10/2014 TBC South Africa New Zealand Ellis Park, Johannesburg
04/10/2014 TBC Argentina - - Australia TBC

The patterns of the fixtures are becoming familiar to us. SA has a gruelling travel schedule in the first part of the competition. In part, that is compensated by the fact that Argentina seem nowhere near prepared for their first match, and playing at altitude on a dry deck only exacerbates that fact. So it seems safe to assume that Argentina will suffer a bonus point defeat at the hands of Argentina in their first match. What seems to be a pattern so far is that they come back stronger in their home game. Can SA extract a bonus point win there and apply pressure to NZ?

Similarly, Sydney has seen a loose but comfortable victory for NZ. Can a resurgent Australia stop that from occurring and can they get a victory? That would really throw a cat among the pigeons. Like Argentina, Australia have come back usually stronger in the NZ away test but the result has never been in doubt. The Eden Park venue is an intimidating one for Australia. That starts NZ's 3 home game streak but usually against Argentina they have been unable to secure a bonus point victory. They have usually put in a sub-par performance and pulled away only in the final quarter. The weather conditions - rainy usually - and playing at night only serve to make this result more likely. If NZ can secure a bonus point in this match, it alleviates the pressure in the latter part of the tournament. But in a way I'm not so sure if this is a good thing to have that pressure relieved because usually at the business end of the competition NZ has pulled out its best performances often because that pressure to win has been there. If SA lose away to Australia and NZ have a bonus point cushion, I think they are more likely to fall at Ellis Park. Having that pressure to perform is a good thing in my opinion. What do you think?

by Scratch Tue 17 Dec 2013, 8:06 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:I get the feeling NZ are over the wall And away now. I don't take away from the incredible effort it took to get there. But with a stranglehold on every other team mentally, home and away, and nothing but depth underneath, I think this All Blacks team will be like Australian cricket in the 90's.

I can't honestly see NZ losing a game until circa 2018.

GE good luck with your delusions…..from now on you will be known as Cyclops

They got properly spanked only a year ago and I can assure you SA will beat them next year

One assumes there will be plenty of Kleenex around the camp for you to borrow

by Guest Tue 17 Dec 2013, 8:48 pm

I think we will beat SA home and away. Probably lose other games but I reckon we'll throw everything at these two games to send the Poopie up em. Create some pressure on them from SA media/fans to spark a bit of friction. If my memory is correct, when there's external pressure on SA, things happen, and usually it's an implosion of some sort. If SA win one, ok, no surprise, if they win both, much respect and then I'll concede ground and the shoe will be on the other foot and biltong will be gloating humble'y and twisting the blade and fair enough.

by Taylorman Tue 17 Dec 2013, 8:57 pm

Scratch wrote:
GloriousEmpire wrote:I get the feeling NZ are over the wall And away now. I don't take away from the incredible effort it took to get there. But with a stranglehold on every other team mentally, home and away, and nothing but depth underneath, I think this All Blacks team will be like Australian cricket in the 90's.

I can't honestly see NZ losing a game until circa 2018.

GE good luck with your delusions…..from now on you will be known as Cyclops

They got properly spanked only a year ago and I can assure you SA will beat them next year

One assumes there will be plenty of Kleenex around the camp for you to borrow

Yeah well thats a bit silly.
The point really is the gauntlet is down for all others. Whatever improvements there have been, they're not yet enough. They'll never be enough until a win is imposed, so its ALL conjecture until that happens.

As sideline fans we well know the threat the revised Bok side brings with it so if its that obvious to us Hansen and co will be well and truly focussed on the Bok game of 2013.

They'll have every current and potential bok player, every ruck, scrum, lineout, breakdown and every other thing that moves analysed well before the England series and RC start.

They know a 2013 AB side wont beat a 2014 Bok side and will have devised ways to both counter what the Boks could potentially bring and what the AB's can improve or introduce themselves to keep clear of the pack. The AB's are in the business of winning. Full stop. Not gap closing. Winning.

Its that menality that gets them home in matches like Eden park, Ellis, vs Ireland. As someone said 'Ireland didnt know how to win, the AB's didnt know how to lose'. In the minds of the players that take the field, I think that's now the case for all sides.

by Scratch Tue 17 Dec 2013, 9:31 pm

Taylorman wrote:
Scratch wrote:
GloriousEmpire wrote:I get the feeling NZ are over the wall And away now. I don't take away from the incredible effort it took to get there. But with a stranglehold on every other team mentally, home and away, and nothing but depth underneath, I think this All Blacks team will be like Australian cricket in the 90's.

I can't honestly see NZ losing a game until circa 2018.

GE good luck with your delusions…..from now on you will be known as Cyclops

They got properly spanked only a year ago and I can assure you SA will beat them next year

One assumes there will be plenty of Kleenex around the camp for you to borrow

Yeah well thats a bit silly.
The point really is the gauntlet is down for all others. Whatever improvements there have been, they're not yet enough. They'll never be enough until a win is imposed, so its ALL conjecture until that happens.

As sideline fans we well know the threat the revised Bok side brings with it so if its that obvious to us Hansen and co will be well and truly focussed on the Bok game of 2013.

They'll have every current and potential bok player, every ruck, scrum, lineout, breakdown and every other thing that moves analysed well before the England series and RC start.

They know a 2013 AB side wont beat a 2014 Bok side and will have devised ways to both counter what the Boks could potentially bring and what the AB's can improve or introduce themselves to keep clear of the pack. The AB's are in the business of winning. Full stop. Not gap closing. Winning.

Its that menality that gets them home in matches like Eden park, Ellis, vs Ireland. As someone said 'Ireland didnt know how to win, the AB's didnt know how to lose'. In the minds of the players that take the field, I think that's now the case for all sides.

NZ have to improve by closing the gap on other team's improvements.
To sit and gloat suggesting the gauntlet is down is inviting disaster…an object at rest tends to get whacked.
E.g. SA have begun to work on the breakdown so NZ will have to close the gap on those improvements. Being focussed on winning sounds great, every team has that agenda, NZ are imperious but, stock excuses aside, England proved that they aren't infallible.

by Guest Tue 17 Dec 2013, 9:52 pm

Think we agree with you scratch.

But it's the notion that some are saying that the ABs have hit the ceiling and there is no potential for improvement. This is based soley on the fact we bet all comers so we have reached our limit. Don't think that is the case.

Kia mentioned it in the energy expend thread. The ABs pull away at the end of games cause they have more energy by not rushing into every breakdown and also kicking the ball away. What other teams are doing that? It's served us well this year. Teams may look at that and then try it themselves. We'll move on to some other strategy by that time. For all the huffing and puffing out of SA, they're hardly revolutionizing the game, just playing catch up and finally letting the backs warm their hands.

Thing about the ABs, we won't get bullied by SA. We may not dominate them. But they won't steamroll us like they do other teams with their forwards. Quite the contrary, we steamrolled them at Ellis when their steak feed giants were stuffed. They'll get fitter people will say, really? These are pro atheletes that have nothing to do all day but to work on their fitness. They get told what to do by the best sports scientists. Get fitter, how?

by GloriousEmpire Tue 17 Dec 2013, 9:56 pm

NZ need to improve? Let's get something straight - the "improving" teams are falling further behind.

SA, after years of sticking to what they do best have been spooked into a radical departure from their core strength. That might make them more dangerous to teams like England, Wales; but it plays into NZ hands.

England came at NZ with their predictable 10 man game last year. This year they tried the same again and NZ were ready for them.

I see Australia as NZ's biggest threat for 2015, but I think they lack the depth to go the distance.

We are seeing the ushering in of an era of unprecedented dominance. NZ have always been the best side between world cups, and with that monkey off the back it looks like they're the best team in World Cup years too.

NZ have been guilty of being overly reliant on a few star players, but the impressive thing about this team is that each week a different player from 1-15, or off the bench puts up his hand.

NZ have simply, forgotten how to lose.

by GloriousEmpire Tue 17 Dec 2013, 9:57 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:NZ need to improve? Let's get something straight - the "improving" teams are falling further behind.

SA, after years of sticking to what they do best have been spooked into a radical departure from their core strength. That might make them more dangerous to teams like England, Wales; but it plays into NZ hands.

England came at NZ with their predictable 10 man game last year. This year they tried the same again and NZ were ready for them. England have surely learned by now that with 15 men in the breakdown there's no one left to attack.

I see Australia as NZ's biggest threat for 2015, but I think they lack the depth to go the distance.

We are seeing the ushering in of an era of unprecedented dominance. NZ have always been the best side between world cups, and with that monkey off the back it looks like they're the best team in World Cup years too.

NZ have been guilty of being overly reliant on a few star players, but the impressive thing about this team is that each week a different player from 1-15, or off the bench puts up his hand.

NZ have simply, forgotten how to lose.

by Scratch Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:02 pm

Cyclops, posting the Delusional Party Manifesto twice doesn't make it true.

I look forward to you being hoisted by your own petard.

by GloriousEmpire Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:04 pm

Mark my words.

by Scratch Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:12 pm

By my calculations, the average adult gets 2-4 colds per year. That means, of the 92 NZ players involved in 4 games v England next year at least one will have dysentery. (92+2.4)/1 >4=1.

by GloriousEmpire Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:21 pm

94? It's not Clive Woodward's lions!

by quinsforever Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:26 pm

SA for RC 2014, or very close, and definitely SA (on today's odds) for RWC2015. epic young forwards, and backs with real threat, and a good kicker. looks like a good value bet to me.

by Taylorman Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:40 pm

quinsforever wrote:SA for RC 2014, or very close, and definitely SA (on today's odds) for RWC2015. epic young forwards, and backs with real threat, and a good kicker. looks like a good value bet to me.

Closer than this year?

Only reasons kiwis can say what we're saying is because they are currently winning. That's all. We know we can lose just as much as the rest of the world knows it and should we lose that doesn't mean we all get told 'we told you so' because we know that anyway.

SA could catch up and win, but they've been in that boat for 4 seasons now. This is just another, albeit a bit more colourful, version of the same. I'd suggest with the style of play they're likely to take some backward steps before they go forward more- just because they're now beating all non NZ sides- doesn't mean they'll continue to. Others will look for ways in possibly where they weren't previously there.

A full on attack for example leaves you vacant on defence for intercepts and the like. Doesnt happen a lot vs SA a lot recently because theyre not known for spreading the ball wide, but when they do- theyll come undone like ALL attacking sides do- the AB's probably more than most.

And should that happen...what then? Do they press on or tone it down- these are issues facing NZ sides over the years many times. SA have no comprehension of having numerous intercepts against them...they might now.

by quinsforever Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:43 pm

i could care less what happens in RC to be honest, just reading the tealeaves as i see them. SA are definitely a good value bet at the moment though.

SA are younger, especially in the forwards, and getting stronger every match. NZ less so. RWC is in NH and will therefore have a NH interpretation at the breakdown, favouring SA over NZ.

by tigerleghorn Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:51 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:NZ need to improve? Let's get something straight - the "improving" teams are falling further behind.

SA, after years of sticking to what they do best have been spooked into a radical departure from their core strength. That might make them more dangerous to teams like England, Wales; but it plays into NZ hands.

England came at NZ with their predictable 10 man game last year. This year they tried the same again and NZ were ready for them.

I see Australia as NZ's biggest threat for 2015, but I think they lack the depth to go the distance.

We are seeing the ushering in of an era of unprecedented dominance. NZ have always been the best side between world cups, and with that monkey off the back it looks like they're the best team in World Cup years too.

NZ have been guilty of being overly reliant on a few star players, but the impressive thing about this team is that each week a different player from 1-15, or off the bench puts up his hand.

NZ have simply, forgotten how to lose.

Your adulation has a child like whiff about it (in more ways than one I'm betting Whistle

)and is a little cringeworthy. Are you hoping to receive a Manchester United (oops, it's Arsenal atm isn't it?) shirt from Santa this xmas ?

by Taylorman Tue 17 Dec 2013, 10:58 pm

Nice when its that simple ay quins...the 6N doesn't exactly thrill here- last years rounds 2-4 enough to put the most excited puppy to sleep...

by Guest Tue 17 Dec 2013, 11:06 pm

Ok, chestnut time.

I think the good oil is actually on England to win the RWC as they will have homer refs and it's proven to be easier to win at home. Oh dear, sorry, that just came out unexpectedly:)

Actually, I'm predicting 2nd year blues for the almighty boks next year. When people say the boks are young, they don't mean habana, JDV, duplessis et al do they? Wonder how much extra fitness those old timers can eke out to fulfill all this room for improvement?

by Taylorman Tue 17 Dec 2013, 11:12 pm

And last time I looked from the pack Cane, Luatua, Faumuina, Romano, Retalick, Whitelock, Coles, and even Read and Messam werent all that old were they?

by GloriousEmpire Wed 18 Dec 2013, 10:59 am

I think the problem is that young All Blacks like Savea, Ben smith, Aaron smith, Charles Piutau, Francis Saili, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Cruden, have already had success incredible success that the world doesn't really see them as rookies in their first, second seasons, but veterans with large reputations.

So the youthful nature of this All Blacks side is not really recognised.

by kiakahaaotearoa Wed 18 Dec 2013, 11:29 am

I think there's still a lot of room for improvement for NZ. There needs to be as Australia and SA have improvement in them. Having some continuity at 10 without Carter will be of help. Conrad Smith back will help. Developing the pack and adding some impact will help. I think the resources are there to ensure that and what this team has achieved is irrelevant. It's what's ahead of them and assessing which games require their best.

by GloriousEmpire Wed 18 Dec 2013, 4:43 pm

Two work-ons for NZ next year will be getting to grips with the new scrum interpretation and tightening up the defense. It seems inevitable that there will be another annual scrum interpretation change before the end of the year, so the ground may shift beneath us again anyway.

NZ leaked too many tries, and the ruck situation needs a re-think if we're going to have referees allowing players to compete off their feet and seal off as Joubert allowed England to do this year. Personally I think if the ruck laws are going to be regressed by proxy for the RWC then we should look at re-introducing rucking too. Surely the powers that be have not forgotten that the ruck laws are now as they because certain teams with ten man agendas spent five years lying all over the ball and killing the game as a spectacle, precipitating 2003 and 2007, the two most boring world cups of all time and triggering introduction of the ELV's to bring spectators back to the game?

by No 7&1/2 Wed 18 Dec 2013, 5:03 pm

by GunsGerms Wed 18 Dec 2013, 5:17 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:I think the problem is that young All Blacks like Savea, Ben smith, Aaron smith, Charles Piutau, Francis Saili, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Cruden, have already had success incredible success that the world doesn't really see them as rookies in their first, second seasons, but veterans with large reputations.

So the youthful nature of this All Blacks side is not really recognised.

If you say so. Beauden Barrett for example has two caps. Hardly a veteran with large reputation. Same goes for Charles Piutau and Francis Saili.

Cruden has thirty caps so even though he is young enough (almost 25) he has been around for a good while now. Smith and Savea have something similar.

by aucklandlaurie Wed 18 Dec 2013, 6:27 pm

GunsGerms wrote:
GloriousEmpire wrote:I think the problem is that young All Blacks like Savea, Ben smith, Aaron smith, Charles Piutau, Francis Saili, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Cruden, have already had success incredible success that the world doesn't really see them as rookies in their first, second seasons, but veterans with large reputations.

So the youthful nature of this All Blacks side is not really recognised.

If you say so. Beauden Barrett for example has two caps. Hardly a veteran with large reputation. Same goes for Charles Piutau and Francis Saili.

Cruden has thirty caps so even though he is young enough (almost 25) he has been around for a good while now. Smith and Savea have something similar.

Garbage, Beaudy Barrett has played 16 tests, under your criteria he probably hasnt got much of a reputation, but hes never played in a losing test.

In fact there would be very few players in International rugby who have a win/loss stat of 16 and 0.

by GunsGerms Thu 19 Dec 2013, 12:14 pm

Ok my mistake but with 16 caps you would call the NZ 3rd choice OH a veteran with a large reputation? Sadly he is not. I know Kiwis are the most arrogant rugby fans in the world but thats a little ridiculous. Maybe in super rugby but certainly not in international rugby yet.

by GloriousEmpire Thu 19 Dec 2013, 12:59 pm

GunsGerms wrote:Ok my mistake but with 16 caps you would call the NZ 3rd choice OH a veteran with a large reputation? Sadly he is not. I know Kiwis are the most arrogant rugby fans in the world but thats a little ridiculous. Maybe in super rugby but certainly not in international rugby yet.

You miss my point.

My point is that although these guys have a comparatively small number of caps, the world doesn't largely recognise them as being part of a young All Blacks team, in the same way that SA or England are called "youthful and inexperienced" because by comparison the young All Blacks talent have already achieved so much. This is a trap the rest of the world are falling into. They don't realise how young this All Blacks is and how much improvement is still has in it.

It's not arrogant when it's true.

by OzT Thu 19 Dec 2013, 1:25 pm

Biltong wrote:Kia, the lower a team is in performance the more room for improvement they have.

Beaut. Means heapsa room for improvements for the Wallabies then! Great news after a poor year for us, though getting better as the year went by....

Yay!!

ps has anyone mentioned the Ashes??? Smile

by Taylorman Thu 19 Dec 2013, 6:56 pm

GunsGerms wrote:Ok my mistake but with 16 caps you would call the NZ 3rd choice OH a veteran with a large reputation? Sadly he is not. I know Kiwis are the most arrogant rugby fans in the world but thats a little ridiculous. Maybe in super rugby but certainly not in international rugby yet.

No reputation? Probably the best impact player off the bench this year guns. Vs the boks he came on and scored the winning championship try by running straight around jdv. Then found the time to run down the flying le roux after having to turn and chase. Defence not a strong point and probably what mostly costs him a start ahead of Cruden. When we compare Barret this year to sextons effort vs the ABs there's only one that I'd rather have. Pretty sure Barrett has a very good reputation- even if it is only in the SH.

by aucklandlaurie Fri 20 Dec 2013, 9:12 am

GunsGerms wrote:Ok my mistake but with 16 caps you would call the NZ 3rd choice OH a veteran with a large reputation? Sadly he is not. I know Kiwis are the most arrogant rugby fans in the world but thats a little ridiculous. Maybe in super rugby but certainly not in international rugby yet.

Arrogance has got nothing to do with it, just because you think he hasnt got a large reputation (or achieved much which is what GE said) doesnt make anyone who disagrees with you arrogant. You may not realise it but you dont justy turn up and become an All Black.

by kiakahaaotearoa Fri 20 Dec 2013, 9:17 am

That try against France in the second test in June was an absolute peach and was only superseded by his running down of a winger who had a good clean start ahead of him running the other way.

With Carter on sabbatical I hope to see more of this kid next year. Nganboy has always believed he will start in 2015 but I'm not so sure. I'm just glad he's in the squad as somebody who covers both 10 and 15 and offers real impact off the bench cannot be understated.

by GunsGerms Fri 20 Dec 2013, 11:38 am

Sorry no matter how good he is he wont have a "large reputation" anywhere outside of NZ until he is a regular starter.

Taylorman, Sexton's missed kick v the ABs is a big blot on his career but he is much more acomplished than Barrett at the moment. His influence on that match and the Lions tour before the missed kick was outstanding.

by GloriousEmpire Fri 20 Dec 2013, 11:40 am

Having a large reputation "outside NZ" is not really an issue. If the ability to spot talent was adept north of the equator they would'nt continually squander the massive player resources they have.

We're quite happy to lead the way in that too.

by GunsGerms Fri 20 Dec 2013, 11:43 am

GloriousEmpire wrote:Having a large reputation "outside NZ" is not really an issue.

GloriousEmpire wrote:
I think the problem is that young All Blacks like Savea, Ben smith, Aaron smith, Charles Piutau, Francis Saili, Beauden Barrett, Aaron Cruden, have already had success incredible success that the world doesn't really see them as rookies in their first, second seasons, but veterans with large reputations.

You seem to be changing tack.

by GloriousEmpire Fri 20 Dec 2013, 12:02 pm

Nope. Fact is, a lot of fuss has been made of "youthful" south africa and England, and how much "room for improvement" they have. But so far NZ is under the radar in that regard, everyone imagining they are "peaking". Without noticing that a large proportion of the side is very young. We've managed in a new crop of talent very well, and because the success rate has been 100%, those young players are not being afforded the kind of allowance for development of their potential that other nations have had. The fact that when I point them out, you accuse them of having no reputation certainly makes my point all the stronger!

by GunsGerms Fri 20 Dec 2013, 12:11 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:Nope. Fact is, a lot of fuss has been made of "youthful" south africa and England, and how much "room for improvement" they have. But so far NZ is under the radar in that regard, everyone imagining they are "peaking". Without noticing that a large proportion of the side is very young. We've managed in a new crop of talent very well, and because the success rate has been 100%, those young players are not being afforded the kind of allowance for development of their potential that other nations have had. The fact that when I point them out, you accuse them of having no reputation certainly makes my point all the stronger!

NZ are unbeaten in 2013. However that doesnt mean that players that have hardly featured somehow have huge reputations. The Kiwis that have been most influential in 2013 are Smith, Read, McCaw and maybe Cruden.

Three of the guys you mention have two caps or less. They have very little to do with NZ's sucess this year. You can make a case for Cruden but some of the others are not key team members yet. Cruden himself wasnt trusted at all in the world cup at all. It seemed the tactic was to avoid passing it to him because he was inexperienced.

A large proportion of every side is young. Same nonsense with Ireland all the time, its an ageing side etc. Fact is most of Irelands best players are actually the younger ones now too.

Murray, O'Brien, Healy, Sexton etc.

by Taylorman Fri 20 Dec 2013, 4:58 pm

Its about balance guns. Piatau for one was superb on the northern tour and to bring so many young players through yet retain a winning record is unparalled. And the good thing is these young guns have quickly learned through this process that the ABs just do not lose whereas the players you are mentioning are used to losing. That is a completely different introduction to the international scene as young player if the game. The standard they need to reach as players and bearers of the black jersey is ingrained into them, something they've been aware it all their lives but are now experiencing first hand...match after match.

Ignore these players at your leisure guns but just be very aware that theyre learning the trade from the best and are ready to fill some big boots. Soon they'll go from being 'ignored' to 'where do they get these players from' to who knows. Seen it many times before.

by GunsGerms Fri 20 Dec 2013, 5:09 pm

Taylorman wrote:Its about balance guns. Piatau for one was superb on the northern tour and to bring so many bound players through yet retain a winning record is unparalled. And the good thing is these young guns have quickly learned through this process that the ABs just do not lose whereas the players you are mentioning are used to losing. That is a completely different introduction to the international scene as young played if the game.

Ignore these players at your leisure guns but just be very aware that theyre learning the trade from the best and are ready to film some big boots. Soon they'll go from being 'ignored' to 'where do they get these players from' to who knows. Seen it many times before.

Not ignoring them at all just pointing out that they dont have massive reputations yet because they dont. We have heard it before (Victor Vito for example, Colin Slade)

by GloriousEmpire Fri 20 Dec 2013, 5:25 pm

GunsGerms wrote:
GloriousEmpire wrote:Nope. Fact is, a lot of fuss has been made of "youthful" south africa and England, and how much "room for improvement" they have. But so far NZ is under the radar in that regard, everyone imagining they are "peaking". Without noticing that a large proportion of the side is very young. We've managed in a new crop of talent very well, and because the success rate has been 100%, those young players are not being afforded the kind of allowance for development of their potential that other nations have had. The fact that when I point them out, you accuse them of having no reputation certainly makes my point all the stronger!

NZ are unbeaten in 2013. However that doesnt mean that players that have hardly featured somehow have huge reputations. The Kiwis that have been most influential in 2013 are Smith, Read, McCaw and maybe Cruden.

Three of the guys you mention have two caps or less. They have very little to do with NZ's sucess this year. You can make a case for Cruden but some of the others are not key team members yet. Cruden himself wasnt trusted at all in the world cup at all. It seemed the tactic was to avoid passing it to him because he was inexperienced.

A large proportion of every side is young. Same nonsense with Ireland all the time, its an ageing side etc. Fact is most of Irelands best players are actually the younger ones now too.

Murray, O'Brien, Healy, Sexton etc.

So you admit it then? unbeaten NZ are also a youthful team with loads of room for improvement. I'm glad we agree. Smith is such a rookie that when I was posting that he would revolutionise wing play at the start of the year, I was called a WUM. So glad to see you've come around to that one too. Now imagine when allllll those young AB's reach their potential! Wow! Just hand over the world cup again now!!!

by Taylorman Fri 20 Dec 2013, 5:26 pm

Yes that's two. And very much exceptions to the rule. Slade was hit by numerous serious head injuries so that didn't help. He's coming back well though. Vito has his problems...basically he analyses too much rather than letting his natural talent come through.

But for every one of those there are many others. Savea and Aaron smiths debut series vs Ireland here was fairly successful.cruden, Barrett, piatau, cane, Coles, retalick, Aaron smith have all featured significantly at some point for the ABs this year, mostly as subs or injury replacements.

by GloriousEmpire Fri 20 Dec 2013, 6:02 pm

I suspect Vito will come to greatness in his natural role at 8, backing up Kieran Read and covering flanker both from the bench.

Vito is an amazing natural athlete, with deceptive bulk. He's almost identical in stature to Read, and mark my words he will be back in black.

He's chosen to stay in NZ, work on his game in conjunction with the AB trainers, taking on board his criticism an vowing to improve where he needs to. An astonishing show of loyalty and commitment, rather than crying off to Europe.Vito is leadership calibre and has captain written all over him - it's in his personal cultural heritage. He will be back to make you eat those words!

by Scratch Fri 20 Dec 2013, 6:13 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:I suspect Vito will come to greatness in his natural role at 8, backing up Kieran Read and covering flanker both from the bench.

Vito is an amazing natural athlete, with deceptive bulk. He's almost identical in stature to Read, and mark my words he will be back in black.

He's chosen to stay in NZ, work on his game in conjunction with the AB trainers, taking on board his criticism an vowing to improve where he needs to. An astonishing show of loyalty and commitment, rather than crying off to Europe.Vito is leadership calibre and has captain written all over him - it's in his personal cultural heritage. He will be back to make you eat those words!

I agree, it's great news for Samoa. thumbsup

by GunsGerms Fri 20 Dec 2013, 7:11 pm

GloriousEmpire wrote:I suspect Vito will come to greatness in his natural role at 8, backing up Kieran Read and covering flanker both from the bench.

Vito is an amazing natural athlete, with deceptive bulk. He's almost identical in stature to Read, and mark my words he will be back in black.

He's chosen to stay in NZ, work on his game in conjunction with the AB trainers, taking on board his criticism an vowing to improve where he needs to. An astonishing show of loyalty and commitment, rather than crying off to Europe.Vito is leadership calibre and has captain written all over him - it's in his personal cultural heritage. He will be back to make you eat those words!

In other words he has a massive reputation world wide?

by GloriousEmpire Fri 20 Dec 2013, 8:53 pm

Anginę with All Blacks an ounce of rugby sense can see it.

by GunsGerms Fri 20 Dec 2013, 8:57 pm

Wha? You on the beer too GE?

by Taylorman Fri 20 Dec 2013, 8:59 pm

GunsGerms wrote:
GloriousEmpire wrote:I suspect Vito will come to greatness in his natural role at 8, backing up Kieran Read and covering flanker both from the bench.

Vito is an amazing natural athlete, with deceptive bulk. He's almost identical in stature to Read, and mark my words he will be back in black.

He's chosen to stay in NZ, work on his game in conjunction with the AB trainers, taking on board his criticism an vowing to improve where he needs to. An astonishing show of loyalty and commitment, rather than crying off to Europe.Vito is leadership calibre and has captain written all over him - it's in his personal cultural heritage. He will be back to make you eat those words!

In other words he has a massive reputation world wide?

Guess he has...you brought the name up.

by Taylorman Fri 20 Dec 2013, 9:12 pm

I think with the system we have in place not many fail and that's what's really showing through. They're not selected in the first place if they don't have the right stuff. And the structure that henry, McCaw and now Hansen have built up ensures that these new guys are looked after as much as possible.

The team needs them as much as they need the team and it all bodes well for 2015 having 30 plus players with a good 20 to 30 tests at least which the Barrets and co will have by then.

When FDP smashed carter off the field early cruden and Barrett both stepped up to run the play and were instrumental in both the eden park and Ellis wins. You just can't buy that sort of coverage against a side like the boks.

by aucklandlaurie Sat 21 Dec 2013, 9:43 am

GunsGerms wrote:Sorry no matter how good he is he wont have a "large reputation" anywhere outside of NZ until he is a regular starter.

Taylorman, Sexton's missed kick v the ABs is a big blot on his career but he is much more acomplished than Barrett at the moment. His influence on that match and the Lions tour before the missed kick was outstanding.

Ive always been a massive Jonathan Sexton fan, now that some of the negative influences in the Irish back line have moved on I hope he goes on to show the World what he really can do. just hope its not too late.

by Taylorman Sat 21 Dec 2013, 4:27 pm

Well for the time that both have been around Barretts done a lot more with less opportunity on the big stage. Oddly both have a slightly unathletic gait to them so are deceptive in that respect. Barrett just has this x factor that sees him snare opportunities when nothing looks on.

by GloriousEmpire Sat 21 Dec 2013, 5:52 pm

Whereas sexton seems to make the inevitable look almost impossible. I wonder if he's a bit like flood - undoubtedly talented but lacking big game composure - a "bottler" if you will.

by Taylorman Sat 21 Dec 2013, 8:04 pm

Sexton like others played well in the crucial third lions test and one missed kick is hardly enough to place him in the bottle book. But many a 10 has struggled vs the ABs and sexton hasn't had great matches in the past. But he certainly looks the best of the NH.

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