2015 6 Nations - Win it or Develop For WC

by bedfordwelsh Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:51 am

First off I know the 2 may be achievable BUT with the 6 Nations being the last chance for coaches to try new things out or develop new combinations (Warm up games to late IMO) what do you think your team should do.

Is it worth a coach sacrificing say winning the championship or Slam if he used the games to finally tie down what he wants for the WC. From a Welsh point of view we really need to get our attack sorted (given that Howley will still be with us), we know what Roberts and JD can do so I would really like to see Sc Williams get a decent run in the 6 Nations or another play maker at 12.

Our back row has been settled since the last WC but Baker has had great season for the Os so maybe give him a run.

We have 4 players, Cuthbert, North, Halfpenny and Li Williams vying for the back 3 slots but for me Williams is our best option at XV so would like to see him get a good run there with Halfpenny on the wing ahead of whoever is on form out of the other 2 with maybe Amos chucked on the bench.

I know we all want to win and as I said you may be able to do both with subtle changes what everyone else think.

by **Biltong** Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:54 am

I suspect for each team it would be different, depending on how close each coach is to his first choice matchday 23.

I think the priority for each coach is to find 23 players that can gain as much continuity during the SIx Nations as possible, they might experiment a little with the 8 reserves, but too much experimentation can influence results, and winning is a habit, especially that close to the RWC

by **Notch** Fri Dec 05, 2014 9:57 am

Win it. The only way to develop towards winning in the WC is to get into the winning habit. Winning silverware is the best preparation. Most teams can of course rotate a bit without going down in standard so the two things are not mutually exclusive, but the attitude towards the Six Nations has to be we're going to do whatever it takes to win it.

by **rodders** Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:16 am

Both - having a successful tournament is very important - however it can't be the be all and end all. This needs to be balanced between finalizing the RWC squad and preperation - partularly with it being the NH this year.

Having a good tournament is good for moral and momentum however the correllation between having a good 6N and RWC isn't that great on recent evidence.

England winning the slam in 2003 was a catalyst for the RWC cup, however the 2 best teams in 2007 - Ireland and France had disasterous tournaments, likewise England in 2011.

Peaking for the RWC is the main thing, so teams need to keep their powder dry despite trying to win every game.

I suppose in summary, the players need to be focused on winning each game, but the coaches need to have an eye on the bigger picture.

by **Biltong** Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:36 am

In my view Peaking = luck

You can manage your players to the best of your ability, make the right selections, pick players on form, but nothing is guaranteed, injury, loss of form, etc is out of your hands.

I don't believe you can build to peak in that sense, you can go into a RWC in woeful for, somehow scrape through the pools and "peak" for a couple of matches only to fall short at the final hurdle.

Look at England in 2007 and France in 2011, neither of those teams were peaking coming into the RWC

by Nematode Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:39 am

The coaches have had the past 3 years or so to 'develop'. Over that time they should have gathered a squad of 30 or so players, given them game time, and decided on a playing style.

Quite frankly, every team if properly prepared should be aiming to win the 6 Nations.

I believe Ireland, Italy, and Scotland will do this. All seem to have a set playing style and Ireland in particular has a good squad of interchangeable players.

England should be aiming to win, however, it's back line is a mess - there's some quality players, but combinations are unsettled.

With regard to Wales, Gatland really hasn't blooded enough new players into the first XV, and that will result in tired players costing them matches in the later stages of the competition. (Look how tired they were vs SA - a team like Ireland or NZ can rotate players to combat this and be fresher). Who's Wales' second choice 8 if Faletau gets injured? Is Mike Phillips the best 9 if Webb is injured? What happens if, say, both North and Cuthbert can't play?

They need to use this 6N to try and work out how to bank more points early on so they have a buffer before they keel over vs SH sides at 70 minutes.

by **Biltong** Fri Dec 05, 2014 10:42 am

How can Wales be tired this early in their season?

by **rodders** Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:07 am

Nematode wrote:The coaches have had the past 3 years or so to 'develop'. Over that time they should have gathered a squad of 30 or so players, given them game time, and decided on a playing style.

Well Joe Schmidt and Vern Cotter haven't had 3 years. Players come and go, through form/injury/retirement and relocating to different countries which may hinder or end their selection opportunities. Therefore I agree that perperation should be at an advanced stage, I think it's wrong to say that they should be complete prior to the 6N.

I'd say for Ireland 26 or so are probably nailed on but there are still over 40 players in the frame, including injury back up so this tournament is critical to nail that down, rectify some of the shortcomings we saw in the autumn around the set piece and further develop the playing style, which is still work in progress.

As defending champions and the highest ranked side we should be aiming to win, which would be a huge acheivement, but given the choice I'd rather finish 3rd, getting the preperation right in process and win the RWC.

by dummy_half Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:10 am

From an England perspective I would say winning (and potentially taking a Slam) would be the best development towards the RWC anyway. Winning is a good habit to cultivate...

We know the likely make-up of our pack (including most of the back-up options), the back 3 is coming together and half backs can be picked on form (at present I would favour Care and Ford if everyone is fit and firing).

Centres mainly revolve round whether Manu is fit to play, and if so we need to find the best option at 12 to play alongside him (I'd take a look at Burrell and Barritt over the course of the 6Ns).

Overall, I actually think we are close to establishing a first choice side and have (out of recent necessity) several competent back-ups . Hopefully we can have a tournament where injuries don't seriously compromise selection again.

by **rodders** Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:17 am

dummy_half wrote:From an England perspective I would say winning (and potentially taking a Slam) would be the best development towards the RWC anyway. Winning is a good habit to cultivate...

It is but given the gap between the 6N and RWC I think this is too long for any real carryover in momentum.

We saw that with Ireland in 2007 and also 2011 to some extent, were we finished very strongly. Once you come in to the warm up games you start over and and any subsequent feel good or momentum is quicky lost if these don't go well. You've also got the domestic competitions and Europe sandwiched in between.

I think 2003 was an exception, and more about that side getting a monkey off the back - the evidence generally doesn't support 6N form having an impact on RWC performance.

by offload Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:47 am

Win, win it, win the next one, keep winning, win every one, WIN!

by GunsGerms Fri Dec 05, 2014 11:54 am

For Ireland the plan is to win a grand slam, win the world cup and then sucessfully win our bid to host the world cup. Nothing less will do.

by MichaelT Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:04 pm

England generally do well in the Six Nations in World Cup years - Grand Slams in 1991, 1995, 2003 and winners in 2011. Like Rodders says form then doesn't always mean World Cup success, but something to feel good about as an England fan for 2015.

Wonder if this statement will bite me on the backside next March and October.

by SecretFly Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:32 pm

Yes, this question pops up a lot in sporting terms. Would you sacrifice this to get that?

It's always an interesting question but it's always rhetorical, as it's always very much a question much more planted in debating theory than in the real world.

The Real world is that you want to win everything.
You want to DEVELOP for the WC by winning the 6N.

You don't Have to win the 6N to have a shot at the WC - but developing for the WC means you'd be hoping to trial players, or combinations, or tactics that you'd hope might prove beneficial to the long term goal of WC. That is to say, a plan for the WC should also be a pretty good blueprint for going far in the 6N. The theories of how to win either aren't mutually exclusive.

And if you'd hope to have a system or players that might win a WC, then the object of the 6N 'trials' would be to be as effective as possible - ie, winning.

If you're developing attack and you want to use the 6N to concentrate on that aspect - and you in turn leave less time for other aspects - then I'm not sure what you're learning really. The same players you might use to freshen up attack ideas are going to be the same ones you'll need to defend what you might have gained.

So you still need any players in contention for WC places to show you evidence of a complete game. And you as coach also need to 'trial' a complete game - scoring and sustaining position.

Therefore, I'm not sure the word is ever 'sacrifce' one to have a better chance in another - but 'risk' - yes. Teams will risk things to hone what they already have.

by Guest Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:41 pm

I think it's about timing. You may want to experiment in the first year or two after a world cup, especially if you're losing a number of older players who were hanging on for dear life to play in the WC before hanging up their boots. But 6 months before a WC is not the time for experimenting. You (as an international coach) would surely want to be trying out your best team, injuries permitting, so the players can get as much time together as possible to work on combinations and tactics before the 'big day'. Getting to the world cup with unfamiliar combinations would be worse than experimenting IMO. Injuries happen of course, but I'd prefer to see a settled team in the preceding 6N trying to be as good as they can, as a dress rehearsal for the WC.

Therefore, that 'best possible' team should be aiming for the 6N win as a yard stick of their areas of strength and weakness to be addressed over the summer. Two years ago was the time for blooding new players and trying new fancy tactics.

by Guest Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:44 pm

Or to sum up my previous post more succinctly:

Get 'em in at the start and keep them in until the WC. Discard some, add others, repeat: the 4 year WC cycle.

by bedfordwelsh Fri Dec 05, 2014 12:45 pm

Nematode wrote:

England should be aiming to win, however, it's back line is a mess - there's some quality players, but combinations are unsettled.

With regard to Wales, Gatland really hasn't blooded enough new players into the first XV, and that will result in tired players costing them matches in the later stages of the competition. (Look how tired they were vs SA - a team like Ireland or NZ can rotate players to combat this and be fresher). Who's Wales' second choice 8 if Faletau gets injured? Is Mike Phillips the best 9 if Webb is injured? What happens if, say, both North and Cuthbert can't play?

They need to use this 6N to try and work out how to bank more points early on so they have a buffer before they keel over vs SH sides at 70 minutes.

Nem,

That's my point do (England and Wales) still try and develop during the 6 Nations at the risk of losing or do they go with what they think is their best squad but then if injury strikes have no proven back up.

As regards to Faletau then most would say Baker is the back up and Pitman is looking good but none have been tested at International level yet. I think we all hope Gareth Davies will be Webbs understudy then Rh Williams but again none are vastly experienced.

If North and Cuthbert are both out then it would be Williams and Halfpenny with the next inline probably Amos or Prydie who were both in the AI squad.

by Poorfour Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:11 pm

England's best bet for the RWC is to pick the best available, fit and in form 10-12-13 combination for the 6N and stick with it through to the RWC. They need continuity in the backline, but injury has prevented that.

If they can do that, they have a decent chance to win the 6N, too - though Ireland are looking impressive and Wales's win over SA may be the spur they need to refresh them.

by **rodders** Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:16 pm

GunsGerms wrote:For Ireland the plan is to win a grand slam, win the world cup and then sucessfully win our bid to host the world cup. Nothing less will do.

Totally agree Guns. In fact the emerald isle may as well just sink into the atlantic and be done with it if this doesn't come off.

by GunsGerms Fri Dec 05, 2014 3:31 pm

rodders wrote:
GunsGerms wrote:For Ireland the plan is to win a grand slam, win the world cup and then sucessfully win our bid to host the world cup. Nothing less will do.

Totally agree Guns. In fact the emerald isle may as well just sink into the atlantic and be done with it if this doesn't come off.

Yep or we will could let Germany annexe us and we will just focus on football or something.

by **Notch** Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:09 pm

offload wrote:Win, win it, win the next one, keep winning, win every one, WIN!

Now there's a thinking man! I agree.

I pretty much agree with rodders and biltong though. The Six Nations doesn't have that much of a bearing on what happens, what six months later? Six months is a long time in rugby and the World Cup is really about hitting form at the right time.

You can develop contingency plans maybe, giving guys who are cover in key positions game time and experience lest they be called upon but... yeah, I'm not sure how much the two things have to do with each other.

I wouldn't be in a big hurry to rotate unnecessarily in the Six Nations; i.e. rotating just to give guys experience as opposed to because they are just as good as the incumbents. Thats what the World Cup warm-up games are for.

by The Saint Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:34 pm

The 6 Nations is silverware, win it at all costs. The RWC warm-ups are usually pretty good games, but don't really matter and there isn't as much pressure to win. We'll be playing Ireland when they're in good form, I think just one win against them is vital. Not sure who else we're playing. We can blood some new players in any game so long as it's no more than say.... 3. We've done it before.

by Liam Fri Dec 05, 2014 5:35 pm

I think Wales took too long to blood new players. Only this Autumn have we seen us introduce new players such as Samson Lee. In fact, him and Webb are the only real players we've brought in. For me, players like Preistland and Mike Phillips should have been discarded a long time ago. We've had Owen Williams cement his place at Leicester, Patchell emerge at the Blues and Gareth Davies tearing up the pro 12, yet oddly Rhodri Williams has regularly been chosen ahead of him (work that one out).

This Autumn, we should have given Liam Williams a run at FB, Cory Allen in the centre (especially after his performance vs Aus), Scott Williams given a run, Baker brought in at 8, Lewis Evans at 6, 1/2p tried back out on the wing. For me, we missed a trick. We got the all important win over South Africa, which will hopefully get us over the mental aspect of beating these SH sides. But overall, for me, it was a failure of an Autumn series when looking at the wider picture of introducing fresh faces to the camp. It worked well in the previous world cup, why have we not done it again?

by bedfordwelsh Fri Dec 05, 2014 6:13 pm

Liam wrote:I think Wales took too long to blood new players. Only this Autumn have we seen us introduce new players such as Samson Lee. In fact, him and Webb are the only real players we've brought in. For me, players like Preistland and Mike Phillips should have been discarded a long time ago. We've had Owen Williams cement his place at Leicester, Patchell emerge at the Blues and Gareth Davies tearing up the pro 12, yet oddly Rhodri Williams has regularly been chosen ahead of him (work that one out).

This Autumn, we should have given Liam Williams a run at FB, Cory Allen in the centre (especially after his performance vs Aus), Scott Williams given a run, Baker brought in at 8, Lewis Evans at 6, 1/2p tried back out on the wing. For me, we missed a trick. We got the all important win over South Africa, which will hopefully get us over the mental aspect of beating these SH sides. But overall, for me, it was a failure of an Autumn series when looking at the wider picture of introducing fresh faces to the camp. It worked well in the previous world cup, why have we not done it again?

Liam,

It was the same with Rhodri Jones and Samson Lee, Lee was playing for the Scarlets yet for a while Wales were picking Jones and even in the past when A Jones was injured we tended to swap James or Jenkins to the T/Head.

I would have definately started Li Williams at XV and Halfpenny on the wing and would have gone with Sc Williams over JD given he was on the comeback trail, I am surrpised baker didn't figure at all though some reports say he was carrying a knock.

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