OWGR - End of Year 2014

First topic message reminder :

Former PGATour winner Arjun Atwal wins the Dubai Open, the Asian Tour finale, and the final OWGR rated tournament of 2014.  He goes from ranked in the 1100's to somewhere around #430.

Tommy Fleetwood misses an invite to the 2014 Masters by less than 1 OWGR point (gross).  Every shot counts!! Of course, Fleetwood has an excellent opportunity to crash the top 50 by playing well in the early events of 2015.  He probably needs a couple top 10s in the Middle East to secure a spot in the Cadillac.

Here is the projected top 100 going into 2015.  Players ranked below 50 and already in the Masters are bolded.

1 Rory McIlroy 11.04
2 Henrik Stenson 8.13
3 Adam Scott 7.71
4 Bubba Watson 7.27
5 Sergio Garcia 6.70
6 Justin Rose 6.69
7 Jim Furyk 6.62
8 Jason Day 5.81
9 Jordan Spieth 5.75
10 Rickie Fowler 5.47
11 Matt Kuchar 5.11
12 Martin Kaymer 4.86
13 Billy Horschel 4.48
14 Phil Mickelson 4.45
15 Graeme McDowell 4.16
16 Hideki Matsuyama 4.12
17 Victor Dubuisson 4.02
18 Zach Johnson 3.83
19 Dustin Johnson 3.78
20 Chris Kirk 3.76
21 Jimmy Walker 3.72
22 Hunter Mahan 3.61
23 Patrick Reed 3.51
24 Jamie Donaldson 3.44
25 Kevin Na 3.31
26 Lee Westwood 3.28
27 Ian Poulter 3.23
28 Keegan Bradley 3.16
29 Joost Luiten 3.16
30 Ryan Moore 3.08
31 Charl Schwartzel 3.02
32 Tiger Woods 3.01
33 Luke Donald 2.99
34 Brooks Koepka 2.97
35 Stephen Gallacher 2.91
36 Thomas Bjorn 2.86
37 Thongchai Jaidee 2.83
38 Jason Dufner 2.82
39 Bill Haas 2.81
40 Miguel A Jimenez 2.81
41 Steve Stricker 2.74
42 Ryan Palmer 2.74
43 Webb Simpson 2.71
44 Shane Lowry 2.66
45 Louis Oosthuizen 2.64
46 Marc Leishman 2.60
47 Mikko Ilonen 2.60
48 Gary Woodland 2.56
49 John Senden 2.48
50 Danny Willett 2.47
=====
51 Tommy Fleetwood 2.45
52 Kevin  Streelman 2.44
53 Alexander Levy 2.44
54 Brendon Todd 2.40
55 Francesco Molinari 2.35
56 Koumei Oda 2.34
57 Graham Delaet 2.30
58 Brandt Snedeker 2.30
59 Jonas Blixt 2.29
60 Russell Henley 2.24
61 Marcel Siem 2.23
62 Tim Clark 2.22
63 Ernie Els 2.21
64 Anirban Lahiri 2.08
65 Ben Martin 2.06
66 J.B. Holmes 2.02
67 Hiroshi Iwata 2.02
68 Ross Fisher 2.02
69 Marc Warren 2.01
70 Kevin Stadler 1.97
71 Pablo Larrazabal 1.96
72 Bernd Wiesberger 1.92
73 Angel  Cabrera 1.91
74 Charley Hoffman 1.87
75 Paul Casey 1.85
76 Matt Every 1.85
77 Harris English 1.81
78 Matt Jones 1.81
79 Shingo Katayama 1.81
80 Thorbjorn Olesen 1.78
81 George Coetzee 1.78
82 Branden Grace 1.75
83 Brendon de Jonge 1.73
84 Bae Sang-moon 1.73
85 Cameron Tringale 1.71
86 Brian Harman 1.65
87 Richard Sterne 1.61
88 Hideto Tanihara 1.61
89 Steven Bowditch 1.60
90 Tomohiro Kondo 1.60
91 Robert Streb 1.59
92 Richie Ramsay 1.57
93 Rafael Cabrera Bello 1.56
94 Geoff Ogilvy 1.54
95 Erik Compton 1.52
96 Scott Hend 1.52
97 Romain Wattel 1.51
98 Robert Karlsson 1.51
99 Fabrizio Zanotti 1.50
100 Russell Knox 1.50
===============
101 Hennie Otto 1.50
102 Ryo Ishikawa 1.48
103 Edoardo Molinari 1.47
104 Gonzalo Fdez-Castano 1.47


Rory enters the year with nearly a 3 point lead over Stenson. For perspective, Woods had a 2.1 lead over Scott in 2013 and Rory had a 4.6 lead on Luke in 2012, and Luke had a 2.0 lead over Westwood in 2011.

It doesn't look like Rory's #1 ranking is going to be in jeopardy until at least the Masters.

kwinigolfer wrote:Maybe Jon Rahm Rodgriguez can do the same in the men's game. A win today would be one helluva start.

In that case we still have a Mickelson on top of the leaderboard. Tim that is, the brother of ...., head coach at ASU the Alma Mater of the young Spanish talent.

And it seems Paratore is the next big thing in European golf. Just 18 years old and made the cut in all 5 tourneys so far,.

Another great win for Rory/.

Rory increases his lead on Stenson to 4.05 pts.  To put 4.05 pts in perspective, Stenson could win 2 majors, and Rory could miss the cut in both and Rory would still be ahead of Stenson.

Bubba can become #2 with a win.  Almost certain that he will pass Adam Scott.  (needs Top 40 finish)

Alex Noren get well inside the top 200 (~158th) after his 2nd place.  Where have you been, Alex?

Gary Stal is going to be ranked in the top 90.

Weisberger, Levy, and Warren are tentatively at #48, #49, #50.

With wins at WMO

Laird gets to the top 70.
Hideki could get to #13
Zach could get to #14
Brooks could get to #19

Jon Rahm-bo would be ranked about 110th!!


And Fleetwood, Warren, and Weisberger all passed Tiger Woods with their points today in Dubai.  At best Tiger will be ranked 56th tomorrow.  Molinari will pass Tiger as well if he can hold his position.

Good stuff GPB, Do we assume that Stricker also leaves the Top 50 stage?

The Top Five in the R2D race look arithmetic certs now for Doral: Willett, Fish, Grace, McIlroy obviously, Stal.

Warren and Wiesberger go again in Malaysia on Thursday - hope they make it too. Noren (up to 8th!) is an alternate but perhaps his Top Ten gets him a tee-time, and Andy Sullivan plays too. Big opportunities for all of them.

Yep, Stricker is falling to at least 52nd...possibly 54th depending on Henley and Molinari results later today.

Both Henley and Frankie could displace Levy and Warren out of top 50. Henley is almost a lock to do it (38th), but Frankie needs a Solo 10th to pass both Levy and Warren.

It is a logjam around the Top 50 mark.  That is why Tiger is going to fall at least 9 spots this week.  Every point counts, and there is should be a lot of movement in and out of the top 50 before the Masters deadline.

Right now, #47-#51 are all fulltime Euro Tour players and three of them are not yet qualified for the Masters (#48 Weisberger, #49 Levy, and #50 Warren) .  #47 Willett and #51 Ilonen are already qualified.

and just outside the #50 bubble is #55 Fleetwood, #60 Siem, and #63 Fisher who are not qualified for the Masters yet either.

And of course Molinari is making holes-in-one on the PGATour trying to get inside the top 50 so he can Cadillac and Masters.

A top 4 for Frankie today should clinch both.  Big day for him.

GPB wrote:And Fleetwood, Warren, and Weisberger all passed Tiger Woods with their points today in Dubai.  At best Tiger will be ranked 56th tomorrow.  Molinari will pass Tiger as well if he can hold his position.

Have the "fundamentals" we talked about at the beginning of the year changed for TW needs to do to make the WGC Cadillac... or is it still he needs to earn "around" 20-23 raw OWGR points though Riviera or 24-28 through Honda to qualify?

Not that it may not matter much... barring an incredibly quick turnaround of form... even his most favored Torrey Pines is no lock for points of any amount... and not sure there's enough events on the schedule before the WGC he could add to get the points...

robopz wrote:

GPB wrote:And Fleetwood, Warren, and Weisberger all passed Tiger Woods with their points today in Dubai.  At best Tiger will be ranked 56th tomorrow.  Molinari will pass Tiger as well if he can hold his position.

Have the "fundamentals" we talked about at the beginning of the year changed for TW needs to do to make the WGC Cadillac... or is it still he needs to earn "around" 20-23 raw OWGR points though Riviera or 24-28 through Honda to qualify?  

I have always gone with the assumption that an average of 2.45 will be low end estimate between #50 and #51.  And Tiger needs to earn 18.6 points to be at 2.45.

Before WMPO results, Warren is sitting at #50 with an average 2.408 so I see no reason to change the 2.45 average.  

I am pretty confident that #50 average will be between 2.44 and 2.48.  To be at 2.45 on Feb 22 he needs to earn 18.57 in the next three weeks.  To be at 2.45 on March 2, he needs to earn 23.4 pts.

Its looking like Torrey is going to be rated 52 (SoF ~368).  A solo third or better should get him to Cadillac.

Both Henley and Frankie could displace Levy and Warren out of top 50. Henley is almost a lock to do it (38th), but Frankie needs a Solo 10th to pass both Levy and Warren.

Well I thought it was a lock for Henley.  I didn't expect to shoot in the high 70s today.

Koepka to #19
Bubba is #3
Kaymer moved passed Fowler to #11
Hideki to #14

Great win for Brooks Koepka.  Anyone know who was the blonde with the baby?  He only hugged her, no kisses.

Koepka Looks good. Though think he has a lot of improvements that can be made. It will be good to see him cracking on, he seems to have won people over with the way he has gone about his career. Journeys to far flung places. I still believe hideki is the best young talent out there. He always seems to be close.

Several withdrawals from San Diego today, one or two of which may be significant.
Mahan out, and Bowditch too. Further down the pecking order Ken Duke and naughty boys Overton and Sabbatini are also out.

ben,
Would also think Koepka's experiences in "far flung places" would help him become battle hardened just a little earlier than his early twenty-something contemporaries.

Mahan WD?  More paternity duty I suppose.  

PD said Torrey was going to be OWGR 54.  I only had OWGR 52, perhaps with Mahan's WD, will knock it down to 52.  Duke, Overton and Sabbo are not that big.

PD also tweeted that Malaysia is OWGR-30.