Rafa confirms he was past best by 2012

First topic message reminder :

I said it at the time (as did Lydian), but yesterday Rafa has confirmed what all keen students of the game knew; by 2012 he had passed his peak.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/tennis/33374936

"I don't know if I'll be back to the level of 2008 or 2010".


That said, the decline is accelerated by the effect of being pulled up for time violations. Despite still being in reach, he has speeded up and now can't get the rest time to clear those big muscles. This means he now gets fatigued normally and loses his greatest weapon, the attritional relentless hammering play. Without this he's under much more pressure to be aggressive and makes the errors other players have been making against him.

No freedom of speech?

And there in lies your problem. Exaggeration. You know he played in the last week of September last year? So he missed a couple of months...unless he didn't play until the end of March this year! Also...he didn't write the season off immediately (end of Nov) two months later. He hoped to play in the tour finals and dropped out in the weeks leading up to it. Yes, we can argue that was to keep sponsors happy. But ultimately, that shows the surgery was minor.

I'm not writing him off. But he's just not playing good tennis right now. And I don't think it's linked to stuff that happened last year. His looks energetic. His movement is not hindered. He's just bang out of form. And he's come back from.longer periods of inactivity and been dominant immediately.

temporary21 wrote:Ok so he missed 6 months of the last year so hes only played 6 months out of the last 12, and has developed a wrist problem, a back issue he needed a fairly big treatment on, and had no time for a training block at all.
With that were ragging on him for not getting straight back up to his best? It must be that hes just strong all along, nothing to do with his tennis or sporting ability... yeah...

Its a case of trying to understand, than just criticise, im surprised that that ardent tennis fans would be that dismissive of someone who has earned so much more respect than that
I see no reason to continue this one on my end, im not in the habit of trying to dismiss peoples achievements.

"Back issue he needed a fairly big treatment on"???  Lol-  do you know anything about stem cell back injections- because that is a comically exaggerated statement is you do.    Stem cell injections are nothing more than a higher tech and more expensive version of the epidural steroid injections (not the illegal kind:) that nearly every chronic lower back pain sufferer has had for years.  I've had 3 a year of the steroid injections for 15+ years.    Both are a 30 minute out patient procedures where they take a big needle and inject the inflamed area with fluoroscope guidance.  Flush the area with the inflammation reducing steroids and now a days- stem cell.   Other than a sore area for a few hours- it has no recovery period at all.  Nadal could be on the court at full strength a day after the injection.  Nonsense to even bring that into the equation of his performance.  It sounds complicated but it's no worse than giving blood.

Appendix surgery?  Multiple nba, nfl players (think about the physicality of that sport) have had that surgery and been back in games at full strength in 2 weeks!  Adrian Peterson (all pro running back) 2 weeks after surgery pounded his way to nearly 100yd rushing in a game.  qb's like cassel (all the torquing needed in that position), back practicing in one week and staring 2 weeks later.  

We may not be allowed to talk about valid observations of why nadal has declined so rapidly-  but at that se time- you (nadal fans) shouldn't throw out just as non factual statements about procedures that are laughably minor in the world of high tech, money no cost is an issue top athletes medical technology.

His stem cell treatment:

1) obtain stem cell from him and cultivate in lab;
2) inject cultivated cell to his affected area, ie his back.

I don't know the detail of this whole process so no comment.

As i said, he missed a training block at end of last year so when he's just back from injury in Jan, its obvious he's lacking in fitness and stamina. However by March or April his fitness is almost back to normal. I don't see him lacking in energy, not during the FO or Stuttgart or Wimbledon. We can't compare this comeback with that in 2013, as back then he was already training for his comeback, using end of 2012 as his usual training block.

As he's lacking in training, his FH tend to misfiring at times as he couldnt get his timing right, not forgetting he had a brief racket change just before the clay season but it didnt work out well after his horrible Barcelona performance and he had to use his old racket from Madrid onwards.

He was playing well at Stuttgart hitting flatter shots and serving well with many aces; however at Wimbledon, he was nervous more than anything else and reverted back to his clay court style tennis and lost to a red hot inspired player just like in the past three years.

Its due to his lower ranking that he had to meet Novak earlier on clay and so he lost at the SF and QF at MC and FO respectively and lost. His loss to Murray and Stan? Both were playing inspired tennis while Nadal was playing nervous tennis.

I dont see why all the doom and gloom, grass has been his worst surface since 2012 onwards, in fact there's some improvement this year when he managed to win a title on grass this year, first grass title in five years!

All these suspicions about him are BSs imo, as if he's not aware of Blood passport and stupid enough to let his level dropped so drastically to arouse suspicion?

He's improving gradually and I dont see why the fuss about him losing early at Wimbledon when its the norm these past few years. Nadal had himself to blame for the loss, for pannicking, DF'ing and losing serve, for missing his usual passing shots and missed his chances of breaking serves.

Lets see how his HC season turns out and not jump into conclusion so soon; he may get better results as long as he can avoid the big guys until at least the QF or beyond.

As for Rafa relying on his physical assets, that of speed and power, I mean which player doesnt do that? Fed also needs his speed and fitness, power and precision to do the job during his heydays. He's still relying on them now but moving to the net more often to cut short the points, knowing he can't win a physical war against his younger rivals.

Rafa has to do the same like Fed did as he grows older. Its up to him to figure it out; he has the tools to play a more aggressive game, including moving to the net to finish points there. He needs a mindset change, come to terms with the fact that hes not that young anymore and so needs to adjust the way he plays if he still wants to stay relevant.

He may not dominate anymore even on his favorite surface but may still be good enough to fight it out and winning some. Fed also didnt dominate on grass after 2009 did he? He won his last HC slam at AO2010 age 28 but hasn't reached a HC slam final since. Rafa is now 29, are we expecting him to be better than Fed at 29 even when he has to battle against injuries throughout his career?

I confess that I'm one of the guys who keeps thinking Rafa will come storming back. I haven't learnt my lesson. I still think he will. But, as so ably pointed out by posters above, the odds - fitness, age, growing confidence of opponents, lack of confidence by Rafa - are beginning to be stacked against him.
I've never been a big Rafa fan. But I don't like seeing him languish at 10 in the rankings. I don't like him having to play the big boys in the quarters or even earlier. People were questioning Fed in 2013 and Murray in 2014 and both have recovered. So there is hope for Rafa. He should get a new coach. But, hey, it's not gonna happen, is it.

No new coach, no way. Anyway, would does a new coach bring?

Rafa had told us his fans right at the beginning of 2015 that we shouldnt expect a 2013 kind of comeback. Reaching the QF at AO was already an achievement. As for his clay court results, he wasnt exactly brilliant last year so we shouldnt expect too much from him this year.

Its not like he didnt have his chances when he lost some of those matches that he could have won - vs Fog at Rio and Barcelona; vs Raonic and Verdasco at IW and Miami; vs Stan at Rome in that TB; vs Dolgo at Queen's. What happened was that the clutch Rafa that we known in the past wasn't there during those matches, had he won some of those matches, we may not be questioning his current level and doubting his abilities. He's 2 years older now compared to 2013, certainly age is also catching up with him.

I agree that like both Fed and Murray, Rafa will recover, if not this year then next. May not be a world beater but at least stays competitive and reaches QF and/or beyond.

I dont think he needs a new coach, what he needs is someone who can calm him, instill some confidence and belief in him. Like I said, he faltered in those crucial moments and lost the matches that he could have won, to me thats sign of lacking in confidence.

He needs to keep working to get back his 'feel' for his FH. The way he played at Stuttgart was encouraging, he was hitting his FH well, and I do think he served well there partly because he felt he could rely on his FH after he set up his serve, and so he was able to serve well not worrying about the second or the third shot after serving. In that Stuttgart final vs Troicki, he served 17 aces and won in straight sets. Troicki was playing well there, just like he was playing well to beat Brown at Wimbledon.

Sadly, he reverted back to clay court style tennis at Wimbledon, engaging in long rallies vs Bellucci. When I saw how he played in R1, I knew he was heading for trouble, knowing full well who's waiting for him in the next round. When I looked at the Wimbledon draw, I knew Brown was the one who would give him problems; too bad for Rafa, he failed to get over that hurdle.

How do you know in advance you'll lack confidence?

That's a bit of a giveaway I think. He knew there was something else in play.

What do you mean?

The whole world knows he's lacking in confidence and he himself said so. So, getting in someone to help to instill some belief should be the way, not a new coach to teach him new tactics.

Or are you referring to his comeback in Jan and his 'warning' to his fans? Not difficult to understand is it? That he wasnt able to have his usual training block, so how's he going to replicate his 2013 comeback?? He certainly wont know in advance that he would need to go five sets vs a journeyman, and was bageled by a player he owned all along, certainly not stuff that would give him confidence right??