OWGR March 2015 How do Sagarin Rankings Compare

Wow...Two weeks in a row, two players ranked #297 win on the PGATour.  Congratz to Paddy.  I got him at #82 in the Rankings.  

Paul Casey up to 45th in the Rankings and an invite to Cadillac this week.  James Hahn also backdoors an invite to Cadillac if he wants to leave his very pregnant wife.  No invite for Paddy though 

I haven't got the projections for #297 calculated. Sorry.  You will have to wait for the OWGR.

But I do have the top 100.  The number in parenthesis is the Sagarin Golfweek ranking for comparison.

 

1	Rory McIlroy (1)		11.266	*
2	Bubba Watson (12)		7.208	*
3	Henrik Stenson (7)		7.046	*
4	Jason Day (4)		6.755	*
5	Adam Scott (3)		6.650	*
6	Jim Furyk (2)		6.010	*
7	Sergio Garcia (6)		6.000	*
8	Justin Rose (8)		5.753	*
9	Jordan Spieth (9)		5.573	*
10	Martin Kaymer (53)		4.869	*
11	Rickie Fowler (18)		4.809	*
12	Matt Kuchar (5)		4.786	*
13	Jimmy Walker (14)		4.767	*
14	Hideki Matsuyama (22)		4.366	*
15	Patrick Reed (66)		4.193	*
16	Dustin Johnson (15)		4.165	*
17	Victor Dubuisson (64)		3.847	*
18	Billy Horschel (70)		3.824	*
19	Brooks Koepka (32)		3.732	*
20	Phil Mickelson (28)		3.662	*
21	Graeme McDowell (13)		3.564	*
22	Chris Kirk (21)		3.421	*
23	Jamie Donaldson (24)		3.382	*
24	Zach Johnson (15)		3.381	*
25	Bill Haas (11)		3.219	*
26	Hunter Mahan (55)		3.187	*
27	Lee Westwood (42)		3.133	*
28	Ian Poulter (47)		3.118	*
29	Ryan Palmer (17)		3.109	*
30	Kevin Na (30)		3.088	*
31	Charl Schwartzel (58)		2.995	*
32	Keegan Bradley (19)		2.949	*
33	Stephen Gallacher (98)		2.946	*
34	Joost Luiten (43)		2.909	*
35	Anirban Lahiri (74)		2.888
36	Ryan Moore (26)		2.886	*
37	Brandt Snedeker (23)		2.867	*
38	Thongchai Jaidee (36)		2.765	*
39	Bernd Wiesberger (68)		2.732
40	Branden Grace (130)		2.703
41	J.B. Holmes (57)		2.586	*
42	Shane Lowry (65)		2.536	*
43	Louis Oosthuizen (60)		2.526	*
44	Luke Donald (67)		2.516	*
45	Paul Casey (29)		2.478
46	Jason Dufner (87)		2.477	*
47	Gary Woodland (20)		2.456	*
48	Webb Simpson (76)		2.443	*
49	Danny Willett (16)		2.443	*
50	Thomas Bjorn (106)		2.428	*
51	Brendon Todd (41)		2.396	*
52	Miguel A Jimenez (157)		2.356	*
53	Marc Leishman (33)		2.348	*
54	Marc Warren (50)		2.337
55	Alexander Levy (51)		2.287
56	Russell Henley (85)		2.262	*
57	Harris English (86)		2.258
58	Andy Sullivan (163)		2.249
59	Tim Clark (192)		2.220	*
60	Mikko Ilonen (154)		2.220	*
61	Tommy Fleetwood (174)		2.212
62	John Senden (39)		2.211	*
63	Graham Delaet (34)		2.187
64	Francesco Molinari (25)		2.148
65	Marcel Siem (73)		2.125
66	Steve Stricker (10)		2.100	*
67	Kevin Streelman (149)		2.042	*
68	Charley Hoffman (49)		2.006	*
69	Ross Fisher (146)		2.005
70	Koumei Oda (104)		2.005
71	Ben Martin (147)		1.955	*
72	Jonas Blixt (269)		1.945	*
73	Daniel Berger (111)		1.908
74	Nick Watney (103)		1.885
75	Tiger Woods (~480)		1.865	*
76	Matt Jones (124)		1.841
77	Russell Knox (56)		1.821
78	Hiroshi Iwata (116)		1.814
79	Pablo Larrazabal (161)		1.773
80	Ernie Els (95)		1.766	*
81	Sangmoon Bae (123)		1.755	*
82	Padraig Harrington (336)		1.750	*
83	Robert Streb (45)		1.732	*
84	Brian Harman (77)		1.717	*
85	Kevin Stadler (83)		1.696	*
86	George Coetzee (236)		1.675
87	Brendon de Jonge (59)		1.662
88	Angel Cabrera (113)		1.642	*
89	Justin Thomas (37)		1.637
90	Gary Stal (112)		1.634
91	James Hahn (162)		1.627	*
92	Matt Every (202)		1.606
93	Scott Stallings (284)		1.582
94	Shingo Katayama (152)		1.581
95	Scott Hend (366)		1.569
96	Thorbjorn Olesen (255)		1.559
97	Brendan Steele   (48)		1.535
98	Cameron Tringale (54)		1.526
99	Scott Piercy (100)		1.488
100	Shawn Stefani (44)		1.486
101	Steven Bowditch (256)		1.478
102	Seungyul Noh (84)		1.456
103	Geoff Ogilvy (206)		1.444	*
104	Tomohiro Kondo (132)		1.443

Players with an asterisk (*) players have already secured an invite to the Masters.

PS: Nothing to do with the rankings, but that blow-up breaks Reed's string of par-and-under scores at about 21. Sagarin surprisingly not impressed with that consistency . . . . . .

Thanks GPB

Yes, Patrick Reed is not very consistent and his Sag Rating shows that.

BTW.  The Sagarin Rankings are through Northern Trust.  Not Honda.

There is no way I can project Sagarin Rankings like I can the  OWGR rankings.  Sagarin puts all kinds of secret ingredients & voodoo into his formulas.

Here are players ranked outside the OWGR 100 (as of last week) who are ranked inside the top 100 by Sagarin.

IMO, these are the type of players that are under-valued by OWGR and therefore good value in some fantasy games like Draftkings and Golf Channel Fantasy.

Sagarin Ranking in Parenthesis 

118 Jerry Kelly  (35)

187 Retief Goosen  (38)

153 Daniel Summerhays  (40)

105 Brendan Steele  (48)

220 Stewart Cink  (52)

158 Charles Howell  (61)

144 Tony Finau  (62)

155 David Hearn  (63)

104 Hideto Tanihara  (69)

121 Kevin Chappell  (71)

178 Blayne Barber  (72)

182 Andrew Svoboda  (75)

132 Chris Stroud  (78)

199 Carl Pettersson  (79)

200 Derek Fathauer  (80)

189 David Toms  (81)

133 Edoardo Molinari  (82)

131 K.J. Choi  (88)

128 George McNeill  (89)

309 Michael Putnam  (90)

102 Hennie Otto  (91)

224 Vaughn Taylor  (92)

204 Scott Langley  (93)

233 Vijay Singh  (94)

258 Fabian Gomez  (96)

223 Bud Cauley  (97)

No, but even Sagarin must acknowledge that a par or sub-par streak in the 20's is pretty sporty - and consistent. I agree it's all about the finishes though.

kwinigolfer wrote:No, but even Sagarin must acknowledge that a par or sub-par streak in the 20's is pretty sporty - and consistent. I agree it's all about the finishes though.

Sagarin is a 52 week ranking period, and treats every week the same.  No emphasis on the recent weeks.

So all of Reeds T50 finishes from last summer are counting.

Any ranking system that put Jim Furyk at number 2 is just wrong!

MacDowell is 13th over a system that's basically a straight average of the last 52 weeks, really??

Sagarin values consistency and Furyk has not missed a cut in the last 52 weeks.

The difference between 1st and 2nd in the Sagarin system is the same as the difference between 50th and 51st.

This is my best guess on how Sagarin distributes points vs what is known about OWGR. 

This is a hypothetical major with 156 players and 64 players making the cut.

OWGR gives 100 pts for 1st, 60 for 2nd, 40 for third....to 1.5 points for 64th.  Its a total of 587 points.

Force fitting a linear curve for Sagarin, I get 7.44 pts for 1st, 7.39 pts for 2nd, 7.34 pts for 3rd....all the way to .048 pts for 155th and 0 points for 156th,

Each line gives out 587 points.  

Spoiler:

76 big points awaiting the Cadillac winner.  Rory is safe at #1 but any one of 6 players can take the #2 spot from Bubba with a win.  (Henrik, J-Day, Adam, Sergio, Furyk, and Rose).  Spieth can get to #3 with a win.

Anyone ranked #22 or better can get to the top 10, and so can #30 Kevin Na (lower divisor).

Top 5 can get to the Top 8 at best with a win.

Puerto Rico will be a subsidized 24 and African Open will be a subsidized 19.

Trevor Fisher Jnr should get to about ~150th for his African Open Week

Holmes can move as high as 14th should he win.

So DJ already in the top 10 after his "break" from the game.

http://www.owgr.com/ranking

Tiger and Paddy at 79 and 80. I thought they might end up pretty close in the rankings, but somewhere well outside the top 200.

Very disappointing week for #297 . . . . . . . .

54 owgr points to this week's Valspar winner - probably the second strongest field they've attracted. Great golfcourse and a welcome relief after PGA Nat and Doral.

kwinigolfer wrote:Very disappointing week for #297 . . . . . . . .

What happened to Paul Lawrie?

Nothing that I know of.

kwini

You said

Very disappointing week for #297 . . . . . . . .

That is paul lawrie.

The person ranked 297 has won the last 2 tournaments before Doral mac

And Steven Webster didn't last week . . . . .

kwinigolfer wrote:54 owgr points to this week's Valspar winner - probably the second strongest field they've attracted. Great golfcourse and a welcome relief after PGA Nat and Doral.

The Tampa Tournament has always attracted a 50+ field in this decade.  

In fact, it was OWGR 58 in 2012 when LUUUKE won.  and also OWGR-58 in 2010 when Furyk won..

Is Levy playing before the top 50 cut off point?

Levy definitely committed for Bay Hill.

Some Projections:  Should they win

Ryan Moore  to #16
Spieth to #6
Ernst inside the top 200
O'Hair to about 110th
Stenson to #2 with a win (or solo 2nd)
Kuchar to 9th or 10th (depending on how Spieth finishes)
Top Five to 11th

=================

Edit:

Woods is falling to at least 85th, most likely 87th

To pass Woods:

de Jonge need to finish 48th or better
G. Coetzee nees to finish 21st

and Justin Thomas will pass him with a top 20 finish.


Incidentally, Harrington is passing Woods this week.  I think this is first time since 1996 that Harrington will be ranked higher than Woods.

Where does Coetzee go with a win?

Coetzee,
Subject to the "Valspar" but would think about 70th, perhaps a shade higher.
GPB will doubtless offer more precise permutations . . . .

Coetzee, winner Tshwane Open, moves to 68th at best, pending results from Valspar. 

Previously unranked Jordan Zunic from Australia moves to about 420th by winning the New Zealand Open on the Australian Tour.

Harry English just finished with a 65 and is currently T10.

Which is not quite enough for him to reach the top 50, he needs at least a solo 5th to have a chance.  But he probably only needs a top 10 finish at Bay Hill or Valero to crack the top 50 and get a Masters invite.

Peter Malnati wins the Web-com event.  Should move into top 300.

Spieth up to #6 in the Rankings

Top 5 moves to #15.  (from #16)

English moves to #52, but still about 8 gross points from the Top 50.  He still has some work to do at Bay Hill & Valero.

62 points for this week's winner.
The Madeira event way over-subsidised - should be 14 pts, equivalent to the web.commer (whose best player is ironically an E.T. member supporting his local tournament).

Technically the Madeira would be OWGR 6, if it weren't subsidized, as would be the Web-com event in Chile.  

(BTW, would it be so tough to mention Felipe Aguilar is playing the Web-com tournament?  I had to go look it myself because you piqued my curiosity.)

This is the problem with the OWGR rating system.  It only measures top 200 players.  If there were no subsidies, there would be no way Challenge Tour and Web-com would ever earn rankings points.

There are 100+ players playing both the Madeira Islands and Chile tournaments.  They add as much to the SoF as GPB would theoretically add.  And GPB doesn't play anymore.

GPB

Do you know why only the top 200 players are measured for SOF calculations?

I do not know why.  

Its is something that I would like to see addressed.

Coetzee is leading the event on the Sunshine Tour, would his ranking get much higher with a win?

Just had a look at VC606 and 54th would be the highest.

Yep, the best Coetzee can be is 54th should he win the Investec Cup.  About 10 OWGR points from being in the top 50.

Henrik needs a solo third or 4 way tie 2nd or better to pass Bubba and get to number 2.

Adam and Jason need to win to get to #2.

Morgan Hoffmann can get to #52 (He already has secured a Masters Invite) should he win.

Every would get #40.

Paul Casey position is very tenuous not only right on the cut bubble but as  the leaderboard stands at the moment, English, Woodland, and Willett are going to pass him.

That would knock him down to #49.  If he wants to play Augusta, he better be signing for San Antonio if he hasn't already.  He is not listed in the Valero website as playing.

Coetzee should have carried a 3 or 4 shot lead going into Sunday, but a bogey at the last gives King Charl a chance, just 3 strokes behind in 3rd. And he could use a win going into Augusta.

Assuming Stenson wins tomorrow and Rory treads water in the standings, Stenson will be about 2.5 points behind Rory which is about 130 gross points.

I heard Stenson has committed to play Houston, so he would need a 1st or 2nd to have a chance at getting #1 at the Masters.

Coetzee finished T3 on Sunshine Tour which didn't impact his ranking too much. Moved up one spot at best, depending on Bay Hill results.

He is playing Morocco next week, and needs to win to get inside the top 50.

Levy (Solo third), Sullivan (T2), Fleetwood (Win), Siem (Win), R. Fisher also have a chance to crack the top 50 in Morocco. Assuming a 24 rating.

That's a good win by Jaco Ahlers; wonder where he'll play the rest of the year - he's up to about 150th.

Big day coming up for the English - unfortunately the Harris version.

Ahlers gets to about ~#130 in the rankings.

Tournament canceled in Madeira.  Too bad for the players and tournament organizers.

Last year, Madeira was reduced to 36 holes, but it was played in May.

OWGR - 52 for VTO, Subsidized 24 for Morocco.

Spieth and DJ gets to #4 should they win.  Spieth gets to #4 should he finish in the top 3 and ahead of Johnson.

Kuchar, Walker, Kaymer get to top 10 if they win.

Does 9C exit the top 100 this week?

super_realist wrote:Does 9C exit the top 100 this week?

Why - are you going to throw a party? You should invite him. And some cocktail waitresses.

He'll get awarded an extra jubilee chin --> 10C (?)

Yes, Tiger Woods falls out of the Top 100 this week.  Guaranteed according to Prince Dracula.

There are some competitors in Morocco who have a chance of reaching the owgr Top 50.

I saw Ross Fisher on that list, but that must have been highly dependent upon the fortunes of others.
Even more so after a Round 1 of 77. Ain't gonna happen Ross.

Yes, if Fisher wins, he could get into Top 50, but he would be somewhat vulnerable to others passing him. 

At +5 after round 1, there is not much chance of him winning.

Let's put Alex Levy and Andy Sullivan's Masters debuts back a year - only a miracle, or San Antonio winds in Morocco, can save them for this year. Sullivan needs a decent result soon to stay in the top 65 for the MatchPlay.

Andy and Alex missing the cut increases Paul Casey's chances of staying in the top 50.

Coetzee off to a bad start in Morocco.

Dufner and Woodland off to bad starts in Texas also helping Casey's chances.

At the start of the week, I thought Casey had a 25-33% chance to stay in the top 50.  Now I think his chance is better than 50%

Here is what various players need to finish to pass Casey and 3 of them have to do it.

Texas:

Todd - 26th
Warren - 23rd
Dufner - 17th
English - 8th
Jones - 5th
Senden - 4th
Molinari - 4th
Delaet - 3rd
Berger -4th
Hoffman - 2nd
Knox - 2nd

Anyone down to #111 Freddie Jacobson Winning.

Morocco:

Coetzee, Fleetwood, Siem, Fisher - Win  (now that Levy and Sullivan have missed the cut)