OWGR Week 13

Robo asked me to start this weeks thread:

Preliminary OWGR Rating for Valero is 40, but it is very vulnerable.  If anyone in the top 200 withdraws between now and tee time, it will go down to a 38.  Three top 50 players already have withdrawn (Reed, Moore, and Every) and those WD’s kicked it down from a strong  44 to a weak 44.

The Valero (or is it Vagabound) has not had the same spot on the schedule since 2009-2010 when it was played one week after the Players Championship.  IIRC, It has an agreement with the tour that it will NOT be played on EASTER weekend. Here is a history of the OWGR ratings of the Valero with its spot on the schedule (Location, Location, Location) in the FEDEX ERA.

2013 – 44 (week before Masters)
2012 – 24 (two weeks after Masters)
2011 – 26 (one week after Masters)
2010 – 28 (one week after the Player)
2009 – 26 (one week after the Players)
2008 – 28 (October)
2007 – 24 (October)

Some preliminary projections based a OWGR rating of 38:

Mickelson will pass Jason Day with a win and become #4.
Zach can get as high as #5 with a win (depending on how Mickelson does) and #6 with a solo 2nd.
Kuchar and Spieth can get to #6 with a win.
Furyk and Walker can get to the mid-teens with a win.

Around the World there is the EurAsian Cup in Malaysia which means there is no OWGR event for the European and Asian Tours.  

The OneAsian and Japanese Tours opens their 2014 season with a co-sanctioned event, the Enjoy Jakarta Indonesia PGA Championship

The Web-com tour has their first domestic event of the year, in Lafayette LA.

Two long-time Top 50 residents will be dropping out soon unless they can turn their season around.
Westwood (down to 37th) slipping fast and he's been in the Top 50 for 342 weeks, while Watney (now 42nd)returns to action next week and it's been 262 wks since he was last outside the Top 50.
Amazing that Watney's never made a Ryder Cup Team and, if both carry on at this rate, they'll both be watching Gleneagles on TV.

Westwood and Watney still in the top 50 shows how non-volatile the OWGR is.

Westwood has had only one good finish since Muirfield and Watney has had only two top 10 finishes in the last 14 months.

There are quite a few players right behind Watney. He is already qualified for the US and Open Champ and the top 100 are virtually guaranteed a spot in the PGA. Good thing, because he will be out of the top 60 by the Players if he doesn't have a good result soon.

Westwood has a little bit of buffer (3 tenths) between him and Watney but in reality that is only a couple weeks behind Watney. Can he stay in the top 60 by the end of May to qualify for the US Open? I don't think T20's will keep Westy in the top 60 by the end of May. And lately, T20's has been his best result. T16 in the World Challenge was an 18 player field.

GPB,
1).Sugaring season is delayed due to the almost unprecedented cold. Record cold March in St.J, dating back 125 years, only five Marches colder in BTV.
2).Watney has had injuries (withdrew from a top ten position at Doral?) and took time off for paternity leave. Westwood has no such excuse.

Going by his tweets westwood has become a professional Manchester united hater, which apparently doesn't do your golf game any good.

What is the ETA for 9C to lose #1?

40 points for "Texas" it is.

Woods? Must all depend on The Masters. If he doesn't play, he'll likely be out at least until Quail Hollow at the beginning of May, possibly The Players a week later. He'll be losing points at a rate of knots by then, but can Scott or Stenson or Russell Knox capitalize?

If Woods doesn't play Augusta, he won't play any event until Pinehurst.

Even he plays Augusta, I doubt he plays again until Pinehurst.

He will continue to lose about 0.20 pts per week from attrition for the next couple months.

Assuming he does not play Augusta (or Whiffies) his average should be approx 8.25 at the Players.

I haven't run the numbers myself yet... but I'm hearing Houston will be running in the 58-60 range based on the current field...

I ran the numbers Robo: Looks like a weakish 60. Vulnerable to a WD or two.

An 11th hour Mickelson WD from Houston will definitely knock Houston down to a 58.

Some OWGR implications for Valero:

With a win:

Bowditch could climb from ~340 to about ~130
Loupe could climbs from ~500 to about ~130
Kuchar gets to #6
Perez could get as high as 60th.
Na could get as high as 40th

Only two players can earn a back door invite. to Augusta. Crash the top 50 (and not winning Valero). And both players are in position to do it.

Palmer needs a two way tie for 3rd or better.
Hadley needs a solo 7th or better.

However: If Kevin Na wins, then Hadley needs a 5th place (or better) and Palmer needs a solo third for both of them to crash the top 50.

Nick Watney is the first Top 50 defector from "Houston".

What is the link between Captain Kirk and Major Toms?


Last year, the Masters committee tweaked their qualification criteria.

Prior to 2014, The top 16 players and ties from the previous Masters was invited to the following Masters. ANGC announced that only the top 12 from the 2013 Masters would be invited.

David Toms finished T13 last year (along with DJohnson, Ernie, and Fred)

Mitigating that change was the announcement that all Fall Series events winner would get an invite.

Chris Kirk won the McGladreys Classic and is the only player who won a fall series event that was not qualified from another exemption.

Walker, Simpson, Moore, DJohnson, and English were exempt via another exemption class.

So the link is: What was lost by (Major) TOMS was gained by (Captain) KIRK.

Nice one GPB.
Perhaps optometrist Gil Morgan was known as Doctor Who????? when he embarked on his Pro career?
Sorry about that.

Watney WD knock SHO from a weak 60 to a strong 58.

Briny Baird and Dudley Hart's WDs had no effect on the SoF.

If Mickelson WD's, the rating will go to a 56.

Stenson needs 53 points to overtake Tiger this week.