PGA Tour: The "PGA" - Best Major, or an Afterthought?: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Strange, isn't it, that the lightly regarded "Fourth Major" invariably has the best field and often the most interesting finish?
The ambition to produce the Top 100 in the owgr has clearly been punctured with Dustin Johnson absent, Tiger Woods a doubt, and others (Crane, Day, DeLaet, Toms) who were sufficiently infirm last week to withdraw from their respective tournaments, but the Top 130 in this week's field won't be matched this year anywhere in the World.

2).You don't need Mark Knopfler to tell you that half the Tour is coming down with Industrial Disease.
No word as to who's got smoker's cough from smoking, brewer's droop from drinking beer, and if Jesus is on hunger strike, dying by degrees, a dozen or two of the field will undoubtedly give up the ghost on the first tees. Not sure about "Rule Brittania, gassy beer, page three"! Have to speak to Poulter about that.

Whatever, we certainly have more than our fair share of casualties, most of whom will play, but whether just going through the motions or not remains to be seen.

3).Another wonderful win from Rory last week - reckon he won it on Saturday with birdies on #17 and #18 rather than on Sunday. Those two threes crept him closer to the lead and deeper inside Sergio's head, and early Sunday birdies clinched the deal.
Just a thought as one reflected upon the summer form of Rory, followed albeit at a distance, of Kaymer, Scott, Rose and Garcia:
Are we entering a brand new post-Tiger era of golfing excellence, or has it always been there, just a level below the Woods of a decade ago? I'm inclined to feel we're seeing some separation with Rory at one level, the next five or six consistently just behind, and some distance to those below the top seven or eight players.

4).As at Tuesday afternoon Valhalla time, all we know is that Woods has not yet been to the course and it's anyone's guess as to whether he'll be teeing it up on Thursday. But he won't be a force just because he's playing, he'll only be a force again, if ever, when he sets his ego aside, gets himself properly fit, and ratchets down his swing and resultant effect on his aging physique. Odds against in my book, but he's surprised before.

5).The PGA will be played, for the third time in 20 years, at Valhalla GC a Jack Nicklaus design outside Louisville, Kentucky. The Par-71 was also the venue for Azinger's Ryder Cup Team victory in 2008.
Several of the Team members from 2008 played well, Mickelson among them to go with Top Ten finishes in the 1996 (T8) and 2000 (T9) PGA Championships. Robert Karlsson was entering the best run of form of his life, Messrs Mahan, Rose and McDowell made promising Ryder Cup debuts, and Poulter excelled in a losing cause.

6).Others in the field with PGA Championship / Ryder Cup form who might be expected to contend (so not you Mark Brooks, nor even Kenny Perry who will doubtless perform well following his Langer-beating effort last week) include:
1996 PGA:
T17: Furyk
T24: Jimenez
T61: Els

2000 PGA:
3rd: Thomas Bjorn
T16: Westwood
T19: Cabrera (Nantz looked at Faldo as if he had two heads when sirnick suggested El Pato as a contender this week)
T34: Els, Garcia (who's on recent record as saying he doesn't like the course, certainly played as if he didn't in the Ryder Cup)
T64: Jimenez
T72: Furyk

2008 Ryder Cup:
0.5 pt: Jimenez, Stricker
1.0 pt: Casey, Garcia, Westwood
1.5 pts: Stenson
2.0 pts: Karlsson, Mickelson (playing mostly with a young hotshot called Kim)
2.5 pts: Furyk, Holmes, McDowell
3.0 pts: Rose
3.5 pts: Mahan
4.0 pts: Poulter

7).European chances:
Got to include McIlroy of course and I like the chances of Bjorn, Karlsson, Rose and Stenson.
Can't see Sergio contending while there's chat about Kaymer having back/neck issues.
Hopefully McDowell will play well but is this course a little too long for him? He'll be off on paternity leave shortly.
Big week for Donald (nah) and Donaldson. And will Lowry bring his links form to the Blue Grass?

8).Americans, also playing to earn a spot on Watson's Ryder Cup Team:
Bradley and Fowler are in great form right now.
Dufner's got his bulging discs and wonder if Valhalla is just too long for Furyk and Zach Johnson (who needs a good result for Ryder Cup ambitions)?
No doubt Kuchar will be there or thereabouts, perhaps Mahan will rediscover his form of 2008, while Snedeker and Holmes are local-ish.
And I wouldn't rule out Mickelson, somewhat (and rightly so) overlooked all year, but he found something last Sunday - can he keep it going?

9)."Internationals":
Great to see Ogilvy pick up his win last week and like him and Scott best of the Aussies, especially given Day's fitness issues.
No South African has won in the US for three years and can't see that changing.
But I love Cabrera's recent form and expect him to make some noise, while Matsuyama has already won on one Nicklaus course this year.

10).It won't be the stiflingly hot August week that you'd expect in Louisville, but there'll be enough humidity to make it feel warm and precipitate random thundershowers.
Hopefully the cream will rise to the top as it has for most big events this year.
The PGA won't have the glamour of The Masters, the history of the US Open or the tradition of The Open Championship, but it will host the best field and will surely provide a deserving winner.
Hope ailing stars get healthy and we enjoy a great Championship.

Mac,
What's playing Golf got to do with recognizing slow play? My take on Fowler yesterday was that all the final groups were being rushed and golfers were pacing themselves.
Kostis made the point early in the round when Rory had made a couple of bogeys that his demise at the Masters came about when he and Cabrera were playing their shots quickly behind slow play. Slow, slow, quick, quick, slow if you will. Given the time spent waiting on every Sunday shot, he thought that could happen again.

It looked as if Bones and JP were trying to get their players to pace themselves - if Rickie was taking longer than usual in his routine, perhaps that was part of the same process?

Regardless, Fowler is usually a fast player and, although I haven't played with him, I've followed him a few times over the years, much faster than the average pro.

Even if Fowler & Mickelson played slowly, that would be irrelevant to Rory's pace of play as all the final four groups, and probably more that they didn't show, were being held up on every shot.

McLaren wrote:...Navy

I guess you are just conditioned to accept the status quo like all men who play golf long enough,.

No. I am, however, reflective enough to see that your overly simplistic 'solution' is nothing of the sort and fails to take account of far too many contributing factors. Maybe, just maybe, it's you who fails to understand as you obviously don't play enough to appreciate the problem(s).

Mac doesn't like waiting. Sometimes that bus just seems to take forever eh Mac?

Mac could do us all a service if he'd design an overtaking lane on the golf course so that faster players could play through without interfering with slow-coaches. (I'm sure Rickie and Phil would have used it to get by Jason Day for instance.)
Expect the "Dear Pete, Love Mac" letter of recommendation to the R&A to be posted here first.

Rory top of the FedEx Cup standings having played 10 fewer events than Jimmy Walker in second. Impressive.

Super

Last Thursday.


Kwini

Just seems like Rickie has many of the habits that the slow players I have played with have. No need for suggestions of letters to anyone. Day as you mention, is another extremely slow player.

I should stop stealing things from princedracs twitter, but for some reason he won't post his stuff on here anymore. So here is something I thought was pretty interesting;

Spoiler:

It's gonna be a thrilling Final Series of the Race to Dubai... cough cough...  

I haven't been through all the posts on here but was pretty surprised that after the rain delay the US PGA didn't try a two tee start as they did in the Open. By doing the one tee start they virtually guaranteed a finish in darkness and pretty much eliminated the European audience. I went to bed about 11pm and Rory was on about the 6th hole so no point in even trying to stay up.

We can moan about how slow they are but the bottom line is that they are slow and get away with it so in the final round of a major they were going to take ages.

From what I saw the hold up wasn't Fowler's fault up to this point as I remember one hole (possibly the 6th) where the last 4 were all sat on the tee waiting for the group in front.

Despite all the positive media attention, why doesnt fowler win regularly(at all)? Hes an enigma. All departments of his game are good and seems to have a good attitude. With westwood, Donald and garcia its easy to see why the dont win as often as they should but its hard to find a reason why fowler has hardly won as a pro.

This year at least the answer to your question has partly been "Rory McIlroy" (in that he's hit top form just as Rickie did and is frankly better).

More meaningful is that he's gone through some major swing changes and I would guess they are still bedding in. He's still young and learning his trade and I think the next couple of years might be a pivotal period for him. If you're still asking the question after that, then I'd say it would be more significant.

I wonder if Rickie is a bit like early Duval, someone who knocks on the door but, when he finally opens it, will win a lot?
I know he's won in Charlotte and Korea, but he's playing at a whole other level right now.

One interesting thing about his stats is that none of them are absolutely great, and his Round 1 (70th) and Round 2 (125th) scoring ranks suggest he puts himself in to a hole before rebounding on weekends. Does he have a hard time gaining focus?

Plus: His "driving accuracy" (121st) and greens hit (122nd) are not compensated for by great putting (90th, just a bit better than average).

Everything points to just a little more improvement all the way around; meanwhile, if it wasn't for his great Major performances and instead those Top 5's were in run-of-the-mill events, we might look at Rickie in the same light as, say, Ryan Palmer or even Ryan Moore - pop up and win once every other year or so, but no more prolific than that.

Not sure that Jordan Spieth is much different, but obviously a few years younger.

As good as Fowler is, I can't see him turning from a two time winner into anything like as prolific as McIlroy.
Probably top American player at present though, but I think Spieth is the one who might outshine him long term.

Spieth looks like a bit of Luke Donald to me. His driving isn't very impressive. Average distance (tour wise) and only hits just over half his fairways.
I don't think he's long enough to be a big big player long term

Some players have a habit of turning up at big tournaments only. Besides Fowler, other examples are Day, Poulter and Cabrera. I don’t want to second guess but focus could easily be the reason.

At least Fowler has progressed more than Overton, who used to be hyped just as much as Fowler is, has yet to win a pro tournament.

I'm genuinely interested to see how fat Lowry fare's over next season, if he can shed a bit more weight (2 stone) over the winter he could be one of the young European elite, (not that he looks young)

super_realist wrote:At least Fowler has progressed more than Overton, who used to be hyped just as much as Fowler is, has yet to win a pro tournament.

I happily forgot about Boom-Baby. Maybe he’s the one with a new driver stalking Tom Watson?

Overton never received 1/10th the hype of Fowler, not in the States anyway.

Is Rickie actually rated by anyone with any real golf knowledge?

I can't see him ever being a regular in the OWGR top 10. It would be even more surprising to see him win a major.

Shut up Mac.

Super I quick look at some of the up and coming talent around the same age as Fowler; Spieth, Day, Matsuyama, Bradley, Dubuisson, Manassero, Koepka and of course McIlory, shows that he is nothing special when compared to his peers.

He may have the odd good run of form but as kwini pointed out some of his key stats are poor and I see others performing more consistently than him.

Mac,
I'm no fan of Fowler, but it's clear his Harmon Swing changes have produced results.
4 top 5's at this years majors suggest he's knocking at the door and pretty bloody consistent.

I've no reason to defend him, and I don't want him to do well, but he's certainly in a group of players at a slightly lower level than McIlroy, but who is at McIlroy's level?

Fowler has (almost) been as consistent as Coco this year, just at a slightly lower level. 8 top10's of 21 played vs Coco's 11 top10s of 17.

Agreed s_r,
Mac's been down the pub perhaps a little bit TOO early.

PS: Has Keegan Bradley peaked? Very conflicted with his putter especially, alternating long, short, long, long, short.

Super

Did you read my post.  Quite clearly I listed players not on Rory's level but easily as good if not better than Fowler.

Yeah, but I don't see Day, Dubuisson, Bradley or Kopeka as being any better than Fowler.

kwinigolfer wrote:
PS: Has Keegan Bradley peaked? Very conflicted with his putter especially, alternating long, short, long, long, short.

I hope he has peaked. But I wouldn't be surprised to see him earn a RC pick.

Bradley a Captain's pick? Dead cert.

Kwini

Bradley only strengthens my point. Is there any point getting over excited about Fowler's future prospects at the moment?

Pick any number of players from my list above and they have had weeks after which the media have claimed they are the new big thing in waiting.

Interesting factoid.
Gerry Watson, America's number one player in the US Ryder Cup qualification table actually has a worse Ryder Cup record than 9C.

super_realist wrote:Interesting factoid.
Gerry Watson, America's number one player in the US Ryder Cup qualification table actually has a worse Ryder Cup record than 9C.

And he doesn't like playing abroad.... If it rains he'll probably score 0 points.

Mac,
Four Top Fives in Four Majors with a lower stroke average than Rors is pretty swift; surely you must agree that it surpasses most, if not all, the nearly men you offer as peer competitors?
I don't see Rickie as a frequent Major winner but his achievements this year suggest he's on his way to a new level.

Kwini

I agree that he is on the way to a new level. That level being somewhere just outside the OWGR top 10, and never that much better. Remember he was 56 earlier this year. So he has already made a lot of progress.

Kuchar is #7, been in the top 10 for a while, don't see how Fowler is less of a player than him.

Kuchar is a bit like Stricker. Always near the top but you never really have/had them on your Major short list.

Kuchar and stricker are short hitters so i can see why they dont have great records in the majors. If there long game is just slightly off form its difficult to compete. Fowler on the other hand can get it out there and when hes hot with the putter hes as good as anybody. I agree with kwini that when he wins again he will become a prolific winner(obviously not as much as mcilroy)

Plenty of long hitters with poor records in the majors. Being long doesn't guarantee anything, just as being an average hitter like Immelman, Bible Zach, YE Yang or Weir doesn't mean you can't win a major.

Agree that it doesnt guarantee anything, but if u look at whos won majors recently the vast majority hit it further than the average tour player. It seems all the courses are around 7400 yards in soft conditions(because of rain mostly) This clearly gives the longer hitters a huge advantage. Every major these days seems to have 240yard par 3s and 500yard par 4s. Donald said on twitter he had a 2iron into 16 compared to 9iron for rory. There playing different courses.

Kaymer and Rose are only 3 yards longer than tour average, hardly significant, while Gmac is 15 yards shorter than tour average. Webb Simpson also shorter than average.

Obviously if you can hit it long and straight it's going to be a huge advantage, but the longer hitters also tend to have the poorest accuracy.

Distance is only one of a million factors that decide who wins tournaments, putting and short game is many times more important.