Reasons for Nadal's Wimbledon woes

Krygios played a great match, but I was not so carried away by it as John Mcenroe. His serving was brilliant but off the ground he was erratic and his returning was poor. I think that 2008 Nadal would have beaten him. So my question is: what has happened to Nadal's game on grass?

A few thoughts:

He has looked better this year than when he lost to Darcis but still the same fragilities remain. I may be wrong but it appears that he doesn't move as well as he used to and he make a lot more sloppy errors.

He has struggled against big hitters even when he was winning on grass. In 2010 he nearly lost to pestczher (taking a tatical timeout to save himself) and Hasse so is it simply that his luck in these close matches has run out (for example Krygios could have collapsed in the tie breaks) ?

Would be interested to hear people's opinions on this.

I think Nadal is feeling more vulnerable on grass nowadays.

Take his recent grass defeats.

Rosol blasted him off the court from the baseline and disrupted Nadal's rythym and really got into Nadal's head.

Darcis played some very old school grass tennis. He mixed his play up superbly and again gave Nadal little rythym.

Brown at Halle again old school grass tennis and just powered Nadal off the court. In fairness Nadal didn't look at all interested, but also looked dumbfounded by the aggression in Brown's play.

Kyrgios powered Nadal off the court and went for his shots. His served an absolute clinic. Nadal just coudn't get the returns of serve into play. Again Kyrgios gave Nadal no rythym and played at his own pace.

If he hit flat and hard against Nadal and given the ball travels much lower on the grass than clay, it puts Nadal in trouble.

These guys also punished the Nadal short ball. Something Djokovic did in 2011 when he beat Nadal across all 3 surfaces.

The reward is there. It's just most who have tried have never found the consistency to do it season in, season out.

The simple fact is that Rafa is, and always has been, in trouble against big hitters on fast surfaces
  He's not, I think, ever won an indoor title and has struggled against the big servers in a number of key matches.
  You mention 2008. Well, JWT absolutely wiped the floor with Rafa at the AO semi. No tiebreaks or 7-5s there. It was a demolition. The same year a young Murray, deciding that attack was the best plan against Rafa, beat him in four sets at the USO s-f.
  More recently there was Fed's devastating win at the 02 a couple of years ago and, of course, the Rosol victory at Wimbledon in 2012. Soderling, Rafa's only conqueror at RG, was no shrinking violet when it came to playing a big game, either.
  It's just that Rafa just doesn't seem to make the returns on the big serves that the other top players do. I couldn't see Andy, for instance, getting so few balls back last night, and Djoko, too, would have made a better fist of it.
  Is it that Rafa doesn't BELIEVE he has the game for grass ? He shouldn't think that. After all his overall Wimbledon record aint bad.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I think Nadal is feeling more vulnerable on grass nowadays.

Take his recent grass defeats.

Rosol blasted him off the court from the baseline and disrupted Nadal's rythym and really got into Nadal's head.

Darcis played some very old school grass tennis. He mixed his play up superbly and again gave Nadal little rythym.

Brown at Halle again old school grass tennis and just powered Nadal off the court. In fairness Nadal didn't look at all interested, but also looked dumbfounded by the aggression in Brown's play.

Kyrgios powered Nadal off the court and went for his shots. His served an absolute clinic. Nadal just coudn't get the returns of serve into play. Again Kyrgios gave Nadal no rythym and played at his own pace.

If he hit flat and hard against Nadal and given the ball travels much lower on the grass than clay, it puts Nadal in trouble.

These guys also punished the Nadal short ball. Something Djokovic did in 2011 when he beat Nadal across all 3 surfaces.

The reward is there. It's just most who have tried have never found the consistency to do it season in, season out.

Great summary and reasoning. Also, Rosol, Brown and Kyrgios have amazingly fast serves like you said so the chances of getting the ball in play and contructing a point are few and far between. To beat Nadal on grass you have to have a fast serve eliminating a return. If your serve is not great, that ball is going to be hammered back for winner especially on a second serve. Nadal struggles against players on grass he has never played before.

Maybe its a lack of confidence in his game on grass thats caused these mediocre results or its just the fact that he puts so much into RG that he arrives here exhaused?

I am just wondering whether it is also to do with the courts playing faster the last couple of years. This year in particular it looks to be a faster surface on CC especially where as around 2008 it was really slow.

I think most of the reasons have been touched on here:

1 - He's always found it difficult against really big servers and flat hitters on grass. At his best he was just able to edge the matches, now he's just falling short.

2 - He's a fraction slower. Not enough to make a difference on clay, but on the grass it just makes the difference between defending and being able to counter-punch, so means his opponent is the one dictating the end of most points

3 - Tiredness after the clay season, and particularly after RG. Remember one of Rafa's two Wimby titles came after his RG defeat.

4 - Confidence. Success breeds success - look at Djokovic's unbeaten run a couple of years ago or Murray at Wimbledon at the moment. Knowing that you will win before you start is a big help. Fearing you may lose has the opposite effect.

One other issue that hasn't been touched on - Rafa's serve. While it is a decent shot, he doesn't get all that many cheap points compared with even Djokovic or Federer (neither of whom have overpowering serves, but who have better placement and variation), and so can't race through his own service games and exert as much pressure on his opponent. I'm not sure there's much Rafa can really do now - I don't think his service action would allow him to generate significantly more pace without straining his body and affecting the consistency, and remodelling the action (taking away his forward lean before hitting) would be a big risk considering the serve is good enough for him to win RG consistently and the other slams occasionally.

Dummy Half. Yes, there's no doubt that Rafa wears himself out on the clay (incidentally, he didn't play Wimbledon the year he had his solitary RG defeat).
It's a mental thing, really. Rafa just doesn't approach the grass-court season with any great hope or expectation. Having said that, I really thought he would do well this year, and would at the very least reach the final.

dummy_half wrote:I think most of the reasons have been touched on here:

1 - He's always found it difficult against really big servers and flat hitters on grass. At his best he was just able to edge the matches, now he's just falling short.

2 - He's a fraction slower. Not enough to make a difference on clay, but on the grass it just makes the difference between defending and being able to counter-punch, so means his opponent is the one dictating the end of most points

3 - Tiredness after the clay season, and particularly after RG. Remember one of Rafa's two Wimby titles came after his RG defeat.

4 - Confidence. Success breeds success - look at Djokovic's unbeaten run a couple of years ago or Murray at Wimbledon at the moment. Knowing that you will win before you start is a big help. Fearing you may lose has the opposite effect.

One other issue that hasn't been touched on - Rafa's serve. While it is a decent shot, he doesn't get all that many cheap points compared with even Djokovic or Federer (neither of whom have overpowering serves, but who have better placement and variation), and so can't race through his own service games and exert as much pressure on his opponent. I'm not sure there's much Rafa can really do now - I don't think his service action would allow him to generate significantly more pace without straining his body and affecting the consistency, and remodelling the action (taking away his forward lean before hitting) would be a big risk considering the serve is good enough for him to win RG consistently and the other slams occasionally.

I felt Nadal's serve had improved and in commentary a couple of people did say that too. Before his first round match he was going through his practice session on court 6 I think and he went well over the 30 minutes and for about 20 minutes he kept practicing the serve. So he was focussing on that a lot. He was racing through his service games though.

He lost his serve in the 4th set yesterday for the first time in the match. The last time he was broken was early in the 2nd set last Thursday by Rosol!

In Nadal's post-match interview on the W website, he mentioned second serves at 114mph. He was shell-shocked to some extent. I am not sure who scouts for Nadal and looks at his upcoming opponents, perhaps it is Roig. But whatever strategy was planned, was abysmal. Whoever this person is, should be shown the Gasquet match at least five times as punishment.

It was a magnificent match from Kyrgios, Im looking forward to seeing him play Raonic

LF

Kyrgios first set second serve average was 104mph.

That gradually fell to 94mph by the 4th and the match average was 99mph.

To be fair to Rafa, he only dropped his serve once in four sets yesterday. It only needed a couple of points in the tie breaks to go the other way and it would have been Rafa in 4 rather than Krygios in 4.

I think it was a match that told us more about Kyrgios than it did about Rafa.

People soon forget: James Blake and Mikael Youzhny used to completely own him on fast courts.

As others have said, hard flat hitters have always been his problem. What played to him was that the courts changed to make that very hard to play.

nadal is 28, last time he reached a final here he was 25

bogbrush wrote:People soon forget: James Blake and Mikael Youzhny used to completely own him on fast courts.

As others have said, hard flat hitters have always been his problem. What played to him was that the courts changed to make that very hard to play.

Pre-2009 (before he was 23) Nadal was far from his peak level on hardcourts. Blake, Youzhny, Tsonga etc who destroyed him on the surface doesn't factor the steady gains he's made adapting to it. Their beating him has little to do with any surface differences. It has far more to do with Nadal's own level at the time.

Another factor that people will probably dismiss but I think is worth talking about is that number 1 puts a big target on player's heads and it's one that Djokovic struggled with a bit, and Rafa even more has struggled to deal with. He has never been comfortable at number 1

Aye Boggs, these same people forget Hewitt, Safin, Henman and Roddick owned Federer before the courts were slowed down...

kingraf wrote:Aye Boggs, these same people forget Hewitt, Safin, Henman and Roddick owned Federer before the courts were slowed down...

Well, Henman and Hewitt at least.

How did Roddick win a major, again?

kingraf wrote:Aye Boggs, these same people forget Hewitt, Safin, Henman and Roddick owned Federer before the courts were slowed down...

Roddick? Owned Federer?

What the Hell are you smoking?

Probably the same joint you had when you claimed Youzhny was owning Nadal on fast courts... despite the H2H being 4-3 in Nadals favour off clay before 2008... and Nadal winning their only carpet match for the loss of six games.

Good effort to drag back, but claiming Roddick ever owned Federer is very, very hard ever to come back from, credibility-wise.

You'd have been better off putting an ironic smiley in and claiming never to have meant it.

You'd be better off claiming you jumped the gun stating a player with a losing record owned Nadal

meanwhile.... nadal resting at a beautiful beach

Quote..........

I liked Nadal for biting his trophies instead of kissing them, and for never throwing a racquet in anger and for the time he took, right before a match, to have pictures taken with an elderly lady in a wheelchair who yearned to meet him. And, at the 2010 U.S. Open, I liked the way he answered when I asked, "What would you tell a young player who wants to be a pro?"
""Learn to enjoy suffering,"
he said."

Having seen the video of him arriving in Majorca ... happy and relaxed... he has left his defeat behind him and moved on. Vamos Rafa see you in Canada

I don't doubt that Nadal finds the grass difficult on the knees but I think the Kyrgios match showed that the defeat in 2012 really was as much as Rosol's performance as Nadal's. I mean it was emphasised by Toni how much better he was moving this year, but the same thing happened. The other player took his time away.

Is it really all about grass - if these players had played like that on hard court or even clay (a la Soderling), couldn't they have got the same result? I appreciate that it requires them to play 3 sets well about their normal level, but still, if they can, it's on their racquet.

Let's face it there was nothing in that match so it's hard to pick lots of conclusions out. We know Rafa doesn't like playing hard flat hitters as much but he's faced many before in his career and won. He seems to have a mental block on grass these days...in truth he was too passive at times vs Kyrgios and for me that was the difference vs Nadal 2008. Kyrgios was not better in talent than the Federer 2008 that Nadal faced back then.

But...we also have to recognise the style of the game is moving on. Kyrgios is 9 years younger than Nadal, these younger guys are learning a new brand of power hitting tennis and a lot of the top current guys will struggle against it...especially those who's games are more heavily spin based...the game always moves on. It's starting to now...

I think Rafa's so-called recent Wimbledon woes could have a lot to do with prioritising given his various injury issues. I've read that Rafa says Toni was obsessed with him winning Wimbledon so after he'd won the French a couple of times, Wimbledon became their main focus. He's won it twice and while he gives it everything once he's there on the court, I don't think they prioritise it anymore because it's probably the slam he's least likely to win now. Prioritising was pretty evident during the clay court season. He was vulnerable most of the time in the run-up, but in the 2nd week at RG, the only player who looked remotely like challenging him was Novak.

You only have to look at the stats from the Raonic-Kyrgios match to see whether Rafa's prob was. The ace count for the Aussie was way down, simply because Raohnic was making way more returns than Rafa was the previous day.
Had a look at some of the Cilic-Djoko match. Djoko, too, was getting some amazing balls back. At the French, for example, Rafa just retreats miles behind the baseline and topspins his returns back. Can't do that on grass.
Rafa can't grumble too much. For mos,t facing Rafa is a nightmare, so at least now he's having awkward match-ups of his own.