Why England v Wales is the most important match this year

First topic message reminder :

1. This England team have 30% inprovement available just through returnees from injury
2. England's curve is upward even with injuries
3. Wales have stagnated
4. Wales have little in the way of fringe players with serious claims to making the international team
5. Wales and England both share the pool of death 2015

Wales will need to beat England and beat them handsomely to have any confidence of progressing next year. Whereas if England stay even within 7 points and continue to perform well, then the chances of escaping their pool look high given the two teams differential in proven ability to beat Australia.

I'm picking England to avenge last years humiliation. For Wales to repeat it, would be a powerful statement likely to "put England back in their box" and reverse a few years worth of progress. A Wales demolition job on England would sent them back to a drawing board devoid of the tools to produce a plan B.

Simply no other match has quite so much hinging on it.

'Potential' is something you stuff into a rocket called the future and light the fuse.  
Does it get into orbit?  
Does it do an arc and land 500 metres away in tiny pieces?  
Does it explode in mid-air due to engineering failures that weren't seen during testing?

Nobody knows.  You can't test for engineering errors in the present that you'll only pick up on in the future.

To me - as an outside observer of the two sides.  I've already stated that England look the most complete team this year - and that was after the French loss and my opinion hasn't changed.  But I've also said I don't really see where the massive percentage increases in performance can come from either - the 'potential', if you will.  
They're pretty much hitting flat out at times this season.  They're not holding back many secrets of the intensity they want to bring or showing many varying gameplans.

Wales...they seem to me to be playing off-the-boil for the entire duration.  But being on-the-boil is when they become more than the sum of their individual parts.  They are a side surprisingly driven more by instincts and emotion than anything that would try to anchor them down as boringly GatBall.  They are a lot more than Gatland - in a sense, grim Gatland organisation often holds their more mercurial spirit in check.

So - England performing well and consistently and still in the running for a Championship
Wales performing in a form-lull and still in the running for a Championship

Potential as it relates to either side?  Who knows.  That's the future.  Sunday being the first date of trials.

Scratch - Wales have done everything needed to beat SH sides, except actually beat them. It has been such a consistent aspect of this squad's performances that the question of what they are missing has to be asked - but I've not yet seen a tangible answer of what they can change. The truth is, they will need to find it pretty soon or they will be in a rebuilding phase.

Over the last 3 years, they have done better than England - but not by as much as the results would suggest. The last game at Twickenham turned on a ripped ball and a try not given. Last year, England and Wales each lost a game and I felt that several of Wales's performances were as bad as England's - just good enough to scrape by. The real difference between the two sides was the final 20 minutes in Cardiff, after England had been ground down by the inability to .

Fly - I would say that the difference in potential is in England's error rate. England have conceded tries through inexperience and failed to score them through lack of composure. Those will be fixed as the players get more used to each other.

Poorfour wrote:Scratch - Wales have done everything needed to beat SH sides, except actually beat them. It has been such a consistent aspect of this squad's performances that the question of what they are missing has to be asked - but I've not yet seen a tangible answer of what they can change. The truth is, they will need to find it pretty soon or they will be in a rebuilding phase.

Over the last 3 years, they have done better than England - but not by as much as the results would suggest. The last game at Twickenham turned on a ripped ball and a try not given. Last year, England and Wales each lost a game and I felt that several of Wales's performances were as bad as England's - just good enough to scrape by. The real difference between the two sides was the final 20 minutes in Cardiff, after England had been ground down by the inability to ………?

Fly - I would say that the difference in potential is in England's error rate. England have conceded tries through inexperience and failed to score them through lack of composure. Those will be fixed as the players get more used to each other.

Finish?   

I love it when losing fans start to trivialize their loss by saying things like 'turned on a ripped ball and a try not given'

Williams ripped your monster Lawes, ran in a cracking try from the 10m….and the 'not given' try was 'not given' as a try because it was not a try.

Wlaes may have performed as badly as England last year, in 2012, 2008, 2005 whenever, fact is they won the championship, they keep doing it and that means they are far far ahead of England. All that hold them back is SH wins and i still believe that consistency of management is key, with Gatland on board and not on tour, then we have a much greater opportunity to address that. Time will tell.

Moral victories all round then.

Poorfour wrote:

Fly - I would say that the difference in potential is in England's error rate. England have conceded tries through inexperience and failed to score them through lack of composure. Those will be fixed as the players get more used to each other.

But that's not just thought patterns that change those things from negative to positive, Poorfour.  

It's work, it's concentration, it's disciplin, it's controlling instincts.  And when you knuckle down to fixing loopholes, you take energy from elsewhere.  That's physics.  Composure means often slowing down a degree, often making sure you have support in the right places, thinking of when and where to pass more precisely.  Slowing down, slowing down - and losing something that pace provided in order to bolster something that perhaps too much pace and energy overlooked or bypassed.  

So when potential is rated as tiding up errors, it can also mean losing the potency of something else.  And we're back to the unknowability of potential.

Paul O'Connell was talking only recently about the idea that thinking too much in a game (as in getting the techincal aspects right and following coaching instructions to the letter) can lose you the potency of simply playing with intensity created by unscientific desire.  His point was that thinking too much can lessen the all out energy you bring to impacts and contact.

GloriousEmpire wrote:Moral victories all round then.

Sadly they are devalued this year.

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

GloriousEmpire wrote:Moral victories all round then.

Sadly they are devalued this year.

Ah! Building and taking the positives?

GloriousEmpire wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

GloriousEmpire wrote:Moral victories all round then.

Sadly they are devalued this year.

Ah! Building and taking the positives?

You two really should set up your own forum   

SecretFly wrote:

Poorfour wrote:

Fly - I would say that the difference in potential is in England's error rate. England have conceded tries through inexperience and failed to score them through lack of composure. Those will be fixed as the players get more used to each other.

But that's not just thought patterns that change those things from negative to positive, Poorfour.  

It's work, it's concentration, it's disciplin, it's controlling instincts.  And when you knuckle down to fixing loopholes, you take energy from elsewhere.  That's physics.  Composure means often slowing down a degree, often making sure you have support in the right places, thinking of when and where to pass more precisely.  Slowing down, slowing down - and losing something that pace provided in order to bolster something that perhaps too much pace and energy overlooked or bypassed.  

So when potential is rated as tiding up errors, it can also mean losing the potency of something else.  And we're back to the unknowability of potential.

Paul O'Connell was talking only recently about the idea that thinking too much in a game (as in getting the techincal aspects right and following coaching instructions to the letter) can lose you the potency of simply playing with intensity created by unscientific desire.  His point was that thinking too much can lessen the all out energy you bring to impacts and contact.

SCW just interviewed Lnacaster, no mention of TCUP but Lancaster alluded to a growing leadership group which SCW indicated was key - the best manifestation of this being the way in which england maneuvered into position for jonny's drop goal.

Scratch wrote:

GloriousEmpire wrote:

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:

GloriousEmpire wrote:Moral victories all round then.

Sadly they are devalued this year.

Ah! Building and taking the positives?

You two really should set up your own forum   

Would you come scratch?

Scratch wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Poorfour wrote:

Fly - I would say that the difference in potential is in England's error rate. England have conceded tries through inexperience and failed to score them through lack of composure. Those will be fixed as the players get more used to each other.

But that's not just thought patterns that change those things from negative to positive, Poorfour.  

It's work, it's concentration, it's disciplin, it's controlling instincts.  And when you knuckle down to fixing loopholes, you take energy from elsewhere.  That's physics.  Composure means often slowing down a degree, often making sure you have support in the right places, thinking of when and where to pass more precisely.  Slowing down, slowing down - and losing something that pace provided in order to bolster something that perhaps too much pace and energy overlooked or bypassed.  

So when potential is rated as tiding up errors, it can also mean losing the potency of something else.  And we're back to the unknowability of potential.

Paul O'Connell was talking only recently about the idea that thinking too much in a game (as in getting the techincal aspects right and following coaching instructions to the letter) can lose you the potency of simply playing with intensity created by unscientific desire.  His point was that thinking too much can lessen the all out energy you bring to impacts and contact.

SCW just interviewed Lnacaster, no mention of TCUP but Lancaster alluded to a growing leadership group which SCW indicated was key - the best manifestation of this being the way in which england maneuvered into position for jonny's drop goal.

Jonny who?

GE you make a compelling argument but you forget something.

when the score is 1-1 in NZ v Eng...

You will then Know 100% what is the most important game is this year!

GunsGerms wrote:

GloriousEmpire wrote:1. This England team have 30% inprovement available just through returnees from injury
2. England's curve is upward even with injuries

All teams have injuries. Ireland's are just as bad as Englands for example.

GloriousEmpire wrote:
3. Wales have stagnated

Judge them after this match.

GloriousEmpire wrote:
4. Wales have little in the way of fringe players with serious claims to making the international team

Wales were runner up in the 2013 IRB under 20 world cup final. Surely they have good young players coming through.

GloriousEmpire wrote:
5. Wales and England both share the pool of death 2015

Wales will need to beat England and beat them handsomely to have any confidence of progressing next year. Whereas if England stay even within 7 points and continue to perform well, then the chances of escaping their pool look high given the two teams differential in proven ability to beat Australia.

I'm picking England to avenge last years humiliation.  For Wales to repeat it, would be a powerful statement likely to "put England back in their box" and reverse a few years worth of progress. A Wales demolition job on England would sent them back to a drawing board devoid of the tools to produce a plan B.

Simply no other match has quite so much hinging on it.

All the top four head to head games in the six nations have as much hindging on it. Ireland and France play on the last day which is a potential championship decider and both teams are in the same group. How does that game not have as much riding on it?

For a little more up to date perspective, they've just been hammered by England.

Mmmm, i suppose that isn't a WUM at all.   

Scratch wrote:Mmmm, i suppose that isn't a WUM at all.   

Who?

Mystir

The most important game of the year is always the All Blacks next game. and if it gets 1-1 it'll be more than important.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/26490042

LAncaster agrees. He clearly reads my posts for my insight.

DeludedOptimistorjustDave wrote:Your 40!
No kidding I always thought you must be around 17 years old.

He was 33 a couple of years ago.  

See what we've done? The Picture of Dorian Gray... Ghost.  

However, back on topic...

A very important match for both teams, yes... but not necessarily the most important. Regardless of the outcome (or whatever the outcome) this match will of course only increase the pressure cooker nature in the lead up to next year's big clash. For both sides.

If England win: they will sure feel as though they are on the road towards something special. Not sure that there is 30% improvement possible even with the injured players coming back. Not a huge worry though since the replacement players have stepped into the breach fairly well and are clocking up more big game time... precisely what they need.

It wouldn't be the end for Wales (in the above scenario) either if it's a respectable loss by a few points. They are more than capable of re-addressing their game plan and won't require any extra motivation to have another crack at England next year. It will be fun on here that's for sure!

Should Wales win: then they will feel as though they do have even more of a mental edge as well as a tried and trusted game plan (for the time being) as well as the right cattle to account for England. However, they'll also need to keep moving forward and developing their plans and tactics in order to counter the expected England response to the loss. England won't need any motivation either! That should also be fun on here!!

However, I tend to see things the way Biltong does - it's still too far out and too many things can change between now and the Pool match next year. Whoever wins or loses has time on their hands to consolidate/change/adapt for the bigger matches that lie ahead.

With all this focus on this mighty 6N clash - Australia will no doubt be observing and quietly soaking it all in. Quite a good place to be in actually... the Wallabies will almost be the dark horse in many respects (albeit a fairly large dark one). Respect to Fiji though. Let's not forget them either.

I think the Wallabies would prefer to see a Wales win... and see evidence of a chink in the England armour and some rubble tumble from the highest castellations of Fortress Twickenham... and SL having to call for reinforcements/new tactics as he alters the planned pathway to RWC 2015.

Oz would therefore - and will be - even more keen to preserve their recent record against Wales. There has always massive respect there (so too with England) and we'd have to come up with a special plan to nullify any Welsh progress and confidence should they win tonight.

If England win - the Wallabies would be just as wary of course. Both the challenge to beat them in the Pool match at HQ and the reward for doing so would be far greater, imo. I think they would also like it that way to be honest. Of course, they would still have to be very wary of a Wales team smarting from defeat and who will be itching (even more) to burst the losing streak bubble and who are always a massive danger when all cylinders are firing at once with their tails up.

So many permutations aren't there? We'll all be a little wiser on Sunday.  

TBH i think next years 6 nations is more relevant to the pools.. Even though this one is at twickenham- its all about the momentum. If Wales end up being 5-0 on England.. That is worrying.. Aus will be something like 10-0 on Wales,

ARe england Aus playing before?

Just another game. In fact if Ireland win the rest, it may just be 2 bald men fighting over a comb - 2nd, 3rd, meh.

Barney McGrew did it wrote:Just another game. In fact if Ireland win the rest, it may just be 2 bald men fighting over a comb - 2nd, 3rd, meh.

Unless England can win by more- then no it certainly isnt over..

Off course that may take a 40 pt win v italy- But stranger things have happened

Ireland win in France then its their championship.

well Ireland have just won by 39- so we need to make up something like 70 odd pts in the last two games if Ireland beat France!!

I cant really see that happening!! but they did get those pts advantages of the two teams we have to play!

For me, all the ifs, buts and maybes don't mean a thing. Whether it's World Cup year, for the Triple Crown or for Grand Slams, it really doesn't matter – I want Wales to beat England EVERY TIME they play! It's a shame I won't be at Twickenham, as I was two years ago, because I have a feeling it's going to be a repeat performance....

"I want Wales to beat England EVERY TIME they play!"

I want England to win every game they play against anyone.

I want Bombers head on a stick, but we have to learn that we can't always get what we want.

Still? I think the teams coming on and improving.

No 7&1/2 wrote:Still? I think the teams coming on and improving.

no 7 & 1/2 Twelvetrees proved me wrong. You were right. Twelvetrees showed his "playmaking" skills and played well vs Wales.

beshocked wrote:

No 7&1/2 wrote:Still? I think the teams coming on and improving.

no 7 & 1/2 Twelvetrees proved me wrong.  You were right. Twelvetrees showed his "playmaking" skills and played well vs Wales.

Probably 36's best game in an England shirt so far. I am also willing to admit that Farrell had a generally good game - still kicks too much but actually, it was the right thing to do in the context of this match, so no complaints there.

Sorry beshocked aimed that at king who's been after Lancaster's head for a while. Just wanted his take on the general aim and direction we're going in.

Twelvetrees did show what he can do but it needs to be carried on. I've never disagreed with your general thoughts on the matter; that's his best performance by far.

nathan wrote:
For a little more up to date perspective, they've just been hammered by England.

It is surely a different team to the 2013 crop?