Rafa and the WTF

We had a similar thread when Andy was struggling on his return from injury last year. Rafa now finds himself in a very similar position. He's currently 8th in the race, so not too badly placed, but there's no big clay points for him to hoover up for the rest of the year.

So, the question is, will he make it to the end of year showpiece or does he even care? A lot was made of Andy's efforts to qualify last year, although, to be honest, I think that was more a case of elevating his rankings for slams.

My hunch is that Rafa will qualify, as, even if his form remains distinctly average, I don't see anyone below him doing a lot of damage either. Either way, it will be interesting to see how he copes with the lack of ranking protection in draws, particularly if he doesn't arrest the slide at Wimby. Must be a very long time since he's had to play 1st round of Masters.

Anyway, discuss.....

According to this http://live-tennis.eu/race he has a 1,000 point cushion which is quite a lot. When you add to that the argument that he is currently off form, and eventually could return to form, and move up the rankings, I would favour him qualifying.

Another way to look at it is to look at how many points you need to qualify.

If you look at the last 5 years the 8th ranked player in the week of Christmas had 4440, 3730, 3490, 2965 and 3,665 for an average of 3658.

The 9th ranked player had 4150, 3300, 2990, 2595, 3240 for an average of 3255.

Since 1 player may not participate, the mid-point of 3450 is around the number of points the last qualified player for the WTF has at the season end.

However, the actual qualification points would be lower, I need to discount points actually won at the WTF.

Say the average 8th seeded player wins on average 200 points at the WTF, that makes 3250 as the number of points needed to have a better than 50/50 chance of qualifying.

He has 2560 already according to the site above, so he needs only around 700 more to have a 50/50 chance of making the tournament. That's just like 1 masters final or a couple of semis or a US Open semi, so you would favour his chances as being solidly higher than 50/50. Maybe around 80%.

But...does it really matter? I bet Rafa doesn't care about playing the WTF unless he is actually in the form to win it, which may not be the case this year. If he's not, he might be just as happy taking the time off in Spain and relaxing and coming back stronger the next year. Unless his form improves considerably, the WTF is not a surface where he looks capable of doing much damage.

He'll make it.

So is he now a 4th round potential opponent for the top 4? That's going to really create some draw arguments!!

Yh I bet you would love for him not too make it. well too bad hes gonna be there. Even if he isn't who cares. Its just a glorifed exibition

Thanks for the analysis HB. You're right about the cushion. I hadn't really noticed that. So are we effectively saying the top 8 is already pretty much sown up for the year? Barring injury, the only other player I could see slipping out of the top 8 would be Ferrer and even that seems pretty unlikely.

I guess the only thing that could make it interesting would be if at least two of the chasing pack had a surprising slam run. That's what happened with Cilic and Nishi at the US Open last year. The automatic qualification of a lower ranked slam winner can really shake things up.

While you're probably right that it's far fetched that Rafa will miss out this year, I do think a precipitous fall down the rankings is a possibility. He appears to have lost his aura and, if he's losing to all and sundry on clay, then you do wonder about his prospects on grass and hard.

You're probably also right that, ultimately, Rafa doesn't care greatly. Seems like he rarely bothers to turn up at the WTF these days. Of course, that's mostly the ATP's fault for holding it on unfavourable indoor conditions, the cheeky blighters!

If Rafa has poor Wimbledon's and USO's he may not even show up at is rate...I have a sneaking feeling we could see him do a "Wilander" and fade quickly from tour.

Of course, maybe getting the French Open Perennial Winning monkey off his back may allow him to play with more freedom and just go out and swing the racquet. But I suspect not...WTF is nowhere near Rafa's radar, never has been. I genuinely wonder if he'll make it that far in terms of wanting to show up if key event results don't pick up.

I honestly don't think any of the big four are bothered about this unless they think they can win it

It's a fair point to say that Murray was more perturbed than a potential ranking outside the Top 8 leading into the Aus Open, than he was at missing O2

Rafa, should just do what he needs to do

TRuffin wrote:He'll make it.

So is he now a 4th round potential opponent for the top 4?  That's going to really create some draw arguments!!

He will ranked 10 after FO with virtually no poiints to defend. So I think he cannot play a top 4 player until QF's at earliest. Also think he is at 8 in race to WTF. Expect him to qualify

ZZ wrote:Yh I bet you would love for him not too make it. well too bad hes gonna be there. Even if he isn't who cares. Its just a glorifed exibition

Someone's testy today. Not entirely sure who you're railing against. I don't see anyone doing Rafa down so far on this thread.

You don't have to care about the WTF - it's not compulsory to like it. However, I would take issue with your classification of it as a 'glorified exhibition'. It has the most ranking points outside the slams, unquestionably adds to a player's CV and tends to be won only by the very best. The only drawback is it's timing at the season end, which means that it can be undermined by burnout and injury withdrawals. I've always liked the idea of moving it to the start of the season, but that would possibly require the AO to be shunted back and I don't see that happening any time soon.

Lydian, Nadal has scheduled to play some clay tournaments after Wimbledon, as well as Stuttgart and Queens before. I don't think he's given up just yet.

Is he playing Hamburg? Could pick up 500 points there which would be a major boost for qualification.

I'm not sure I agree that WTF has never been on Rafa's radar. I am not sure what you mean exactly, where lack of interest or low chance of actually winning it, but either way I disagree. I think he would really like 1 in his career, it is the biggest trophy he has never won and to be the only man to take the Davis Cup, Olympics, WTF and the four slams is a big deal in my opinion. ...he has played it 6 times, with the result of twice finalist, twice semi finalist, and twice eliminated in the group stages which is reasonable. It's a fast court but not that fast, and if he was back in form, he would have a chance again. Unlikely now, but you never know.

lydian wrote:If Rafa has poor Wimbledon's and USO's he may not even show up at is rate...I have a sneaking feeling we could see him do a "Wilander" and fade quickly from tour.

Good to "hear" from you Lydian.

Henman Bill wrote:Is he playing Hamburg? Could pick up 500 points there which would be a major boost for qualification.

I'm not sure I agree that WTF has never been on Rafa's radar. I am not sure what you mean exactly, where lack of interest or low chance of actually winning it, but either way I disagree. I think he would really like 1 in his career, it is the biggest trophy he has never won and to be the only man to take the Davis Cup, Olympics, WTF and the four slams is a big deal in my opinion. ...he has played it 6 times, with the result of twice finalist, twice semi finalist, and twice eliminated in the group stages which is reasonable. It's a fast court but not that fast, and if he was back in form, he would have a chance again. Unlikely now, but you never know.

Two years ago he said winning the WTF was "the biggest remaining goal in my career".  Lol at those who think he doesn't want one.

Djokovic last year : This (wtf final) is one of the most important matches on our schedule". Another interview: "This is the one we all want to win after the Major finals"

Federer : "my goals for the year always start with the majors, then WTF, and then other tournaments that have personal meaning to me". Another quote : "I view my wtf titles almost like my slam titles. It's our world championships".

Sampras when asked his most important career accomplishments "My Wimbledon wins I think rank #1, and I think my consecutive year end #1 will be my most lasting record. After that my success at the world tour finals and U.S. Open rank at the top.

Laver said that not winning the tours version of the wrf at that time was "my one career regret that I was never able to win"

Players fight tooth and nail to qualify every year.

Of cioirse we all know what is posted by zz is fan bias nonsense, but glorified exhibition? Lol. The players and the tour are who decides what's important and they deem the wtf the next most important tournament after the majors. Nadal wants it bad and I guarantee you would trade a few of those precious master 1000 wins for just one wtf.

You get to decide what importnsr though.. Lol  Whatever makes you sleep better I guess.

Nadal will qualify. I recall a similar thread for another player in similar vein - https://www.606v2.com/t48666-stop-worrying-federer-will-qualify-for-the-wtf .

I think Federer should come out and help his best friend Nadal similar to how Nadal helped Federer.

“He’s going to go, he’s going to qualify. I am sure of that,” Nadal told reporters in Shanghai. “He (Federer) is not going to have a problem. Even if he doesn’t have lots of points of advantage, I feel he always played well in this last part of the season. He likes to play in these tournaments. He always had the positive results. I really feel that he will do it. He’s a great player and I am sure he will be there and fighting for the title.”

http://www.tennis.com/pro-game/2013/10/nadal-federer-will-qualify-london/49402/#.UlRvbBCKLLY

Of course Rafa will qualify. He is #8 in the YTD Race but he has a big cushion to #9 - in fact he is closer to #3 than to #9.

The threat from below is Raonic surely?

He usually reaches qf or sf of every tournament he enters, very consistent.

Fair enough; I had not properly appreciated that #9 is Raonic whose numbers have been hurt by his injury. That does make it more dangerous, but even so, I would be surprised if Rafa ended up being the one missing on top 8.