Can Ireland make the RWC final?

There is an elephant in the room when it comes to Rugby World Cup, and the elephant’s name is Ireland. Ireland has never made the Semi Finals of the Rugby World Cup, when people suggest the names of teams that have a realistic chance of making the Rugby World Cup final, Ireland merely gets a passing comment, however very few think about it seriously.

After seeing Ireland beating South Africa this past weekend with guile and cunning planning, I started looking at their chances for next year.

Currently the Six Nations champions, although England (4), France (5) and Wales (4) have all won more Six Nation trophies than Ireland (2), it might surprise some that they are only 1 win behind France and 2 wins behind England on the all time Six nation table.

It does suggest that Ireland has been a consistent performer over the period since 2000.

When you look at the Rugby World Cup pool Ireland find themselves in their major competition comes from France, and considering the turmoil they have been under you have to wonder whether France will be able to pull it together before then.

If Ireland wins their pool they are most likely to meet Argentina in their quarter final match, which by recent history could easily see them making the semi finals where they are likely to meet either England, Wales or Australia.

Who wants to bet they don’t have a decent chance of making the final?

PS. I was to peeved off after our poor performance this weekend, and although I have given Ireland their dues I have not congratulated them on their win, so well done, you outplayed, outsmarted and outlasted us on the weekend.

I think they have a good shot. As long as they beat France in the pools they will play Argentina in the QF and AUS/ENG prob. in the SFs. Those games are achievable. If they lose to France then they have a better chance of winning the euromillions.They have a traditionally very poor record against France but beat them in Paris this year. One thing I would add though is that France do tend to perform very well in RWC's. In the 6N if they have no shot at the title they tend to go through the motions.

I still think both ENG and AUS are slightly better sides mind, but not better that they don't have a decent shot at victory. England at home mind will be tricky. they have 4 wins in a row now over Ireland. Its a tough ask.

To be honest I think injuries will determine who qualifies for the final out of Ireland, Australia, England & France. Expect 3 players to be injured from all sides. Which 3 we don't know but whoever is able to put out their first XV, their genuine first XV throughout the tournament will stand a very very good chance of making the final.

Nice article Billtong. The reason we have struggled in the past at the WC is because we werent good enough or as in the last WC we didnt have enough squad depth so we always limped out as injury and fatigue took its toll.

This time around for the first time in our history we can field two teams that are virtually equal in quality. The only guy that is irreplacable is probably Jonathan Sexon.

OH is such a key position for winning world cups I think our chances really revolve around how well he plays.

fa0019 wrote:I think they have a good shot. As long as they beat France in the pools they will play Argentina in the QF and AUS/ENG prob. in the SFs. Those games are achievable. If they lose to France then they have a better chance of winning the euromillions.They have a traditionally very poor record against France but beat them in Paris this year. One thing I would add though is that France do tend to perform very well in RWC's. In the 6N if they have no shot at the title they tend to go through the motions.

I still think both ENG and AUS are slightly better sides mind, but not better that they don't have a decent shot at victory. England at home mind will be tricky. they have 4 wins in a row now over Ireland. Its a tough ask.

To be honest I think injuries will determine who qualifies for the final out of Ireland, Australia, England & France. Expect 3 players to be injured from all sides. Which 3 we don't know but whoever is able to put out their first XV, their genuine first XV throughout the tournament will stand a very very good chance of making the final.

Ireland hasnt lost to France in the last three games. France also tend to be slow starters in the group stages having come second in their last two pools.

for the first time in a long time they failed to win the post Lions 6 nations and they dont look in great shape. That said they as you rightly said are always WC contenders.

I think we should just calm down a little here. In the recent past, Ireland have been capable of big performances but generally only have about one or two in them per year.

Before Ireland start getting hyped up as potential RWC finalists, I would prefer to see them back some big games up with some consistency. I feel the game against Australia will highlight the progress that Ireland are making. 1 big game does not automatically mean that Ireland are a great side, the great sides have consistency and until I see that from Ireland my feet remain firmly on the ground.

Yes definitely.  They're my 'dark horses' this year (although that is often seen as a derogatory term).  I think consistency was sometimes a problem in the recent past - e.g. beating the likes of SA and Aus but losing to lower ranked teams (i.e. lower ranked than SA and Aus) like Wales and France.  But this time they seem better.  I think Schmidt is the real deal.

Urgh! Biltong!

Haven't you learnt anything about us... we want to be underdogs so we can take the complacent big teams by surprise

Oh, us poor Irish have no chance, fiddle dee dee, toraloralora...

We'll be taking the Cup home please and thank you

Nachos Jones wrote:I think we should just calm down a little here. In the recent past, Ireland have been capable of big performances but generally only have about one or two in them per year.

Before Ireland start getting hyped up as potential RWC finalists, I would prefer to see them back some big games up with some consistency. I feel the game against Australia will highlight the progress that Ireland are making. 1 big game does not automatically mean that Ireland are a great side, the great sides have consistency and until I see that from Ireland my feet remain firmly on the ground.

Five in a row not good enough? Italy, France, Argentina away twice and SA hammering at home is fairly consistent. That said we really need to win all our November tests.

On a serious note, I agree with Nachos. 3 out of 3 is what counts for now.

GunsGerms wrote:

Nachos Jones wrote:I think we should just calm down a little here. In the recent past, Ireland have been capable of big performances but generally only have about one or two in them per year.

Before Ireland start getting hyped up as potential RWC finalists, I would prefer to see them back some big games up with some consistency. I feel the game against Australia will highlight the progress that Ireland are making. 1 big game does not automatically mean that Ireland are a great side, the great sides have consistency and until I see that from Ireland my feet remain firmly on the ground.

Five in a row not good enough? Italy, France, Argentina away twice and SA hammering at home is fairly consistent. That said we really need to win all our November tests.

Maybe I should have elaborated a bit better, consistency against the bigger teams.

Italy, well Ireland really should not be loosing to them.
France, in total disarray at the times we played them and in the last 6N, they really should have beaten Ireland.
Argentina, well again, Ireland should be beating them so no great result.
SA, that I fear, is the big game of the year for Ireland. If they back it up against the Aussies then I will feel more confident but recent history has me still feeling uneasy.

GunsGerms wrote:

fa0019 wrote:I think they have a good shot. As long as they beat France in the pools they will play Argentina in the QF and AUS/ENG prob. in the SFs. Those games are achievable. If they lose to France then they have a better chance of winning the euromillions.They have a traditionally very poor record against France but beat them in Paris this year. One thing I would add though is that France do tend to perform very well in RWC's. In the 6N if they have no shot at the title they tend to go through the motions.

I still think both ENG and AUS are slightly better sides mind, but not better that they don't have a decent shot at victory. England at home mind will be tricky. they have 4 wins in a row now over Ireland. Its a tough ask.

To be honest I think injuries will determine who qualifies for the final out of Ireland, Australia, England & France. Expect 3 players to be injured from all sides. Which 3 we don't know but whoever is able to put out their first XV, their genuine first XV throughout the tournament will stand a very very good chance of making the final.

Ireland hasnt lost to France in the last three games. France also tend to be slow starters in the group stages having come second in their last two pools.

for the first time in a long time they failed to win the post Lions 6 nations and they dont look in great shape. That said they as you rightly said are always WC contenders.

That's true but given you have 2 draws in that's 3 so its not exactly conclusive is it. You could say that Ireland have 1 victory in last 7 too. Historically as I said not great but its not in Paris and you have beaten them this year so I think the monkey is off the back so to speak.

All I said was that their record against FRA isn't how they like it to be and that France do tend to be the best NH team at RWC's in terms of maximising potential.

No arguement with that. My feeling is however, the tide is turning a little v France. Beating then in Paris is a very big deal for us so I would be confident that we will beat them at home again next year in the 6n especially given we are unbeaten in Dublin in 2014 so far.

Sexton for world player of the year if we beat Oz?

GunsGerms wrote: No arguement with that. My feeling is however, the tide is turning a little v France. Beating then in Paris is a very big deal for us so I would be confident that we will beat them at home again next year in the 6n especially given we are unbeaten in Dublin in 2014 so far.

Sexton for world player of the year if we beat Oz?

I think he should be nominated to be fair.

I was thinking of this the other day and wondering who... no real standout candidates

I would say

Sexton
Vermeulen
Retallick (whom I'd say probably would be my choice but least likely given lock is never ever seen by the IRB panel)
Savea

If Farrell is good for a nomination a couple of years ago Sexton should be. Probably LeRoux and Vermeulen and the other two you mentioned will be nominated.

Maybe Mike Brown if he has a stormer in his next two games. Big maybe.

I'd love to see Retallick get it. Too many OH's and Flankers get the nod... I think its time the hog carriers got a mention.

I'd love to see Brian O'Driscoll get it. Alas thats impossible.

He will be a hall of famer, thats as much as he can hope for.

Its going to be a very feisty* 6N thats for sure

*Not of course, in its original meaning, unless your team loses too many games

GunsGerms wrote:I'd love to see Brian O'Driscoll get it. Alas thats impossible.

He will be a hall of famer, thats as much as he can hope for.

McCaw won it in 2009, Dusautoir in 2011 so sympathetic decisions for perhaps previous mishaps of judgement are plausible. But yeah in terms of performance he'd be no where near.

We'll see how Ireland goes in the next few weeks and the 6 nations. Can they do it? Yes but so can many other teams.

A lot will come down to squad managment. That goes for all teams. Traditionally Ireland has managed their squad badly ie playing the same team in every game.

If Ireland beat France in this years 6 nations that'll make it 4 games unbeaten against France. So a good sign heading into the world cup. Of course then there's Argentina to deal with, Ireland s world cup nemisis.

I would be cautiously optimistic of a decent run this time. That France match is the key game. Lose that and its the ABs!

fa0019 wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:I'd love to see Brian O'Driscoll get it. Alas thats impossible.

He will be a hall of famer, thats as much as he can hope for.

McCaw won it in 2009, Dusautoir in 2011 so sympathetic decisions for perhaps previous mishaps of judgement are plausible. But yeah in terms of performance he'd be no where near.

I reckon if we beat Australia Schmidt may end up being the coach of the year. Well deserved too.

If we beat France in the group stages then it's really on.
I'd fancy our chances against Argentina in the quarters and then it's one off games of rugby really and anything can happen then!

We are lucky we have such an easy group, that must be taken in to account.

Well, I am certainly not going to disagree with MR Jones.

Notch, you managed to trick the Boks into believing their own hype, so I am just returning the favour

On a serious note, I think Ireland is good value for the Semi's, those are one off games and Schmidt seems to have a few tricks up his sleeve for them

Ireland have a really good chance of making the final for sure. A win against France in the pool is the key and after that the likely route to the final is against teams they have beaten in recent times/will feel very confident going into. Of course NZ in the final will be a different story... But I'd imagine all the neutrals there would be behind them, so you never know!

If we beat Aus then expectations will start to rise. We then have a very good shot at the 6ns with England and France at home which would be the next target. If we are going into the world cup on the back of a good 6ns then a semi will be the minimal requirement and Joe Scmidt will become the patron saint of Ireland

The thing is I think you could easily bunch Argentina, Wales, Ireland, Australia and England together and think there is little diff between them. They have all proved they can beat each other, no stand out. The only one is England because they are at home, otherwise I'd say its near a level playing field.

Injuries, that is the biggest thing. Having a first XV, fully fit team will be the biggest advantage any of those 5 can have.

If the word is CAN, then yes.  Of course they can.  
Would anyone seriously bet heavily against Ireland then if they did indeed make the final?  No matter who they were playing against, you gotta be good to get there (even France last time showed they were good enough to be there whilst perhaps being ultra lazy in the journey ) - a final that required every ounce of blood, passion and fight?  No better side for those three ingredients than Ireland.

So, I'd be happy with a furiously competitive semi-final that went right to the edge.  That would be progress for us in real terms and nobody could say it wasn't a big step up for us.

But a final - making one?  The emotions of readiness for the ultimate battle that would be in a pack of cabbage, turnips and spuds eejits if they got there!  The juices rise even thinking about it.

But I did mention France..... ....the team everyone is once again ignoring in the lead in.

fa0019 wrote: Argentina, Wales, Ireland, Australia and England together and think there is little diff between them. Injuries, that is the biggest thing.

Is Argentina genuinely in with that group? I really don't think so. Not yet.

SecretFly wrote:

fa0019 wrote: Argentina, Wales, Ireland, Australia and England together and think there is little diff between them. Injuries, that is the biggest thing.

Is Argentina genuinely in with that group?  I really don't think so.  Not yet.

Argentina is very much like France. Very hard to place them

If they bring their A game and players they are very tough, if they don't they are very mediocre.

If Ireland made the final they would get slaughtered IMO. Doesnt matter against who but presuming it is against Eng, SA, NZ or Fra then it wouldnt be pretty because given all those teams have made multiple finals before I reckon the absence of memory of what it takes to win and the unique pressures involved would make Ireland crumble. I would find it really hard to watch it anyway.

There has only ever been one RWC without a NH side. Who knows it could be Irelands turn, I would be pretty pleased to make the semi anyway. If we do Schmidt should be given a blank cheque by the IRFU to with it whatever he wants.

GunsGerms wrote:I would be pretty pleased to make the semi anyway. If we do Schmidt should be given a blank cheque by the IRFU to with it whatever he wants.

Em... unfortunately, he might be up for moving along by then, Guns. Three years. That seems to be his habit to date. He might stay on for another 6N and then off to where a semi-final placing might sell him to - back home?

Thats why we should try to tempt him with a blank check. He is the best manager we have ever had and the best manager in world rugby. Evict Bono from his house in Killiney and give it to Schmidt or make him lord mayor of Dublin if you like. Whatever it takes.

GunsGerms wrote:the absence of memory of what it takes to win and the unique pressures involved would make Ireland crumble.

I've heard that 'folk memory' reason coming up before.  
I can't honestly share it.  
It's about players on a field and which side will have more experience of big games and big game mentality? New Zealand strikes me as the only side that will have that kind of benefit over the others.
And surely Schmidt will at least be having the players focused truly on the processes by then.  That's the least that his coaching can offer over the next few months.  
I just can't envisage a Schmidt led side falling under the emotion of the event and crumbling mentally in a game by themselves without just cause (being hit by a totally better side).  No, I expect whoever the opponent would be at a final, they'd have to win it by playing better rugby than us on the day, not simply waiting for us to crumble mentally.

Reference Ireland v NZ last Nov then Fly. Ireland crumbled for the same reason they would crumble in the final.

SecretFly wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:I would be pretty pleased to make the semi anyway. If we do Schmidt should be given a blank cheque by the IRFU to with it whatever he wants.

Em... unfortunately, he might be up for moving along by then, Guns.  Three years.  That seems to be his habit to date.  He might stay on for another 6N and then off to where a semi-final placing might sell him to - back home?

He was going to be heading back to the SH before he took on the Irish job. There is plenty with family that takes time / attention and plenty of co-ordination. Our only hope to holding on to him is if the non-work setup becomes so settled he doesn't want to shake it up with a big move.

The SA game was a great performance, but all Irish fans have been burnt in the past by one-off performances. This felt different and a bit more clinical. You could even see in the team at the final whistle that it was "job done, what's next" rather than joyful celebrations. But we need consistency and that is a another strong performance against Australia (not necessarily a win, but a strong performance) and a developing style heading into the 6Ns.

Could we make a RWC Final? Sure, it could be argued that any of the old 5Ns and 3Ns teams have a chance at making the final. I'd presume the bookies would narrow it down further to England and the 3Ns. Hopefully in after the next two weeks there are a couple of more NH teams looking to put their names more meaningfully into the conversation.

Ideally Schmidt will still be manager when we host the world cup in 2023.

GunsGerms wrote:Thats why we should try to tempt him with a blank check. He is the best manager we have ever had and the best manager in world rugby. Evict Bono from his house in Killiney and give it to Schmidt or make him lord mayor of Dublin if you like. Whatever it takes.

I think the Lord Mayorship might entice him more than a blank cheque or big house. I might be all wrong about him but I think his heart is in rugby rather than in what salary it gives him. He's a Kiwi and along with a bunch of other Kiwis operating in International coaching right now, I'm sure his ultimate coaching dream is his own Nation. He'd have to be making some kind of direction back home soon enough to make it potentially viable.

But yes, I hope he stays...even if we had a disappointing WC again. I think we'd benefit (and are benefiting) in development terms from his continued involvement.

BUT - I'll add this too.

Joe Schmidt has gained as much from Irish rugby and from the qualities of Irish players as they are undoubtedly gaining from him.  
It isn't a one way train of quality - it never was.  He said it himself way back that one player kinda rubber stamped his willingness to come to Leinster in the first place - and it wasn't O'Driscoll.  It was Saturday's flyhalf - Johnny Sexton.  Sexton was the player who said to the coach "You help us get better technically...we, the players will do the motivation"  That impressed Schmidt.

Ireland International players were waiting for a good coaching team - they'd already showed their qualities as individuals in European Club and with EOS to a point.  They're not a bunch of idiots in need of a guy to teach them fundamentals - they simply needed someone to orchestrate smart rugby and to tie down the quality control elements that gives (hopefully) improved consistency.

So, if and when he goes - I'd wish him all the success both as a nice guy with a quite demanding private life and as a coach - but maybe he too will remember his days in Ireland as his most satisfying and possibly even most rewarding on the playing field.

So you never know - maybe he will weigh up pros and cons and be of a mind to stay past his usual three years.

He's contract with us is up in 2016 I believe.

Look, as long as he brings us a clean sweep in the AI's, a grand slam in 2015 and a world cup victory, he'll only have to guide the Lions to a clean sweep in 2017 in NZ and he'll owe us nothing.

To hell with the Lions. They can have Lancaster.... or Gatland again.

Can't see them getting beyond the quarters.

DeludedOptimistorjustDave wrote:Can't see them getting beyond the quarters.

Why? Do you think Ireland will finish 2nd in their group then lose to NZ or do you think they will win their group but lose to Argentina (probably) in the quarters?

DeludedOptimistorjustDave wrote:Can't see them getting beyond the quarters.

So it's OrjustDave today then?

LMAO one win against SA and suddenly talk of Ireland reaching the final!!! LMAO

freemo wrote:LMAO one win against SA and suddenly talk of Ireland reaching the final!!! LMAO

It was a fairly convincing win v the 2nd placed team in the world. If Ireland win their group the highest ranked team they can possibly play will be 3 but it will more likely be England I reckon. If you can beat the 2nd ranked team why not the 3rd or 4th?

Of course Ireland can. They are capable of beating any team in the world. Have they the depth tho to win several games against the top teams in a short space of time that is needed to get to the WC final? I don't know. Its a tall order for them. Lose a crucial player and they are in trouble. Sexton, POC two name two

Sexton is the only irreplaceable player as we have. Ryan, McCarthy, Henderson and Tuohy all experienced locks cant make the team. All teams have one or two irreplaceable players.

A team that have never ever beat the current world champs think they can win.

Ireland have less chance than Wales do winning the RWC,out of the home nations Ireland are on par with Scotland, win the odd big game at home but never ever deliver when it matters some would say it is a culture in the Irish psyche, they are CHOKERS.

Nonsense. Ireland are way ahead of Wales and far more likely to do well at the WC. Look at the rankings.

Biltong.

I think it is a bit early to be thinking of RWC final. They ( Ireland) won their first game of the Ais, lets see how the rest of the Ais + 6 nations go before then.

Plus it will depend a lot on how many injuries they have in the last 2/3 weeks before the RWC starts.

Ireland did well this week end, the only NH team to beat one of the big 3. But that does not mean that they will make the RWC final.

Just saying.

TJ wrote:Of course Ireland can.  They are capable of beating any team in the world.  Have they the depth tho to win several games against the top teams in a short space of time that is needed to get to the WC final?  I don't know.  Its a tall order for them.  Lose a crucial player and they are in trouble.  Sexton, POC two name two

I kinda understand that view TJ but I think it's becoming less and less an issue because Ireland really isn't the Ireland they were anymore.  It's not really a team of individual 'greats' anymore and much more a team honed towards productivity demands and careful adherence to precise gameplans.  

I mean, if we go back to a long time ago - like last Friday! - the general word on the street was that Ireland less Lord O'Driscoll wasn't going to do much except huff'n'puff and then curl up and die under the pressure.

Further back still - the Ireland of last 6N was expected to have a tough time under the transition of head coach and shackled with an old dog who couldn't hunt no more called...... O'Driscoll! - and another old dog who can't run no more nevermind jump in POC.

And yet here we are, a side without Healy (the gorilla shaped lad that yis might remember from yesteryear), without O'Brien (the overweight rifle bullet), without Trimble (probably close to man of the 6N for Ireland) without Best (the warrior hooker) without Earls, Fitz, McFadden, D. Kearney.... and the auld God King BOD himself - still beat the side that beat the ABs playing a game that would have looked quite similar had the more usual players from the 6N been there.

So.... we have at least the makings of a squad of players that are increasingly showing they can intermingle and still play a game good enough to win a good game against good opposition.

As Guns alludes to - even the ABs would be less sure of themselves without rugged talisman McCaw (who once again showed how much they rely on him this weekend)  Ireland are a good team.  Even us Irish are beginning to come round to the idea again! - and, believe me, we're the toughest critics of quality in that regard.

But I do understand the point you make, TJ.  And there very much was a period we all worried about those fateful injuries.  It's just I genuinely think they would impact less now and less so the more Schmidt gets contact with more and more potential players in training.