Nadal: How many games does he drop today?

My guess is that if he's functioning properly he drops no more than 6 games today. It might be more, maybe less, it's not a strict thing BUT if a set goes to 5-5 or worse I'm saying he's off-peak.

A right hander, not tall, whose never got past the 2nd round of any Slam will do well to make any kind of impact in any set.

I'm predicting some baked goods and nothing closer than 6-3.

I think he will drop 7 games today. I am sure we will see a much more clinical Nadal today

Nadal will come out firing with a point to prove today.
He'll lose no more than 9 games - assuming he's got half decent form again.

I agree. No more than 7 games loss. If one doesn;t have weapons like a big serve or a deadly FH, it can be extremely one sided v Rafa. I have never seen his opponent play but I'd say more likely to lose 4 games than 7.

Rafa has great success vs fellow Spaniards, so I'll say he'll drop only 7 games

Oh boy...he's lost 8 games already and only halfway through 2nd set.

This is Rafa, but not as we know him...he cant even pummel a journeyman from his own country who would normally frankly faint at the prospect of playing him. He cant seem to close out break points or serving for sets these days - lack of belief.
On the other hand, there may be some mitigation with the autumnal and windy weather there today which might be a "leveller".

However, I'd like to see the last set won in confectionary style to at least restore some 'credibility' to this match.

This must be very concerning to Nadal and his camp. This guy is, as Lydian says, a complete journeyman yet he's actually looked much better than Nadal throughout the 3rd set except for a lack of nerve.

No kick serve to look back on. I agree wind is a nasty leveller, but it's the fact that this guy doesn't look frightened of rallying with him that would bother me.

He'll be glad to see Davydenko going out.

Rafa wont have much gas in the tank at this rate...over 7 hours on court already. The other guy played at the peak of his powers but Nadal was again feeding mid court balls and looking unsure of himself. All is not well inside that head of his and this match wont help at all. The results says straight sets but it was anything but a straight win, Nadal had to come back from 1-5 there.

Doesnt bode well for FO number 6....

I still think a double-handed backhand is required to trouble him though. It's like sometimes Rafa was designed to be Kryptonite for Federer, the player designed to be the perfect match-up against Fed. It's a different matter with 2011 Djokovic though.

It certainly puts the Isner match and the American performance in perspective.

This encounter with Andujar reminded me a lot of the Lendl /Chang in 86? where Lendl went down 5 levels. Andujar was made to play even more poorly than his actual level due to the pressure and trying to put away Nadal to quickly.

The way to do it is teh djoko way: never rushing against Nadal.

Although it was a bad match, Nadal wasnt actually in danger of losing it. He just made it much much harder than it should have been. Andujar did probably play the match of his life in large parts but it doesnt cover the cracks in Rafa's game.

To be fair Nadal should have won Miami against Djokovic and some of the others were close too - and all this while I think Nadal isnt the same player as 2010. His major weakness is feeding Djokovic midcourt balls which Nole hoovers up by pummelling down the lines (better than any other player) with force. Until Nadal solves the problem of hitting short (some of it is standing back too far) he's going to have hard matches against everyone because he's not taking the ball early and therefore allowing the other guys to dictate. Its a strange mentality he's got himself into. Uncle T was talking vigorously all match - me thinks Nadal is in for a good talking to later. You dont have to be a top coach to spot the basic errors at the moment.

Yes, Nole keeps calm against Rafa - but for me the problem Rafa has isnt Nole, its Rafa.

It's as if Rafa is so stubborn that he won't change what has been up until now a winning formula.....we can all see it isn't working, and whatever is going on in that boy's mind, he needs to work it out...and soon.

He shouldn't be getting into tussles with guys like this, and that's not to take away from Andujar's effort today, but it shouldn't be happening. The 2011 Rafa is lacking confidence, something I never though I would see.

The other players are learning how to play Rafa...to work out his game and to dissect it.....Rafa always talks of changing and improving his game, maybe now would be a good time to put some of the talking in place.

denzilsmom, Rafa i think is as you mentioned suffering a bit of confidence issues also he is under tremendous pressure. You have the pressure of trying to fight for the #1 ranking, the borg record, and his recent losing streak to Novak. Personally, I disagree with some people who say that he can't change or doesn't have the ability. He has grown a great deal since the teenager that won in paris in 05. His serve his better, his volleys are improved, his slice backhand is stronger. But Rafa is a player that feeds off emotion and more than technical issues I think that he isn't emotionally all there confidence wise. Also maybe the players on tour don't fear him as much on clay after the two losses to Djokovic like they used to. This fear factor is worth at least a break over the course of a match and when it goes it goes, until you beat it back into the heads of the opposition.

Personally, I disagree with some people who say that he can't change or doesn't have the ability.
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Well now would be a good time for Nadal to show his array of shots and tactics but guess what, we won't see it, win or lose his next match or next championship!

What we saw instead today was another of his compatriot collapsing like Almagro, Robredo, Floppy, Ferrer, and others did before Andujar.

Maybe he will this tournament or maybe he won't. But the tour is fickle and the pack is relentless. On the ATP the second you stop getting better you start to lose and your ranking drops no matter who you are. I think he will find away to make adjustments and improvements that will keep at or near the top of the game. Its a process maybe he has a bad year or half a year and finds away to improve and make adjustments, he is still young enough and a good enough player. Also lets take into consideration that he has won two tournaments and played in 4 finals out of seven tournaments that he has entered this year. He has lost five matches out 30 some odd matches and 4 of the matches to one player who is on a mindboggling run of form.

On the ATP the second you stop getting better you start to lose .....
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Right, in regard of the above, can you now explain the 2003-07 weak era you have been talking about?

It was good to see Rafa 'tough' it out. Sometimes he needs to win ugly and this shows that abillity. Credit to Andujar, he went for his shots and some paid off. A more conservative player might have tried to draw more UE's from Nadal and not rushed into making winner after winner. It shows just what it takes to be a top player being able to grind out a result. I think Nadal will turn it around and I think once he finds a performance to his usual high standards.

Tenez, when have I ever mentioned weak era. Not once, are you confusing me with unbiased educator? I argued that today's top ten is tougher than the top ten from 2003-07, how is that inconsistent with my statement that on the ATP tour the second you stop getting better you start to lose? In fact, it is entirely consistent. I am not a weak era proponent never have been. You win with the competition and the conditions you are given that has always been my position. And as for the top ten in 2005 that we were discussing in another thread. My only point, which was clearly determinative in the argument was that to judge today's top ten against those players you would have to wait until this current crop finished their careers or at least wait a few years so you could compare the legacies of the two seperate top tens. Please find one post where I stated 2003-07 was a weak era. i think tennis is better today than it was then, I don't back away from that, but I never stated that era was weak, while I think the competition is currently tougher from top to bottom.

Whoa guys. I can't believe some of you are saying that this is not looking good for Rafa. Now look at this in this way; Rafa since last April has been on one hell of a ride, winning 3/4 GS since then, completely rolling over everyone at last year in the clay season, even this season apart from Djokovic. Making 5/5 Masters finals, a new record of the open era. Yeah sure so far his FO performances haven't been convincing and today the third set lasted as long as Fed's match yesterday lasted, but you cannot expect Rafa to come out and play 100% all and every single time, if he did he would have retired a long time ago. This happens to all players, every player has at one time or another had blips, even on the top of their game.


Sure the fact that he's been on court for 7 hours in 2 matches isn't a good sign, but the fact is he's getting the Ws next to his name, players are having to play the matches of life to take a set off him, let alone winning matches (Apart from Djokovic who has been winning matches against him ofcourse). Every player goes through these blips and when their confidence is not very good, but what distinguishes these greats from the rest of the pack is when they are able to win even on their most awful of days. Isner had to play the match of his life, heck he even had to go to S/V to try and beat Nadal and even then he couldn't accomplish the feat. Today I'd say NAdal was a bit lucky in that his opponent was the biggest shanker I've ever seen, but still he stuck in there and never gave up.

Iamawesome, I agree with you to a certain extent, but disagree in some finer points. Rafa isn't really slumping afterall in the seven events he has completed this year he has been to six finals winning two big tournaments. And he is #2 in the points race. However here is the distinction, there is a guy on tour right now who has improved much more than he has in the last six months and has taken away the mantle of best player in the game from him regardless of what the rankings say. Andy Murray is growing as a player, Del Po is rounding into shape. And so far this season Rafa hasn't shown much variety to his game or the ability to make adjustments. It has always been the case that if you don't get better the pack will hunt you down and have you for lunch. Right now while he isn't slumping the gap that existed between him and the rest of tour has dwindled. He needs to show that he can win in other ways and improve. This could be just a minislump, or a reflection of novak's recent form but it also could be the start of a disturbing trend that he needs to correct. Other players on tour are growing and getting better if he wants to stay at the very, very top of the game so does he.

socal1976 wrote:Iamawesome, I agree with you to a certain extent, but disagree in some finer points. Rafa isn't really slumping afterall in the seven events he has completed this year he has been to six finals winning two big tournaments. And he is #2 in the points race. However here is the distinction, there is a guy on tour right now who has improved much more than he has in the last six months and has taken away the mantle of best player in the game from him regardless of what the rankings say. Andy Murray is growing as a player, Del Po is rounding into shape. And so far this season Rafa hasn't shown much variety to his game or the ability to make adjustments. It has always been the case that if you don't get better the pack will hunt you down and have you for lunch. Right now while he isn't slumping the gap that existed between him and the rest of tour has dwindled. He needs to show that he can win in other ways and improve. This could be just a minislump, or a reflection of novak's recent form but it also could be the start of a disturbing trend that he needs to correct. Other players on tour are growing and getting better if he wants to stay at the very, very top of the game so does he.

Hmmmm ..... I also understand what you are saying. I'd say regardless or not if he wins the FO we need to give it some time to truly find out what it is that has got Rafa into this form. It could just be a temporary blip, like as I said everyone faces, could be an unknown new allergy he's developed, could be personal reasons (Family etc) or could just be the start of his natural decline. I read somewhere which I agree with, that Rafa has the tennis mileage of a 30 year old player.

The continual injuries and all those matches do come into play but i don't think it is so much a physical decline. I think it is a little bit of a confidence issue and a tactical issue. And as you say the guy has lost 5 matches this year, 4 of to one player, and in the other one he was clearly injured. But he has already dropped more sets in this french open than he did all of last season. To me though it gets back to a little more belief and a few minor changes in his strategy, physically when he isn't hurt he is still at the very top of the tour.

socal1976 wrote:The continual injuries and all those matches do come into play but i don't think it is so much a physical decline. I think it is a little bit of a confidence issue and a tactical issue. And as you say the guy has lost 5 matches this year, 4 of to one player, and in the other one he was clearly injured. But he has already dropped more sets in this french open than he did all of last season. To me though it gets back to a little more belief and a few minor changes in his strategy, physically when he isn't hurt he is still at the very top of the tour.

Hmmmmmm I'm not too sure about him not declining. I'm definately seeing Nadal half a step slower these days, which to me signals a very early decline in the process, but like I said this all can't be said from only a few tournament. We need to give it a year at least and see what is happening. And tactically he hasn't figured out this 'reformed' Djokovic, but I'm sure him and Toni are looking at ways to play against Djokovic.

Iamawesome, as to the physical decline aspects we have to watch and see but to me he seems to still move like a gazelle. As for figuring the reformed Djokovic I think the new Djokovic is not a good matchup for Nadal. In the past 3 things allowed Nadal to defeat Djokovic and rack up such a dominant head to head.

1. Novak's disastrous serving from mid 2009 till the end of 2010: Novak changed racquets, changed service motions, changed coaches, and then went back to his old motion that had served him so well before. All of these changes through his serve into an 18 month downspiral that he didn't fix until Davis Cup final of 2010. Now its unlikely that Novak will tinker with it or lose it like he did for that 18 months period. In the past it was just very easy for Nadal to break Novak.

2. Conditioning and allergy issues: Playing Nadal is the ultimate conditioning test and this was a big issue for Novak sometimes he would be breathing heavy and look like he was suffocating half way through the first set, in those circumstances you aren't ever going to fare too well against Rafa.

3. Mental maturity: In the past he lacked the belief and the focus that Fed and Nadal possessed so he would lose the big points and tank in the crucial moments, but again this issue seems well past him.

There is a playbook for beating Nole but it requires a player to attack him with short slice, drop shots, and when he goes to his forehand to hit it flat, hard, and early. To use variety and get to net, to pounce on Djokovic's second serve and to mix up your own service delivery. In short you want to get Novak out of his comfort zone of standing on or near the baseline and just slugging. But unfortunately for Rafa that is not his style of play. With Novak's two hander you are best off giving him a lot of low balls and angled slice. Fed used to be able to really execute this gameplan and Murray can as well. But shortening points, mixing in a lot of angled slice is not really Nadal's strong suit. The weakness of the two hander is the low ball especially when you have to move into the court.

Nadal is certainly not declining physically. There is nothing to suggest that. The reason some might think he is a step slower is that the balls fly faster and that makes him look more rushed that he ususally is, especially on clay.

And that is also the reason he plays poorly cause he doesn;t quite control the rally as he can when the ball drags down towards the baseline.

To me it just shows how Nadal would have painfully struggled in old Wimby conds.

If it wasn't for a hugely improved Djoko, Nadal may have won 4 TMS and everything on clay thus far again.

His lack of confidence is terrible. He has played his first two round like he played Roddick's first set in the O2. As simple as that.

I am sure he will improve in the next round.

I agree with tenez there, I mean he has played in 6 finals out of 7 tournaments. However one guy on tour who was very close to him and Roger in the past has hit his stride and improved a great deal, upping the bar so to speak. This in my mind and the pressure of all the points he has to defend have seen him lose a little bit of his edge. Still in 8 or 10 days if he lifts the RG crown most people won't be talking about his slump in form anymore. Again I think it is a lot like what Federer has been going through. Nadal has set the bar so staggeringly high for himself that its almost impossible to repeat that over and over again. But the only thing that I find disturbing is that he hasn't shown aggression, hasn't shown any variety or ability to change things up a bit. If he wants to keep winning like he has in the past he will have to take up the challenge from the likes of Nole, Del Po, and Murray and add to his current arsenal.

Lets face it Nadal 2011 isnt the same as Nadal 2010. He has said in his interviews, and yesterday again - just read his post match interview script, that his movement is slower due to him thinking too much, i.e. he's feeling nervous. He's not free-flowing like he normally does. Its nothing to do with decline. Its all in his head.

Similarly, he keeps hitting the ball mid court which Djokovic is hoovering up - and other players too. Nadal knows he's doing this but has lost some touch and feel for the ball (which he has said) plus he knows he's standing too far back.

So he knows all his problems, he just needs to find a way back from them and if any player can you know its Nadal who will find the way. Once he's back and playing as we know he can then its game on vs Djokovic. A full flight Nadal - i.e. the 100% version not the 60% version we currently have (who's still getting to finals nonetheless - most players would be delighted with his 2011 record) is still too much for Djokovic on clay in my book. The question is whether he can find his form before the quarters.

Lydian, a full flight Nadal maybe too much for new novak on clay or he might not be. Lets remember until Djokovic beat him in Madrid nobody was talking about a slumping nadal who lacks confidence. He blasted his way through Monaco and Barcelona and lost just one set to a Roger who was playing brilliantly till the final of Madrid. While a full flight Nadal vs. Novak 2.0 on clay probably would tilt in Nadal's favor, I don't think the same could be said of full flight Nadal v. full flight Djoko on a hardcourt or indoor court. Grass you would have to give it to Nadal but I think the new/old Djoko serve and his improved volleys will make him tougher on grass as well. And grass is a small one month of the season anyway.

Its all in his head.
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Yes and we know Nadal doesn't like to be in the number one position and much prefer to be the challenger. He plays better when 1/5 down than at 5 all.

I have always questioned Nadal's real mental strength. Not his ability to fight cause we know his main weapon is his stamina so he is an excellent fighter but to me he is not showing the real mental strength than a Wilander or a Sampras had. I even think that Federer is stronger mentally. The challenge for Federer when facing Nadal os that he is not as fit physically and that certainly affected his mental strength. But at equal form, Federer is much stronger in my view.

Really Tenez, all I have to say to your mentally stronger Federer analysis is 18 break points federer blew in his match up against Nadal in the 2008 final. Does a player with mental fortitude give away 18 break opportunities, he lost that match because of the way he played on break point when all the pressure was on Nadal, Nadal responded. And that had nothing to do with fitness he had those opportunities in first set till the fifth set and Nadal ballsed up and Fed wilted.

Sorry I dont buy this Nadal not mentally strong stuff, the benefit of poor-form hindsight is wonderful.
Nadal's main weapon is not stamina - he beat Federer for the loss of 4-games in the 2008 final, no stamina needed there. He beat him the first time they played on hardcourt in 2 sets, no stamina needed there. And we all know the H2H between them both isnt driven by stamina. Many of their 5 set matches were determined by who had the strongest resolve when it went down to the wire. And there are countless other examples of Nadal beating other players in similar ways across 2,3,4, or 5 sets.
Indeed, Nadal's 5-set and close-match record is amazing. Federer's isnt yet you think him mentally stronger. Didnt Federer have psychological coaching to stop him panicing in close match situations in his early 20s.
All players go through rough patches of form, this is Nadal's turn. And yet his 2011 record is QFFWWFF, hardly a disaster!
Sure Wilander and Sampras were mentally tough, so was Borg and others, e.g. Connors, but Nadal is also up there. His results speak for themselves and I'm sorry, you dont win 9 slams across all surfaces by 24 without being hugely mentally strong.

Nadal's main weapon is not stamina
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That's a non-starter for a serious discussion. You keep making the same mistake.

We already mentioned to you that stamina is not assessed over a 5 setter but how quick you recover after 2 or 3 20-shot gruelling rallies. If you can;t recover your breath fast enough to stay sharp for the next point, you are going to pull the trigger quicker at the next point and likely to make a mistake. This will define the rhythm of your game. This is exactly why players refuse to rally against Nadal. They try to shorten the rallies, often by going for too much cause they know they haven't got the stamina to keep on rallying.

Nadal's main share of points doesn't come from his winners but from his opponent mistakes!

This is exactly what Djoko and Murray understood and why they worked hard enough not to be pushed into pulling the trigger too fast. They can now Rally with Nadal and that certainly pushes Nadal to go for too much or simply run out of steam cause he hasn;t got the weapons to dictate.

Nadal tends to score more winners than his opponents in matches if you look at the post match stats. He also scores less unforced errors due to his consistency.

I again dont buy the 2 or 3 20-shot rally argument. If we're deep into a 5th set then yes 20 shot rallies will count. But in the first 2 sets all these top 20-30 players are very fit and can last these type of rallies early on. Nadal wins many of his matches without matches having to go full distance and you cant say that top players are getting tired after just one set. Sure, they get disheartened by Nadal's defensive and consistency skills and hence go for winners because they know they cant generally break him down but I dont buy its for stamina reasons.
You then seem to contradict by saying Djoko and Murray dont pull the trigger too fast...i.e. they have the stamina to last with him. And yes they do.
Nadal does have the weapons to dictate, just not this year against Nole so far due to loss of form. He's not recognised as having the most dangerous forehand in the male game for no reason. Again, look at the winners Nadal scores in his matches vs opponents when on form.

Nadal tends to score more winners than his opponents in matches
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But that's irrelevent! they only account for 10 to 20 % of the points won by Nadal, it's the 40% of UEs from his opponent that make the numbers. Look again yesterday v AnduJar, it's all his UEs on set and BPs that earned Nadal a 3 setter.

And your 2008 FO final match exactly proves my point. Federer was not up to the task physically and and therefore ran like a headless chicken to the net to cut the rallies short cause he knew he did not have Rafa's stamina, and that year he knew he was furtherst than ever from it. This match is actually the perfect example proving my point.