What if Marquez had never been born?

Despite Manny getting the better of the results, most consider Marquez to be a thorn in Pacquiao’s side. With a decent understanding of their fights we understand that Marquez is possibly the clearest indication of why the upcoming Mayweather fight won’t go Manny’s way. I include myself in this thinking, however as mentioned in a recent 606v2 podcast, could JMM just be Manny’s Kryptonite or bogeyman? Alternatively, is it the counterpunching style of JMM, which most consider to be an inferior version to Mayweather’s own, that Troubles Manny? This is important as the former is just an unlucky circumstance, whereas the latter shows a clear flaw in Pacquiao’s boxing ability.

Let’s assume Marquez was just a bogeyman and so for the sake or argument had never existed, all we know of Manny has come from the same career minus those 4 fights. How would we view Pacquiao’s chances against Mayweather now? Is the blueprint still there? Bradley would be the only blip on Manny’s record in the last 10 years and most would count it as another decent win in reality. With dominant performance after performance against similar opposition, does Manny suddenly look a lot less beatable?

Cheers DuransHorse ( I'm steeling this sign off from Rodders as he's just so polite, even when ranting. Cheers Rodders! ).

Mate most people are already backing Manny to win. On sky bet over 70% are backing Manny to win.

AdamT wrote:Mate most people are already backing Manny to win. On sky bet over 70% are backing Manny to win.

What are the odds? No sense in putting money on... Money if the odds are so short though. I haven't even checked but Floyd will be the bookies favourite surely?

Not sure, you would need to predict a round or something.

Think I did see odds of 22-1 for a draw though.

To answer the original question, I have no doubt many more would back Manny as favourite if Marquez never existed. Loads of casuals still think he will win. In my opinion Floyd will win but who knows. Maybe he isn't as good as he used to be.

Will find out on May 2.

ith a decent understanding of their fights we understand that Marquez is possibly the clearest indication of why the upcoming Mayweather fight won’t go Manny’s way

For me that's the biggest conundrum. Manny himself has admitted Marquez has been the only one to truly figure him out, and even then they had three and a half incredibly close fights. Question mark (more so doubt in Mayweather winning) is what does FMJ bring to the table that Marquez doesn't bring and vice a versa?

Marquez is more prepared to trade, workrate matches Manny whereas Floyd could lose early rounds due to inactivity

Floyd is the more accurate puncher, punch and not get punch is his motto

Marquez is prepared to fight fire with fire if he does get tagged. If Manny finds ways through will Floyd start rolling and blocking rather than try to get back in the round and take the nod from the judges?

Mayweather has a much better lead right hand, key to fighting a lefty

For me the key is the last point, if he starts getting off with his lead right and frustrate Manny who then becomes a bit wild then he's going to get countered to the hilt all night long.

Personally I think Floyd is going to give him absolute fits and I wouldn't be massively surprised if he knocks him out somewhere around the 10th round. Heck, may have a little dabble on that to cover the UD I've already backed.

And if Marquez wasn't born? We wouldn't have had his epic sequence of fights with Manny, his great to watch duels with Casamayor and Diaz (I) etc. And to think he was once a pretty boring counter puncher.

Personally I think Floyd is going to give him absolute fits and I wouldn't be massively surprised if he knocks him out somewhere around the 10th round. Heck, may have a little dabble on that to cover the UD I've already backed.

I agree with the late ko, have said it all along.

Coxy001 wrote:

ith a decent understanding of their fights we understand that Marquez is possibly the clearest indication of why the upcoming Mayweather fight won’t go Manny’s way

For me that's the biggest conundrum. Manny himself has admitted Marquez has been the only one to truly figure him out, and even then they had three and a half incredibly close fights. Question mark (more so doubt in Mayweather winning) is what does FMJ bring to the table that Marquez doesn't bring and vice a versa?

Marquez is more prepared to trade, workrate matches Manny whereas Floyd could lose early rounds due to inactivity

Floyd is the more accurate puncher, punch and not get punch is his motto

Marquez is prepared to fight fire with fire if he does get tagged. If Manny finds ways through will Floyd start rolling and blocking rather than try to get back in the round and take the nod from the judges?

Mayweather has a much better lead right hand, key to fighting a lefty

For me the key is the last point, if he starts getting off with his lead right and frustrate Manny who then becomes a bit wild then he's going to get countered to the hilt all night long.

Personally I think Floyd is going to give him absolute fits and I wouldn't be massively surprised if he knocks him out somewhere around the 10th round. Heck, may have a little dabble on that to cover the UD I've already backed.

And if Marquez wasn't born? We wouldn't have had his epic sequence of fights with Manny, his great to watch duels with Casamayor and Diaz (I) etc. And to think he was once a pretty boring counter puncher.

You make some very valid and good pints there Coxy. My take is that Manny struggles with certain aspects to the general style of JMM but it would be interesting to see if that is not the case. I particularly think the variation in work rate and willingness to "fight" that JMM brings, versus Floyds better lead right will be interesting.

To clarify Coxy, I am not wishing JMM dead!!! Just imagining how we would view his chances had Marquez not exposed what we now see as a weakness for Floyd to capitalise on.

Without Marquez would Roach's training have been different thus we have a different Pacquiao altogether and not necessarily a better one?

I am of a believe that once a chin is smashed, a fighter is never the same again, especially when they are in later years. Ask Roy Jones.

It is not a coincidene that Manny has not fought a bigger opponent since his ko.

I expect to see Floyd sit down on his punches more and try and stop him. Floyd will be dropped at some stage too but in a slug fest, I have no doubt he will stop Manny now since his ko.

Also expect Floyd to work the body more, try and slow Manny down.

In my opinion floyd will fight cautious and cover up the first couple rounds and then when Manny opens up, expect the lead right to smash him.

Really don't see this going 12.

Hammersmith harrier wrote:Without Marquez would Roach's training have been different thus we have a different Pacquiao altogether and not necessarily a better one?

In what way Hammer? Do you mean more aggressive and careless with a "you can just blast 'em out" attitude?

AdamT wrote:I am of a believe that once a chin is smashed, a fighter is never the same again, especially when they are in later years. Ask Roy Jones.

It is not a coincidene that Manny has not fought a bigger opponent since his ko.

I expect to see Floyd sit down on his punches more and try and stop him. Floyd will be dropped at some stage too but in a slug fest, I have no doubt he will stop Manny now since his ko.

Also expect Floyd to work the body more, try and slow Manny down.

In my opinion floyd will fight cautious and cover up the first couple rounds and then when Manny opens up, expect the lead right to smash him.

Really don't see this going 12.

All the stuff I have seen online suggest this will be Floyd going for the KO and working the body too. I just don't see it as a Floyd KO though.

Can't see that myself personally. But like most I've been proven woefully wrong in the past. Think he'll just lead off with the right and then counter him to high heaven and eventually do to Manny what he did to Hatton.

IF Marquez is an anomaly and Manny doesn't struggle with counterpunching styles, does Manny become a relatively clear favourite? Do people look and say "Manny hasn't really struggled with anyone in years. They've fought the same opponents on a few occasions and Manny has dispatched them without any real issues"? I would favour Manny to beat Maidana quite easily whereas Floyd made it hard work. Manny is younger, he's quicker, he's probably still hungrier...

DuransHorse wrote:

AdamT wrote:I am of a believe that once a chin is smashed, a fighter is never the same again, especially when they are in later years. Ask Roy Jones.

It is not a coincidene that Manny has not fought a bigger opponent since his ko.

I expect to see Floyd sit down on his punches more and try and stop him. Floyd will be dropped at some stage too but in a slug fest, I have no doubt he will stop Manny now since his ko.

Also expect Floyd to work the body more, try and slow Manny down.

In my opinion floyd will fight cautious and cover up the first couple rounds and then when Manny opens up, expect the lead right to smash him.

Really don't see this going 12.

All the stuff I have seen online suggest this will be Floyd going for the KO and working the body too.  I just don't see it as a Floyd KO though.

Most wont, but if his hands hold up he will Ko Manny. I know Manny was tough at a time but without sounding controversial, he has lost muscle and size recently as well.

Floyd doesn't normally push for the stoppage but he hits harder than what people think. Mosley actually thinks that FLoyd has very good power when he decides to sit down on his shots. If Floyd had no power, then the likes of Canelo would of walked through him.

Getting in to a bit of a ramble but I have picked a ko from the beginning and I definitely stand by it.

If I wrong so be it, have been wrong manys a time before

DuransHorse wrote:

Hammersmith harrier wrote:Without Marquez would Roach's training have been different thus we have a different Pacquiao altogether and not necessarily a better one?

In what way Hammer?  Do you mean more aggressive and careless with a "you can just blast 'em out" attitude?

It's possible, it's after the Marquez and Morales fights that we saw stark improvements in his temperament, the talent was never the problem but he did have a bull in a china shop attitude for a while. Despite all this he has never impressed in a fight where his opponent doesn't stand in front of him, he seems bereft of ideas but he's always looked top class against a hittable opponent.

AdamT wrote:

DuransHorse wrote:

AdamT wrote:I am of a believe that once a chin is smashed, a fighter is never the same again, especially when they are in later years. Ask Roy Jones.

It is not a coincidene that Manny has not fought a bigger opponent since his ko.

I expect to see Floyd sit down on his punches more and try and stop him. Floyd will be dropped at some stage too but in a slug fest, I have no doubt he will stop Manny now since his ko.

Also expect Floyd to work the body more, try and slow Manny down.

In my opinion floyd will fight cautious and cover up the first couple rounds and then when Manny opens up, expect the lead right to smash him.

Really don't see this going 12.

All the stuff I have seen online suggest this will be Floyd going for the KO and working the body too.  I just don't see it as a Floyd KO though.

Most wont, but if his hands hold up he will Ko Manny. I know Manny was tough at a time but without sounding controversial, he has lost muscle and size recently as well.

Floyd doesn't normally push for the stoppage but he hits harder than what people think. Mosley actually thinks that FLoyd has very good power when he decides to sit down on his shots. If Floyd had no power, then the likes of Canelo would of walked through him.

Getting in to a bit of a ramble but I have picked a ko from the beginning and I definitely stand by it.

If I wrong so be it, have been wrong manys a time before

Funnily enough, after the fight Calelo ripped into Floyds power and said he didn't really feel any of his shots but it does beg the question why he didn't just walk him down then?

Canelo is Mexican he's not going to say anything else he is despite it being clear to everyone that he couldn't walk Mayweather down as he hits harder than you expect.

One of a few worries I have for Floyd is that he thinks he's up against a naturally smaller guy and may well go hunting for the KO. His uncle has said 390290 times he got knocked out down at flyweight and has been knocked out since, so how does he then stand up to Floyd's punches etc.

Mind you, it would make for a much better fight if Floyd does sit down on his punches rather his rather well crafted pitt patt then get out of the way counter punch technique.

Coxy001 wrote:One of a few worries I have for Floyd is that he thinks he's up against a naturally smaller guy and may well go hunting for the KO. His uncle has said 390290 times he got knocked out down at flyweight and has been knocked out since, so how does he then stand up to Floyd's punches etc.

Mind you, it would make for a much better fight if Floyd does sit down on his punches rather his rather well crafted pitt patt then get out of the way counter punch technique.

AdamT made a good pint regarding Manny's chin too. Once broken and all that. Team Floyd may well think that is another indicator that he can get the job done in less than 12. I think that Manny's punches definitely get the opponents respect but also that Floyd hits hard enough to hurt Manny as well. Maybe, just maybe, Floyds can do another Hatton and time that punch later on that gets Manny out of there. However, the smart money must be on a points decision either way surely? Either knocking the other out as an unlikely scenario for me and I could see Floyd doing business as usual as the most likely of all the outcomes, however the next most likely is Manny just keeps coming and coming and scoring and scoring and wins via volume of punches, fitness and determination. 75/25 for me but that is based on JMM being the yardstick and having so much success over 4 fights with Manny.

I could see Floyd doing business as usual as the most likely of all the outcomes, however the next most likely is Manny just keeps coming and coming and scoring and scoring and wins via volume of punches, fitness and determination.  75/25 for me but that is based on JMM being the yardstick and having so much success over 4 fights with Manny.[/quote]

I agree that this is the safe bet and it was actually how would of seen the fight playing out a few years ago. Either Floyd schools Manny and wins a decision, with excellant defence and superior counter punching or, Manny attacks at all angles and lands more shots due to his punch out put and gets a decision.

The fight a few years ago would of been bigger for a hardcore fan and mean more to legacy, however I believe with both fighters being older and on the decline, we will witness a far more exciting fight.

I get he might see this as his defining fight, you could make an argument that he's worried about manny's workrate now floyds legs are going. You could say it doesn't matter about his dodgy hands because this is chance to define his greatness in a superfight and he won't care about his hands. You can talk yourself into all of these things if you want to.

Floyd isn't going for the knockout. It's talk. His hands are dodgy, he isn't going to risk them now when he hasn't for years. He could always do a marquez on him if manny jumps into one... but it's not going to be his plan. If he starts swinging he leaves himself open to getting caught. Why would he change a winning game plan... now of all times? He's going to nullify him pick him off, pile up the points like he always does

milkyboy wrote:I get he might see this as his defining fight, you could make an argument that he's worried about manny's workrate now floyds legs are going. You could say it doesn't matter about his dodgy hands because this is chance to define his greatness in a superfight and he won't care about his hands. You can talk yourself into all of these things if you want to.

Floyd isn't going for the knockout. It's talk. His hands are dodgy, he isn't going to risk them now when he hasn't for years. He could always do a marquez on him if manny jumps into one... but it's not going to be his plan. If he starts swinging he leaves himself open to getting caught. Why would he change a winning game plan... now of all times? He's going to nullify him pick him off, pile up the points like he always does

What if Manny's Chin is glass now. After Floyd stopped Hatton, you could clearly see the difference in his chin against Lazcano. We all know what happened against Manny.

Even if Floyd fights the usual tactics, I can still see him stopping Manny.

Time will tell but I am definitely putting money on a late stoppage.

Despite JMM's success, Manny always has his moments where he catches his opponents clean with a few good shots. I'm looking forward to seeing how Floyd handles those. Whilst I don't think they will stop Floyd, I do think lesser opponents feel a few of those clean shots and go via the cautious rout thereafter. Marquez is a warrior and kept coming, Floyd will have to get through a few of those moments to win too.

AdamT wrote:Mate most people are already backing Manny to win. On sky bet over 70% are backing Manny to win.

70% of people are idiots then.

No doubt Manny will hit and hurt Floyd. Floyd can take a shot. Mannys best option to win, is to hope Floyds like have gone and he can dart in and out at will.

TopHat24/7 wrote:

AdamT wrote:Mate most people are already backing Manny to win. On sky bet over 70% are backing Manny to win.

70% of people are idiots then.

People back with their hearts, I did the same when Tyson fought Lewis. I knew Lewis was superior but as the fight became closer I believed the young Tyson would show up.

I think Manny will win...

Workrate will be too hot for a 37 yr old..

[quote="TRUSSMAN66"]I think Manny will win...

38 Truss.

You have said that from the beginning, good to see you don't get swayed by prefight hype.

AdamT wrote:

milkyboy wrote:I get he might see this as his defining fight, you could make an argument that he's worried about manny's workrate now floyds legs are going. You could say it doesn't matter about his dodgy hands because this is chance to define his greatness in a superfight and he won't care about his hands. You can talk yourself into all of these things if you want to.

Floyd isn't going for the knockout. It's talk. His hands are dodgy, he isn't going to risk them now when he hasn't for years. He could always do a marquez on him if manny jumps into one... but it's not going to be his plan. If he starts swinging he leaves himself open to getting caught. Why would he change a winning game plan... now of all times? He's going to nullify him pick him off, pile up the points like he always does

What if Manny's Chin is glass now. After Floyd stopped Hatton, you could clearly see the difference in his chin against Lazcano. We all know what happened against Manny.

Even if Floyd fights the usual tactics, I can still see him stopping Manny.

Time will tell but I am definitely putting money on a late stoppage.

18/1 for Floyd in rounds 10-12.

Coxy001 wrote:

AdamT wrote:

milkyboy wrote:I get he might see this as his defining fight, you could make an argument that he's worried about manny's workrate now floyds legs are going. You could say it doesn't matter about his dodgy hands because this is chance to define his greatness in a superfight and he won't care about his hands. You can talk yourself into all of these things if you want to.

Floyd isn't going for the knockout. It's talk. His hands are dodgy, he isn't going to risk them now when he hasn't for years. He could always do a marquez on him if manny jumps into one... but it's not going to be his plan. If he starts swinging he leaves himself open to getting caught. Why would he change a winning game plan... now of all times? He's going to nullify him pick him off, pile up the points like he always does

What if Manny's Chin is glass now. After Floyd stopped Hatton, you could clearly see the difference in his chin against Lazcano. We all know what happened against Manny.

Even if Floyd fights the usual tactics, I can still see him stopping Manny.

Time will tell but I am definitely putting money on a late stoppage.

18/1 for Floyd in rounds 10-12.

Fatastic bet. Was thinking round 9 myself, mabe Mr Mayweather will hold out for a round.

AdamT wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I think Manny will win...

38 Truss.

You have said that from the beginning, good to see you don't get swayed by prefight hype.

Manny is in a great position...............

Past it If he loses...

Best all along If he wins..

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

AdamT wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I think Manny will win...

38 Truss.

You have said that from the beginning, good to see you don't get swayed by prefight hype.

Manny is in a great position...............

Past it If he loses...

Best all along If he wins..

Yep true, I remember Roy Jones saying before he fought Calzaghe: "If I lose, so what, happened before, BUT IF HE losses, that is big"

Though we know how that played out, he was right to an extent. Jones had nothing to lose.

AdamT wrote:

milkyboy wrote:I get he might see this as his defining fight, you could make an argument that he's worried about manny's workrate now floyds legs are going. You could say it doesn't matter about his dodgy hands because this is chance to define his greatness in a superfight and he won't care about his hands. You can talk yourself into all of these things if you want to.

Floyd isn't going for the knockout. It's talk. His hands are dodgy, he isn't going to risk them now when he hasn't for years. He could always do a marquez on him if manny jumps into one... but it's not going to be his plan. If he starts swinging he leaves himself open to getting caught. Why would he change a winning game plan... now of all times? He's going to nullify him pick him off, pile up the points like he always does

What if Manny's Chin is glass now. After Floyd stopped Hatton, you could clearly see the difference in his chin against Lazcano. We all know what happened against Manny.

Even if Floyd fights the usual tactics, I can still see him stopping Manny.

Time will tell but I am definitely putting money on a late stoppage.

Hatton would have been done by collazo with another round, Adam. There's no doubt that fighters are more prone to being knocked out once that 'invincibility' has gone, but you look for signs of them being gun shy, regularly wobbled etc. haven't seen that in manny.

Not saying a ko is impossible, just there's a reason for the odds being what they are. The bookies aren't listening to internet gossip.

I've thought for years that Manny wins due to volume of punches. Even if they're hitting shoulders n gloves, the judges may be conned by it over Floyd's single shot counters. Floyd needs to get his respect very early.

I can't see Floyd stopping him so there will need to be 3 good judges not to be swayed by the crowd also. It will probably be a very difficult fight to score.

Bookies are probably looking at Mannys last 3 fights and thinking Marquez was a freak.

Rios, Bradley and Algeri are no welters, Floyd is.

Marquez and Mayweather couldn't be more different.

Therefore it shouldn't make a difference I'd marquez had been born or not.

3fingers wrote:Therefore it shouldn't make a difference I'd marquez had been born or not.

It does if you see Marquez as the only clear sign that Manny can be beaten by a particular style in the last 10 years. He's the main reason most think he's slipped significantly or that he will lose to Mayweather. Whilst there are differences the "Mayweather is just a superior version of Marques in every department" argument is one that gets thrown about a lot.

AdamT wrote:Bookies are probably looking at Mannys last 3 fights and thinking Marquez was a freak.

Rios, Bradley and Algeri are no welters, Floyd is.

I suspect they're looking at floyd's knock out record at welter Adam, though given the ages Bradley and rios moved to welter I'm unsure why they'd be seen as less if a welter than ex super feather floyd.

Hey the bookies have been wrong before.

milkyboy wrote:

AdamT wrote:Bookies are probably looking at Mannys last 3 fights and thinking Marquez was a freak.

Rios, Bradley and Algeri are no welters, Floyd is.

I suspect they're looking at floyd's  knock out record at welter Adam, though given the ages Bradley and rios moved to welter I'm unsure why they'd be seen as less if a welter than ex super feather floyd.

Hey the bookies have been wrong before.

I know what you are saying mate but most fighters believe Floyd punches hard but doesn't necessarily go for the finish.

He wobbled Cotto in the 12th round of their fight. Granted Manny smashed Cotto but Floyd still has genuine power if he sits down on his shots. Possibly the heand problems might stop him from throwing full power.

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:I think Manny will win...

Workrate will be too hot for a 37 yr old..

The work rate that disappears when he faces a counter puncher, too much is made of Pacquiao throwing a lot against walking punch bags.

Hammersmith harrier wrote:The work rate that disappears when he faces a counter puncher, too much is made of Pacquiao throwing a lot against walking punch bags.

38 year old counterpuncher...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:

Hammersmith harrier wrote:The work rate that disappears when he faces a counter puncher, too much is made of Pacquiao throwing a lot against walking punch bags.

38 year old counterpuncher...

... against a 36 year old that's had a longer career relying on fast hands and feet though!

Manny's work rate judging by his last fight is still good...

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Manny's work rate judging by his last fight is still good...

Against who though? No real test when the guy is right there to pummel.

Look at Pacquiao's workrate against Marquez and compare it to every other fight and you'll see a stark difference Truss.

Truss, you doing a D4 and building up an opponent to the point they could rip the head off a raging gorilla.... to then be defeated by your favourite fighter and proclaim him the second coming?

10-1-1 or however the old saying goes.. springs to mind etc

DuransHorse wrote:

TRUSSMAN66 wrote:Manny's work rate judging by his last fight is still good...

Against who though?  No real test when the guy is right there to pummel.

His work rate will be higher than anybody Mayweather has fought in the last few years.........

38 is past it...............So is 36 but it ain't 38..

Go away Coxy..

Wonder if the resident muppet who reckons this is insignificant and Murray is a better win than Manny will be buying it..

Me thinks he will..