Aviva and Pro 12 comparisions.

A lot of discussion is had on here with people who support Aviva teams being disparaging about the pro 12 and the pro 12 fans defending their league blindly. I thought I would have a look at the two leagues at this point to compare the tables and see what inference we can draw from this. Only a bit of fun chaps. I have tried not to be too selective.

Top of the tables
Pro 12 - top 4 teams separated by just 3 pts with 14 losses between them. top team with 3 losses
AP Top 4 teams separated by 12 pts with 16 losses between them top team with 3 losses.

Bottom of the leagues

Pro 12 bottom 4 teams separated by 12 pts with a mere 11 wins between them
AP - bottom 4 teams separated by 28 pts with 14 wins between them

So the top of the pro 12 is far more competitive with 5 teams just a bonus point win from the top step so 5 teams still in contention to top the league, the AP is really now only between 2 teams separated by a point with 3rd place 9 pts off the top and 5th 13 pts off the top

Bottom of the pro 12 is also more competitive than the Ap but London welshs poor showing skews the numbers somewhat 10th place team in the ap has a better record that 10th in the pro 12

48 bonus points in the pro 12, 68 in the ap. However I don't know if this is more losing bonus points pointing to a more competative league or more winning bonus points meaning more tries scored.

Competition for the euro places ( 4th - 8th) is very close in the AP - only 2 pts between them, Pro 12 4- 8 are separated by 13 points.

So - what conclusions? the pro 12 is far more competitive at the top. One slip up could cost you 4 league places. 5 teams realistically could still top the league. realistically the top of the AP is going to come from 2 teams.

Teams in the middle of the AP are doing better in comparison to their league than in the middle of the pro 12 and its impossible to predict who the euro qualifiers are, in the pro 12 its fairly obvious - edinburgh an outside chance to overtake connacht but otherwise euro places are already settled

London Welsh really do not belong at the top table. Is promotion / relegation really good for the AP? Is it worth having a team as weak in the ap?

Quality comparisons between leagues can be seen from the euro cup - and its fairly even

Interesting stuff. I like the knife edge feel of the top teams in the Pro 12 and this does rather give lie to the myth that teams in the pro 12 can afford to rest players for the euro cup - when one loss could take you out of the playoffs. AP is more competitive in the lower /middle reaches, less so at the top and bottom

One thing - from the data we have now its completely impossible to make any claims for one league being better than the other.

comments?

I forgot the score when the 2 respective top teams played each other this season

That's an interesting post, TJ, but you've ignored quite a bit of context.

This is an unusual year for the AP - London Welsh are by some distance the worst team to be promoted since I've been following it, even worse than when they last came up. That's more down to Welsh's decision to change half their squad over the summer and the improved investment in the traditionally weaker AP teams (Irish and Newcastle) than anything else, though the Championship promotion system doesn't help. Bristol or Worcester would probably be putting up a far better fight had they quaified.

We've also got two unusually dominant teams this year. The explanation probably rests in where teams are in their rebuilding cycles; Saints and Bath are at their peak, Leicester, Quins and to a lesser extent Sarries have slipped back a bit, Wasps and Sale are building. It doesn't usually happen that two teams emerge so strongly so early. Be interesting to see how they cope with the 6 Nations.

That said, if you look at playoff places, the AP is much closer than the PRO12. After the next round of matches, the main possible change in the playoff spots in the PRO12 is that the 5th place team could force its way into the top spots. In the AP. any of the top 8 teams could get int the top 4 next week.

Forgot the score when Bath met Glasgow too

VinceWLB wrote:Forgot the score when Bath's 2nd string & academy forwards met Glasgow too

fixed

Oi - nay bickering! Glasgow being known as the soapdodgers will have real problems with bath but I suspect their fear of soap and water will mean the bath remains empty ;-)

Poorfour wrote:That's an interesting post, TJ, but you've ignored quite a bit of context.

Ta for supplying it.

I thought it would be interesting to compare and it really didn't come out as I thought. In particular the very close fight for euro places in the AP surprised me.

Not convinced by your point about the playoff places.

Next week will see, Ospreys got thrashed by Saints at Franklins, lets see what they can do at the Liberty.

nth wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Forgot the score when Bath's 2nd string & academy forwards met Glasgow too

fixed

For info Glasgow were missing their 1st choice loosehead 1st and 2nd choice tighthead, their main ball carrier in the pack as well as their 1st choice 12.

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Next week will see, Ospreys got thrashed by Saints at Franklins, lets see what they can do at the Liberty.

Ospreys are a funny one - in many ways deservedly the top pro 12 team but a huge surprise to most and obviously not really a match for the top AP teams. Glasgow / leinster etc seem to have a much better chance against the AP teams. dunno why. If the top 4 teams in each leagues played each other I would expect only the Ospreys from the pro 12 to lose.

One thing all this does say to me tho is all this " my league is better than yours" that we have seen from both sides is simply im[possible to see whan you look at the leagues places points etc. I'll have a little look at points difference as well I think

VinceWLB wrote:

nth wrote:

VinceWLB wrote:Forgot the score when Bath's 2nd string & academy forwards met Glasgow too

fixed

For info Glasgow were missing their 1st choice loosehead 1st and 2nd choice tighthead, their main ball carrier in the pack as well as their 1st choice 12.

More than that missing I thought.,

WELL-PAST-IT wrote:Next week will see, Ospreys got thrashed by George North at Franklins, lets see what they can do at the Liberty.

Edit

Now this has really surprised me. 3000 pts scored in the pro 12, 3667 in the AP. It was always my impression that we got higher scores in the pro 12 and more exciting matches. Not what those numbers say

I would expect that Bath will hammer Glasgow in the return fixture, but then Glasgow were in terrific form at the start of the season, while Bath were not. That situation seems to have reversed somewhat and you have to factor in home advantage. The aggregate scores will be interesting

TJ wrote:Now this has really surprised me.  3000 pts scored in the pro 12, 3667 in the AP.  It was always my impression that we got higher scores in the pro 12 and more exciting matches.  Not what those numbers say

Excitement is in the eye of the beholder, as it were. It does seem to have been a vintage year in the AP with a lot of very good games.

As far as the points totals go you may have to allow for the LW factor. If you took out half the points scored vs LW the points comparison would be closer.

lostinwales wrote:I would expect that Bath will hammer Glasgow in the return fixture, but then Glasgow were in terrific form at the start of the season, while Bath were not. That situation seems to have reversed somewhat and you have to factor in home advantage. The aggregate scores will be interesting

No way Jose. Glasgow will beat bath and beat them well. Bath will have been cuffed by Toulouse in france by then and will be out of the cup and will have nothing to play for in that last game. Whereas Glasgow have Montpellier at home and will take 5 pts.

lostinwales wrote:

As far as the points totals go you may have to allow for the LW factor. If you took out half the points scored vs LW the points comparison would be closer.

Welsh points difference -470, Zebre - 170 So remove those 300 pts it does look closer. However I would have put money on there being a lot more points scored in the pro 12.

Its just interesting to look at

You could also look at the TBP & LBP comparisons.

37 TBPs in the AP, 25 in the PRO12

31 LBPs in the AP, 23 in the PRO12

hawalsh wrote:You could also look at the TBP & LBP comparisons.

37 TBPs in the AP, 25 in the PRO12

31 LBPs in the AP, 23 in the PRO12

Cheers - I couldn't see a breakdown of the bonus points. Again a complete suprise to me and its both closer games and more tries scored. Not what I would have predicted at all before starting this exercise - and again the LW factor will not be that significant I would have thought

A query for Premiershipship fans. I note in the Wiki entry for the Premiership, the following sentence in relation to European qualification:

"7th Spot is the team that advances to a play-off against the eighth-placed, or highest-ranked non-qualifier, from the Pro12. If the 2014–15 European Rugby Challenge Cup winner has not already qualified, they will participate in the play off by taking a place given to its league."

Is the bolded bit accurate? If so, does this just apply in the Premiership or in other leagues as well?

TJ wrote:

hawalsh wrote:You could also look at the TBP & LBP comparisons.

37 TBPs in the AP, 25 in the PRO12

31 LBPs in the AP, 23 in the PRO12

Cheers - I couldn't see a breakdown of the bonus points.  Again a complete suprise to me and its both closer games and more tries scored.  Not what I would have predicted at all before starting this exercise - and again the LW factor will not be that significant I would have thought

Most sides would have been looking for TBPs against the league new boys, particularly at home, but if LW had been better you probably would have had 3 or so less from the matches against the rest of the bottom third. Obviously if they had been better that would have more likely increased the LBP number though.

Pot Hale wrote:A query for Premiershipship fans.   I note in the Wiki entry for the Premiership, the following sentence in relation to European qualification:

"7th Spot is the team that advances to a play-off against the eighth-placed, or highest-ranked non-qualifier, from the Pro12. If the 2014–15 European Rugby Challenge Cup winner has not already qualified, they will participate in the play off by taking a place given to its league."

Is the bolded bit accurate?   If so, does this just apply in the Premiership or in other leagues as well?

It was brought in for all leagues during the summer and a point I kept on making during last autumn's discussions on Challenge Cup winner qualification.  I still think that most years the Challenge Cup winner will qualify by league position anyway though.

hawalsh wrote:

TJ wrote:

hawalsh wrote:You could also look at the TBP & LBP comparisons.

37 TBPs in the AP, 25 in the PRO12

31 LBPs in the AP, 23 in the PRO12

Cheers - I couldn't see a breakdown of the bonus points.  Again a complete suprise to me and its both closer games and more tries scored.  Not what I would have predicted at all before starting this exercise - and again the LW factor will not be that significant I would have thought

Most sides would have been looking for TBPs against the league new boys, particularly at home, but if LW had been better you probably would have had 3 or so less from the matches against the rest of the bottom third. Obviously if they had been better that would have more likely increased the LBP number though.

But then most pro 12 sides are looking for bonus points against the Italians.

An interesting exercise and the outcome is not what i would have expected at all.

Pot Hale, that's the normal rule and applies to all leagues (although the Pro12 have 2 spots normally, just one this year due to a French request).

Topping the league is largely irrelevant isn't it? Top 2 is important for the home playoff. Top 4 is important for the league playoffs. Assuming the Italians are bottom...6th are important for Europe. 7th are important for European playoffs. Last is important for the AP. Maximum points for a win is 5 so it's a useful quanta to use.

So for the Aviva Premiership:

There are two teams within 5 points of the top two (9 points to next)
There are eight teams within 5 points of the top four (7 points to the next)
There are eight teams within 5 points of the top six (6 points to the next)
There are 9 teams within 5 points of the top seven (13 points to the next)
There is one team within 5 points of the bottom (20 points to the next)

For the Pro12

There are five teams within 5 points of the top two (10 points to the next)
There are five teams within 5 points of the top four (8 points to the next)
There are 8 teams within 5 points of the top six (11 points to the next)
There are 8 teams within 5 points of the top seven (6 points to the next)

So from that the top 5 are closer grouped in the Pro12 whereas the top two in the AP are. However only those 5 are within grasp of the playoffs in the Pro12, whereas there are 8 teams within touching of the playoffs. Both teams have similar numbers fighting it out for Europe.

As for bonus points...

AP have had 37 TBP (0.47 per games) and the Pro12 have had 25 (0.32 per game), some this clearly the London Welsh factor.

AP have had 31 LBP (40% of games) and the Pro12 have had 23 (29% of games).

If we discount the London Welsh games, and assume that everyone got a TBP, which I'm pretty sure they didin't, then AP has 24 TBP (0.37 per game). And the LBP stays at 31 (now 48% of games).

So, even discounting London Welsh, the AP tends to have more TBP but also close games. Is this because defences are loose on both sides? One side storming ahead and taking their foot off the accelerator? Or well contested games?

What can this tell us about the quality of the leagues? Nothing really. But it's all good fun.

Is it what you expected tho Hammer? especially the bonus points are very unexpected to me. Is this year unusual or not? Dunno. Tell you what tho - anyone who says "my league is better than yours" needs to be refered to this thread 'cos the only thing this really tells me is that nothing we can see objectively makes one league better than the others.

HammerofThunor wrote:Pot Hale, that's the normal rule and applies to all leagues (although the Pro12 have 2 spots normally, just one this year due to a French request).

I wasn't aware that it was the normal rule. I thought the winner of the Challenge Cup did not get a place in the following season's European Cup. And it's not clear to me that this applies across all leagues. I can't find any reference to it on the ERCc website.

One key point to remember is that there are still up to 55 points left to claim for the season. More than the maximum accrued so far.

Another interesting one is a combined table (since everyone has played the same number of games).

48 - Northampton Saints
47 - Bath Rugby
44 - Ospreys
43 - Glasgow Warriors
42 - Munster
41 - Leinster
39 - Saracens
39 - Ulster
36 - Wasps
35 - Exeter Chiefs
35 - Leicester Tigers
34 - Harlequins
34 - Sale Sharks
33 - Connacht
29 - Gloucester Rugby
28 - Edinburgh
28 - Scarlets
22 - Cardiff Blues
21 - Newcastle Falcons
21 - London Irish
17 - Newport-Gwent Dragons
13 - Benetton Treviso
10 - Zebre
1 - London Welsh

TJ wrote:Is it what you expected tho Hammer?  especially the bonus points are very unexpected to me.  Is this year unusual or not?  Dunno.  Tell you what tho - anyone who says "my league is better than yours" needs to be refered to this thread 'cos the only thing this really tells me is that nothing we can see objectively makes one league better than the others.  

Everytime I've looked at it the Premiership has had more tries and closer games than the pro12... So it's no surprise. I haven't looked many time just around 3 season. All I do know is that the last few weeks have seen some absolute cracking games in the premiership.

Pot Hale wrote:

HammerofThunor wrote:Pot Hale, that's the normal rule and applies to all leagues (although the Pro12 have 2 spots normally, just one this year due to a French request).

I wasn't aware that it was the normal rule.  I thought the winner of the Challenge Cup did not get a place in the following season's European Cup.   And it's not clear to me that this applies across all leagues.  I can't find any reference to it on the ERCc website.

It's not an automatic spot, it just enters them into the play-off for the last Champions Cup spot.

Thats quite interesting Hammer. again would tend to led credence to there not really being much between the leagues. Of course its not a real comparison but it is interesting

He's right though. No mention on the website under qualification.

Another comparison of the leagues from a welsh perspective.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-news/gatlands-law-creates-plenty-confusion-8433204

TJ wrote:Now this has really surprised me.  3000 pts scored in the pro 12, 3667 in the AP.  It was always my impression that we got higher scores in the pro 12 and more exciting matches.  Not what those numbers say

I think you will find that is for 2 reasons

1 - The Aviva has the worst team who give away points for fun.
2 - The standard of the 3 premier Irish provinces has slip with the consequence they are not beating lesser teams like they did in previous seasons.

Did a count on last season and there was only 8 points between the leagues - effectively a dead heat.

It's really difficult to do comparisons as your view will often depend on whether you have a vested interest or you follow certain sides. What I will say it the AP has been brilliant this year. The best in a while.

Not seen enough of the Pro 12 to comment. I'll occasionally watch the odd game involving a Welsh or Irish side.

I would say that Treviso + Zebre at least cancels out the LW factor.

Overall I would say the Aviva has been of a better overall standard because the Pro12 needed the Welsh sides (other than Ospreys) to improve to bring the standard up - they haven't.
Instead the 3 senior Irish sides have slipped in standard.

However for me the Italian sides are both better than London Welsh to a reasonable degree - Welsh really are very very poor.
The Italians have it in them to win the odd game against a decent side - dont think Welsh have

Been impressed with what I've seen in the AP this year. Definitely the top 4/5 teams have impressive squads and the power and athleticism in the Aviva is a step above the Pro12. Bigger packs and more powerful ball carriers.

That said I think there is a bit more attacking intent in the Pro12 - more competition at the break down and a better awareness of space than some of the AP teams who seem to be intent on running over the top of each other.

Necessity is the mother of invention I suppose and there isn't the same volume of power players in the celtic/Italian teams. Less pressure in terms of relegation helps too, as does squad rotation keeping players fresh.

I'd say the AP is probably more competitive from the top 7/8 upwards, where the pro12 really drops off beyond the top 5/6.

Both are more competitive this year with the Ospreys improving and a bit more money floating around the AP which is shaking up the top 4.

Both are infinitely better than the Top 14 , which is unwatchable at times.

rodders wrote:
Both are infinitely better than the Top 14 , which is unwatchable at times.

thanks Rodders.
I was waiting for the inevitable cheap dig to the T14 (who luckily isnt the subject of this thread) coming from a Pro12 afficionado.

anyway, for those who just watch one or two game a year or are stuck in the past , T14 at least is improving its "entertainment value", current season has an average 4 tries per game which is (if I remember an old thread correctly) in line with AP and P12 figures and significantly better than the 3.2 from last season. Let's not get carried away it is not and will never be the total rugby played by SXV franchises for many reasons (from forward handling skill to poor refereering , bad weather and of course culture). Still not all games are a war of attrition played at snail pace and reffed by a guy whose salary is indexed on the number of penalties he awards ...

If you like slo-mo rugby T14 is probably your thing.

Every time I watch the Aviva Prem I think it's a step up from the bilge that is the Pro 12. It's probably 2 steps up. It's faster, more intense, more entertaining, technically better, the squad depth is better, there are more teams playing at a higher level, the referees are better (just), the crowds are generally bigger.

Everything. Is. Better.

Best league in the world.

whocares wrote:

rodders wrote:
Both are infinitely better than the Top 14 , which is unwatchable at times.

thanks Rodders.
I was waiting for the inevitable cheap dig to the T14 (who luckily isnt the subject of this thread) coming from a Pro12 afficionado.

I think the issue with the Top14 is that on paper it should be the best league in the world - it has the best players, the strongest teams, great weather, passionate crowds... but it isn't.

It's just a scrum/Bosh fest at times and the biggest killer is the away performances of so many teams, which makes too any results predictable.

Sorry.

+1 to what Rodders said - of the 3 leagues the T14 is the least entertaining which given the standard of players is a big let down

I'm going to defend whocares and the Top 14 a little here. To me there's no doubt that this year's Top 14 has been a lot better in terms of entertainment than previous years. While there were valid criticisms of it up to last year - fairly stodgy, forward dominated, scrums lasting forever, kick-fests, etc. - this year has seen more than a few teams switch to a much more open style.

Clermont and Montpellier as usual of course, but Stade Français and Bordeaux are playing some lovely stuff this year, as are Grenoble, while Toulouse seem to be trying to get their spark back.

The refereeing has been more sympathetic to the attacking side, which undoubtedly helps, but I think in general there's also been a switch in mentality.

Having said that, I'm still amazed by how few away wins there tends to be...

Certaintly give you Bordeaux they have indeed been a breath of fresh air

Well thanks chaps for joining this debate. Its only a bit of fun really but it has also been educational for me. Certainly the perceived wisdom about both leagues is shown to be false and the respective strength of the leagues is pretty even.

Interesting stuff indeed - and not at all what I thought I would find.

TJ wrote:

lostinwales wrote:I would expect that Bath will hammer Glasgow in the return fixture, but then Glasgow were in terrific form at the start of the season, while Bath were not. That situation seems to have reversed somewhat and you have to factor in home advantage. The aggregate scores will be interesting

No way Jose.  Glasgow will beat bath and beat them well.  Bath will have been cuffed by Toulouse in france by then and will be out of the cup and will have nothing to play for in that last game.  Whereas Glasgow have Montpellier at home and will take 5 pts.  

Bath - Glasgow should be interesting. Bath seem to have pulled it out of the fire, but will they let it slip now?

I haven't seen an Pro12, but I can say the AP has been excellent this season. For instance, Newcastle have gone from being a complete waste of space to playing some fantastic stuff, and in general there have been lots of high scoring, close games. I'd say there is a pretty good balance between forward and back play too. It's a shame about LW, but Bristol or Worcester will both be a big step up in quality next season.

It looks like the crowds are growing too, although I haven't checked the stats.

To be fair to TJ (not sure why!) he did try and apologise for being a bit of a d!ck about Bath (and being utterly wrong, again) in a different thread.

Cyril wrote:To be fair to TJ (not sure why!) he did try and apologise for being a bit of a d!ck about Bath (and being utterly wrong, again) in a different thread.

Fair enough. Bath will still be kicking themselves if they mess it up now though.

I did offer to eat some humble pie. Ta Cyril