Aviva Premieship Round 16 Preview

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Fri 28th Feb 14

19:45 PR Bath Rugby  v   Saracens BT Sport
Well, how do you judge form? Is it results, or is it performance? Saracens shock defeat to London Irish was only their second AP defeat this season. However a team that was running in tries for fun has failed to secure a TBP since they hammered Leicester at the end of last year. Mutterings about performance levels and missed tackles sees some oddly pessimistic Sarries fans. The away team should have a strong lineup on display, with only Owen Farrell likely to be held back by England (BillyV would have been held back – but is now injured).

Bath should see Davey Wilson released to gain more match fitness – and the front row will see the first of some interesting confrontations. ath will hope to have a clear edge here to set up scrum dominance and give a strong back row licence to really play. Sarries will be hoping they can get to work in the line-out. A variety of hookers for Bath this season have struggled at times to hit their jumpers – and Borthwick is still a significant threat in this area.

In the backs things get interesting. Bath will hope to have Ford available and are sweating on injuries to a few players.  Meanwhile on the wings both Strettle and Ashton will be looking to get back into try scoring form.

This is a crucial match for both teams – a Bath win will give them belief that a Home Play-off semi is not an impossible dream. An away win for Saracens and suddenly Recwatchers will be looking nervously over their shoulders. Should Saracens play well the should win, however perform as they have in the last month and we can expect to see the points staying in the spa town.

Bath 8/10, Sarries 11/10 with the bookies


Sat 1st Mar 14

15:00 PR Exeter Chiefs  v   London Irish
The Chiefs have lost 7 of their last 8 AP matches. They have obtained LBPs in 5 of those defeats, but at times a real lack of composure has hurt them. You could say the same about the Irish team that was narrowly beaten last weekend by Leicester, a defeat that ended the little winning streak that has done so much to ease relegation fears.
Can anyone explain what is going on down at Sandy Park? At times Exeter look awesome, then suddenly a switch gets flicked and they look lacklustre and shambolic. They seem to veer from the sublime to the ridiculous several times per match. they will need to make sure the scrum is firing, as this has been a weakness for LI all season. Further injuries to props cannot have helped.
This could be a highly entertaining match, as both teams like to run with the ball. Marland Yarde will be hoping to get a start this week as he comes back from injury and looks to pressure Nowell and May for their England shirts. Tom Johnson knows that a strong performance in this game could well see him in the matchday squad for England v Wales.

Exeter strong favourite on Betfair


15:00 PR Harlequins  v   Worcester Warriors
As Worcester desperately seek a first league win of the season, they will be glad that their visit to the Stoop sees the 2012 Champions missing vital players all the way down the spine of their team. Quins need their front 5 to man up and provide a platform for their backs to utilise. Worcester need to find some resolve, they have the players to worry a stuttering Quins side, but do they have the belief.

Quins massive favourites on Betfair


15:00 PR London Wasps  v   Sale Sharks
Wasps have lost their last 3 matches in a row, though have secured LBPs. In fact they seem highly proficient at just losing matches - 8 LBPs in 9 AP defeats this season. As a team, they have suffered injuries in the back 3 and seem to be getting little direction from half back. Against a stout, but unflashy Sale side - you can expect to see them struggle again. Wasps really need a win to keep hopes of top flight Euro action alive.
Sale still believe they can reach the top 4. They have to win matches like this on the road if that dream - or indeed decent Euro action, is to be realised. For this they need their forwards to be strong, and Cipriani to perform well against his former club.

Bookies unable to separate the two teams


15:15 PR Northampton Saints  v   Gloucester Rugby BT Sport
Saints should still be top of the table at the end of this weekend, as they seek to gain revenge for their only league defeat of the season. In seasons gone by, they have struggled during international windows, but that has not been the case this season. Up front the young guys have really developed nicely, Samu Manoa is as usual excellent and the form of Callum Clark has been incredible. At No8 Dickinson will be hoping to put in the sort of performance that could get him into the England squad for the remaining 6Ns matches. Behind the scrum Myler has been Mr Consistency while real flair is provided by the Pisi boys. they will be missing a shedload of players - yet still look strong.
Gloucester - apparently last week saw a hugely improved performance, which was needed. To call their front 5 powder puff would be no exaggeration, and you can see them being blown away again. Their talented backline needs some ball - and will be desperate for the arrival of Hibbard and Afoa next season. However there is this season still to finish.

Saints strong favourites with the bookies.


Sun 2nd Mar 14

14:00 PR Newcastle Falcons  v   Leicester Tigers BT Sport
When these two met earlier in the season, DoR Dean Richards virtually gifted his former team 5 points by selecting a weakened lineup. He will have seen Leicester's iffy form and surely will not do that again. The Falcons pack has improved markedly as the season has progressed (are the lineout failings still present?) and will be hoping to gain something close to parity with the East Midlanders. If selected Keiron Brookes will hope to show tigers what they let go and strengthen his place back in Falcon's fans hearts.
It is behind the pack that things get interesting. Both sides have struggled to show any fluency this season, with Falcons really struggling to score the points they should with the possession they have. Tigers may include Manu Tuilagi on the bench (his only appearance this season was a strong showing in the reverse fixture) and Cockerill has some tough decisions at 10 and 12. Dan Bowden was a late call up against his former team last week (no reason given for Allens late withdrawal) and did well. Inside him, Williams was solid.

Leicester clear favourites with the bookies

nathan wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:

nathan wrote:Clark being a nobhead once again.

#shocker

Was a bit suprised by bit of "PR" he got in the week. He has a Poopie celebration too.

That was his first try I believe, so has not had chance to practice.

Now I know that Clark is the board's love to hate figure, but his performances on the pitch this season have been outstanding. He would be one of the first names on my AP Team of the Season at this current moment.

The second half of the season certainly, most notably against Leinster, before then I thought he was fairly anonymous

Though in fairness I have not seen nearly every saints match this year

That Stephenson lad looked impressive.

Clark was the well-earned man of the match for Saints today. Led from the front. Did a heck of a lot of hard work. He led a team of 23 players of whom one was 19, one was 20, 3 were 21 and one was 22.

He has been a very positive figure at Saints since he came back from his ban. He has made a lot of effort to move understand and move on. Of course, only time will tell. hopefully he stays on the straight and narrow.

Nathan, Clark is a forward. He should have a poor celebration. Otherwise Rugby as we know it is truly doomed.

By the way, how 'bout Saints Tom Stephenson, our 19 year old who started at Inside Centre today? Pretty solid and mature game, I thought. Saints have youth popping up everywhere now.

Just back from FG and as always it was a welcoming place. We were in that game for the first 60 mins but then Cook butchered an overlap for a run in then it was all Saints after that with an excellent display of forward dominance. In fairness we were only in the game due to Saints' errors, once they sorted themselves out it was terribly one sided.

I thought our backrow put a shift in considering the total lack of front foot ball. Robson and Sharples were excellent in adversity. However, the front row, especially Harden were shocking; Hibbard and Afoa can't arrive soon enough. The biggest pressing need however is the departure of Freddie Burns; the guy is an immense talent but after that performance and total lack of effort I really think he shouldn't play for us again. We're safe from relegation so give his brother game time in no pressure games. If I were a Tigers fans I'd genuinely be concerned; if they can get him back on track he'll be a fabulous signing, but at the moment he'll be another Lamb.

Tbh we haven't buy all our eggs in his basket williams is looking very good, and if bai is coming as rumoured we aren't reliant on him.

Also I remember ford last season at tiers and he was poo sometimes when players are off there head goes in the wrong place who knows.

As said it will be between him and williams.

Williams has grown into the role that Tigers expect over the course of this season. He's in the team on merit ahead of Flood so at the minute Burns will be joining as the second choice and impact sub it will be up to him to force his way into the team, if he doesn't then his rumoured two year deal will either not be renewed or cut short ala Lamb. I hope he comes all guns blazing though, between him and Williams we'd have a great range of creative options.

LondonTiger wrote:

nathan wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:

nathan wrote:Clark being a nobhead once again.

#shocker

Was a bit suprised by bit of "PR" he got in the week. He has a Poopie celebration too.

That was his first try I believe, so has not had chance to practice.

Now I know that Clark is the board's love to hate figure, but his performances on the pitch this season have been outstanding. He would be one of the first names on my AP Team of the Season at this current moment.

I will always have that little bit of distaste for him, just like i do for players that stick there fingers in anothers eye socket. There are some things in life that stain your career and you can never repair that, trying to snap someones arm off is one of them.

Having said all that, it's not lost on me that he seems to have matured and is playing well, he does still look to get a little over excited.

Wow, what a shocking performance from Freddie Burns. He may as well take a leave of absence. And you have to question whether he has the attitude to ever be a success at international level even if he rediscovers some club form.

The contrast between the Saints academy and that of the Tigers is striking. Northampton are developing and playing players of the highest quality. Stephenson will play for England, and Ethan Waller is a future superstar. The only shame is that he can play TH but looks like he wants to add to English rugby's ever growing stock of LHs.

Tigers like to see their players mature more before they step into the first team. It breeds a certain type of player but means we have lost out on a couple of the more creative home grown talent recently. We need to ensure that we retain some of the guys that are coming through on the fringe of the squad at the minute. Thacker, Balmain, Pazquali, Cain, Price, Wells, Owen, Pohe, David and Rhys Williams have all appeared in the LV this season and at ages 19 to 22 they are developing nicely.

Remember that six Tigers academy graduates appeared for the Lions last summer.

Saints are certainly going down the right route for a more sustainable future and are producing some good local talent.

Saints reviewed their academy a few years ago and decided it was substandard. To address this they hired Dusty Hare who was in charge of our Academy at the time. The results are now apparent, and saints and Hare should be applauded.

These things are cyclical, as Sam points out six graduates of the Tigers academy did go on the Lions tour (Youngsx2, Cole, Croft, Manu & 36). While 3 tigers featured in the JWC winning team last summer (Price, Wells and Purdey) it is quite clear that atm Saints are producing more players.

Of course slagging Leicester's use of young players is a recurring them in DaveM's posts. It is a point of view that has some merit, but the constant repetition and sometimes offensive nature of the posts does get rather tedious.

LondonTiger wrote:
Of course slagging Leicester's use of young players is a recurring them in DaveM's posts. It is a point of view that has some merit, but the constant repetition and sometimes offensive nature of the posts does get rather tedious.

I would say at least from my point of view it's dissapointment that's driving DaveM's posts. Tigers could have brought through more players then they have over the last few seasons but instead have focussed on journeymen foreign players to an extent.

Good to see Manu turning out. Not so good to see Tom Youngs missing his first lineout.

Manu's forgotten how to defend and Tait how to catch. 10-3 to Newcastle and Tigers are looking ropey.

The pitch is awful, Manu looks of the pace and keeps jumping out of the line.

Looks like Manu has lost a bit of weight too.

Is that Daws commentating? he's as annoying as hell!

Given his injury he would have struggled to do any upper body work to keep up mass there

ChequeredJersey wrote:Given his injury he would have struggled to do any upper body work to keep up mass there

very true indeed

Falcons are looking pretty good at the minute although we're probably making them look good.

Same with us vs Wuss yesterday, it's the score at 80 mins that matters, don't lose hope



On the other hand, come on Falcons!

No chance of a fat prop to pull out of that tackle lol although i wish he wouldnt clench his fist, makes it look like a swinging arm

Crane is having a good game so far.

Get in Goneva, pure class and we've relied on him alot.

Ayerza looks like he's asleep. Runs past Williams pass to send him through a massive gap after fumbling an offload to Benny that would have been an easy walk in.

Manu looks rusty, nowhere near an England return. Tom Youngs threw the first lineout crooked but has been on the money with each one after that. The 9/10 combo looks good for Tigers.

The pitch is a mess, looks like an amateur park job not a professional outfit.

Magical try from Goneva.

nathan wrote:Is that Daws commentating? he's as annoying as hell!

Yep, far and away the worst thing on BT.

Blair suggesting that teams near the top get the decisions from the refs - surely thats bring the game into disrepute?

BT are saying that Goneva to Castres is confirmed? Didnt realise that, knew was likely but still a shame to lose a player of such talent.

Manu's Boxing Coach wrote:BT are saying that Goneva to Castres is confirmed? Didnt realise that, knew was likely but still a shame to lose a player of such talent.

news to me too, shame i thought he was going to sign a 2 year contract

Daglo saying we get the luck of the calls once again.

nathan wrote:Blair suggesting that teams near the top get the decisions from the refs - surely thats bring the game into disrepute?

Or simply a statement of fact.

Ozzy3213 wrote:

nathan wrote:Blair suggesting that teams near the top get the decisions from the refs - surely thats bring the game into disrepute?

Or simply a statement of fact.

How can you prove it's a statement of fact? It's an opinion, nothing more.

How can you prove it's not?   

Ozzy3213 wrote:How can you prove it's not?   

It's not me making the accusation, you need to prove it first!   

I don't need to prove anything, this is a sports forum not a court of law!   

Ozzy3213 wrote:I don't need to prove anything, this is a sports forum not a court of law!   

lol, i know. I was just saying it's not a fact. it's an opinion.

Manu's Boxing Coach wrote:BT are saying that Goneva to Castres is confirmed? Didnt realise that, knew was likely but still a shame to lose a player of such talent.

 It isn't they has been a pre deal.

 But Goneva waiting to see if tigers can match it apparently nothing confirmed.

 Expect it to happen though.

Well from hereon in I shall be putting FACT after it, which in any court means it definitely true!!!   


In all seriousness, the top sides do tend to appear to get the rub of the green more often than not. It's human nature for referees to fall back on their own preconceptions when they are not 100% sure of a decision, and the preconseption is likely to be that the top sides are better (which effectively they are, otherwise they wouldn't be at the top).

Matera is playing well

Ozzy3213 wrote:Well from hereon in I shall be putting FACT after it, which in any court means it definitely true!!!   


In all seriousness, the top sides do tend to appear to get the rub of the green more often than not.  It's human nature for referees to fall back on their own preconceptions when they are not 100% sure of a decision, and the preconseption is likely to be that the top sides are better (which effectively they are, otherwise they wouldn't be at the top).  

stop being silly!

the top teams are usually the ones going forward

too busy whining to the ref when it's their own mistake.

should be a pen try that.

on seeing the replay you couldn't be 100% sure.

I think that's very harsh.

Good job the hooker sorted that out from another error from Blair.

blimey, the wind is bad down there.

Good finish by Lawson, he's looked impressive when carrying. Can't make my mind up on the Youngs yellow.

surely the hands went backwards?

tackling woeful from the falcons there.

Considering the laid back attitude from refs towards forward passes this season, that seems harsh.