Has Nadal vs Djokovic become like Federer vs Murray?

I'm well aware this could all change with two slams left to go this year but something did strike me before the final today if Nadal won it.

Federer vs Murray h2h is 11-10 in favour of Murray. Yet as many have pointed out, including Federer, when it come to the big matches Federer is way ahead, their slam h2h is 4-1 to Federer. Murray would beat Federer at masters series, WTFs etc but for so long when push came to shove we all saw Federer turn it on in the big matches and come out on top. Having always had a competitive h2h vs one of the sports greatest is a very good achievement but Murrays slam h2h has always been a little glaring.

Now I wonder if the Nadal Djokovic rivalry has gone that way. For the first part of their careers Nadal always beat Djokovic at slams, his slam h2h was 5-0 until 2011. Then, as we all know, Djokovic played the tennis of his life and won 3 finals on the trot in less than a year taking it to a competitive 5-3. Yet now he still finds himself 9-3 vs Nadal at slams. Clearly Djokovic has shown at masters level he is considerable force against him and can more than hold his own. Yet when it comes to the big matches where Nadal looks to peak and plays his best tennis (a la Federer) Djokovic comes off second best (a la Murray). His last slam win vs Nadal was now 2 and half years ago and all 3 came within a 7 month period.

As I said at the beginning this may well change, we still have 2 slams left this season alone, but it is an interesting dynamic that has developed in this rivalry.

What do others think, do you think that Djokovic will turn this around before they end their careers?

I am leaning that way myself. I think for one, Novak is physically weaker. He's game causes all sorts of problems for Rafa, so he'll always have a short over three sets, but like Roddick tweeted this afternoon, time is Nadal's friend - the longer he's on court, the more likely it is that there'll only be one winner. Djokovic for a short period seemed to have negated the clock in his battles with Rafa, but I've always maintained AO2012 was where the dynamic changed, mentally, for Djokovic, think he realised that even though he won - it took a monumental piece of him to do it. Think he realised Thayer even though he physically outlasted Nadal, he couldn't physically outlast Nadal, not anymore. Once the clock strikes a certain point it becomes a streetfight, and I think Nole knows it suits Rafa more... As a result he has to hurry the play - but I don't think he can win three sets lasering in on the real estate a metre or so before the baseline. Eventually he'll start to miss.

You can never write off any great champion, but I tend to think Nole will have a mighty struggle moving forward

I am just wondering if this physical weakness is a result of him giving up his gluten-free diet? As I recall it when he began to win slams regularly he had just went onto that diet and did he not give that up about a year or so ago? Seems plausible.

Personally I don't think Djokovic outlasted Nadal physically at the AO in 2012, and it really annoys me that all the headlines state this after any long match win between players. Similarly I don't think Nadal outlasted Djokovic last year at RG. They were both close matches and the winner edged it at the end. Neither of them collapsed in the fifth like Monfils did against Murray for example.

I think you are right though that Djokovic has tried to shorten points quite noticeably since then. In fact I think that it has hurt him against Murray in recent years by coming to the net too often and giving Murray a target when Djokovic is definitely the more powerful baseline player than the two.

The problem for both Andy and Novak is the losses of focus and consistency that blight them over Bo5.

Rafa and Roger in his younger days both buildmomentum during a slam and, once they've found their level are able to sustain it during the later stages.

Andy and Novak are usually all over the place. Great performances are followed by weak performances. Matches that should be over in 3 end up being 4 or 5.

I think the Rafa v Novak rivalry died today. The H2H will remain close and Novak will continue to get victories over Rafa. He may even gain the H2H lead. But it is no longer a rivalry in the slams, which diminishes it enormously.

Bang on! It's the BO5 set format that changes the dynamic so much. Rafa is amazing when it comes to the longer matches, he suffers but has so much experience in that area. His ability to remain at such a high level, over that length of time, is just amazing. His drive to win Major titles is also huge, and he's a different "beast" when it comes to the Majors. I think for him to get to Roger's 17 Majors, he's got to win either this year's Wimbledon or US Open.

Am not bothered if he loses to Djokovic in Beijing, ATP Champs, Rome, etc., as long as he "makes his mark" at the Majors. He's not in the running for most weeks at No 1, or Year End No 1, but the 17 Majors is still a possibility, though that window narrows significantly with each "non French Open" major loss.

Was interested to read in one of the write ups, post final, that Rafa had asked Toni to fetch the doctor to him for the locker room, he was feeling THAT exhausted. Wonder if he'll follow through in Halle, or withdraw due to exhaustion. Wonder if he wouldn't be better off doing that, and then playing the week after, rather than pushing it now with Halle?

Last year's comments about his knees not allowing him to get down to the relatively lower balls on grass? Not sure about those, Brands and Darcis played "lights out" tennis, well above their "mean level" game. I think it's more the exhaustion of the effort he puts out at Roland Garros, both physical and mental. He needs a week away from the mental grind right now, guess we'll see in the next 24 hours, whether he goes and plays in Halle or not.

HM Murdoch wrote:The problem for both Andy and Novak is the losses of focus and consistency that blight them over Bo5.

Rafa and Roger in his younger days both buildmomentum during a slam and, once they've found their level are able to sustain it during the later stages.

Andy and Novak are usually all over the place. Great performances are followed by weak performances. Matches that should be over in 3 end up being 4 or 5.

I think the Rafa v Novak rivalry died today. The H2H will remain close and Novak will continue to get victories over Rafa. He may even gain the H2H lead. But it is no longer a rivalry in the slams, which diminishes it enormously.

I think you are right that the up and down are so much more with Murray and Djokovic than Nadal and Federer, another reason why those two are legends.

I'm quite sure that Murray has great 5 set record in slams, maybe even better than some others of the top four. However, it seems so tainted since so many are five setters against lesser players early on e.g. kohlschrieber and monfils in the last two weeks alone. Djokovi was alos like this a lot pre-2011 but still has more ups and downs such as seppi and Tsonga at RG 2012.

As you say, Nadal and Federer can sustain such a high level over a longer period of time

Your adding more fuel to the fire already burning of Djoko's loss.   

A good article otherwise   

For me Djoko is mentally saturated winning and holding points week after week, year after year, it does take a lot of toll, Fed and Pete were a bit of exception in this that they were able to do it consistently.

DJoko should follow Rafa's foot steps, take some big time off from the game refresh himself [mindset] from the game and come back and make it all count.

While 3 of the big four have taken time off so many times of late, Djoko alone was fighting for every honor week after week, seriously I can't remember when was the last time Rafa, Roger and Andy played a complete tournament in Toronto Masters [I am not counting Montreal]  

While winning is good it adds a big monster at your back to defend them all time and again, Fed on his prime was a typical example of this and losing Wim 08 relieved some pressure and monster of his back.

Djoko should take some 6-7 months off to relax his body and mind, enjoy his new life with the upcoming baby and come back like the No.1e.

Djokovic is a bit up-and-down like Murray during matches. At his peak level, he quite simply negates Nadal's strengths. But sustaining it in 5 sets is a huge ask. The mystery is why it's suddenly such a big task when he did it so comprehensively in 2011 and the 2012 Aussie Open. His physical and mental peak in that tournament was monstrous. Never seen anything like it. I wondered if Nadal would EVER beat him again after that match.

Things can change really quickly in sports though. He's more than capable of rediscovering his mojo.

CaledonianCraig wrote:I am just wondering if this physical weakness is a result of him giving up his gluten-free diet? As I recall it when he began to win slams regularly he had just went onto that diet and did he not give that up about a year or so ago? Seems plausible.

He used to have breathing issues, which after the surgery and the diet change, have not been significant factors. The GF diet may or may not be the silver bullet.

The Best of Five format - in the 21st Century game of tennis - is a Killer Forehand dominant game. You could say that Ivan Lendl was in fact the Father of today's game of tennis: power serving followed up by a lethal Forehand. The reason Federer and Nadal have 30 Majors between them and Djokovic-Murray have 8 between them is because Federer and Nadal have better Forehands than the other two. In a Best of Five, when you have those inevitable downturns like Djokovic did today (and everyone has one in a Best of Five format), the luxury of having that FH which changes the complexion of a rally with a single swing of the racquet helps immeasurably. The Nadal FH is optimal mostly on clay (alothough he's been getting it to be as damaging on other surfaces too), whereas Federer's is good anywhere (or was, in his prime). That's why Federer in Majors has the better of Murray by far, and that's why Nadal has Djokovic that way too. For Djokovic and Murray, their strengths are similar: Return extremely well; BH are almost flawless (but even flawless, a BH is still a defensive shot); and the ability to cover the court like a rabbit. But when the form within a Best of Five dips like it does for every player, their defending is really what they continue to rely on more often than not; neither of them has the Kill Shot they can use to bail themselves out with when that happens. Djokovic is slightly better than Murray at this, which is why his ranking is higher. But they are subject to dangers of having to weather the storms of somebody who has the huge FH - and they don't weather them as often when they themselves don't have that similar shot. It's also about matchups too. Djokovic has 6 Majors, and half of those have come at Nadal's expense. He matches up well with Nadal - and the 2011 to 2012 AO period he had Nadal simply terrified. Since then, Nadal has won their last 4 matches in Best of Five. Mostly because Nadal's legendary FH is one that he can use to save him more often than not.

Nadal’s forehand was by far the biggest weapon in the final, crushing 27 winners to Djokovic’s 17 as the strategic change in directing traffic away from Djokovic’s stronger backhand delivered more and more baseline control as the final developed.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2014/06/23/Roland-Garros-Brain-Game-Nadal-Djokovic-Final.aspx

Federer v Nadal - hit 20 times to the BH and it will break down.

Djokovic v Nadal - hit 20 times to the FH and it will break down.

Nadal Winners (FH=27,BH=5), Errors (Forced FH=17/BH=8, Unforced FH=19/BH=12)

Djokovic Winners (FH=17,BH=8), Errors (Forced FH=10/BH=9, Unforced FH=15/BH=22).



PS: 56 Errors from each.

It's not just a thing with Rafa either.

Since AO12, Novak's slam record against Federer, Nadal and Murray is:

Won: 2
Lost: 7

That's what is killing him at slams. He's so consistent against other players and nearly always makes at least the SF. But he he struggles to beat his main rivals.

It's all about peaks really and declines. I am sure a fully fit Murray would've put Federer to the sword at this year's AO. I think what that H2H might show in the future is that even though Andy made early inroads to Federer in the BO3 format. I still think Andy should've won that US Open in 2008 had he not been overawed by the moment and also Wimbledon 2012. I think when you look at Andy's matches against the other 3 in Slams, it has often been the case that Andy is a very slow starter and they jump right into his game and dismantle it. That has always been the weakness in Andy's game against the other 3. Not going on the attack thinking he can turn it around when conceding the first set against them.

Djokovic and Nadal still has miles on the clock to run and any further success from Djokovic will no doubt be put down to a decline in the Nadal game, rather than a second wind from Novak. Even at this late stage in their careers I think Andy and Novak still have another gear to click into.

Some slightly over the top comments here, for me Novak would only start second favourite against Rafa only at RG, but at the other slams, would have at least a 50/50 chance. Rafa won the US Open final in 2013 because he was in great form at the time, more so than Novak.

Career slam head to head outside RG is 3-3. Djokovic on hard is at 14-7 overall in his career, and won the last 3 hard court encounters in straight sets.