Who will win the 2014 French at RG?

Forecasts and thoughts on the French are already beginning on the Rome 2014 topic so thought it would be OK to get the ball rolling on predictions for RG on this new topic.
  Consensus so far seems to be that yes, Rafa is still probably favourite, and yes, a title match between the top two is likely. BUT, it's probably more open than for some years and some of the young guns can smell blood in the water. Murray gave Rafa a terrific match in Rome and Fed, IMHO, is well capable of another semi final appearance.
  Please keep your thoughts coming, especially as to how the next few weeks could see a change - and perhaps another quick change after that - at the very top of the rankings..

I agree that until Rafa is finally dethroned, he has to be viewed as the favourite.

A comment he made last week intrigued me though. When told by a reporter that they weren't used to seeing him struggle, he replied:

"Get used to it. With the years that's the normal thing. Everybody suffers. That's part of the sport. At this age, Borg was doing other things. It's not possible to win for 10 years with easy scores and easy matches."

This makes me wonder if he is starting to feel the miles in his legs a bit now. To my eye, he does seem a touch slower than recent years. Still an incredible competitor but just a little down from his prodigious former level.

The Nadal-Djokovic rivalry is in an interesting place right now. Djokovic appears to have the momentum and Rafa appears to have lost everything - the court position, the early hitting, the FHDTL - that enabled him to grab the ascendancy last year. The thought occurs that he might benefit from another presence, another pair of eyes on his coaching team.

As for Novak, I said at the start of the year that I think his slam winning days are probably over. As much as I've been impressed with some of his clutch play in recent weeks, I'm not inclined to change my opinion yet. There have been too many failures to serve out sets and too many breaks given straight back for my fears of him doing something stupid to be allayed.

Dark horses - does Stan count as a dark horse anymore? I also have a hunch that, depending on the draw, Andy may surprise a few people this year. Federer remains in the mix but I think he, rightly, has a lot of his mind on his children at the moment.

It s Rafas fortress, and hes my second fav tennis player but... I think its time
Last year he and Novak were much closer and he just sneaked the win, this time I think Novaks proper ready. For Rafa there is good news, hes been getting steadily better as the the clay court season has gone on, and I know he will defend hs throne to the bitter end, he no longer looks like being upset by any dirt rat worth his salt, he looks far more set for the final than before. Novaks maybe more likely to go out before the final, especially if that old bloke fomr Switzerland meets him, but he just looks too match tough for an out of sorts top 8. I expect a 1-2 final with some caveats, and for Novak to take it in 4.

Stans got a real chance now though, it would b disrespectful not to talk about him now hes won a slam, Muzz still isnt quite there, a quarterfinal would be a good result points wise, Ferrers problem is everyone ranked above him, an the others might do damage but they dont look ready yet to win the thing

I think Novak favourite this year, not by much.

If I have to pick a third favourite or dark horse I would have to pick Murray. Admittedly he's miles behind the top 2 favourites, and only just ahead of the 10th favourite, but I think he can improve on clay, it's never too late, Tim Henman did nothing on clay for his whole career, and then suddenly nearly won the FO, and Murray has a much better game for clay. He just needs one of the big 2 to suffer a shock defeat or injury and then just to play a freakish blinder one day, I think that's all the rest of the field can all really hope for. Probably QF or R4 for Murray but you never know.

Warwinka and Federer likely can't beat a fit Nadal here, and others don't seem capable of a slam until they prove otherwise. Would be nice to see one of the youngsters get through to maybe a semi and give a good account.

HB - Tim Henman was a set up in his RG semi with Coria who then famously lost in the final having had championship points, so anything's possible for Murray, as you say.
Raonic, Dimitrov and Nishikori have all done well this year but semis at RG are probably beyond them.

A 5 set match on clay, gives Rafa time to wear you down, however well you think you're playing.

much truth Eric, the 5 set format is his biggest weapon this week, itl be the big thing that saves him, if it does

But does that apply against Djokovic. Let's dig in a little deeper here.

Clay H2H: Nadal 13 Djokovic 4
3-set Clay H2H: Nadal 7 Djokovic 4
5-set Clay H2H: Nadal 6 Djokovic 0

Clay H2H From (Jan) 2011: Nadal 4 Djokovic 4
3-set Clay H2H From 2011: Nadal 2 Djokovic 4
5-set Clay H2H From 2011: Nadal 2 Djokovic 0

Looks pretty compelling at first glance, then again, another reading of that is that Madrid and Rome (3 of Djoko's 4 wins) are faster than Paris.

Also, in Nadal's BO5 wins, Djokovic did not have a 2-0 or 2-1 lead in any of them, so you can argue Nadal would have won them all if they had been BO3.

The one clay match that actually went the distance Rafa won, and that match arguably decided by the net touch - perhaps more of a mental mistake - then again - physical tiredness could cause it. Then again, their Australian Open match, their only other match that went the distance in BO5 - was famously brutal, more so than any of their clay matches, and Djoko prevailed then. He also looked physically strong in their US Open final of 2011 in another gruelling match.

I would also add that in my view that chance of the two of them both reaching the final is only about 50/50 or just over in my view. Anything can happen.

I see this as the field's best chance to be honest. Djokovic I think will beat Nadal if they meet in the final at RG. However I can see Novak going out to Fed, Murray, Stan, or one of the other big guns on their day more likely than I see Nadal losing. That is the kicker, I think Novak is still struggling a bit with his focus. I hope Stan is in the other half because I could see Stan beating him in a Semi. That being said if I had to pick a favorite I would pick Novak. I think he is a player that has big ups and downs, but he continually makes adjustments and improvements in his game. He looks to have learned well from his tough season he had last year. Yes he has thrown some big slam matches away in the last 18 months but I think it has been more an issue of confidence and focus. This 4 match win streak against Nadal I think gives at least a litte bit of that belief that he had in 2011 and early in 2012.

Djokovic, IMO, is champion in all but name.

Nadal's level of yesteryear is gone. And Djokovic matches up well against Nadal.

Coupled with Nadal seemingly gun shy on clay this season.

Djokovic(irresistible force) vs Nadal(the creaking unmovable object)

I think if they meet in the final, Djokovic would win in straight sets.

But I don't think Nadal will reach the final.

I thought Nadal looked in fairly good shape in the last couple of matches in Rome. The level Djokovic was playing in the final was unreal. Its hard to even comprehend how someone can time the type of spitting topspin Nadal generates whilst taking the ball so early.

I think Novak is a huge favourite but he has found a variety of ways not to win slams in the last 18 months. I can't see him messing up agaiyn though.

Last year, Nadal was outplayed by Brands and Klizan, but they could not sustain it. Nishikori was in the same boat in Madrid. Isner has caused him problems too.

RG 2014 is Nadal's to lose, IMVHO, and Djokovic's to win. Hopefully Nadal has no lingering fitness issues.

A new member in the Nadal coaching team will cause problems for Nadal. Roig and others provide fair input.

Ferrer has a better attitude than Berdych.

Murray showed what he can do against Nadal, breadstick first set and all that at Rome. A Bo5 against Murray is also a challenge for anyone.

Nadal obviously starts as favourite. But I agree with HM, socal et all; the tournament is very open compared to previous years. The draw will be a big factor, especially for Novak. Stan could turf him out before the final, and Federer's record at RG is excellent - and he'll have to play one of the two Swiss if all goes according to seeding.

Could Raonic follow in Isner's footsteps and cause Nadal issues? Murray could also test him.

An intriguing draw would be Nadal - Raonic, Stan - Murray | Federer - Berdych, Novak - Ferrer.

I'll say Djokovic. Didn't seem to show any sign of his wrist injury in Rome. Nadal just doesn't seem quite right at present. Although over 5 sets he will be hard to beat. Wawrinka is the wild card for me. If he turns up in his AO and Monte Carlo form he will definitely be a handful for whichever of Djokovic or Nadal are scheduled to meet him in the SF (assuming they get there). Even if they were to beat him it could take a lot out of them. Don't see anyone outside of these three winning.

Funny how everybody considers Wawrinka the main threat to novak reaching the final. The head to head is 15-3 in Novak's favour !! I understand that Wawrinka has had some epic battles with novak in slams recently but wawrinka absolutely played out of his skin in those matches.

I would consider Federer a bigger threat even though novak beat him in straight sets at the French open last time around. However If Novak can make the final this year, i think he might just do it!!

So much pressure on him to deliver though with it being the final step to the career slam. Federer needed Nadal to be knocked out just to win his, Novak might just need to beat Federer!

I concur with a lot of the thoughts here that it really has just come to the point that Nadal is due a loss at RG similar to Monte Carlo last year where the run just had to come to an end. At RG he has won 8 out of 9 times and all 6 of his matches against Djokovic so I don't think that a loss to Djokovic would be that devastating.

It would have been different if he had beaten back in 2011 or 2012 and had kept Nadal at bay since but now if Nadal loses to Djokovic the only worrying thing would be 5 losses in a row, although 3 of these were on hard court. If it does happen I wouldn't buy into the fact that a loss to Djokovic would signal any type of overall dominance over Nadal considering he has a far superior slam h2h and has beaten Djokovic on every slam surface and he'll be 28 come the RG final.

I think the fact that a RG win would complete a career grand slam is far more important than a win over Nadal. The draw could be very influential, it will be interesting to see where Wawrinka, Nichsikori, Murray, Dimitrov all end up.

Born Slippy wrote:I thought Nadal looked in fairly good shape in the last couple of matches in Rome. The level Djokovic was playing in the final was unreal. Its hard to even comprehend how someone can time the type of spitting topspin Nadal generates whilst taking the ball so early.

I think Novak is a huge favourite but he has found a variety of ways not to win slams in the last 18 months. I can't see him messing up agaiyn though.

That is really what throws Nadal for a loop that all the bite and spin he puts on the ball that cause errors for other players seems to be exactly the type of ball Djokovic likes to hit. The compactness and stability of his two hander go a long way to explaining the reason for his comfort in playing Nadal and his western forehand as well holds up much better to that big bouncer from Nadal. Nadal also is not a particularly deep ball striker the spin causing his balls to drop short and Djokovic with the early court positioning is in perfect position to take command. To me Novak has lost a lot of matches due to lack of focus and belief as he is much streakier than most other great players mentally. And Nadal's ability to get to every ball and fight for every point has a way of finally pushing someone over the edge mentally.

slashermcguirk wrote:Funny how everybody considers Wawrinka the main threat to novak reaching the final. The head to head is 15-3 in Novak's favour !! I understand that Wawrinka has had some epic battles with novak in slams recently but wawrinka absolutely played out of his skin in those matches.

I would consider Federer a bigger threat even though novak beat him in straight sets at the French open last time around. However If Novak can make the final this year, i think he might just do it!!

So much pressure on him to deliver though with it being the final step to the career slam. Federer needed Nadal to be knocked out just to win his, Novak might just need to beat Federer!

Yes Slasher, I agree to an extent but like how we give credit to Djokovic for being a different player post 2011 we also give Stan credit for making a marked improvement in the last couple of seasons. The thing that he has improved beyond confidence wise for me is his return of serve. Stan was always one of the weaker returners in the game in years gone by. While he is not all of sudden a great returner or even a very good one he has become much more aggressive and less predictable on the return. In matches he struggles in he typically goes back to old Wawrinka who would chip every single ball back on both sides. Against a player like Novak that is a recipe for disaster. Now he is more likely to uncork on the return and keep his opponent guessing.

Gerry SA - Can't really see Rafa not making the final despite his, for him, patchy clay-court season. Can't really see Djoko beating him in straight sets, either, although a 3-0 is more probable this year than ever before.
Rafa always seems so supreme at the French. It's afterwards he suffers, with his late-season form always fairly poor.
Tsonga did well last year, beating Rog in the quarters. He has not had much of a season so far, but could do well here.

dont know who will win, but for the first time I feel nadal could not win

after he won in 2005 I always saw him as strong favourite in the following years...of course even in 2009 when soderling surprised us all, that means for 8 years I felt nobody could beat him... even in 2011 I was confident about his win prior to the start...

but now, I have the feeling nole will get it, actually I would bet for him. hope I am wrong though

naxroy - your feelings pretty much sum up those of most people towards Rafa at the moment. Next bit of interest will be the draw (tomorrow, presumably). I wonder, if, for once at the French, that players might not mind being in Rafa's section rather than Djoko's. (still think Rafa will win, though)

one thing we sahllnot forget is they would only meet in the final... this means with both contenders full of confidence

rafa lost with a great nole, but he has improved his clay game with every tournament, if he gets to the final he will again be a huge mountain to climb for nole

only one person ever beat rafa in best of 5 on clay

Well with that draw, Andy won't and I'd wager he'll be back on the grass this time next week

Ive only seen a summary but it looks like as easy a draw for Andy as could be expected? Who's the big danger?

Well here's one reason

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/8614118.stm     


And he tends to struggle most against single backhand players, particularly on the dirt - so that makes the Gasquet match (assuming he gets that far) a walk in the park as well   

Mind you Richard might do his usual, look like a 2005 version of Fed for the first 90 minutes and a 1996 one for the rest of the match  

Not that it matters too much, but Federer will be happy with the draw. Getting back into the top 4 really helps so he'll be keen to get to the quarter at least to stay there for Wimbledon.

And he can dream of Djokovic & Nadal getting tripped up.......

There may have been all sorts of oddities and surprises in the season to date but once it comes to RG time, Rafa for me remains clear favourite, followed closely by Djokovic. I see all others as no more than outsiders, with Murray and Wawrinka the only serious prospects within that long list. Those four are the only names I would bother putting any money on for the title itself.

Federer is still good enough (on his day) to end the hopes/dreams of sundry early round contenders, but with the passing years and family priorities, QF's are realistically about the best we can expect from him in Slams from now on ; although he could perhaps make the semis at Wimbledon given a decent draw and a following wind......

That's actually a relatively balanced draw.

Nadal v Almagro and Ferrer would normally be considered walkovers but recent history suggests that may not be the case this year.

For Novak, Federer is always a problem but if ever there is a good time to face him, Bo5 on clay a couple of weeks after baby twins arriving is it! Raonic in the QF could be a bit of a lottery though.

Fairly tough for Andy but those are the consequences of a lower ranking.

as far as the draw goes I agree with HM that it's really pretty even. I'm not too worried by Murray's draw. Being outside the top 4 will mean you face one in the QFs, while they're huge question marks over Gasquet's fitness in any case, so I don't think he'll make it to R4.

On a side-note, James Ward made it through to the main draw today after an epic battle with Blasz Rola, who's in the world top 100, winning 12-10 in the third. An excellent achievement for him .

He could be joined in the women's draw by Heather Watson, who fought back from a set down to win her second qualifying round today, and by Johanna Konta, who's a set up in her second quali round.

Unfortunately, Evans went down badly in the first round of quali, while Cox fought through to the second round, but couldn't get past Lorenzi (no shame in that, Lorenzi is the n°1 seed in qualifying).

TBH Ferrer and Almagro might be seen as Banaba skins for Nadal

But can either keep up their intensity for 4/5hrs to beat Nadal Bo5 sets?

I doubt it.

Just read somewhere Nadal's 81-1 on Bo5 sets on clay. Kinda shows he's pretty damn difficult to beat over the longer duration!

Throw in he's only been taken to 5 sets twice at Paris, Isner and Djokovic.

Still have Djokovic as my clear favourite though.

ok, djokovic could be favourite, because last 4 meetings he won, but...

who is N°1 in the rankings? rafa
who is N°1 in the race to london? rafa
who won here in the last 4 seasons? rafa
who has made more points on clay this season? rafa

On mfc's post : yes, well done James Ward.

With so much focus on the big boys and their respective prospects ahead of every Slam, it's all too easy to forget the sheer intensity of competition faced by the lesser lights just to make the main draw.

Smart money says it's Djokovic's year. A fair number of the ESPN Commentator group gave the nod to Djokovic last year too, with more than half of them convinced after routing Nadal in straight sets in Monte Carlo he finally would get his French Open. I suspect even more of that ESPN crew will give the nod to Djokovic after Rome. I might be the only one who thinks Djokovic was actually helped by drawing Federer as a potential SF foe instead of Wawrinka. At 32, Federer has no intention of knocking himself out physically, and he knows now at his age there is no way he can go through both Djokovic and Nadal on clay and win The French. Federer will much more like his chances to take on any of these - including Nadal - on Wimbledon's grass. Given that he's playing well again, you can just see his vicious Slice staying so low as to muck up all the double handed backhanders into fits. Had Djokovic drawn Wawrinka, that could have been a much tougher gig for Djokovic to get through - since Stan also has a clay Masters 1000 to his name this year and their last two encounters in Majors went 5 sets. Djokovic got the better end of the SF draw getting Federer, who might not even make it that far. But in his RG history Djokovic has shown flashes of living (and dying) dangerously. In 2010 he was up 2 Sets to Love against Melzer, and lost in 5. In 2012 he had to save Match Points in a 5 Setter against Tsonga. In fact, more interesting than meeting Federer is a possible Round 2 of Djokovic - Raonic, the seeded QF match. Raonic took a set from Djokovic in Rome, and played bravely. The first two sets were tiebreaks, so Djokovic was having his issues getting a handle on the Raonic Serve, even with a Return as good as his. If they meet, a good serving day from Milos can give Djokovic more than a few headaches.

antonico wrote:Smart money says it's Djokovic's year. A fair number of the ESPN Commentator group gave the nod to Djokovic last year too, with more than half of them convinced after routing Nadal in straight sets in Monte Carlo he finally would get his French Open. I suspect even more of that ESPN crew will give the nod to Djokovic after Rome. I might be the only one who thinks Djokovic was actually helped by drawing Federer as a potential SF foe instead of Wawrinka. At 32, Federer has no intention of knocking himself out physically, and he knows now at his age there is no way he can go through both Djokovic and Nadal on clay and win The French. Federer will much more like his chances to take on any of these - including Nadal - on Wimbledon's grass. Given that he's playing well again, you can just see his vicious Slice staying so low as to muck up all the double handed backhanders into fits. Had Djokovic drawn Wawrinka, that could have been a much tougher gig for Djokovic to get through - since Stan also has a clay Masters 1000 to his name this year and their last two encounters in Majors went 5 sets. Djokovic got the better end of the SF draw getting Federer, who might not even make it that far. But in his RG history Djokovic has shown flashes of living (and dying) dangerously. In 2010 he was up 2 Sets to Love against Melzer, and lost in 5. In 2012 he had to save Match Points in a 5 Setter against Tsonga. In fact, more interesting than meeting Federer is a possible Round 2 of Djokovic - Raonic, the seeded QF match. Raonic took a set from Djokovic in Rome, and played bravely. The first two sets were tiebreaks, so Djokovic was having his issues getting a handle on the Raonic Serve, even with a Return as good as his. If they meet, a good serving day from Milos can give Djokovic more than a few headaches.

Very good post and a fair assessment. Djokovic to me is more susceptible to the rest of the field at RG than Nadal is and Nadal I just don't see going out to anyone other than Djokovic. This is a big advantage for Nadal. And even in a five set final we know playing Nadal on clay and over 5 sets with his ability to keeping coming at you can unnerve any player.

Nadals best hope is that someone else takes Djokovic out, because I doubt he can at this stage of his career. The match up is just too good for Djokovic and Nadal is past his best. He was flattered in Rome by the game score, the points tally showed it was a one-sided affair, and he was made to look very ordinary by Murray for a large part of their match.

banbrotam wrote:Well here's one reason

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/8614118.stm     


And he tends to struggle most against single backhand players, particularly on the dirt - so that makes the Gasquet match (assuming he gets that far) a walk in the park as well   

Mind you Richard might do his usual, look like a 2005 version of Fed for the first 90 minutes and a 1996 one for the rest of the match  

I've had a full look at it now. Really couldn't be any better for Murray. Two easy build up matches. Sure he's lost to Kohli before but he's been relatively out of sorts and I'd generally give Murray the edge over 5 sets. Gasquet is one of the few top players Murray has actually beaten on clay and Wawrinka has to be the preferred top 4 draw, even with this year's improvements. Best chance Murray could have of somehow making the SF.

Nadal has been slumping this season BB that is for sure, could it be that the back and knees have caught up to him because I think last year he was playing at a very high level. This year he seems to be suffering a slump of sorts. It remains to be seen if he is past his best as you claim, I think it is too soon to tell. It could be the start of Nadal of hitting the physical wall or it could be a loss of form similar to what Djokovic experienced at times over the last couple of years. I for one am not yet comfortable writing him off or concluding that he is past his best tennis. But it is true that this is the worst he has looked in any clay court season since he was 17.

Nadal will be back. He has always been a bit in and out over the course of a year. He won RG last year despite looking terrible in the early rounds and I thought he started to look like he was playing decent stuff at the end of Rome. He's only second favourite for me as Djokovic looked simply supreme in the Rome final.

There always seems to be talk with Nadal that is more in hope than expectation. Since 2009 all we have heard is he's done, finished, not the same, he won't be able to win outside of clay etc. A lot of people say this because they hope this is the case, they hope this is the start of the downfall as opposed to this is what they think will happen.

I've always been at the position of lets talk when RG has finished and we'll go from there. I would still think that to a point, however, I do think as per my previous post that Nadal is due a loss at RG or just one to Djokovic on bo5 on clay. Also even though this has been bandied about in recent years I do think that 2011 and this year are the most vulnerable he has looked going in. On almost all other years he has won 2 clay masters and never goes in with as many as 3 losses on clay. Djokovic finished the clay season with a win for the first time since 2011 as opposed to starting well and underperforming in the latter warm up tournaments.

However, this is the beauty of sport you just never know, Nadal may surge just at the right time, this could be Djokovic's version of Wimbledon 2008 for Nadal where he just got closer and closer to getting that win and everyone thought his time would come and it did. At the end of the day 2 weeks is a long time and players such as Wawrinka, Federer, Murray, Tsonga and the like still have a say in RG before we get to a Nadal-Djokovic final.

Speaking purely from a Murray supporter point of view I'd be happyish with a Quarter-Final spot and anything else would be a bonus.

socal1976 wrote:
Very good post and a fair assessment. Djokovic to me is more susceptible to the rest of the field at RG than Nadal is and Nadal I just don't see going out to anyone other than Djokovic. This is a big advantage for Nadal. And even in a five set final we know playing Nadal on clay and over 5 sets with his ability to keeping coming at you can unnerve any player.

They both have a lot of tennis to play before there is any talk of a Final between them. Patrick McEnroe gave an interview to ESPN and said basically Nadal's 2013 was draining for him physically and mentally (emphasizing the latter), given what he accomplished after 8 months away from the game. McEnroe also said Nadal is the kind of player who needs a lot of match play to hone his game; unlike Federer who can play a match or two and be up to speed. The back injury in Australia also probably has a role in this. Nadal had to, at some point, put the back to the test physically, to see if it would hold up. And probably decided the clay season was the place to do it, since it's softer on your body anyway. There's another point to Nadal on clay at age 28 (in two weeks) vs. Nadal on clay at age 23 or 24. Back then, the bulk of his ranking points to stay at #2 or #1 rested almost solely on his dominance of the clay season. That's not the case anymore. Since then he's gotten much better on faster courts: 3 titles in Indian Wells, 3 in Canada, 2 US Opens, Cincinnati, Australian Open, plus 4 Miami Finals, 2 AO Finals, etc.  It seems fair to say that Nadal's continued blazing through clay in 2012 and 2013 hurt him at Wimbledon, where he's crashed out early the last two years. He'd made the Final there the last 5 times he's played Wimbledon prior to his 2012 crash out. Clay takes more out of you both physically and mentally (especially the latter) because of the length of the matches. It's harder to keep that up as you get older, so that probably is what hurt him at Wimbledon the last two years. After Rio this year, Nadal played only 6 matches heading to the clay season. The MC loss to Ferrer was due much less to Ferrer than Nadal: the 44 Unforced from Nadal was a donation of 11 games in errors. I bet we can find Nadal playing whole clay tournaments in his career and not having made 44 errors in the whole event. Unlike the others at the top - Djokovic, Federer, Wawrinka and Murray - Nadal actually played all the clay events he normally did (so his back was holding up well). He just didn't win them like he always had. He did get better each match, and his early matches in Rome were the kinds of tests physically and mentally he wasn't getting past in MC and Barcelona. Nadal's dissection of Dimitrov in Rome was about as good a match he's played since the AO Semi Final. But Nadal at 28 looks to me to be more about managing himself more efficiently than Nadal at 23 or 24. Unlike Djokovic (who can be counted on to come out ready and firing from the first ball in Match #1), Nadal's first week at RG will tell us a lot about where his game is. Best of Five works better for him because he's capable of a consistency over the longer timeframe than most of his opponents. If we start seeing that come back in the first week, he should be OK. But mentally, he still has to get past that Djokovic mountain  of 4 straight losses should he face it.

Agree with you also that Djokovic will face a few more threats on clay in Best of Five than Nadal will. And it's a technical thing. Djokovic's career is built on robbing his opponents of time by taking the ball extremely early and shooting it past them. On clay that's just harder to do when you have to keep winning that 3rd Set again and again. The bounce isn't as true as it is on a hard court, so it's easier to mishit those shots when you try to take them as early as he wants to. Hard courts at least give you the truer bounce to optimize that strategy, which explains why Djokovic has been to 8 Finals combined at the Australian and US Opens, and only once to the final at Roland Garros. Looking at the Djokovic draw, he does have some landmines to walk past. In 2012, Djokovic had to save match points and go 5 sets against Tsonga in the 4th Round. Well, guess who Djokovic's 4th Round opponent is seeded be in 2014? And Tsonga, lest we forget, was a semi-finalist here last year, losing to Ferrer. Past that, Djokovic has Raonic, who pushed him hard and far in Rome in the Quarters. Or even Nishikori (having had an excellent clay season), who seems to be reaching new heights under Chang's coaching. His Semis could be Federer (which is best case for Djokovic) or Berdych - who has beaten him on clay and has been a semi-finalist here before. If he gets through all of this, he will arrive at this Final with his best chance to win this in his career.

By the way, the ESPN group gave their French Open predictions, just to add to the mix:

http://espn.go.com/sports/tennis/picks/_/tournament/17

Good post anotonico, can't disagree with much there. I think it is interesting that Nadal always seems to decimate the tour one year and then have a retrenchment in the following season or an injury issue. He is a fighter and fights for every single point in every match and the mental and physical wear this puts on him seems to keep him from putting together a lengthy run of dominance like Federer where he can maintain that excellence year in and year out. I can't see Raonic knocking out Djoko or Tsonga for that matter. Novak will have to lower his level and see those two play blinders. It is possible the margins are thin at the top. But Novak over 5 sets eventually will find ways to get at those guys serves and he dominates both those guys in neutral points. Nishikori I think will be a very tough challenge as I think he has figured out the surface and improved greatly the last couple of seasons and has the ability to get a large number of breaks himself on the Djokovic serve and fight him on equal footing in the neutral points. His big issue will be serving well enough on first serve and at a high enough percentage to keep Djokovic off his own second serve.

Someone stick up a RG Day 1 thread please so I can eulogise about how great Marion Bartoli is.

The Special Juan wrote:Someone stick up a RG Day 1 thread please so I can eulogise about how great Marion Bartoli is.

I would but I would be too tempted to put a banning order on any posts eulogising Marion Bartolli.    

You're a poor sport!!

antonico - your detailed post (yesterday 17.36) is an outstanding read, and IMO more insightful than much of what I see written by pundits in mainstream media.

I agree that Nadal produced some excellent tennis in Rome - most notably v Dimitrov. It's undoubtedly the case that he lacked answers when confronted with a top notch, calmly-confident Djokovic in the Final ; but nor do I believe that he is wrestling with all manner of gremlins in the way that many others seem to suggest. His overall game looks to me to be in good shape just in time for RG, and I would be very surprised if he doesn't progress to the business end in the customary manner - ie, sweeping aside many lesser lights without difficulty, whilst also finding enough to slug it out should he be caught cold and unexpectedly pushed to five sets in an early round (eg Isner 2011).

There will inevitably come a time when Rafa's RG domination comes to an end, but I'm not convinced that day is here just yet ......

I think Novak (and Serena) just edges it, but I will never ever write off Rafa until he finally loses, the fact that he knows only one freakishly awesome display of perfect hitting has ever seen him lose here is a big thing. He's lost 4 in a row to Djoko before and still come back and won RG, and mental strength is still a huge asset in his repertoire which will help overcome a rocky (but frankly still better than everyone else but Djokovic) clay season. And Djokovic still knows that despite his game matching up exceptionally vs Rafa's, and the fact he was on top of Rafa in several RGs of the past and is playing well, he has still not won a major in over a year, he has lost to Rafa in their last 2 Major matchups and has been in a position where he should have won RG at least 2 times now and he can't manage it. That is just as big a set of baggage as anything Nadal has

excuse me, when has nole been better than rafa in a match at roland garros?

last years semifinal had been for rafa all the match, just with that early break in the 5th it looked like nole was in charge, but during the rest of the match rafa had looked better

in 2012´s final,the same, rafa looked better for most of the match, just during a set and possibly due to heavy ball cos of the rain (same rain that gave him a needed break) did nole look on top

naxroy wrote:excuse me, when has nole been better than rafa in a match at roland garros?

last years semifinal had been for rafa all the match, just with that early break in the 5th it looked like nole was in charge, but during the rest of the match rafa had looked better

in 2012´s final,the same, rafa looked better for most of the match, just during a set and possibly due to heavy ball cos of the rain (same rain that gave him a needed break) did nole look on top

Maybe, but you can't get to a 5th set unless you've been on top for stretches of the match. Anyway, the point stands about beating Rafa at RG- it should have been easy for Djokovic in the past, but we've seen it's never easy