The Monte Carlo Thread

by HM Murdock Tue 15 Apr 2014, 4:05 pm

First topic message reminder :

Round 2 and no thread yet?

Djokovic has just mauled Montanes 6-1 6-0. Tsonga also through.

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 10:28 am

Henman Bill wrote: as if Federer will get 15 BPs against Djokovic. I would only give him 20-25% chance to beat Djoko.

Would pretty much agree with you on both counts HB, and all logic points that way based on Novak's recent/current form - his early-round performances in defense of his title here at MC have been pretty ruthless. But the enduring attraction of top-level sport depends largely on the uncertainty factor. A new day brings a different challenge and a different match-up.

Back in his 2011 wonder season as cited by HMM above, Novak was of course looking even more invincible than he does right now : red-hot streak, 43 matches unbeaten, with the general consensus that he was all set to add an RG trophy to the seven other titles already won that year (including four successive finals against Rafa)

And then the spell was famously brought to an end by the guy he meets later today.

Specifically on the matter of BP's - "as if Federer will get 15 BP's against Djokovic....." Well .....you would think not. But stranger things have happened and the stats for that RG semi say that Fed actually got 25 BP's against Djoko over the four sets. His conversion rate wasn't a whole lot better than yesterday, but - like yesterday - he converted when it mattered, and it was good enough to get the job done.

We're three years on, and I won't be betting money on anyone other than Djoko to take the MC title (probably in convincing fashion) and continue this latest unbeaten run. But you never know ....... chin

by HM Murdock Sat 19 Apr 2014, 11:07 am

Yes, you'd have to say Novak starts as favourite but there is something in the Federer match up that always gives Novak trouble.

Novak is always vulnerable to a player who can mix things up and employ great variety. Even now, I don't think anyone does that better than Federer.

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 12:59 pm

Stan kicking @ss.

Djoko strapped tight today in practice.

https://twitter.com/adel1609/status/457470557408468992/photo/1

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 1:03 pm

Holy candy, Stan crushing Ferret

4:0

by HM Murdock Sat 19 Apr 2014, 1:05 pm

That strapping Novak has is a bit worrying.

by kingraf Sat 19 Apr 2014, 1:47 pm

I'm putting money on Stan to be the Monte Carlo Master.... or is it the Master of Monte Carlo?

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 2:05 pm

If Daveed squares things here, methinks he wins the match .....

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 2:08 pm

Stan deserves this Masters. Amazing shotmaking, so much power.

3:0 up in TB

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 2:14 pm

Stan takes it. Superb play.

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 2:20 pm

Well done Stan clap

Hopefully that brings an end to his post-AO blues .....

Some interesting thoughts here from Rafa
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/18/us-tennis-men-masters-nadal-idUSBREA3H0H620140418

A customary win at Barcelona (albeit not the strongest of fields) will help put him back on track ahead of RG. But if not .......

by The Special Juan Sat 19 Apr 2014, 2:27 pm

I don't think you can play Nadal's style of tennis for so long (is he now 10 or 11 years on the tour?) without suffering a mental dip at some point in your career. Playing every point with such intensity really has to take it's toll at some point. However, if he's not there or thereabouts at Roland Garros I will eat my bonnet.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:04 pm

Managed to catch almost all of Warwinka-Ferrer. A shame work's too demanding for me to be able to watch anything during the week, so this was the first match I watched. I enjoyed it, some good variety. Watching this and also the Federer-Djokovic match I definately see homognisation of the surfaces at work. Warwinka was serve volleying and even clay points are aggressive. Matches where a high % of the points are high spinny rallies that go for a while seem to me less common than the 90s, although I could be wrong because I have not watched a lot of clay down the years.

But in the 90s players on clay never seemed to go to the net unless maybe they had just done a lob or they were so close to the net that they hardly had any choice. Some clay courters would only run to the net when they were hitting a shot that was likely to be a clean winner, so it was a bit pointless, as if to say "look, I am going to the net, honest!" to which I thought "yeah, only when there's little chance of a hard volley!". But now volleys seem as common on clay as they do on grass or hard almost.

I suppose on clay it's a case of the same surface being attacked with different rackets or playing styles perhaps, whereas on hard and grass I do think the actual surface has changed. But whatever - the end result is homogenization.

Rarely watched it down the years but isn't Monte Carlo supposed to be one of the slowest - slower than Roma and Madrid and similar to Roland Garros (?). Doesn't look that slow the way some players are attacking on it. Even Ferrer going for his forehands to some extent.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:08 pm

Mind you, although the surfaces don't seem as different as they used to be in the styles of play that they generate small differences can still make, I think, quite a big difference in the probability to win, if 2 players are closely matched.

On hard I see it being about Djokovic 55: Federer 45 maybe Djokovic 75: Federer 25 on clay.

That being said, Federer has started well and is matching him, and I think also it doesn't have the feel of Federer being much more aggressive either, the two are both playing a reasonably balanced game.

by HM Murdock Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:27 pm

Novak in a charitable mood today. 40-0 up and then loses 5 points in a row.

A good match until that point. Both have played well with Federer in particular playing some great shots.

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:27 pm

Djoko broken from 40:0. Fed serving for the set 6:5.

Come on boy

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:29 pm

First set with an ace fron Fed.

Djokos alibi for the loss with bandage, is coming true Laugh

by HM Murdock Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:30 pm

First set to Fed.

Novak starting to wheel out his little boy lost routine which I wish he'd cut out.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:34 pm

A good match in terms of solid and consistent play although missing a few stand out points or real excitement although maybe that will come later.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:39 pm

hm rather average from Djokovic (needs to step up somehow) but very solid from Federer there. Don't recall a lot of errors today and a couple of solid winners without needing to be spectacular.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:40 pm

Djokovic 7-1 on Betfair

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:43 pm

What's going on in Djokovic's head I wonder? Is he not that bothered if he loses today? I mean, he won the tournament last year, and he's probably mostly focused on RG so maybe he isn't that bothered about battling his guts out to fight back here? Or maybe he's pretending to be disinterested so he can suddenly catch Roger out in a minute?

by The Special Juan Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:45 pm

Will this be another blank filled in on the Federer CV?

by HM Murdock Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:47 pm

Henman Bill wrote:hm rather average from Djokovic (needs to step up somehow) but very solid from Federer there. Don't recall a lot of errors today and a couple of solid winners without needing to be spectacular.

I thought it was good for the first 8 or 9 games. Federer played excellently to dig himself out of trouble and then the wheels seem to have come off for Novak.

He does genuinely look to be having trouble with his wrist though. Whether it's actually the pain that's stopping him or just frustration at being a bit inhibited, I don't know.

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:47 pm

No one knows his silly games, but if he is hurt he should quit and not do a Nadal AO final which is still costing him.

Well 5:1 now so I guess he can hang around a few more minutes.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:51 pm

If Federer had just taken an MP at Rome against Rafa in 2006 then he would be playing here for the full masters set. If he wins this tournament, he will play again for the full set of 9 at Rome this year.

Djokovic will play for the set of 9 again at Cincinatti this year, where he is a 4-time finalist.

Rafa still missing Miami and Paris.

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:54 pm

Last all Swiss ATP tour final? Anyone?

by Jahu Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:54 pm

Fed takes it.

Swiss final, Stan or Fed, dont mind Smile

by Henman Bill Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:56 pm

Wow great stats from Fed, winners 19 UE 21 very respectable on clay, 3/5 BPs, good service stats, all very solid. More a case of no weak points to his game today rather than hitting Hollywood shots.

by HM Murdock Sat 19 Apr 2014, 3:59 pm

Could be an excellent final. It will be nice to have two SHBHs too.

Del Potro's travails make me worried about any wrist problem but hopefully all Novak needs is a rest and some physio.

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:07 pm

Yep, solid win by Federer.

Yesterday Novak was in perfect shape, reeling off nine of the last ten games, so it's hard to imagine he has suddenly become physically inhibited in just 24 hours. Mind you, he wasn't playing Garcia-Lopez today.

I'm pretty sure Novak will come back strongly as he invariably does, and for now his own words after being taken out by Fed a few weeks back in Dubai probably hold good ....... "No shame in losing to Roger Federer"

My hunch is that Stan will pull through tomorrow, but it will be very tight and could go either way.

by sirfredperry Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:18 pm

Well an all-Swiss final. Following the scores coming thyrough today I ket waiting for, first, Daveed and then Djoko to fight back, but it was not to be. Hope Djoko's not too injured.
Of course, this will be the first time that Stan has gone into a Fed match ahead of Rog in the rankings. I'm with Lags72 on this one. Almost too close to call.
Both players must be firm favourites to make the 02 in London already, which will make Fed's choice of paternity leave a little easier.

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:23 pm

Well, Stan is deservedly Swiss no 1 for now, but am I right in thinking that he must win tomorrow's encounter if he is to stay above Fed in the rankings ....?

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:46 pm

I'm pretty sure everyone's aware of the heavily skewed h2h between these two members of the Swiss DC doubles team.

But I wonder how many knew (I certainly didn't until checking) that Stan's solitary tour win against Federer to date just happened to come at .......er .....Monte Carlo Cool

Written in the stars surely .....?

by Josiah Maiestas Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:47 pm

Goes on a 43 match win streak in 2011 - plays Federer at Roland Garros - SNAPPED!

Looks to win 5th straight Masters title on the bounce - plays Federer at MC - SNAPPED!

Poor Djoker thumbsup

by zaron Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:50 pm

lags72 wrote:Well, Stan is deservedly Swiss no 1 for now, but am I right in thinking that he must win tomorrow's encounter if he is to stay above Fed in the rankings ....?

Correct.

Wawrinka is currently 375 points ahead of Federer. With 400 points to the winner, they will be Swiss #1 and world #3.

by Josiah Maiestas Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:51 pm

As good as it'd be for Rog to win the masters, I'd be very happy to see Stan finally get his first masters. He made a lot of errors today though!

Novak just can't get level to Fed in the H2h can he? zen

by zaron Sat 19 Apr 2014, 4:52 pm

zaron wrote:
lags72 wrote:Well, Stan is deservedly Swiss no 1 for now, but am I right in thinking that he must win tomorrow's encounter if he is to stay above Fed in the rankings ....?

Correct.

Wawrinka is currently 375 points ahead of Federer. With 400 points to the winner, they will be Swiss #1 and world #3.

Oh yeah, and the winner of the match will also lead the YTD standings.

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 5:12 pm

The tourney director can at least feel vindicated at his decision to award a WC to this unheralded R.Federer chap.

The little-known journeyman has now stunned the tennis world by making the Final ....... Shocked

by TRuffin Sat 19 Apr 2014, 5:14 pm

lags72 wrote:I'm pretty sure everyone's aware of the heavily skewed h2h between these two members of the Swiss DC doubles team.

But I wonder how many knew (I certainly didn't until checking) that Stan's solitary tour win against Federer to date just happened to come at .......er .....Monte Carlo

Written in the stars surely .....?

The caveat to that win though is that Federer played MC a few days after being married an while they were basically on their honeymoon.. He took a WC in an hadn't trained, and understandably his mind might have been elsewhere. A wins a win, but I think Federer can safely put that loss at MC away in his mind as fluke. This isn't that Stan though- so certainly he has a shot though..

How about that Fed though? Written off once again- and now is arguably 1B to Djokovics 1A as currently playing best in the world...

by lags72 Sat 19 Apr 2014, 5:35 pm

Wasn't aware of those specific circumstances TRuffin.

But as you say, this is a totally different Stan, with all the added confidence that a Slam title brings (notwithstanding those blips in the immediate aftermath of his AO triumph, hopefully now a thing of the past)

As for Federer .... I believe his match W/L ratio for the season to date is currently the best of the whole Tour - even though I doubt he can maintain that level throughout the year (?). On the one hand it says a lot about the longevity & continued motivation of a player in his 33rd year ; but it's also yet another reminder of the notable lack of young talent breaking through at the very highest level. I live in hope, but am beginning to think more & more that it will be a case of the old guard eventually 'dying off' before any fresh names can battle their way into the top five ......

by sirfredperry Sat 19 Apr 2014, 6:27 pm

Well I saw somewhere that Fed, now 28-4 for the season, only reached 27 wins with his first, and only, win at Wimbledon last year, which shows how far ahead he is this year.
Thought he would do better in '14 than '13 but didn't, along with most others, reckon he'd do as well as this. All these points take him well into 2015 with a good ranking and already it's beginning to look as if his, at the time somewhat crazy, plan to play the 2016 Olympics isn't so weird after all.
At the very least, Fed fans might get another full year out of him in 2015, although if he's doing as well as this he's probably not planning anything just yet.

by antonico Sat 19 Apr 2014, 9:35 pm

Apparently all is far from well for Djokovic...

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/04/djokovic-take-break-treat-wrist-injury/51220/#.U1Ld3ZXn_IV

by invisiblecoolers Sat 19 Apr 2014, 11:23 pm

antonico wrote:Apparently all is far from well for Djokovic...

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2014/04/djokovic-take-break-treat-wrist-injury/51220/#.U1Ld3ZXn_IV

Actually Djoko had an awkard fall when serving at 5-5 in the 1st set and he was not the same after that, I thought the fall compounded for his loss but seems like he had other issues as well.

If he had wrist injury on, it was really dumb from his team to make him play Monte Carlo, something they have to come up with explanation.

by Henman Bill Sun 20 Apr 2014, 12:47 am

lags72 wrote:The tourney director can at least feel vindicated at his decision to award a WC to this unheralded R.Federer chap.

The little-known journeyman has now stunned the tennis world by making the Final .......

Yeah, when was his last final, 2008? He hasn't bothered to turn up the last couple of years. They give out wild cards to anyone these days!

by Henman Bill Sun 20 Apr 2014, 1:02 am

Hm, yeah, that Djokovic news makes sense. He didn't fight much after going a set and a break down, obviously at that stage more concerned about physical conditioning. I noticed something was up although initially I wondered if it was more mental than physical.

Surely what matters to Djokovic is winning RG. I wonder if there is an argument now to not bother playing the other clay tournaments. You get plenty of match practice in the slam itself during the early rounds. If not skip all of them at least skip Madrid and Rome, with the inevitable gruelling matches against top players, and play one of the 250s plus a clay exhibition or twoplus obviously behind the scenes practice and training to keep in shape without over-exerting himself.

Just trust himself to bring it against Rafa and other top players when he needs to.

Of course this is assuming it's a slight, niggling injury, rather than one that will flat out rule him out for certain tournaments.

I don't think we should take credit away from Federer though. He played really well and might have won anyway. One of the great things in his favour in his whole career has been his fitness, and that is arguably due to playing style and management of schedule as much as luck, so perhaps even a just rewards, or maybe that's biased of me actually.

by **laverfan** Sun 20 Apr 2014, 3:03 am

Henman Bill wrote:Last all Swiss ATP tour final? Anyone?

Is it Marseille 2000 - Federer v Rosset?

by **laverfan** Sun 20 Apr 2014, 6:00 am

If Federer wins tomorrow, he becomes the second oldest (after Agassi - Cincinnati 2004 @ 34yo) to win a Masters, I think.

by sirfredperry Sun 20 Apr 2014, 8:23 am

It's been pointed out that whoever wins today's final goes to number three in the rankings. With Djoko out for a while this effectively becomes number two, with the added advantage of avoiding Rafa's half in future clay court tourneys.
Of course, Fed, being aware of this, probably slipped something in to Stan's food while they ate out together last night.

by Jahu Sun 20 Apr 2014, 9:06 am

For Fed i think no: 4 is better, he avoids Rafas half, since mostly its 1:3, 2:4 seedings.

by DJB14 Sun 20 Apr 2014, 9:56 am

I think this will be a big match for Wawrinka today. Either he will kick on from his slam win and give Federer a real fight, at least, or he bends over again and Federer comfortably beats him.

It will certainly be better for tennis, and the clay court season in general, if Wawrinka wins today, it would make things much more interesting. Although no one could argue that Federer doesn't deserve a MC crown given the number of finals he's made.

by Sponsored content