Indian Wells 2014 - 15 March

First topic message reminder :

STADIUM 1 Start 12:00 noon

[28] Alexandr Dolgopolov (UKR) v [7] Roger Federer (SUI)

[12] John Isner (USA) v [2] Novak Djokovic (SRB)

[1] Su-Wei Hsieh (TPE)
Shuai Peng (CHN)
v
[5] Cara Black (ZIM)
Sania Mirza (IND)

Not Before 5:30 pm

[1] Bob Bryan (USA) Mike Bryan (USA) v [2] Alexander Peya (AUT) Bruno Soares (BRA)

The ATP Singles are two excellent matches on the cards.  

IW 2012 SF saw an upset when Isner beat Djokovic in a third set TB. Can Isner repeat the feat?

Dolgopolov is playing some fantastic tennis, but can he beat the Old Man?

Enjoy!

Henman Bill wrote:It's not quite at the class of Amrit's Nadal 8th favourite for the French open, but it's not far off.

Jeez, is that what I sound like?! 

HM Murdoch wrote:Do you expect him to increase his rate as he turns 27 and 28?

Quite possibly yes.  I think many close matches are decided to a great extent on luck.  He only won one of those slams, but he could have easily won 2-3, had he got a couple of bounces here or there.  I think if he continues to play well - and I do not see why he would not play reasonably well - he is likely yo have luck on his side at least occasionally.

I am not saying he will go on a tear and win another 6 slams - even when he was on his hot run, I always thought he was more likely to stop short of 10 slams than to get there - but I would be surprised if he does not win at least one more.

Jahu wrote:I mean, I don't like Djoko much, but what HM is talking, defies logic. Nonsense.   

What do you think the flaw in my reasoning is? It's not like he's been harvesting slams for the last two years.

Jahu wrote:I mean, I don't like Djoko much

Good that you say that; I would not have noticed otherwise.

Hahhahah   

HM, your reasoning is same as Fed/Nadal fans on 2011/2012.

- How is Djoko kicking ass all over,
- Why can't Fed/Nadal beat him.

So Fed got the W, then No:1 etc etc, and Nadal made a great comeback last year.

So nothing lasts too long in tennis, so your reasoning needs to be a little more forgiving.

Maybe. But I think other people are being too forgiving. I think 2011 still burns too brightly in the memory.

We can go back to the clay swing of 2012 and people were wondering what's up with Novak, why is he having these lapses? Almost two years later and we are still asking the same thing!

For all of last year, Roger won one 250 title and was in the finals of a Masters 1000 and a 500 tournament.

He already surpassed that this year - 500 title and finals of a Masters 1000 and a 250.

That does defy logic. He lost to Wawrinka and Federer this year prior to this match and both are in great form and went on to take the title. Let's not forget that Djokovic Fi.usher the year with something of streak. He's tinkering with his game a bit now. Going forward where he used to grind out a point. It's a change that will upset his game in the interim but pay off in the long term. I have always felt that Note has the ability to play a,much more attacking game than he has relied on to win his majors. I realise there is not evidence to support that feeling in recent years but I believe it.

Choosing Becker was interesting to me and a positive sign for what he intends to do with his game. Give it 6 months I say

summerblues wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:It's not quite at the class of Amrit's Nadal 8th favourite for the French open, but it's not far off.

That was classic  

"or 9th, depending on Almagro's form."

It was indeed classic stuff from Amrit.

A little off-topic from current happenings at IW, but the forum seems a little quiet at the moment, so thought I would include this from last year in case of interest to others.

I would not normally share the contents of PM's, but as the actual material is far from 'private', I feel comfortable in reproducing a couple of (edited) exchanges I had with Amrit at the time of those bizarre assessments of Nadal's RG prospects .........

(The promise by Amrit "to get back to you by tomorrow evening" was never actually followed up......)

"User 774433
lags72 Sat Jun 08, 2013 9:58 pm
Hi Lags,
Hope you're keeping well

Just wanted to let you know that I have now decided to retract my comment that Nadal is seventh favourite for the RG title. In lieu of recent events and increasing public pressure, I am prepared to admit that I underestimated the position of Rafa as one of the favourites.

Thus, I have decided to upgrade him to sixth favourite.

Cheers,
Amritia"

"Thanks for your message, yes I am keeping well thanks, and hope you are too.

As I think you might be aware, I always try to take the wider view whilst maintaining a sense of perspective and open-minded sort of philosophy.

However, I couldn't help noticing that you posted this PM at 9.11pm GMT, by which time it had become established beyond doubt that there remain just two players with the potential to win the Men's Championship at RG 2013.

Following a very impressive performance in his semi-final match, one of these two just happens to be Rafa Nadal (surprise surprise ..... who could possibly have guessed it, I wonder ....??  )

This being the case, I think we can safely say that to place a player as "sixth favourite" in what is now a two-man field might just lack a certain credibility factor.

All the best  
lags72"

Then ......

Amritia to me :

"Hmmm

You raise an interesting point, no doubt, and I will consider it at great length.

It has appeared to me that it may be possible that my new favourite numbers are lacking a bit of steel, but I assure you I will think about it and get back to you tomorrow evening

Cheers,
Amritia"

Henman Bill wrote:It's not quite at the class of Amrit's Nadal 8th favourite for the French open, but it's not far off.

Agreed tats the worst ever gimmick played in 606v2, Nadal 8th fav for FO, even people who doesn't know much about Tennis know very well Nadal can win FO in the mid sleep.

Steady on HM, take 2013 alone, djokovic won the oz open, reached the final of both us open and Wimbledon and nearly beat nadal in semis of the French. He won the world tour finals going unbeaten for the 2nd year in a row and won 3 other masters series. I think he had a very good 2013. The guy has spent over 100 weeks at world number one since 2011, that is an amazing feat given the competition. During that time he has a winning record against pretty much every player on tour.

For sure he has lost some big matches and had some mental lapses but this happens to all top players. He will bounce back, just needs to get a few lucky breaks that are not falling for him over the past few months, he could so easily have won that wawrinka match in oz and nadal match at French 2013 would probably now have another slam or two to his name. Such small margins but a lot of luck involved.

Djokovic will come good again and I am still hopeful he will make the 10 slam mark in his career

Steady on HM, take 2013 alone, djokovic won the oz open, reached the final of both us open and Wimbledon and nearly beat nadal in semis of the French. He won the world tour finals going unbeaten for the 2nd year in a row and won 3 other masters series. I think he had a very good 2013. The guy has spent over 100 weeks at world number one since 2011, that is an amazing feat given the competition. During that time he has a winning record against pretty much every player on tour.

For sure he has lost some big matches and had some mental lapses but this happens to all top players. He will bounce back, just needs to get a few lucky breaks that are not falling for him over the past few months, he could so easily have won that wawrinka match in oz and nadal match at French 2013 would probably now have another slam or two to his name. Such small margins but a lot of luck involved.

Djokovic will come good again and I am still hopeful he will make the 10 slam mark in his career

lags, that makes a lot more sense than some extended debates I've had with Amrit. I'd go so far as to say placing Nadal 6th favourite in a two horse race was towards the more rational end of his scale.

On this Djokovic thing, I maintained in 2012 that he was having a 2011, except some tiny swings that went for him them are going against (the best example being that in 2011 "The Slap" went in, whereas it didn't the next year).

I still think it's very close and let's be honest, at IW he goes into the final as favourite regardless because the guy is still an awesome 'wall' and just won't be passed.

bogbrush wrote:lags, that makes a lot more sense than some extended debates I've had with Amrit. I'd go so far as to say placing Nadal 6th favourite in a two horse race was towards the more rational end of his scale.

You could well be right !

I do know we had a more serious falling-out some time after those jokey exchanges, on a completely different issue (one which escapes me right now .....). And the constant change in user names by "Amritia" etc etc always struck me as very bizarre, and - dare I say - disingenuous.

summerblues wrote:

HM Murdoch wrote:Do you expect him to increase his rate as he turns 27 and 28?

Quite possibly yes.  I think many close matches are decided to a great extent on luck.  He only won one of those slams, but he could have easily won 2-3, had he got a couple of bounces here or there.  I think if he continues to play well - and I do not see why he would not play reasonably well - he is likely yo have luck on his side at least occasionally.

I am not saying he will go on a tear and win another 6 slams - even when he was on his hot run, I always thought he was more likely to stop short of 10 slams than to get there - but I would be surprised if he does not win at least one more.

I would be surprised if he doesn't reach 10 slams. It's basically one slam a year for the next 4 years and he's too good a player not to manage that.

Disappointing final really. Would have been great to see new names in the final but I guess it justs shows the top 4, on form, are still a massive step ahead of the rest of the tour.

bogbrush wrote:On this Djokovic thing, I maintained in 2012 that he was having a 2011, except some tiny swings that went for him them are going against (the best example being that in 2011 "The Slap" went in, whereas it didn't the next year).

I still think it's very close and let's be honest, at IW he goes into the final as favourite regardless because the guy is still an awesome 'wall' and just won't be passed.

I agree to an extent. 2011 was a prime example of the narrow margins all going a player's way.

I think where I differ to many is I don't see that, and their subsequent turn against him, as much to do with luck. The post-2011 defeats have not been down to the bounce of a ball or an unlucky net cord, they've been due to him not playing well in big moments. I don't as yet see reason to expect a change in this.

Besides, I argued that 2011 was down to great play so it would be disingenuous if I then start claiming the losses are just bad luck!

As for the final, this court would normally favour Novak but Federer is the better player at present.

Born Slippy wrote:Disappointing final really. Would have been great to see new names in the final but I guess it justs shows the top 4, on form, are still a massive step ahead of the rest of the tour.

And from which it seems clear that - regardless of what the rankings may currently say - the 'Top Four' are still er.......the 'Top Four' .......  

I for one would have loved to see Dolgo make it through, but still to prove himself at the very highest level it seems.

BS: one slam a year for the next four years, for a player who is 27 years old, sounds pretty daunting to me. I am not saying he will definitely not make it but he did win one slam out of the last eight while being overall in a pretty good form, so it is not all that easy.

I doubt Dolgo will ever prove himself at the highest level. He did yesterday what he always does - hit some nice shots, and made plenty of wild errors.

He will have days where things kind of click and he manages to keep the errors in check but day-in-day-out I doubt he will ever be playing much better than he has historically been playing.

Well if your verdict on Dolgo is correct summerblues (and there's every chance it is ....) then it's a little depressing as regards the ongoing wait for some fresh faces at the very top.

But we CAN be a lot more optimistic in the case of Grigor's rise and further prospects....surely ....?

Lags, Dolgo is not that young anymore, when I am looking for fresh faces, I think most of them will have to come from among guys younger than him. There may be cases like Stan who seems to have improved significantly at an older age, but I think those will remain rare.

Grigor is my big young hope for this year. I expect him to be (quite comfortably) in top 10 by the end of the year. Unlike Dolgo who to me looks pretty much the same as always, Dimi has clearly been working on his weaknesses - his stamina and movement are far better than they used to be.

Other than Dimi, it looks quite bleak to me on the youngster front. So maybe it will have to be guys around Dolgo's age that will hopefully step it up too. But even if they do, I just cannot see Dolgo being the one - as I said, I do not really see that much improvement in his game.

S-blues. I wouldn't judge Dolgo by his "actual" age. With the emphasis on fitness and durability, and with the old guard far from giving up, today's 20-24 year olds are, effectively the previous decades teenagers.
You are just not seeing teenagers making much, or any, impression on the rankings and it's likely to remain that way - at least for a while.
The fact that those well into their 30s are still doing the business suggests there is still plenty of time for the early-20s brigade to make their mark.
Yes, it's nice to see some new faces on the final weekends of tournaments. But the old mugs are still around !

With Federer's resurgence, and assuming Murray can get back to something like his best or near-best, it's looking more & more like the Big Four will eventually fade from the scene due purely to Father Time rather than being summarily displaced any time soon by 'new' faces.

These are, after all, the same Big Four who occupied the number 1-4 ranking spots way back in September 2008 .....!!

As for Fed himself .....if the current purple patch turns out to be sustainable, and he can maintain this sort of level for another year or so, then I would have to concede that his personal target of appearing at Rio Olympics 2016 - which I have until now regarded as VERY far-fetched - is well within reach.

lags72 wrote:I think the only winner outside the old Big Four in years (maybe still the same Big Four ...... ??) was David Ferrer - and Daveed has been around so damn long that he's virtually an honorary member of the band......

summerblues wrote:Yes, I was checking the other day - Ferrer is the only Masters 1000 winner outside the big 4 in the last three years.  The big 4 split them something like this (I may be off a bit): Nole - 11, Rafa - 8, Roger - 4, Andy - 3.

This may not fit SB's criteria quite well, but...

2009 - Davydenko (Shanghai)
2010 - Ljubicic (IW), Roddick (Miami), Soderling (MiamiParis)
2012 - Ferrer (Paris)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_World_Tour_Masters_1000

Just shows that "Top 4" have been dominant, not just at slams, but also at the next lower level, i.e., the Masters series.

2011 may as well be Djokovic Masters series, an amazing run (including clay).

laverfan wrote:

lags72 wrote:I think the only winner outside the old Big Four in years (maybe still the same Big Four ...... ??) was David Ferrer - and Daveed has been around so damn long that he's virtually an honorary member of the band......

summerblues wrote:Yes, I was checking the other day - Ferrer is the only Masters 1000 winner outside the big 4 in the last three years.  The big 4 split them something like this (I may be off a bit): Nole - 11, Rafa - 8, Roger - 4, Andy - 3.

This may not fit SB's criteria quite well, but...

2009 - Davydenko (Shanghai)
2010 - Ljubicic (IW), Roddick (Miami), Soderling (MiamiParis)
2012 - Ferrer (Paris)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_World_Tour_Masters_1000

Just shows that "Top 4" have been dominant, not just at slams, but also at the next lower level, i.e., the Masters series.

2011 may as well be Djokovic Masters series, an amazing run (including clay).

I'm still speechless to this day.

@TSJ... I corrected my post as well as the quoted version. Apologies.

Yes, Ljubicic was a crazy one.

No apology necessary

sirfredperry wrote:S-blues. I wouldn't judge Dolgo by his "actual" age. With the emphasis on fitness and durability, and with the old guard far from giving up, today's 20-24 year olds are, effectively the previous decades teenagers.

I am not fully sold on this.  Yes, I see that the field is getting older and no teenagers are pocketing slams, but I think the theory is oversold a bit.

Specifically with Dolgo, he is 25 and only 18 months younger than Nole and Andy.  It is not like those two just burst onto the scene the last 6-12 months or so.

Djokovic had another brain fart to make the match scary. Something is up with him somebody said that anyone can beat Djokovic or Murray that is pretty funny have you seen Djokovic's record against players outside the top 4? Of course these type of individuals live in fantasy land.

bogbrush wrote:On this Djokovic thing, I maintained in 2012 that he was having a 2011, except some tiny swings that went for him them are going against (the best example being that in 2011 "The Slap" went in, whereas it didn't the next year).

I still think it's very close and let's be honest, at IW he goes into the final as favourite regardless because the guy is still an awesome 'wall' and just won't be passed.

It wasn't the Slap, it is "The shot" get the terminology correct BB when discuss tennis history. As for Amrit it is a loss to the site that he isn't posting. I think Djoko is the favorite against Fed on this court at this stage in their careers that is pretty fair but Novak's form has been pretty poor this season so I don't think it is as a heavy favorite.

It was more a slap than shot. Let's say "Slapshot". Or "Slappyshot".

It was a shot but I think he is just teasing you.

Anyway, the fact that he saved 2 MPS then won then saved 2 MPs then won the next year then saved 4 MPs to beat Tsonga at the FO in another match, they weren't all lucky slaps....

OK, so I see no thread for today, I think I am going to put it up.

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:On this Djokovic thing, I maintained in 2012 that he was having a 2011, except some tiny swings that went for him them are going against (the best example being that in 2011 "The Slap" went in, whereas it didn't the next year).

I still think it's very close and let's be honest, at IW he goes into the final as favourite regardless because the guy is still an awesome 'wall' and just won't be passed.

It wasn't the Slap, it is "The shot" get the terminology correct BB when discuss tennis history. As for Amrit it is a loss to the site that he isn't posting. I think Djoko is the favorite against Fed on this court at this stage in their careers that is pretty fair but Novak's form has been pretty poor this season so I don't think it is as a heavy favorite.

Have to agree with all of that. You'd have to be a big Federer fan to diminish the brilliance of that return. Amrit was a fantastic poster. I don't know the ins and outs of why he left but it's a shame that someone with such tennis knowledge felt compelled to leave.

Born Slippy wrote:

socal1976 wrote:

bogbrush wrote:On this Djokovic thing, I maintained in 2012 that he was having a 2011, except some tiny swings that went for him them are going against (the best example being that in 2011 "The Slap" went in, whereas it didn't the next year).

I still think it's very close and let's be honest, at IW he goes into the final as favourite regardless because the guy is still an awesome 'wall' and just won't be passed.

It wasn't the Slap, it is "The shot" get the terminology correct BB when discuss tennis history. As for Amrit it is a loss to the site that he isn't posting. I think Djoko is the favorite against Fed on this court at this stage in their careers that is pretty fair but Novak's form has been pretty poor this season so I don't think it is as a heavy favorite.

Have to agree with all of that. You'd have to be a big Federer fan to diminish the brilliance of that return. Amrit was a fantastic poster. I don't know the ins and outs of why he left but it's a shame that someone with such tennis knowledge felt compelled to leave.

Our dear friend BB as a vile capitalist lacks the ability to appreciate the purely sensual beauty of the shot. I do feel for him especially since he told Mrs. BB dresses him and I found that very romantic and endearing. Amritia was joking with the 8th favorite and doing a little goosing of his own. I have been guilty of much worse behavior. That return is about the only single shot that anyone remembers 3 years after the fact. But the fed BJ league runs strong with the force on this site.

socal1976 wrote:But the fed BJ league runs strong with the force on this site

What a load of BS

JuliusHMarx wrote:

socal1976 wrote:But the fed BJ league runs strong with the force on this site

What a load of BS

BJ or BS? Who knows? One notable thing that is clearly noticeable to the observant is how bolshe some posters become when Federer is back in a semblance of form. By that I mean we get brash and outlandish comments after perhaps a year of peacefulness. Just an observation. I never note such behaviour when Murray is in fine form or Novak or even Rafa.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

socal1976 wrote:But the fed BJ league runs strong with the force on this site

What a load of BS

BJ or BS? Who knows? One notable thing that is clearly noticeable to the observant is how bolshe some posters become when Federer is back in a semblance of form. By that I mean we get brash and outlandish comments after perhaps a year of peacefulness. Just an observation. I never note such behaviour when Murray is in fine form or Novak or even Rafa.

That may be true CC - us Murray followers are the most well-behaved breed IMHO
I think my point was more that the forum (from an admin pov) is equally open and welcoming to fans of all players.

Yes, but Fed is Fed, so when he plays good, its god almighty pleasing the world with tennis magic  

So when Murray and Rafa play good, its kind of expected from them as they are younger.

When Djoko plays good, its only 3 people in the world that care  

JuliusHMarx wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:

JuliusHMarx wrote:

socal1976 wrote:But the fed BJ league runs strong with the force on this site

What a load of BS

BJ or BS? Who knows? One notable thing that is clearly noticeable to the observant is how bolshe some posters become when Federer is back in a semblance of form. By that I mean we get brash and outlandish comments after perhaps a year of peacefulness. Just an observation. I never note such behaviour when Murray is in fine form or Novak or even Rafa.

That may be true CC - us Murray followers are the most well-behaved breed IMHO
I think my point was more that the forum (from an admin pov) is equally open and welcoming to fans of all players.

Oh of course as it should always be but surely not so welcoming is bolshe posters. I have nothing against Roger and it is great to see him back in form but rather than massage bolshe posters egos I'd sooner see Roger lose because of some people's attitude to curb their outlandish comments. Shame really but that is the way it is.

I do believe that socal has been nurturing a secret dream that one day a commemorative statue of his man Djoko will be sculpted and erected on a huge marble plinth, along with a hand-carved decorative plaque by way of recognition of THAT point, there in perpetuity for future generations to behold and gaze upon in awe & wonder.

The actual wording would be nice & simple, and thoroughly understated and restrained in its own way (rather like some of his family members and biggest followers).

Something along the lines of ......oh, I don't know ...... "Shot of the Century"

I'm more than happy to put in a couple of dollars to kick start the collection........ 

Not sure there's a house rule against being bolshe and/or outlandish

lags72 wrote:I do believe that socal has been nurturing a secret dream that one day a commemorative statue of his man Djoko will be sculpted and erected on a huge marble plinth, along with a hand-carved decorative plaque by way of recognition of THAT point, there in perpetuity for future generations to behold and gaze upon in awe & wonder.

The actual wording would be nice & simple, and thoroughly understated and restrained in its own way (rather like some of his family members and biggest followers).

Something along the lines of ......oh, I don't know ...... "Shot of the Century"

I'm more than happy to put in a couple of dollars to kick start the collection........ 

This is a wonderful idea.

We could have Novak striking The Shot, a plaque on one side as you described and a plaque on the other side, with a Nike swoosh and text below that reads:

"Confidence? Are you kidding me? I mean, please.

Look, some players grow up and play like that. I remember losing junior matches. Just being down 5-2 in the third, and they all just start slapping shots. It all goes in for some reason, because that's the kind of way they grew up playing when they were down.

I never played that way. I believe in hard work's gonna pay off kinda thing, because early on maybe I didn't always work at my hardest. So for me, this is very hard to understand how can you play a shot like that on match point. "

Socal, Slasher and I could meet there every September 10th to reminisce and repair some of the vandalism Jaha has done to the statue.

CC - given that I have (based on your general posting history) come to regard you over time as a perfectly rational & balanced individual, I must say that I am rather surprised - even a little concerned - by these emotional comments of yours in relation to Roger, along with your reference to "bolshe posters egos"

How very odd that you should give such weight to the ramblings and casual waffle written on an internet forum by people you do not actually know that it then affects your own personal perception of a particular athlete and his sporting achievements/progress.

The analogy that sprang to mind was me watching with admiration the silken skills of a certain Lionel Messi; but then - after reading a bit of OTT stuff from anonymous bloggers on a forum -  I conclude that it's best if he doesn't actually score any more goals and that I can (preferably) watch him be a failure rather than a success. Because that way, it might just help curb the "outlandish comments" ........ 

Socal, Slasher and I could meet there every September 10th to reminisce and repair some of the vandalism Jaha has done to the statue.

Thats just preposterous!!

Anyway, has any of you 3 fans met Djoko? Had a little nice chat with him? Had a signed baseball cap from him?

Well I've had all 3, so who's got to him closer, you lot or me?   

Jahu, I'm startled by that revelation!

What did he say in the little chat that made you hate him so much? 

I don't hate him man, I just don't like him beating Fed, Nadal or Murray, but he can beat Berdy anytime he wants

He is easily best relaxed talker of any tennis player I've chatted, on par with Ivanisevic, its was on 2008 Monte Carlo, we talked in Serbian, his english was a little broken

Well it lasted 2 minutes, after the end of his training session, before the SF match with Fed and he signed the cap for my friend.

Then saw Davydenko mid week at a local caffee,  I swear he was drunk at 11am, with 2-3 long legged blonds from Russia

I can tell you in confidence HMM that all was going well until the chat turned to that infamous shot at the USO.

Jahu somewhat dismissively referred to it as the "Slap" - whereupon Novak bristled with resentment, whilst pointing out that it's this sort of calculated, pre-meditated play that has brought him six Slam titles.

Well, I dunno about that, it seemed more like good luck to me said Jahu. And anyway, I much prefer the 'hard work' philosophy, as followed by that Swiss chap you were playing.

Yeah.....but where does that get you ? asked Djoko.

Er .....17 Slams, I believe, came the response from Jahu.

Things suddenly went very quiet ..........