Ulster vs Montpellier

First topic message reminder :

We all have our sights set on taking the Tigers scalp at Welford Road and getting that home quarter-final, but this game needs winning first- if we can do that we'll have the security of going into that final group decided having already qualified as best runners up. Winning will take our total up to 22/23 points depending if we get the four tries or not. Northampton, 2nd in Pool 1, can only get a maximum of 19 points, so that groups runner-up won't catch us. The games between Harlequins and Clermont, Gloucester and Munster and Toulon and Cardiff Blues will take three runners up out of the equation and the only way the runner up from Pool 3 can finish on 22/23 points is if Toulouse and Saracens draw (2 pts, 3 with a TBP) and then both thrash their respective opponents next weekend. Get the result we need and by the end of the round we'll be qualified and probably be seventh seeds at worst- then we can focus on going to Leicester, winning, and getting into the top-half of the draw.

Montpellier have a very strong squad, so even if they choose to rotate they won't be sending over a weak team, but even so they have been one of this years competitions biggest disappointments. They've had strong opponents in Ulster and Leicester yes, but to lose twice at home in their first four games must hurt for the players and fans. Whether they'll be out for revenge and highly motivated in Round 5 or have already mentally checked out of the tournament and be focused only on the Top14 is... hard to predict. It wouldn't be a big surprise if they choose to leave a few key players at home, the attitude of those they do bring could either make this an extremely hard fought game or a bit of an anticlimax for the neutral. You never do know what the attitude will be like with French sides on the road, especially in games they view as dead rubbers.

Pool Tables At the Start of Round 5:

Round 5 Fixtures:

Rory Best, Nick Williams and Johann Muller are all in from the start- Best in particular has had a Wolverine-esque recovery. Montpellier have omitted key players such as Mas, Gorgodze, Hamilton, Pélissié, Trinh Duc and club captain Fulgence Ouedraogo.

Andrew Trimble is making his 58th appearance in ERC competitions for Ulster, a new club record.

Ulster and Montpellier Teams:

Likewise Nathan

" You could argue strongly their second team has been better than their first"

Stand, I was more impressed by the Montpellier youngsters than I was the first team. They showed a lot more pride in the shirt and seemed far more willing to put their bodies in the line. Considering they had nothing but pride to play for they made life difficult for both Tigers and Ulster. Unfortunate for them their young 10 went off injured in the first half, he was very good vs Tigers and looks like he'll have a good and ultimately international career.

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Hook - I genuinely didn't mean what I said to come across as seriously as it has, but reading back it does look quite bad - apologies.

On what I said regarding our performances however, I think we are under performing. Like I said earlier I believe we have the best back line in Europe and yet they have looked very underwhelming. I don't blame them though, they don't have any platform to work from. I just struggle to understand how we can be so bad in that area of the game, and why we haven't sorted it out. We have good forwards on paper, but as a pack they have not been performing. Some big names not performing also.

I do think we are going to get a shock when we come up against better opponents. Imagine if Munster last week had a decent back line to go with their pack. There are teams in this competition like that. We definitely can beat them, but not if we play as we have been recently.

I am very nervous for the Leicester game to be honest.

Rory, no problem. Let's deal it as men do- pretend it never happened but stare into each other's vacant eyes with the shameful knowledge of what we did here today.

Apologies to Leicester fans it they feel I was being 'arrogant' but I am standing by my comments. Sorry lads, but you are rugby's Man Utd (and I say this as a Man Utd fan). The fear factor has gone. Not just for Ulster, but for many other teams. Leicester now look beatable. At home. In Europe. Thats quite a statement to make. It doesn't mean you aren't a decent side. It doesn't mean you couldn't beat any team on any given day. But now teams travel more in expectation than hope. There's the difference. Three, four seasons ago I'd take a losing bonus point at Welford Road. Now many Ulster fans are genuinely saying we should win this match. Not could, but should.

Of course we need to buck up our ideas. We have problems with our performance, and like Rory I have some uncertainties and fears about our players. We we have big game animals in that team. Players that know what is on the line against Leicester and I feel will raise their game. Montpellier gave our pack a pasting. A pack in which Best, Muller and Henry badly needed game time. A pack in which Afoa and Williams badly needed fitness. Well they sure as hell got it. I firmly believe they will raise their game for what will be a massive test. Going away to face Leicester always is. But when I say they are living on reputation I mean that, even if it is only last season's. This is not the Leicester of their pomp years. A decent side, yes. But their form over the course of this season suggests there is nothing to fear. Just like a trip to Old Trafford. Champions for sure with a rich and successful heritage. The name and the brand screams 'fear us'. The performances on the field in the here and now don't.

Its been a rough old season. Plenty of adversity to overcome, particularly injury-wise. But I think despite how tough it has been, we are still in the mix in all competitions. There is a great spirit in the team, even if the sharpness has lacked on occasion. This Leicester side will only get stronger as the season goes on and players come back from injury. Get the likes of Mulipola, Parling, Croft, Allen, Tuilagi back into the team, and a few more the strengthen the bench, and all of a sudden, they are a formidable prospect.

As for the fear factor, you still have to bear in mind Tigers have only lost once or twice at home in the last year or more. And those loses were during international windows. And they haven't lost at home in the Heineken Cup since 2006.

Hookisms and Hyperbole wrote:

Rory_Gallagher wrote:Hook - I genuinely didn't mean what I said to come across as seriously as it has, but reading back it does look quite bad - apologies.

On what I said regarding our performances however, I think we are under performing.  Like I said earlier I believe we have the best back line in Europe and yet they have looked very underwhelming.  I don't blame them though, they don't have any platform to work from.  I just struggle to understand how we can be so bad in that area of the game, and why we haven't sorted it out.  We have good forwards on paper, but as a pack they have not been performing.  Some big names not performing also.

I do think we are going to get a shock when we come up against better opponents.  Imagine if Munster last week had a decent back line to go with their pack.  There are teams in this competition like that.  We definitely can beat them, but not if we play as we have been recently.

I am very nervous for the Leicester game to be honest.

Rory, no problem.  Let's deal it as men do- pretend it never happened but stare into each other's vacant eyes with the shameful knowledge of what we did here today.

Apologies to Leicester fans it they feel I was being 'arrogant' but I am standing by my comments.  Sorry lads, but you are rugby's Man Utd (and I say this as a Man Utd fan).  The fear factor has gone.  Not just for Ulster, but for many other teams.  Leicester now look beatable.  At home.  In Europe.  Thats quite a statement to make.  It doesn't mean you aren't a decent side.  It doesn't mean you couldn't beat any team on any given day.  But now teams travel more in expectation than hope.  There's the difference.  Three, four seasons ago I'd take a losing bonus point at Welford Road.  Now many Ulster fans are genuinely saying we should win this match.  Not could, but should.  

Of course we need to buck up our ideas.  We have problems with our performance, and like Rory I have some uncertainties and fears about our players.  We we have big game animals in that team.  Players that know what is on the line against Leicester and I feel will raise their game.  Montpellier gave our pack a pasting.  A pack in which Best, Muller and Henry badly needed game time.  A pack in which Afoa and Williams badly needed fitness.  Well they sure as hell got it.  I firmly believe they will raise their game for what will be a massive test.  Going away to face Leicester always is.  But when I say they are living on reputation I mean that, even if it is only last season's.  This is not the Leicester of their pomp years.  A decent side, yes.  But their form over the course of this season suggests there is nothing to fear.  Just like a trip to Old Trafford.  Champions for sure with a rich and successful heritage.  The name and the brand screams 'fear us'.  The performances on the field in the here and now don't.  

Have you been frickin drinking.....funniest post I have seen in a long time..  

maverickmak wrote:As for the fear factor, you still have to bear in mind Tigers have only lost once or twice at home in the last year or more. And those loses were during international windows. And they haven't lost at home in the Heineken Cup since 2006.

... and that was down to crass stupidity by Shane Jennings who not only conceded the deciding penalty but then a further 10 metres for dissent to bring the kick just into range.

Although both teams are through to the quarters, this game is like a last 16 game in the knockouts, with the loser unlikely to progress. There has to be a strong possibility that they could meet again in the quarter final for a repeat game or the loser being away to Toulon, so a win is an absolute necessity. Leicester deserve to be big favourites, but I expect Ulster to win

I think some people might be eating humble pie here next week totally under estimating Welford road.

A lot of people said Ulster had no chance of beating Munster in the quarter finals of the 2012 HC because Munster simply never lost at Thomond....

Within 25 minutes Ulster were 19-0 ahead and went on to win the match.  Similarly Montpellier had never lost at home in the HC until Ulster beat them there in this seasons HC.

Welford Road is undoubtedly a tough place to go.  But Tigers aren't looking invincible, Ulster will believe they can get a win.

Tigers are not looking like a classic side at the moment but deny any side three lions for virtually the entire first half of the season and they'll look shaky. Ulster struggled to beat an injury ravaged Tigers at Ravenhill, now they get a less injury ravaged (I frigging hope) Tigers at WR. Fear factor is definitely diminished but not many teams get a win at WR.

Should be a cracking game.

I don't think we struggled to beat them at home. We pretty much controlled that game after the first quarter, which was why everyone was so disappointed we let them away with a BP.

Notch wrote:I don't think we struggled to beat them at home. We pretty much controlled that game after the first quarter, which was why everyone was so disappointed we let them away with a BP.

but surely it wasnt as controlled as well you mention else we wouldn't of got a BP.

formerly known as Sam wrote:Tigers are not looking like a classic side at the moment but deny any side three lions for virtually the entire first half of the season and they'll look shaky. Ulster struggled to beat an injury ravaged Tigers at Ravenhill, now they get a less injury ravaged (I frigging hope) Tigers at WR. Fear factor is definitely diminished but not many teams get a win at WR.

Should be a cracking game.

Ulster were missing some very big names for that game as well including Pienaar and Afoa.

Anywho.... are any of you Ulster Boys coming over for the game? 

A beer or two in town perhaps?

Why would anyone be eating humble pie next week? Should we give up just because it is at Welford road? Should we consign ourselves to an away QF?

What nonsense. If ulster play like Friday they will be comfortably beaten. If they bring their A game I don't think there are many that can live with us. We need that a game for 80 minutes though

Metal Tiger wrote:Anywho.... are any of you Ulster Boys coming over for the game? 

A beer or two in town perhaps?

PM, MT.

nathan wrote:

Notch wrote:I don't think we struggled to beat them at home. We pretty much controlled that game after the first quarter, which was why everyone was so disappointed we let them away with a BP.

but surely it wasnt as controlled as well you mention else we wouldn't of got a BP.

Hence the disappointment. We had it in our power to deny them that, we just lacked that extra 10% to put it beyond them. After we went ahead you never felt there was any danger we would lose that game but there was disappointment we didn't play well enough to capitalise on that control on the score board.

Personally I think its great both teams have qualified irrespective of next weeks result. I rather enjoy our games and the rivalry that is developing as it appears to be built on mutual respect & a genuine love of the game.

Can anyone explain how the draws for the finals will work... assuming that we both win our quarter finals... we can't actually meet again until the final proper?

Its a pity we wont get to renew this next year.

You could be meeting in the QF. The pool toppers are ranked 1-6 based on points. Two runners up are ranked 7-8 based on points. 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, etc.

I think the semi's are a random draw, with a random draw saying which QF will produce a home country SF.

" Ulster were missing some very big names for that game as well including Pienaar and Afoa."

Artful, Pienaar was on the bench and I think came on in the second half.

A few guys losing the run of themselves on this thread - No matter whether the glass is half full or half empty the fact is that we're 5 from 5 in Europe with the toughest game to come.

Despite our unconvincing form over the past month we still won 3 from 4, only losing to Leinster at the RDS.

Leicester are heavy favourites at Welford road but we won't be going there to make up the numbers... this game is massive for both sides as the winner will have a great chance of winning the competition and the looser....well... won't.

Keep calm and carry on. SUFTUM.

rodders wrote:A few guys losing the run of themselves on this thread - No matter whether the glass is half full or half empty the fact is that we're 5 from 5 in Europe with the toughest game to come.

Despite our unconvincing form over the past month we still won 3 from 4, only losing to Leinster at the RDS.

Leicester are heavy favourites at Welford road but we won't be going there to make up the numbers... this game is massive for both sides as the winner will have a great chance of winning the competition and the looser....well... won't.

Keep calm and carry on. SUFTUM.

Both teams have already qualified i think. Its a game for who plays at home.

I think that is what is being said nathan. Whoever gets the home QF fixture will have a great chance to progress. Whoever has to play away in the QF won't have a great chance at progression especially when you consider the teams that could be ranked 1&2 after the final round.

thebandwagonsociety wrote:I think that is what is being said nathan. Whoever gets the home QF fixture will have a great chance to progress. Whoever has to play away in the QF won't have a great chance at progression especially when you consider the teams that could be ranked 1&2 after the final round.

ah i see, sorry!

Carry on! lol

This is going to be one hell of a match I think. I will certainly be tuning in to watch it.

My heart wants Ulster to win but I cant see past Leicester at home.

nathan wrote:

rodders wrote:A few guys losing the run of themselves on this thread - No matter whether the glass is half full or half empty the fact is that we're 5 from 5 in Europe with the toughest game to come.

Despite our unconvincing form over the past month we still won 3 from 4, only losing to Leinster at the RDS.

Leicester are heavy favourites at Welford road but we won't be going there to make up the numbers... this game is massive for both sides as the winner will have a great chance of winning the competition and the looser....well... won't.

Keep calm and carry on. SUFTUM.

Both teams have already qualified i think. Its a game for who plays at home.

Ahhh... playing the underdog card I see.... well I will counter that by saying Ulster are the bookies favourites based on HEC form.The pressure is all on Ulster to turn us over  

Nachos Jones wrote:This is going to be one hell of a match I think. I will certainly be tuning in to watch it.

My heart wants Ulster to win but I cant see past Leicester at home.

I'd be agreeing with that.  I think this is the high profile fixture of the weekend.  I also think (hope) that the Glasgow vs Toulon game could be the surprisingly entertaining game of the weekend.

Its undoubtedly the big game of round 6, hence why its the 18:00 fixture on Saturday night.

Metal Tiger wrote:Ahhh... playing the underdog card I see.... well I will counter that by saying Ulster are the bookies favourites based on HEC form.The pressure is all on Ulster to turn us over  

Odds;

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-ulster/winner

Leicester available 8/13, Ulster available 6/4.

I've never placed a bet in my life. I have no idea what that means  
Leicester slight favourites?

Notch wrote:Toulon, Clermont, Munster, Ulster, Leicester... I reckon Toulouse, Saracens and Leinster will complete the draw.

We do not want to be on the road. That as tough a bunch of quarter-finalists as you'll ever see and home advantage will be massive.

Ja. That will be it I reckon. Looks right too.

Notch wrote:

Metal Tiger wrote:Ahhh... playing the underdog card I see.... well I will counter that by saying Ulster are the bookies favourites based on HEC form.The pressure is all on Ulster to turn us over  

Odds;

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/leicester-v-ulster/winner

Leicester available 8/13, Ulster available 6/4.

I've never placed a bet in my life. I have no idea what that means  
Leicester slight favourites?

It means for every £13 placed on Leicester you will get £8 back if they win and for every £4 on Ulster you will get £6 back if they win.  Tigers are indeed favourites by a decent but not huge margin.

But those are also based on where the majority of bets are going as well aren't they? So if more people bet on Leicester they become higher favourites. So often you find difference in betting shop odds based on where they are.

At least that's what I've picked up from all the 'England are favourites for the 6 Nations' bits. More people, more home bets, better odds.

edit: never placed a bet in my life so :shrug

HammerofThunor wrote:But those are also based on where the majority of bets are going as well aren't they? So if more people bet on Leicester they become higher favourites. So often you find difference in betting shop odds based on where they are.

At least that's what I've picked up from all the 'England are favourites for the 6 Nations' bits. More people, more home bets, better odds.

edit: never placed a bet in my life so :shrug

Quite right Hammer, odds are shortened by the volume of bets placed on those odds by the bookies.... to reduce their payout.