Can Tiger win? (and do you think he will)

Several weeks ago I would have laughed at anyone who thought Tiger could win this years masters. However as it draws nearer my opinion has changed quite a bit.

First of all, do I think Tiger WILL win? -

Probably not. there are 2 main reasons for this.
1.) Purely based on the strength of the top 15 or so players in the field, I would fancy the winning score to be somewhere around 15 under, there are too many guys playing too well for us not to see people put together a few back to back rounds in the 60s. Also if the weather reports are true then it will be a much softer course.
I don't see Tiger being able to put together that kind of number, If -8 is a winning number then I expect him to go close though.
2.) His wildness off the tee. Augusta may not be the most punishing course if you stray offline but we all know that with those greens its very hard to get it close if you aren't playing from the fairway.
Yes he has had problems with chipping of late but rumour is those are gone now. What I remember of Tiger from the last few years is missing the fairway 50yards left or right regularly. I don't see that will have turned around a couple of years of bad driving in 3 weeks on the driving range, and if scoring is to be as low as it seems it might then fairways are where the ball needs to be (no s**t Sherlock I hear you say!)

All that said though........... against my better judgement and logic, I have a feeling (based on little more than a hunch) that Tiger is going to start putting together a score this week.
Perhaps its the old romantic in me, TW has for years been my favourite player to watch and perhaps im longing for that old fairy-tale story of the fallen hero (some may say villain) coming back from the dead to win a 5th green jacket.

Or maybe its the fact that iv had a sly tenner on him at 50/1    

Either way - whats your thoughts, can he win? and does anyone want to stick their neck out and say they think he will!?

I don't think -15 will win.

The winnin scores since 200 are as follows;

-8
-9
-10
-14
-16
-12
-8
+1
-7
-12
-9
-7
-12
-16
-10

So only twice since 2000 has the winner finished at -15 or better. With the average winning score being -10.

But to answer your questions, no tiger can't win and don't think he will win regardless of the winning score.

longgame,
The only plus I can think of is that he seems to be enjoying himself - whether that's because he thinks he can compete or he's now reconciled to being an also-ran, who knows?

But, to answer your questions, I'd say:
1).No.
2).No.

Could Ben Curtis win the Open? Or Micheel the PGA?
So yes, Tiger can win the Masters.
Will he? It's probable but unlikely. He's not in form and should be rusty. Past accomplishments don't do it.
And of lately only very few majors have been won by low-ranked players. This year I can't see anybody outside the owgr top 40 take the green jacket.

perhaps I should have been clearer when I said "somewhere around 15 under"
I think it will be double digits.. 15 being the top end of that. 50% of the time it has been -10 or better based on the stats and I think it will likely be one of those years.

Can he? He knows the place, seems to do alright there, knows he can play it well. Yes he can.

Will he? Form and recent fitness say no way Jose.

I'd actually like him to, but my head says he'd be not much more than a punt at 50/1 to win, even in a field that isn't that big! To come back from no top level golf to the pinnacle of the game first time out, nigh on impossible. Like that chip on 16 against DiMarco...

I don't get how anybody can say with certainty that he can't win there. Can anybody tell me how often he has played the tournament and finished outside the Top 10?

Not sure if it has happened but it will not have been often. If you can consitently finish in the Top 10 somewhere you have as good a chance as any. Even though I aggree his form has been dismal there are a few courses out there I wouldn't bet against him being in with a shot.

AlciG wrote:I don't get how anybody can say with certainty that he can't win there. Can anybody tell me how often he has played the tournament and finished outside the Top 10?

Not sure if it has happened but it will not have been often. If you can consitently finish in the Top 10 somewhere you have as good a chance as any. Even though I aggree his form has been dismal there are a few courses out there I wouldn't bet against him being in with a shot.

Exactly, totally agree with this, his record below proves he contends here more often than not, that missed cut was as an AM as well
T41 CUT 1 T8 T18 5 1 1 T15 T22 1 T3 T2 2 T6 T4 T4 T40 T4 DNP

You should never ever write off a champion and someone who was at the highest level a golfer has ever been at! Forget Nicklaus, imo Woods is the greatest of all time.

Sadly I would say no chance.
Loved his impact on the game but no escape from physical issues and that also affects the rest.
Id hope to see him have a respectable week and at least make the cut.

If he makes the cut I will be surprised!

mystiroakey wrote:If he makes the cut I will be surprised!

McGinley was on the telly yesterday and said Woods has only completed one 72 hole competition in the last year- not ideal preparation.

His autograph-signing hand took a lot of punishment yesterday

mysti

Where have you been? I missed you.

Awww bless.

Due to my own personal annoyance of not being able to play much golf over the last year I have been venturing away from golfing topics and aided by Palace's amazing climb up the footballing ladder I have turned into a bit of a footballing nut which is where I have been posting.

But as the season unofficially starts today with the Masters I had to come back to educate and annoy

mysti

I have been there, not being able to play golf that is. Not getting excited about palace.

You  may not be bothered about the mighty Eagles but I can see how excited you seem to be getting over Man u's top 4 position.

How the mighty has fallen. Your team has turned into Arsenal.. Patting yourselves on the back with a top 4 finish

Zaha will score a hat trick against you to rub it in when we meet up next.

But I suppose we better get back on topic.

2 days ago Tiger was 55/1 on the exchanges, there was a few thousand pounds to take at prices over 50/1. You can now lay him at 36/1. A 50% return could have been made without him even hitting a golf ball in the tourney!

not one for gloating.... but the winning score was -18 I believe

Woods never really contended but the Friday Saturday rounds were very solid and perhaps could have been better...

Based on the promise showed and it being his first tourney back after playing like a total hacker, im going to stick my neck out and say he has another major in him.

Rory has to be favourite for The Open especially with TOC being a real bombers course but I think if Tiger can get a few solid 72 holes completed before then he could be right up there on the sunday.... always played well at TOC (if I remember 2010 was top 20 even after another of his sabbaticals?)

Speith could be a real force based on that performance though

Tiger surprised me as well. If he can get his driver sorted out he's right up there. In fact he didn't play particularly well at all but still managed a good score (which is what matters I guess).

As long as Woods can't hit a driver for toffee (that hack off 13 on Saturday was hysterical), there's no way he'll be winning any Majors soon. The Masters has the least trouble off the tee and, although it was a respectable finish, he was never remotely challenging at any point.

Tiger surprised me, I didn't think he would make the cut. It is amazing to think he managed to carry on after his joint popped out on the 9th and he put it back in.... Aye ok tiger

He's never really been a reknowned fairway hitter off the tee tho Navy, even in his prime. His short game magic and his ability to putt everything' inside 6 feet was what made him. His short game issues would appear to be sorted, time after time he hit some superb chips but...and this is where I think he's lost it and will never get it back to where it was, is his putting. A few years ago anything under 6 foot, 10 foot even, was basically a gimme, now it's not nor is it anywhere near. I was sceptical when he said he'd worked his butt off, clearly with chipping he has. If he's ever to get back close to where he was tho he needs to get back to being almost infallible with the short stick from 10 feet and under.

Woods didn't hit a fairway Sunday until his drive on #13; he might get away with that at St.Andrews but nowhere else.
Says he won't be playing for a while, not clear why not.

JAS wrote:He's never really been a reknowned fairway hitter off the tee tho Navy, even in his prime. His short game magic and his ability to putt everything' inside  6 feet  was what made him. His short game issues would appear to be sorted, time after time he hit some superb chips but...and this is where I think he's lost it and will never get it back to where it was, is his putting. A few years ago anything under 6 foot, 10 foot even, was basically a gimme, now it's not nor is it anywhere near. I was sceptical when he said he'd worked his butt off, clearly with chipping he has. If he's ever to get back close to where he was tho he needs to get back to being almost infallible with the short stick from 10 feet and under.

Never renowned for accuracy, sure, but he was nowhere near as rubbish as he is now - looks like he's chopping wood more often than not and he's ridiculous trying to hit the skin off it on the course, when on the practice ground he's hitting within himself and looks a lot better. I don't get why he doesn't hit a tour 3-wood (13°) or something similar if he can't hit a driver. Ego? Probably. Alternatively, get out his old Titleist 975d w/ the X100 shaft and make sure he's on the short grass.
Basically, he's past it - by which I mean he won't ever get near the 2000/2005 versions of himself again. He may well challenge for a Major again as he's clearly been good enough, can still play and has a wealth of experience.
Some interesting comment from Alliss and Azinger over the weekend about Woods' golfing 'brain' - they aren't sure he has one. I don't think they feel has has the necessary to sort out swing issues etc himself and therefore when he's on the course and something goes wrong, he either can't or won't make the necessary corrections to get it round without too much damage. Fine when things are working, not so otherwise.

I think (and I guess you knowledgeable types could put me straight if I'm wrong) that his putting went markedly off when he ditched the Scotty Cameron flatty. All the stats in the world about loft, launch, spin etc being better off his Nike(s) don't ever seem to have matched his ball in hole performance before the switch. Even after the more recent Stricker "lesson" when he had a marked uptick, I don't think he got back anywhere near where he was.

I do agree Navy that he'll never get back to where he was but I think the drop off in his putting ability to be the more significant factor than his crooked driving. Crooked driving he may be able to fix with a bit of swing work & confidence building but putting wise I just think his head's not what it used to be.
I do think ego did play a part in his crookedness yesterday (ie trying to knock the skin off it to keep up with Rory - fools game really).
Of course apart from his driving and putting woes he also now has to contend with an emerging generation of guys like Rory & Spieth. I'm not saying he won't win again but I think it's much less likely now.

JAS wrote:...I do think ego did play a part in his crookedness yesterday (ie trying to knock the skin off it to keep up with Rory - fools game really).

... I'm not saying he won't win again but I think it's much less likely now.

Yep - I agree with these two things - he seemed to lash at it yesterday.  Probably Rory's combined first two drives being 709 yards got him trying too hard (even professionals get caught up in it).  I also wouldn't be all that surprised to see him win the odd tournament when the field, form (of the others), conditions and his frail body are in sync.

All of the commentators noted that when Woods eases up on the driver a touch he's actually fairly decent and still long off the tee. I've no idea why he has to smack it as hard as he possibly can?!

MustPuttBetter wrote:All of the commentators noted that when Woods eases up on the driver a touch he's actually fairly decent and still long off the tee. I've no idea why he has to smack it as hard as he possibly can?!

he thinks of Elin.

pedro wrote:

MustPuttBetter wrote:All of the commentators noted that when Woods eases up on the driver a touch he's actually fairly decent and still long off the tee. I've no idea why he has to smack it as hard as he possibly can?!

he thinks of Elin.

Good point. Probably why he ducks his head so much as well then.

Natural speed/rhythm isnt the easiest thing to alter.

Its quite easy to put a nice easy swing on the club and pull it straight left(well for me anyway)

What Woods needs to do is leave the driver in the boot of his yanky wagon.

I tend to find that rhythm comes from keeping tension out of your arms and hands. If you drop your arms into place from the top in a relaxed fashion the lag created from your hinge just naturally remains. I am always confused when people talk about keeping and releasing wrist hinge in such contrived terms.

Staying relaxed and in control is of course easier with a slower swing.

its easier to stay relaxed and in control with your natural rhythm .

I am not sure players of a certain ability should even think about release, they should just hit the range, make sure there set up is 100% and practise without over thinking.

But when we get to a much higher level if you do slow your swing down certain parts of your swing mechanics have to work at the same speed. Especially under pressure this isn't the easiet thing to do. It's mich easier to take one less club and crush the ball

Tiger showed very encouraging signs last week. If he's going to win another Major I feel it has to be the Masters. He's more suited to it than the other Majors.

I think Tiger is a classic example of paralysis through analysis- his references to 'glute activation', and 'release patterns' are either him on a big wind-up or full-blown PTA.

Parent-Teachers Association?

He posted a good score without playing particularly well. That's a good sign.

mystiroakey wrote:Natural speed/rhythm isnt the easiest thing to alter.

Its quite easy to put a nice easy swing on the club and pull it straight left(well for me anyway)

What Woods needs to do is leave the driver in the boot of his yanky wagon.

Agree but I think he could still maintain his tempo without needing the lunging balance losing whack at the thing. As Alliss pointed out, Tiger will stand on the warm up range and hit driver after driver with lovely rhythm and balance. Then gets on the first tee and tries to smack the cover of it, falls over and ends up on the 9th fairway. Madness

navyblueshorts wrote:Parent-Teachers Association?

Paralysis Through Analysis

Did any of you who watched the BBC 's superior coverage enjoy the little back-and-forth's between Alliss and Azinger? Alliss thinks Tiger has too many people in his ear, he's an expert at the game of golf but he doesn't know how to "play" i.e. he is trying to take instruction from others rather than play in his own style. Seemed quite insightful.

incontinentia wrote:

navyblueshorts wrote:Parent-Teachers Association?

Paralysis Through Analysis

Did any of you who watched the BBC 's superior coverage enjoy the little back-and-forth's between Alliss and Azinger? Alliss thinks Tiger has too many people in his ear, he's an expert at the game of golf but he doesn't know how to "play" i.e. he is trying to take instruction from others rather than play in his own style. Seemed quite insightful.

Ta.

Yeah, Azinger didn't disagree with him either. Seems hard to countenance but maybe Woods doesn't actually know, himself, enough to get it round when his swing's wobbly, as it is these days. Was also interesting to hear Zinger's comment re. the recent chipping issues and the fact Woods was either getting bad info (which he didn't realise was bad) or couldn't work out what the issue was himself. Who knows?!

I would imagine part of the danger of choosing to 'revamp', 'improve', 'redesign' your swing every two and a half minutes as Tiger has, is that you never really get to know your own swing - because you don't have one!
Most people get to know their own swing and can to some extent identify what's going wrong here and there and often little adjustments can be made to fix little things (obviously I'm not talking about big changes to your swing during a round).
But it does seem like Tiger cannot really do that as he just doesn't know his current swing

I find these golfer who look re overhaul their swing when at the top of the game very strange indeed

I think he knows his swing, or what he wants/he's decided it should be and I think on the range when that's what the only focus is, he does it. Unfortunately when faced with a shot under pressure that needs to (say) draw 35 yards round a tree and land 183 yards forward his sub-conscious "knows" how he used to do that shot successfully and so a hybrid old and new swing occurs. A contributory factor may well be the number of swing iterations he has had, many successful and many locked in the mind/body combination somewhere.

Way, way different league, but I know something similar happens to me and it's often only afterwards (when it's gone wrong) I know what I did. My "changes" have only ever been limited to trying to stop the "loop" over the top at transition (which takes me out to in at impact) and straighten the spine angle so I'm not so hunched over the ball.

That kinda what I mean Roller
We can all know a different swing when on the range with a coach. I could possibly even get the club in the same positions as Rory when I've got someone standing there showing and filming me.
But when you get out on the course on your own and you're a few holes in you either know exactly how your swing works or you don't. Most people after a good few years of playing get to know the nuances of their swing. I don't see how Tiger can

MustPuttBetter wrote:

mystiroakey wrote:Natural speed/rhythm isnt the easiest thing to alter.

Its quite easy to put a nice easy swing on the club and pull it straight left(well for me anyway)

What Woods needs to do is leave the driver in the boot of his yanky wagon.

Agree but I think he could still maintain his tempo without needing the lunging balance losing whack at the thing. As Alliss pointed out, Tiger will stand on the warm up range and hit driver after driver with lovely rhythm and balance. Then gets on the first tee and tries to smack the cover of it, falls over and ends up on the 9th fairway. Madness

Its just purely pressure.

At my best If i hit the ball harder all it does is send it further right , but draws more and under pressure its an ideal shot. If I try/have to hit a straight or a fade shot I have much less chance of pulling the shot off under pressure. So if I use my brain I will use a different club and play the hole in a way that will not give me the best change of making a birdie etc but will give me the best shot of not dropping a shot..
I think tiger is trying to crush a ball with a certain(different) shape every hole- He needs to tone it down and realise he can not play those shots in regularity any more. Due to his amazing par saving abilities and bounce backs he had back in the day the odd errant drive didn't affect him. He is affected with driver temptation and he cannot control the adrenaline of playing competitively at the highest level. But saying all this he used to play the stinger with his 2 iron like no one else could. That was allways his go to shot- I think even he realises he cannot play that shot any more.

We all know how hard it can be to think rationally just in the monthly medal let alone anything more important. I still have temptations of playing shots i used to be able to pull off but the chances these days are more like a 1 in 10 because I dont play enough.

Tiger seems to think playing on his own and practising is going to help him more than going out and playing competitively- we all know this is BS.

He needs to play more. Many golfers have to play a certain way(percentages) because they need to win money to live the way they are accustomed to. Tiger doesn't have that problem- but that problem could be a positive in his case..

All correct Mysti. But my point is why bin the driver or accept he can't play these shots when the alternative is just to ease up on it 5% and his driving is decent.
On days 2 and 3 of the Masters he seemed to be swinging smoother with the driver and he scored well. Days 1 and 4 he was losing balance and battering it and didn't score well.
It seems when under pressure he reverts to wanting the smack the cover off it. Bearing in mind he has all the time in the world to analyse his game I'm amazed he still does it

Pressure does funny things. And that's why I think he just needs to play more .because the more you play competitively the more pressure you are under so the more chance you have of keeping a lid on it when it matters.

I honestly don't think he has the mental ability not to do what he did in rounds 1 and 4 as they were obviously the biggest pressure days of the 4.

I agree he needs to play more. I was amazed when he was interviewed after round 4 and asked when he would play next and he said not for a while. It's like he didn't really want to come back yet but did because it was the Masters and will now go back to what he was doing.

Bearing in mind, like him or not, we're talking about surely one of the best sportsmen of all time. Certainly one of the best pressure performers.
It's amazing he's now at the point where he can't manage much better than most of us when starting out - "I don't know what to do so i'll hit it harder"

One swing change too many for me. It worked for Faldo I guess. Can anyone come up with anyone else who has decided to have a major swing change and it worked out for?
How many swing changes did Nicklaus, Watson, Palmer, Hogan, Player, Norman have? Not many I suspect

It certainly does seem like his swing 'on course' was a lash! However I did notice that Rory was similar - how many irons were long and left on the first couple of days? He seemed to be hitting it too hard - especially after watching him on the range. As soon he was out of contention he started to swing a little easier and made lot better shots. So maybe not just an issue for Tiger?

Odd the way we seem to know better than a man who has won 14 majors and 79 PGA events - you'd have thought it would be the other way around. But opinion seems to be fairly universal - from pundits to keyboard warriors - Tiger doesn't play enough, swings too hard under pressure and has created too many swing thoughts by tinkering too much.

Monty - I'm not saying that Rory wasn't hitting it hard but you never see him lose balance. Unlike Eldrick

Bob - I think you're on the wrong website buddy if you don't think we should be discussing matters involving anyone who should/does know better than us. I assume you only stick to commenting on players whom you have won more tour events than? oh

MustPuttBetter wrote:I agree he needs to play more. I was amazed when he was interviewed after round 4 and asked when he would play next and he said not for a while. It's like he didn't really want to come back yet but did because it was the Masters and will now go back to what he was doing.

Bearing in mind, like him or not, we're talking about surely one of the best sportsmen of all time. Certainly one of the best pressure performers.
It's amazing he's now at the point where he can't manage much better than most of us when starting out - "I don't know what to do so i'll hit it harder"

One swing change too many for me. It worked for Faldo I guess. Can anyone come up with anyone else who has decided to have a major swing change and it worked out for?
How many swing changes did Nicklaus, Watson, Palmer, Hogan, Player, Norman have? Not many I suspect

Harrington before his Major wins, and if P McGinley is to be believed his changes were far more significant than Faldo's

MustPuttBetter wrote:Monty - I'm not saying that Rory wasn't hitting it hard but you never see him lose balance. Unlike Eldrick

No he was balanced but you could see a massive head dip a la tiger and a pretty poor resulting shot.

Inco, I really was meaning players making changes whilst at or near the top of the game. Would you say Harrington was at the top when he made those first changes? He certainly was when he decided to make his next swing overhaul and look what happened to him then........