Aviva Premiership Round One

Bath have no backup at No10.

We will struggle to kick on this year imo and can see us having a real struggle over the first couple months of the league and Euro campaign.

Sale to win by more than 5pts.

Globogym. Love it.   Though who is Average Joe's?   Perhaps your team?

As for my predictions:

Saints 5 points, Gloucester 0
Sale 4 points, Bath 1
Saracens 5, Wasps 0
Leicester 5, Newcastle 0
London Irish 1, Quins 4
London Welsh 1, Exeter 4

I'd settle for Average Joes beshocked, would be an upgrade from the well below average position we've been in in recent years!

Scrumpy, I like your style fella, playing down your teams chances.  You're fooling nobody though, we all know that Bath are champions in waiting with the worlds greatest league convert soon to arrive! 

Whilst I am in no doubt Glaws will be infinitely better this year, I do feel it will take to Christmas before we start playing to a unified game plan. Our entire way of playing has been changed and I simply cannot see us being in a position to beat Saints at FG. I think we shall show glimpses, but it would be a real achievement to come away with a LBP.

Having said that our pack was light years ahead of last season in our friendly against Munster (reserves). It hasn't been since the days of Woodman and Vickery that our scrum has been so low. To get a penalty try and 2 pushover tries is a real tonic. Afoa and Hibbard both looked very sharp and it was notable how effective Kvesic was. But I'm not getting carried away...

Although i don't do it often, i share Scrumpy's concerns. We've got real problems at 10 due to injury, but even without those problems, i would be really cautious about predicting a win away at Sale. They are a very canny unit, they did the double over us last year and they are my dark horses for the top 6 this year.

[quote]Saturday 6th September 2014 15:00 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons

A few new faces at Welford Road this summer, and they will be missing their first choice props for the start of the season with Ayerza on international duty and Cole still in rehab. Falcons may see this as an area they can target, however the noises coming from the north indicate that they may be looking to be more expansive this season in line with their new 4G playing surface. This would be a risk, as there is plenty of firepower in the Tigers back division and if they look to trade blows in that regard I can see Leicester winning it comfortably. That said, Tigers can be slow starters, albeit they pace their season pretty well normally, and I don't see them blowing Falcons away in this one. Reasonably comfortable home win in the end, but they'll know they've had to work for it and Newcastle may head back home with at least a losing bonus point in the bag.[/quote]

Not if the dirge i witnessed on Saturday is repeated....they'll tear us a new one!!

Bathite, do you not have the permatanned one to cover at 10?  

GF, did you not split your side and play 2 friendlies at the same time?  I suspect your full XV will be considerably stronger than what you showed in those two games.


Surprised that everyone is playing down their sides chances of success so far, I thought the beginning of the season was when fans were at their most optimistic!!!

We do indeed have the permatanned one to cover, but he is exactly that, cover. He's our only 10 option fit for the start of the season. To be honest, i think our squad is weaker than it was last year. Heathcote and Bendy are big losses and Burgess is a big gamble

I don't reckon Bendy will be that great a loss for you.  Anthony Watson will fill that void and then some.  Heathcote maybe, especially if you've not brought anyone else in to play at 10, but your pack is as strong if not stronger than it was, and although I agree you need a plan B if you want to beat the top boys, I reckon you will have too much power up front for Sale in round one.

GF, did you not split your side and play 2 friendlies at the same time?  I suspect your full XV will be considerably stronger than what you showed in those two games.

Yes we did, however i would still expect a team of first and top academy lads to know the basics and be drilled in them....ie

The Breakdown...we were appalling
Defence on the fringe of the rucks...non existence

But most of all intelligence...

Yes we have a spanking new pitch...but the weather was hoying it down...the ball was like a bar of soap...intelligence would suggest that once 4/5 of our players had knocked on in the 1st ten minutes you change tactics from throwing the ball around like Fiji....erm that would be a nope!

What also concerns me is that ive raised this on the Falcons unoffy and all the fans think im crazy...ie NEW pitch why play tactical???!!!

Bathite wrote:Although i don't do it often, i share Scrumpy's concerns. We've got real problems at 10 due to injury, but even without those problems, i would be really cautious about predicting a win away at Sale. They are a very canny unit, they did the double over us last year and they are my dark horses for the top 6 this year.

Completely agree with you, no Garvey or Louw plus no game time in the friendlies for Ford worries me. Braid is a far better player than Mercer (or whoever replaces Louw) and I think we will struggle to retain much possession. I think a LBP for Bath.

Elsewhere... I am struggling to see too many changes from last season really. I think the top 3 will be the same as last year with Quins, Glaws and Bath competing for the 4th spot. I then think there will be a pretty interchangeable group with Welsh adrift at the bottom.

For me there will be wins for Saints, Sale, Sarries, Quins, Leicester and Exeter.


I like the idea of Farrell 'working up a mental sweat too' by reading a dictionary!

Bathman in London - in regards to Farrell what are you referring to? Has he said something in the media recently?

I was just enjoying the idea of Sarries being Globogym and was picturing Farrell as Ben Stillers character in the film. Although maybe Ashton would be more appropriate...

Fair enough. Actually I think Farrell is appropriate.

Missing both Louw and Garvey will be a big loss to Bath.

 Garvey out with ligament damage in the ankle again.

 I mean bath have some good talent there but that is a massive drop down, even if Burgess plays there he will need to learn.

 Could have a big affect on there first 6 AP games:

 Sale (A)
 Welsh (H)
 Leicester (H)
 Saints (A)
 Sarries (H)
 Wasps (A)

 And without those 2 they will struggle imo.

3rd,4th and 5th game sequence is brutal - unless it's during AIs which might work in Bath's favour.

First 6 games are pre AI's I believe.

Ozzy3213 wrote:First 6 games are pre AI's I believe.

 But not Rugby championships which finish October 4th, although not many AP clubs will have players missing.



 So they will be missing Louw and Garvey which makes things very tough in the backrow for them.

Those two will be misses....who replaces them..Houston and Fearns?

Whos the young openside that Bath have....we he be starting all the games?

Ozzy3213 wrote:I don't reckon Bendy will be that great a loss for you.  Anthony Watson will fill that void and then some.  Heathcote maybe, especially if you've not brought anyone else in to play at 10, but your pack is as strong if not stronger than it was, and although I agree you need a plan B if you want to beat the top boys, I reckon you will have too much power up front for Sale in round one.

Bendy will be a massive loss. Watson is no way near that level yet on the wing and completely untested at FB.

I think you are overrating Bendy, as we all do with our own players.  As an outsider looking in Bendy was always a fantastic attacking threat, but on occasions was a defensive liability for you guys.  Watson can and does provide that threat going forward and given time in the 15 jersey (where he played most of his junior rugby) he will sharpen both his attacking and defensive skills quickly.

In relation to Bath in this particular game, I agree 10 could be an issue, but Henson is hardly a rookie thrown in at the deep end, and whilst Garvey and Louw will be missed, Fearns and Houston are actually top quality players in their own right and more than capable of doing a job against Sale.

Incidentally a Sale fan on Twitter said to me yesterday that they will finish in the top 3 this season.  I didn't agree, but I do admire his confidence.  Am surprised that you lot on here don't share that confidence and bravado about your own sides chances, even beshocked has been fairly muted whilst pointing out that GloboGym will pick up 5 points on the opening weekend!!!

Ozzy3213 wrote:I think you are overrating Bendy, as we all do with our own players.  As an outsider looking in Bendy was always a fantastic attacking threat, but on occasions was a defensive liability for you guys.  Watson can and does provide that threat going forward and given time in the 15 jersey (where he played most of his junior rugby) he will sharpen both his attacking and defensive skills quickly.

In relation to Bath in this particular game, I agree 10 could be an issue, but Henson is hardly a rookie thrown in at the deep end, and whilst Garvey and Louw will be missed, Fearns and Houston are actually top quality players in their own right and more than capable of doing a job against Sale.

Incidentally a Sale fan on Twitter said to me yesterday that they will finish in the top 3 this season.  I didn't agree, but I do admire his confidence. Am surprised that you lot on here don't share that confidence and bravado about your own sides chances, even beshocked has been fairly muted whilst pointing out that GloboGym will pick up 5 points on the opening weekend!!!

Not me.

Tigers are going to win the AP, and get to the semi-final (at least) in Europe this year.

Ozzy, there's confidence and bravado and then there's realism! Each year we seem to say the Jeff is even more competitive and this year the same can be said. It is pretty likely that Sarries, Saints and Tigers will be in the top 4 but Quins, Bath, Sale, Wasps and hopefully Glaws are all in for a shout for the remaining place if not the top 6. As you rightly point out Irish have notably improved their pack and whilst Exeter seem to be considered as the team that will fall from grace, they surely are still in with a chance of top 6. For me it is only Falcons and Welsh who can be ruled out of a top 6 place.

With this added competition I think it is easy to perhaps lack the bravado as so many teams appear to have recruited well. I am delighted by the signings Glaws have made, but the likes of Tigers and Wasps have equally made some very shrewd signings. I would perhaps be more confident, but given this time last year I genuinely felt Glaws were going to build on the 5th place finish I am being somewhat reserved.

I fancy Goucester this season, and a gelled Bath team, I don't think it would be so wild to say both may just make the top 4, wouldn't comment on the team to miss out though.

I will reserve my judgement on glous until start of season.

I think some times people put much into preseason.

Ozzy3123 there's not much to say really - Globogym will be strong so will Tigers and Saints. The other teams - who knows?

As for Globogym - they are starting to get a reputation for not winning the big games though they have made some clever signings in my opinion.

Neutralee the team most likely to miss out is Quins in my opinion. I still think they can be overpowered/outmuscled - plus their other top 4 rivals have better strength in depth.

Ozzy3213 wrote:I think you are overrating Bendy, as we all do with our own players.  As an outsider looking in Bendy was always a fantastic attacking threat, but on occasions was a defensive liability for you guys.  Watson can and does provide that threat going forward and given time in the 15 jersey (where he played most of his junior rugby) he will sharpen both his attacking and defensive skills quickly.

In relation to Bath in this particular game, I agree 10 could be an issue, but Henson is hardly a rookie thrown in at the deep end, and whilst Garvey and Louw will be missed, Fearns and Houston are actually top quality players in their own right and more than capable of doing a job against Sale.

Incidentally a Sale fan on Twitter said to me yesterday that they will finish in the top 3 this season.  I didn't agree, but I do admire his confidence.  Am surprised that you lot on here don't share that confidence and bravado about your own sides chances, even beshocked has been fairly muted whilst pointing out that GloboGym will pick up 5 points on the opening weekend!!!

I just think Bendy was massively under rated by all, defensively he was an issue 3/4 seasons ago, but that's long gone and Watson is over hyped and unproven. I guess the truth is somewhere between. The good news is that Arscott is a good enough back up if Watson bombs. 

I'm just not convinced we've got a squad that much stronger than last year, whilst others have improved

beshocked wrote:Ozzy3123 there's not much to say really - Globogym will be strong so will Tigers and Saints. The other teams - who knows?

As for Globogym - they are starting to get a reputation for not winning the big games though they have made some clever signings in my opinion.

Neutralee the team most likely to miss out is Quins in my opinion. I still think they can be overpowered/outmuscled - plus their other top 4 rivals have better strength in depth.

I agree Quins will miss out.  To be fair they will be so shell shocked after we beat them at the double header it will take them until the new year to recover!!! 

Bathite depends who you compare Abendanon to.

Not as good as Goode,Brown or Foden in my opinion but he still was one of the top full backs in the AP.

Certainly a good servant of Bath, important player and a decent full back.

I agree Watson is over hyped and unproven.

We'll see if Watson can fill Abendanon's boots. He's certainly got the potential but not every player makes it.

We'll see if Watson can fill Abendanon's boots. He's certainly got the potential but not every player makes it.

.

That sums up so many of Englands "Saviours" at the moment...

I was unsure on Watson when he was at Irish, his brother was touted as the next big thing before him and never quite made it in XV's.  However, since he's been at Bath I have been very impressed.  I think he will fulfil his potential, and Bomber is obviously keen, having involved him in training with the EPS.

Bath won't make the top four this year and after the first 6 games we'll be in the bottom half of the league.

Far too many ????????? about the team at present and we haven't recruited well over the summer imo.

I was very impressed with watson at the back, but then I wonder how much space did he get because of bendys presence, Roko is good but he dosnt see the space and create it for others like bendy did.

Will Watson be targeted more now and will he be able to develop to it.

Watsons a talented guy hence why SL has had him training with the England squad and why Bendy started to look over his shoulder, far too soon to say if his going to be a great for Bath and England, but he will be a very good AP player for years to come if he keeps doing what he is doing.

Is Watson definately starting at 15 now? Has that been confirmed?

So that means both him and Nowell - wingers in the EPS - will be (or should be) starting 15's for their clubs.

I'll ask Bruce when I see him later Geordie!

But if it was up to me, if fit he starts at 15.

If you can do that please and let me know cheers

Going out on a limb, I am increasingly wondering if Tigers might struggle more this year than they historically have. On the plus side, last year's injury crisis was worse than usual and they may give away fewer internationals than in previous seasons.

On the minus side, Welford Road is a game to target for several teams these days, they didn't make the final last year and it looks to me like they have had unusually high turnover with a net loss in quality.

Poorfour wrote:Going out on a limb, I am increasingly wondering if Tigers might struggle more this year than they historically have. On the plus side, last year's injury crisis was worse than usual and they may give away fewer internationals than in previous seasons.

On the minus side, Welford Road is a game to target for several teams these days, they didn't make the final last year and it looks to me like they have had unusually high turnover with a net loss in quality.

 
 What?

 we have had
 Rizzo ----> Stankovich
 Sio -----> Schuster
 Ghilrandi ----> Hawkins
 Thorn ----> Mafi
 Bariberi ----> Waldrom
 Pearce ----> Noone
 Burns ----> Flood
 Bai ---> Lamb
 Loamanu ----> Bowden

 IMO only Thorn/Mafi and Burns/Flood could be agrued as losses against Gains but even then many could argue otherwise.

 Last seasons recruitment was poor (other than Williams, Mele, Gibson and Scully )

 TBH we had a worst season before and hit back stronger.

 What's promising is the new recurits have brought into Tigers ethos quicker than a lot before.

 Loamanu for me could be a key signing due to him being able to play 6,8,13,14,15 and is more of a like for like replacement for Manu than Goneva, when was the last time we had a big 13 when Manu has been away.

 Last season with Manu injuryed we had more Forwards out there trying to do what he does but they lacked the speed (Crane, Youngs etc), with Loamanu and Pohe steeping up there we have good depth in midfield size.

 FYI New D coach arrived last week and had only a couple of session training with the players but I thought the line speed was looking much sharper in pre-season hopefully it will be fully tweaked in 2 weeks time.

Scrumpy wrote:I'll ask Bruce when I see him later Geordie!

But if it was up to me, if fit he starts at 15.

I agree, but the fact we signed Arscott makes me think he will spend plenty of time on the wing still...

I cant see the Tigers struggling to be fair Poorfour they look like they have a strong squad...and even some of their academy lads look like crackers.

Poorfour wrote:Going out on a limb, I am increasingly wondering if Tigers might struggle more this year than they historically have. On the plus side, last year's injury crisis was worse than usual and they may give away fewer internationals than in previous seasons.

On the minus side, Welford Road is a game to target for several teams these days, they didn't make the final last year and it looks to me like they have had unusually high turnover with a net loss in quality.

You're joking right?

Not as many injuries this year. Not as many internationals. They have recruited very well in the opinionof a great many supporters - just who would you suggest wasn't a quality signing this year?

Tigers enter this season stronger than several past, and they won the AP 2 years ago...

GeordieFalcon wrote:I cant see the Tigers struggling to be fair Poorfour they look like they have a strong squad...and even some of their academy lads look like crackers.

I think he's pis sed.

Bathman_in_London wrote:

Scrumpy wrote:I'll ask Bruce when I see him later Geordie!

But if it was up to me, if fit he starts at 15.

I agree, but the fact we signed Arscott makes me think he will spend plenty of time on the wing still...

But if it was up to me, if fit he starts at 15 !

Agree - Tigers have recruited well.Tigers also have good strength in depth. Their squad has a much more foreign flavour to it but I cannot blame them for that - they feel it is necessary to continue to contend with the top teams in the AP.

Burns certainly has no excuse for not performing as the Tigers pack will give him a decent platform.

It's a great first round of games. Sale vs Bath and Saints vs Glaws are the two crackers for me.

My predictions for the first weekend:

Saints vs Glaws - Saints win, but by not more than 5 points. This one will be close and that meaty Glaws pack will not be intimidated by an equally powerful Saints pack.

Sale vs Bath - I'm tipping Bath for a strong season and I think they'll have enough to sneak this, agains by not more than 5 points.

Sarries vs Wasps - home win, possibly 4 try bonus point.

Tigers vs Newcastle - home win, but I don't think there'll be a bonus point for either side.

LI vs Quins - away win, possibly 4 try bonus point.

LW vs Exeter - away win. It's going to be a tough season for LW, and it'll take time for the side to gel. Exeter are a well run outfit with a strong team ethic build up over a number of seasons. LW will through the kitchen sink, but it won't be enough.

beshocked wrote:Agree - Tigers have recruited well.Tigers also have good strength in depth. Their squad has a much more foreign flavour to it but I cannot blame them for that - they feel it is necessary to continue to contend with the top teams in the AP.

Burns certainly has no excuse for not performing as the Tigers pack will give him a decent platform.

It does and for me that's a bit disappointing. But, on the other hand, Tigers will not lose so many to international duty (not many last season either) and so they shouldn't lose as much momentum during international windows. Plus, the foreign contingent in the AP hasn't really harmed England's (Tigers') chances of late. Tigers do have a good academy and seek to progress those players through when possible, so they're doing their bit.

Tigers still have a pretty strong group of talented English players though. I'm no expert of their squad, but they can call upon the following group of players:

1.? 2.T Youngs 3.Cole 4.Slater 5.Parling 6.Croft 7.? 8.Crane 9.B Youngs 10.Burns 11.Thompstone 12.Allen 13.Tuilagi 14.Benjamin 15.Tait

I count that as two positions where there isn't a prominent/decent English qualified player available, and I'm no doubt missing someone.