Djokovic - Is the Grand Slam on this year?

First topic message reminder :

Djoko's form of late suggests we'll have to seriously think about the Grand Slam being on this year. But even for a guy in scintillating form it's still a big ask. One off day, one opponent on fire, an injury, (dare we mention the 2011 "Fognini effect") - and the chance has gone.
What's always stopped Fed and Djoko having a real go at the calendar slam is the French and a certain Rafa Nadal. Now I still think Rafa will have a big say in what happens at RG but obviously he's far less of a favourite than in previous years.
So can Nole do it? Thoughts please.

I've tentatively thought about the possibility of Djokovic pulling off the four-timer this year, I'll admit. Right now I'd agree with the consensus that those 5/1 odds apparently being offered do seem very short, as a) we've only had one of the four Slams to this point, b) the next one coming up is the one that Djokovic hasn't won yet, and c) history shows us that it's a bleedin' hard thing to do. Even if he were to win the French in three weeks' time, 5/1 afterwards would still seem a bit stingy in my opinion. But before reaching that point? Crazy stuff.

It's unlikely, but maybe just a bit less unlikely than it has been for some other greats since Rocket Rod, if that makes sense. As far as nigh-on impossible achievements go, the circumstances in Djokovic's quest for one ain't too bad in context; Federer is still a superb player, but at the same time clearly removed from his peak as you'd reasonably expect any 33-year-old in the modern game to be. Nadal looks as vulnerable on clay as he ever has since his maiden title in Paris a decade ago and hasn't made a significant impact at Wimbledon for a while. Murray is showing signs of returning to his very best, but Djokovic has the wood on him at the moment. Wawrinka, Dimitrov, Tsonga etc are all potential bogeymen but have a tendency to blow hot and cold.

None of the above is a criticism of the state of men's tennis or Djokovic's level of competition, by the way. Just because the men's game isn't in absolute tip-top shape at the high end like it was three or four years back doesn't mean that it's not still in good shape in its own right today. A calender year Grand Slam in 2015 would rank as one of the greatest sporting feats in history without any equivocation. None of this 'wee keira' stuff that you v2 tennis lads and ladettes like to have a chin wag about!

On top of that, factor in that Djokovic, conceivably, could still potentially raise his level even further. He's played excellently in 2015 so far, but consensus seems to say that his level has been just a notch or so down from the stuff he was producing in 2011. Based on what I've seen, I'd go along with that as well. What he's been producing has already been good enough to dominate the first five months of the year, and there could still be more in the tank.

Definitely a fun one to ponder, and it'd be fantastic to see such a special achievement in this era. We can dream, I guess. I don't think it'll happen and to be honest it'd take until Wimbledon was in the bag for me to really think it was properly 'on.' But slim though the chances are, they're still just about as good - maybe even better - than anyone else's for many, many years.

CYGS is an immense achievement, no doubt. But, we can talk about the level of difficulties now and before. This year, Rafa is down, Raonic has injury, Cilic is just back from injury, Stan is inconsistent, Ferrer is showing his age, so we're left with Fed, Murray and Kei.

Fed lost early at the AO, I'm not sure in a Bo5, will he still be a threat? So the main threats to Novak may be Murray and Kei, certainly unlike 2011-2012 where the big four occupied all the finalist spots at each slam! Or 2013 where Ferrer made it to the FO final being the only exception.

I do feel this is the best chance for Novak to get the CYGS, let's see will he or can he really do it.

Chris, good to see you posting here. You should drop by more often

We fight marginally less frequently than the boxing board! Maybe

Silver, good post, but I also do think we have to note the difference between BO3 and BO5 for majors.
My analysis of the situation is Federer is still playing well, and a threat in BO3 tournaments, but his chances in BO5 his lower as that is physically more demanding for him. So thus in Slams he is less of a threat.

Cheers, Silver. Been meaning to pop over to the tennis board a little more, will be keeping a closer eye on it.

Would be an achievement if he just won the French really. May be wrong but when was the last time the GS was still on after the second slam of the year?

Courier back in 1992 I think, Raf.

I recently said that I didn't think that Djokovic's form this year is at the level of 2011 but I may be starting to reconsider.

2011 was incredible but, in hindsight, it looks like a serendipitous mix of an improvement in ability (the fitness issues being resolved) coinciding with another event to boost confidence (the DC win).

For the first part of that year he almost couldn't lose. He was riding a wave. Once that wave began to wane though, he couldn't avoid the losses. 2011 ended badly and 2012 was very patchy.

This year though, I get the impression that he can lose but he finds a way to avoid it.

He's winning not just with ball striking but with determination, nerve, and tactics.

Even though I mourn the withering of his BHDTL, I do now wonder if perhaps he is tougher to beat than his 2011 incarnation.

88Chris05 wrote:I've tentatively thought about the possibility of Djokovic pulling off the four-timer this year, I'll admit. Right now I'd agree with the consensus that those 5/1 odds apparently being offered do seem very short, as a) we've only had one of the four Slams to this point, b) the next one coming up is the one that Djokovic hasn't won yet, and c) history shows us that it's a bleedin' hard thing to do. Even if he were to win the French in three weeks' time, 5/1 afterwards would still seem a bit stingy in my opinion. But before reaching that point? Crazy stuff.

It's unlikely, but maybe just a bit less unlikely than it has been for some other greats since Rocket Rod, if that makes sense. As far as nigh-on impossible achievements go, the circumstances in Djokovic's quest for one ain't too bad in context; Federer is still a superb player, but at the same time clearly removed from his peak as you'd reasonably expect any 33-year-old in the modern game to be. Nadal looks as vulnerable on clay as he ever has since his maiden title in Paris a decade ago and hasn't made a significant impact at Wimbledon for a while. Murray is showing signs of returning to his very best, but Djokovic has the wood on him at the moment. Wawrinka, Dimitrov, Tsonga etc are all potential bogeymen but have a tendency to blow hot and cold.

None of the above is a criticism of the state of men's tennis or Djokovic's level of competition, by the way. Just because the men's game isn't in absolute tip-top shape at the high end like it was three or four years back doesn't mean that it's not still in good shape in its own right today. A calender year Grand Slam in 2015 would rank as one of the greatest sporting feats in history without any equivocation. None of this 'wee keira' stuff that you v2 tennis lads and ladettes like to have a chin wag about!

On top of that, factor in that Djokovic, conceivably, could still potentially raise his level even further. He's played excellently in 2015 so far, but consensus seems to say that his level has been just a notch or so down from the stuff he was producing in 2011. Based on what I've seen, I'd go along with that as well. What he's been producing has already been good enough to dominate the first five months of the year, and there could still be more in the tank.

Definitely a fun one to ponder, and it'd be fantastic to see such a special achievement in this era. We can dream, I guess. I don't think it'll happen and to be honest it'd take until Wimbledon was in the bag for me to really think it was properly 'on.' But slim though the chances are, they're still just about as good - maybe even better - than anyone else's for many, many years.

Good post very fair and I think you are right about one crucial fact. Djokovic I don't think except for few matches like the final in Rome, the semi against Rafa at Monaco has not really hit his absolute best. I would make one caveat to the idea that Djokovic is not hitting 2011 levels. I think he has a better slice backhand, is a better and more frequent volleyer, and his serve is better. He is getting an ace more per match and winning a higher percentage of second serves this year than in 2011. Therefore if the guy is 21 wins on the trot and has won the last 7 first tier events he has entered in since November of last year and he isn't as good as his best that is actually a major point in his favor for completing the CYGS. Because you would think that after the FO if he wins it he will up his level, of course some think he might relax a bit or be worn down. I am of the belief that we could see the best Djokovic ever if he bags the FO. Because of all the top players in today's game he is actually the streakiest despite his incredible results. Even a reduced level from him gets him by 98 percent of the tour 98 percent of the time. Well what if he actually gets a burst of momentum and belief added to his already high level for this season and further dents the confidence of his main rivals.

I am sticking by call that he won't do it, that he is probably 15-1 to do it. But I think he can be better right now than in 2011 because of the added maturity, variety to his game, and more free points on his serve.

I will put this way on the competition level, if Djokovic wins the grandslam it will be a bigger achievement than Federer winning it in in 04-07. If Murray switched spots with Federer and had his peak in 04-07 he would probably have 5-6 slams by now. On a fast court Murray is better than any member of the rollover generation. And therefore a 33 year old Roger and fading Nadal are still better than all those guys as well. The level of competition is down but still way higher than the era of the weak sister brigade and by a country mile. Lets remember that Agassi at Fed's age won the AO and for a short spell reached number 1 in the early 2000s. That tells you a lot about Agassi's game also tells you about the pathetic competition during that period. And Fed as we know is a notch or two above Andre in skill level and athleticism therefore a Fed of 33 doing well with how fit and few injuries he has had is not as big a detraction from the competition level as assumed by some.

I would say Novak was playing better in 2011 on the slow HCs than he's playing now but he's playing better on clay now. The way Novak was playing at the AO2011, and the early rounds at IW and Miami where he bageled almost everyone then, I doubt he's playing better in 2015. He has improved on clay though, both in his game and in his movement, doesn't need much getting used to the clay surface, a smoother transition from HC to clay now compared to 2011.

Ha, we're at it again. First we argued that Fed is a better player (post 2007) than when he was in 2004-2007; then we argued that Rafa was better in 2013 than when he's in 2008; and now we have the present Novak better than his 2011 version.

In all three cases, I think it's both yes and no. Yes for becoming more complete players, no for losing in speed and power as they get older. So, I'm not sure Novak is better now than his 2011 version, we have to see what he can achieve this year before making any conclusion.

HM Murdoch wrote:I recently said that I didn't think that Djokovic's form this year is at the level of 2011 but I may be starting to reconsider.

2011 was incredible but, in hindsight, it looks like a serendipitous mix of an improvement in ability (the fitness issues being resolved) coinciding with another event to boost confidence (the DC win).

For the first part of that year he almost couldn't lose. He was riding a wave. Once that wave began to wane though, he couldn't avoid the losses. 2011 ended badly and 2012 was very patchy.

This year though, I get the impression that he can lose but he finds a way to avoid it.

He's winning not just with ball striking but with determination, nerve, and tactics.

Even though I mourn the withering of his BHDTL, I do now wonder if perhaps he is tougher to beat than his 2011 incarnation.

I don't know. I think his 2011 was by far the best he's been. Purely because he took the fight to the field and was really aggressive with his play. The 2015 still has some of that vulnerability post 2011. His matches with Stan, Murray, Dolgo and Nishi have certainly shown his blips in his play and level.

The 2011 version was a steamroller and this current version chug along train.

socal1976 wrote:I will put this way on the competition level, if Djokovic wins the grandslam it will be a bigger achievement than Federer winning it in in 04-07. If Murray switched spots with Federer and had his peak in 04-07 he would probably have 5-6 slams by now. On a fast court Murray is better than any member of the rollover generation. And therefore a 33 year old Roger and fading Nadal are still better than all those guys as well. The level of competition is down but still way higher than the era of the weak sister brigade and by a country mile. Lets remember that Agassi at Fed's age won the AO and for a short spell reached number 1 in the early 2000s. That tells you a lot about Agassi's game also tells you about the pathetic competition during that period. And Fed as we know is a notch or two above Andre in skill level and athleticism therefore a Fed of 33 doing well with how fit and few injuries he has had is not as big a detraction from the competition level as assumed by some.

I don't want to debate too much about the mid-naughties period because we've discussed it at length on this forum, but as you guess I agree with the gist of what you say.

In terms of current competition for Djokovic, I think a lot depends on Murray. He's shown some good signs this year, and if he continues on an upward trend I see him back to where he was pre-surgery and a real threat. But it's also possible that despite these positive signs he doesn't actually push on, let's see.
But Murray's the only real potential threat I see. Nadal has been really poor this year, the young guns have been really disappointing (especially Kei who I was expecting a lot from), and Federer as I said earlier is a threat in BO3 but not really BO5.

88Chris05 wrote: A calender year Grand Slam in 2015 would rank as one of the greatest sporting feats in history without any equivocation. None of this 'wee keira' stuff that you v2 tennis lads and ladettes like to have a chin wag about!

I would agree with the first statement, winning the Grand Slam (as I'm pretty sure Djokovic will do), is a great achievement; no doubt about it.
As for your second statement, I would first note that not me or anyone who makes a similar argument uses 'weak era'- as it is a relative discussion rather than absolute.
Secondly, and more importantly, I see no reason why analysing this should be 'off the table' or some sort of taboo. Just like we discuss how Djokovic's form is, when seeing his chances of winning the CYGS, we should also be allowed to analyse what shape his competition is in. As far as I can see, compared to a few years ago the level of competition meant winning CYGS was substantially more challenging.

legendkillarV2 wrote:I don't know. I think his 2011 was by far the best he's been. Purely because he took the fight to the field and was really aggressive with his play. The 2015 still has some of that vulnerability post 2011. His matches with Stan, Murray, Dolgo and Nishi have certainly shown his blips in his play and level.

The 2011 version was a steamroller and this current version chug along train.

That's the second time you've made me smile today, LK. (The first was your 'Benitez facts' comment).

The legend of 2011 is perhaps more steamroller-esue than the reality. It was a brilliant level of tennis, no doubt, but it had its share of struggles. The USO SF is the most famous but there were others. In Rome, Murray served for the match against him.  Miami v Rafa was a 3rd set tie break. Wimbledon had sets dropped to Baghdatis and an 18 year old Tomic.

It's tough to say if he was more aggressive in 2011. The BHDTL was brilliant that year and it has sadly almost vanished now. I think his aggression is perhaps more subtle now. The variety in the serve, the ability at the net, the slice and the lob have all improved and I think he is more capable of exerting a consistent and sustainable pressure now.

I do get the point you are making though and would have agreed until recently. I'm just beginning to re-assess a bit.

HM Murdoch wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:I don't know. I think his 2011 was by far the best he's been. Purely because he took the fight to the field and was really aggressive with his play. The 2015 still has some of that vulnerability post 2011. His matches with Stan, Murray, Dolgo and Nishi have certainly shown his blips in his play and level.

The 2011 version was a steamroller and this current version chug along train.

That's the second time you've made me smile today, LK. (The first was your 'Benitez facts' comment).

The legend of 2011 is perhaps more steamroller-esue than the reality. It was a brilliant level of tennis, no doubt, but it had its share of struggles. The USO SF is the most famous but there were others. In Rome, Murray served for the match against him.  Miami v Rafa was a 3rd set tie break. Wimbledon had sets dropped to Baghdatis and an 18 year old Tomic.

It's tough to say if he was more aggressive in 2011. The BHDTL was brilliant that year and it has sadly almost vanished now. I think his aggression is perhaps more subtle now. The variety in the serve, the ability at the net, the slice and the lob have all improved and I think he is more capable of exerting a consistent and sustainable pressure now.

I do get the point you are making though and would have agreed until recently. I'm just beginning to re-assess a bit.

I think in 2011 he did carry an aura of being invincible and unbeatable. His flat CCBH was devastating, especially against Nadal on the clay that year. I find in 2015 he is more than willing to rally at the back of the court. In 2011 he would step in and mop up the court. He did have struggles in that year, but I always felt he could go on and win the match. I feel 2015 he has sucked the life out of his opponents.

I do wonder though if he triumphs at the FO whether with the surfaces after being quicker whether he might add a bit more aggression to his approach to shorten matches.

legendkillarV2 wrote: I feel 2015 he has sucked the life out of his opponents.

Yes, this is true.

At the start of the season I thought he was just digging in and scraping through. And to an extent he was.

But in MC and Rome he really looked like he'd found a level that slowly turns the screw on an opponent whilst stopping them landing any big blows on him. It's very controlled. He's like a boxer landing lots of jabs whilst ducking and weaving away from the punches coming his way.

I think that's partly why there have been so many runaway 3rd/5th sets this year. The opponent is just spent after expending so much energy and concentration for so little return.

It Must Be Love wrote:

socal1976 wrote:I will put this way on the competition level, if Djokovic wins the grandslam it will be a bigger achievement than Federer winning it in in 04-07. If Murray switched spots with Federer and had his peak in 04-07 he would probably have 5-6 slams by now. On a fast court Murray is better than any member of the rollover generation. And therefore a 33 year old Roger and fading Nadal are still better than all those guys as well. The level of competition is down but still way higher than the era of the weak sister brigade and by a country mile. Lets remember that Agassi at Fed's age won the AO and for a short spell reached number 1 in the early 2000s. That tells you a lot about Agassi's game also tells you about the pathetic competition during that period. And Fed as we know is a notch or two above Andre in skill level and athleticism therefore a Fed of 33 doing well with how fit and few injuries he has had is not as big a detraction from the competition level as assumed by some.

I don't want to debate too much about the mid-naughties period because we've discussed it at length on this forum, but as you guess I agree with the gist of what you say.

In terms of current competition for Djokovic, I think a lot depends on Murray. He's shown some good signs this year, and if he continues on an upward trend I see him back to where he was pre-surgery and a real threat. But it's also possible that despite these positive signs he doesn't actually push on, let's see.
But Murray's the only real potential threat I see. Nadal has been really poor this year, the young guns have been really disappointing (especially Kei who I was expecting a lot from), and Federer as I said earlier is a threat in BO3 but not really BO5.

Yeah I agree with what you got to say but I think Fed could still put Novak in trouble at USO or wimbeldon remember last year they went 5 sets. And Murray I think is naturally a better grass court player so it makes it a challenge as well and he has beaten Novak at the USO over 5 sets. I think Murray is pretty close to the level he had with Lendl. I mean he has won masters on clay, and been in the finals of Miami and the AO. So he does seem to be over the worst of his poor form last year. As for Nadal lets see what happens it still maybe too soon to tell after this upcoming fortnight we will no much more about his ability to make an impact.

I think Djolovic has said 2015 was his best season so far which I thought was curious. I thought 2011 was stronger up this point in the year. 2011 faded towards the end, perhaps tiredness, so if Djokovic can win 3 slams this year and have a stronger finish, this may work out even a slightly better year overall.

Lets see how Rafa performs at the FO before writing him off this season! Also the point about Novak being more subtle now in his attack and sucked the life out of his opponents, well isnt he like the Nadal of the past?? Having tussles with his opponents till they were drained physically and mentally! In 2011 Novak was playing like Fed, more attacking than involving in tussles unless its vs the top four guys; now hes involved in more tussles not unlike the Rafa of old.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Lets see how Rafa performs at the FO before writing him off this season!  Also the point about Novak being more subtle now in his attack and sucked the life out of his opponents, well isnt he like the Nadal of the past??  Having tussles with his opponents till they were drained physically and mentally!  In 2011 Novak was playing like Fed, more attacking than involving in tussles unless its vs the top four guys; now hes involved in more tussles not unlike the Rafa of old.

I disagree completely if anything Novak is more conscious of finishing points quickly this year. As Murdoch has stated the only shot that isn't quite up to 2011 standards for me is the BHDTL, it is still pretty good but not the finishing shot it was in that year. Back in 2011 Novak could beat you by hit winners left and right but he also played a lot of matches where he wore down opponents physically and mentally by just not missing. This year he is getting more free points on his serve. He is more aggressive in moving into the court. And he using the drop shots as a way to quickly end points. If anything Novak of 2011 knew he was better than you in long points, knew he was better from the back of the court so if you wanted to play 30 straight 20 shot rallies with him he was game. Now if you notice even when he plays Nadal or Murray he is simply not willing to play 20 shot rally after 20 shot rally. He moves in or hits out on his forehand. Yes in 2011 if the opportunity was there to end a point he would do it, but I feel he is more aggressive and more focused on keeping matches from becoming wars of attrition. Back then he knew you couldn't go the distance with him so he didn't press as much.

Good assessment, Socal.

He appears to have much greater control over how a point is won nowadays.

You are quite about the rallies too. In 2011 he could/would use the length of the rallies as a weapon.

This year, he's definitely looking to win points quickly.

Yes Murdoch if you watch his matches now you will see that he doesn't want to engage in too many gladiatorial points. I think he realized after the AO 2012 that while he could win that way it couldn't be his main strategy longterm. Yes he still can do the twenty shot rally. But now I feel like he will press the opposition by either bringing them into net with angled chip or the drop shot or by moving in himself. Even when he plays rafa or Andy we are seeing that the sets are not taking as long. We aren't seeing too many replays of AO 2012 semi and final or the USO final of 2012 nowadays. His style is subtly more economical. Lets remember this is a very bright guy speaks five languages well has brought himself to the pinnacle of his sport through continuing evolution. And a big part of that evolution is not just wining but finding more efficient and better ways of winning.

The drop shot/lob combo has been very effective this year. Scarcely a match goes by without one now and he plays it so accurately.

Nah, he has even more tussles this year than 2011, and vs the non top four guys! Didnt he struggle vs Klizan, Dolgo at Miami? Or Almagro, Bellucci at Rome? Or Stan at AO?

We're comparing with 2011 or 2012? Hes so good in 2011 that he hardly needed long matches except vs Fed and Rafa at USO. Its only vs Rafa at USO that he needed to grind out a win.

Even with his drop shots, net rushing, volleying and lobs, he still needed to grind and took the life out of Stan and Murray at AO, and the likes of Dolgo and Murray at Miami. Bagelling them after going the distance meant that hes outdoing them physically at the end of the match.

HM Murdoch wrote:The drop shot/lob combo has been very effective this year. Scarcely a match goes by without one now and he plays it so accurately.

The only trouble with that is that he has become incredibly predictable with it. If the dinked reply is played to his backhand side, he will put the lob up 100% of the time, without any shadow of a doubt. I have literally never seen him play another shot in that situation. For some reason, this tiny portion of his game irks me!

As you say, he's become masterful at playing the combination but it doesn't work against certain players who've played him enough to read it.

I would broadly agree with both you and socal though; he has become more diverse in his game, and that extends to shutting down points more quickly. He has an increasing number of strings to his bow as his career goes on, and happily, he's utilising them more frequently during rallies. I've greatly enjoyed witnessing Novak's evolution as a player - he'll never be a natural volleyer or touch player per se, but the fact that he's willing to work so hard at improving those aspects of his game is very welcome. And he ain't half bad at them these days either.

He was using the drop shots more often during the clay season, not so much during the HC season. I guess he knows on clay players tend to play further back from the baseline, also he notices his greatest rival on this surface plays from so far back behind the baseline, so using the drop shot more on clay does have its advantage.

The volleying, lobs etc were not new, he was already using them last year. His serve was already great during Wimbledon 2013, all these he developed through the years since 2011.

Yes, we know they aren't new.

But it's how he is weaving these shots into his general gameplan that has changed since 2011. It's been a constantly evolving process, as it is for any player.

The range of volleying has improved enormously. He started working on it as far back as 2012 but prior to Becker, he rarely played any volley that wasn't a cushioned drop shot. His range in that area has definitely expanded.

Silver is right, he'll never be a natural at the net. But what used to be a glaring weakness has now at least reached a level of competency and can, on occasion, be rather good.

The serve has been good for a while but it has definitely gone up a notch, on both the first and second.

I think Becker deserves some credit. Had Novak's game fallen apart when he joined the team, fingers would have been pointed at Boris.

As his game has improved, Boris must get a share of the credit.

Silver wrote:Yes, we know they aren't new.

But it's how he is weaving these shots into his general gameplan that has changed since 2011. It's been a constantly evolving process, as it is for any player.

Well said.

He hasn't turned into a SVer or a "feel" player but his point construction is now quite different to 2011.

BLB, djokovic is getting more free points on serve than in 2011 that isn't an opinion it is a fact based on statistics. In fact he is acing almost 20 percent more frequently in matches.

Socal, I wrote: 'His serve was already great during Wimbledon 2013,all these he developed through the years since 2011'.