Australia and Scotland can top pools A & B

As a Scot who grew up in Australia I am a big fan of both countries rugby teams, so my opinion is slightly biased (perhaps deluded in Scotland's case).

As it stands England and SA are favourites to top A and B respectively. Whoever tops pool A potentially gets an easy jump to the semi's if world rankings are anything to go by. Either Samoa or Scotland are favourites to finish second in pool B, both are currently low in IRB rankings. A tough game awaits Pool B's 1st and 2nd finishers.

Pool A, I am convinced Australia will finish top. Despite being convincingly beaten at Eden Park, they are still looking really sharp. Pocock and Hooper both playing in the backrow was deadly when they beat NZ at home. the scrum is suddenly much better than previous Wallabies sides which will count for a lot against England and Wales.

Why can Australia top Pool A? Well they beat the All Blacks, then lost badly to them away. I think Cheika made some poor selection choices for the game at Eden Park and the team just had a bad game. They now have one more game vs USA and then it's WC time. I suspect after the reality check in NZ they will be prepared. England vs Australia is the crunch game, I just can't see Wales beating that Australian side although I think they will push the Wallabies hard.

In the case of Scotland, beating Japan and USA let alone Samoa and SA will be good in the minds of some scots fans after a rather bad run of results and some flakey play. However, despite the drubbing by Ireland where the team played very poorly, every other 6N game was tight and in the balance, unfortunately the results didn't pan out. Why? There was an obvious lack of physicality in the scrums and at the breakdown that gave the other sides an edge, especially towards the end of each match.

So why can Scotland top Pool B? They will have a few new bodies for their WC campaign that will add a bit more physicality and structure to the scots pack. Strauss who is well known for his power in the Pro12, Nel who made an instant difference to the Scottish scrum last weekend when he came off the bench, Hardie, a solid Super15 openside turned Scottish international. These are just small improvements and by no means miracle match winning ones. However, they will definitely give Scotland's game up front a much needed boost which will hopefully allow Scotland to dictate larger parts of 80 minutes. That could be from the bench when the forwards are tiring or in a tight situation where a penalty try could be imminent. Small margins.

In the case of Australia, I think if they just play their natural game and at least match that England and Welsh scrum/set piece, they will be able to find the points to win every game in their pool.

For Scotland it's obviously more complex. SA and Samoa are both physical sides and injuries are a huge concern as Scotland lack strength in depth. Most are fully expecting Scotland to lose against SA or even save their best for the Samoa game so they can at least make the QF's..

I'd like to kill that thought right now.

I have no doubt in my mind that Scotland will put 100% into the SA game and see it as 'the one to win'. If they can play a close to error free game, compete well with the SA pack and give the talented Scottish backline some space to play, it is entirely possible. Newcastle, strong Scottish support, crap weather, definitely possible. Same goes with the match vs Samoa who I think Scotland will beat convincingly.

The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

I think you're falling into a very oft visited trap regarding Scotland fans optimism pre any run of international games based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever. Every year we go through the same cycle of 'dark horse' predictions before the 6 nations and every year we just end up looking silly for not having learnt our lesson. I honestly can't see us beating SA, and think we should treat it as being the massive shock it would be were it to happen rather than to set it out as an expectation which flies in the face of the performance of the side over the last few years.

Or you could get all Mark Dodson and expect us to win the world cup I suppose!

Hey Scotland are on an unbeaten run - anything can happen.

It's as good a time as ever to play SA, probably at their worst for a few years. I can't see past them topping their pool though. They could top it without trying.

LondonTiger wrote:Hey Scotland are on an unbeaten run - anything can happen.

Ooooh, that's a burn!

Completely agree with this.

Apart from Scotland. They can't.

Artful_Dodger wrote:The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

Not overly concerned about bookies knowledge of, and subsequent odds given in rugby. They're too busy creaming themselves over eejit football fans betting on the English Premiership.

Scotland will beat Samoa of that there is no doubt in my mind.

SA there's a chance - If Argentina can dismantle them like they did, there's no reason why Scotland can't. However, had we been in Group A, I would have written to the SRU asking them not to even bother.

if Scotland can beat Italy on Saturday (which I think they will) followed by beating France, then momentum will definitely be in Scotland's favour.

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:Scotland will beat Samoa of that there is no doubt in my mind.

Put your house on it then because you'll probably be about evens.

I'm predicting Scotland to have a respectable showing in this World Cup, but I don't see them beating South Africa and I don't see them beating Australia/England/Wales in the quarters.

I don't think that they will lose to any of those teams heavily, I think they will demonstrate their quality, but I don't see them making the last four and I don't see them topping their group.

Scotland vs Samoa will be juicy and I'm excited for that game. Still think Scotland will win it.

Scottrf wrote:

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:Scotland will beat Samoa of that there is no doubt in my mind.

Put your house on it then because you'll probably be about evens.

My wife won't let me.

To me, this is a weird mix of stating the obvious and the obviously insane.

I would have Australia as slightly below England in their chances to win the group. England are favourites but I would not be surprised at all if Oz topped the group.

In group B, I think it is more likely that we will lose to Samoa than beat both them and the Boks. Whilst I think we will get through the group, we have beaten SA once (I think) in the last decade. As Argentina showed they are not unbeatable but I won't be betting Tattie's house on it either.

Is this thread just a way to bring in the Aussies, English, Welsh, Scots, Saffas and Samoans on the board for one big punch up

In terms of Scotland vs. the boks there is more chance backing a 3 legged rocking horse at Ascot. It won't happen.

The boks got beat by Argentina yes... they also beat the ABs less than 12 months ago and were leading them this year until 60 mins. The boks are a world class unit, they lost to AUS in AUS in a final play video replay. They've not had a great early season but I think they are looking very sharp.

Scotland will have a dilemma anyhow. Do they go into the SA match full guns blazing and maybe pick up an injury for the crunch match 7 days later or do they rest certain players?
In some ways I think they should play a full team as a good performance can raise their morale no end but I have a feeling they'll play a 1.5 team.

bsando it's good to be optimistic but as themildlyfranticllama has said - we've heard this so many times about Scotland. It's about time Scotland live up to the dark horse billing they are constantly given.

The biggest worry for Scotland will be keeping key players fit - I guess that's the same for every side but some sides can absorb injuries better.

Pool B will be a bruising pool with Samoa and South Africa. Even USA and Japan shouldn't be underestimated

Some sides have been caught out when underestimating opposition - Scotland could do the same to sides they see inferior to themselves.

You would hope that Scotland wouldn't fall into that trap but some inspired performances from USA's best players against a weakened and complacent Scotland might be enough to cause a scare if not pull off a win.

Artful_Dodger wrote:The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

The bookies have it about right in my opinion. We have been poor this year and the WC squad has a cobbled together feel to it with a number of players very raw from a Scotland perspective, and several coming back from long term injuries. That we are contemplating Nel, Strauss and Hardie as 1st XV players for this World Cup tells you all you need to know.

We should beat Japan and USA with something to spare. If we don't then the decision to grant Cotter a long term contract will look really silly. But we are big underdogs against South Africa and I think the bookies are right to have Samoa as slight favourites. They'll have had plenty time to prepare so the usual rustiness you can rely on against the Pacific Islanders won't be there. They'll be conditioned and well prepared.

Its a possible upset - Scotland south Africa - but at long odds. I would be astonished as well as being delighted tho if it happened.

I was thinking about this the other day. Very much depends on our other two warm ups. I'll believe we can if we put in a convincing win over Italy and beat France.

Love the optimism though! I don't think it's impossible, just improbable. I'll be more comfortable once we've got the Japan game done, or depressed... I home the former! I hope Japan do get a scalp as long as it's Samoa, not us!!

I'm thinking Scotland will rest players against SA in readiness for the Samoa game (though Samoa should win what will probably be a close encounter). I think that group will finish in seeding order, but Japan or USA will fancy their chances against both Samoa and Scotland. SA to win the group at a canter.

Guys just a word of warning, forget what you have seen from South Afrcia in November last year and June this year.

You look at results and then dismiss what South Africa will be capable of when the RWC starts.

Injuries has played a big part in the RC this year. We gave New Zealand hell for 60 minutes, then had to go to uncontested scrums when we had the advantage inside their 22.

Against Australia we were dominating the contact area, had a nudge in the scrums and then Meyer made very poorly timed subs.

Argentina was similar to the Wales match last year when our European players weren't available, poor attitude and listless performances.

That inconsistencies won't be evident when the RWC starts.

They will have attitude, focus and motivation.

Biltong
Unfortunately from a Scottish perspective I think you are right re the Boks, although the racial quota system could see you come a cropper at the later stages of the cup. Mvovo and Hendricks are worthy of a squad place, but I'm not so sure about the quality of some of the potential quota players in the forwards? Or is this issue unlikely to affect the composition of the squad for this competition?

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

Not overly concerned about bookies knowledge of, and subsequent odds given in rugby. They're too busy creaming themselves over eejit football fans betting on the English Premiership.

Scotland will beat Samoa of that there is no doubt in my mind.

SA there's a chance - If Argentina can dismantle them like they did, there's no reason why Scotland can't. However, had we been in Group A, I would have written to the SRU asking them not to even bother.


I
if Scotland can beat Italy on Saturday (which I think they will) followed by beating France, then momentum will definitely be in Scotland's favour.

Tat tie, as a regular punter on rugby I can assure you the people setting the odds in the bookies know what they are at, the spreads they offer more often than not are very accurate

brennomac wrote:

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

Not overly concerned about bookies knowledge of, and subsequent odds given in rugby. They're too busy creaming themselves over eejit football fans betting on the English Premiership.

Scotland will beat Samoa of that there is no doubt in my mind.

SA there's a chance - If Argentina can dismantle them like they did, there's no reason why Scotland can't. However, had we been in Group A, I would have written to the SRU asking them not to even bother.


I
if Scotland can beat Italy on Saturday (which I think they will) followed by beating France, then momentum will definitely be in Scotland's favour.

Tat tie, as a regular punter on rugby I can assure you the people setting the odds in the bookies know what they are at, the spreads they offer more often than not are very accurate

Absolutely correct. I've recently started to turn over a profit from my bets through a professional gambler giving me tips. Any odds the bookies offer, be it on rugby or anything else are incredibly well reasoned and researched. If the bookies are offering just over 1/1 on SA topping the group, they don't think there is a snow balls chance in hell of it not happening.

sensisball wrote:Biltong
Unfortunately from a Scottish perspective I think you are right re the Boks, although the racial quota system could see you come a cropper at the later stages of the cup. Mvovo and Hendricks are worthy of a squad place, but I'm not so sure about the quality of some of the potential quota players in the forwards? Or is this issue unlikely to affect the composition of the squad for this competition?

Sensisball, some news in regards to the quota, the Sportsminister retracted from the quota demand, they copped enough flack for the disaster of the cricket world cup when they forced the Proteas to include Vernon Philander in the semi final when Kyle Abbot was traring evryone apart.

He simply said everyone must be patient in regards to transformation.

My first reaction was to ask the barman to stop serving you.
However, while I think SA will top our group and that Samoa could beat us, I think Samoa may not have as much strength in depth as we think and that they could come a cropper against Japan or, less likely, the USandA.
Biltong - what game(s) will you play your full strength team for? I don't know if 2nd and 3rd can be decided by "points difference" if the points total is the same so who SA trake seriously could impact on the final table.

Biltong

thanks for the update  re the quota issue: bad news for us Scots!

ps. didnt Lambie look really assured in Argentina? He looks a lot stronger than last season but it doesnt seem to have reduced his mobility at all.

Any update on Vermuelen's fitness?

It sounds like Vermeulen will miss the first match, I think Meyer will want to get gim to start with 30 minutes in the second pool match and work his fitness up for the knock out phases

Yeah personally I think it is too soon for Pollard (experience) to control things this world cup, and Lambie is the answer.

But we all know ameyer has a hard on for Morne Steyn

InjuredYetAgain wrote:My first reaction was to ask the barman to stop serving you.
However, while I think SA will top our group and that Samoa could beat us, I think Samoa may not have as much strength in depth as we think and that they could come a cropper against Japan or, less likely, the USandA.
Biltong - what game(s) will you play your full strength team for? I don't know if 2nd and 3rd can be decided by "points difference" if the points total is the same so who SA trake seriously could impact on the final table.

Meyer will definitely play his strongest team against Scotland and Samoa. He still has a few injury concerns with players who won't be ready for the first pool match though.

Hmm. Interesting, a bit surprising but mostly concerning. I really did think that you would go full-power against Samoa but reckoned that you would rest a good fee of your really important players against us.
Do you think that your strongest team will play twice for match-practice more than being too worried about the quality of the opposition?

If I was a betting man I'd say Samoa will beat Scotland. Samoa have better backs and Scotland haven't got much of a pack.
Kahn Fotuali'i is one of the best scrum halves in the world, both Pisi brothers also play for Northampton. Most of their players play for pretty prestigious clubs.

I think Australia will lose to England, but will beat Wales, the question is can Wales upset England?

InjuredYetAgain wrote:Hmm. Interesting, a bit surprising but mostly concerning. I really did think that you would go full-power against Samoa but reckoned that you would rest a good fee of your really important players against us.
Do you think that your strongest team will play twice for match-practice more than being too worried about the quality of the opposition?

Because of the disruption the Springboks had with injuries this year I think Meyer will want the best combinations to gel and therefor continuity will be important to him.

Despite Scotland's recent run of results, I wouldn't be writing us off totally.

Bulk of our squad comes from Glasgow who won the Pro 12 by destroying Munster.  

We've got pace in the backs plus good footballers and a rather large pack who should be competitive at the set-piece.

If we can keep our key players fit (Gray, Strauss, Russell, Bennett, Seymour, Hogg) we'll be a handful.

Just a heads up but the last time Scotland beat one of the old big 8 countries was 24th of feb 2013, with a 12-8 win against Ireland. More than 2 and a half years ago.

Beat Wales or France first then start dreaming of taking on South Africa.

Artful_Dodger wrote:The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

Those odds can't possibly be right. 1/1 means a 50% chance of winning the pool (slightly less actually, as bookies only make money by having odds that add up to more than 100%, but in that area). Samoa and Scotland would have to be a lot shorter than 13/1 and 15/1 to make up the remaining 50% (along with the minnows in the pool). Did you mean South Africa are 1/10?

probably a typo

SA 1/12
Samoa 10/1
Scotland 12/1

off betfair

Remember when I posted this? Pool B just got real yo

Yep...but now you have to add another name to your Title:

Australia and Scotland and Japan can top pools A&B

Sorry secretfly but the bokkes played a clueless game. They let Japan back into the game time and time again. Scotland, I guarantee you will not let Japan play like they did versus SA.

Their win over SA was unreal, and I am worried about Wednesday's game. But 4 day recovery before playing a fresh XV Scottish side whose last game was a tight loss to France is going to be tough for them. I fully expect Japan to beat Samoa and USA but I think it might be tough turnaround for Japan to beat Scotland straight after putting everything into the bokkes game.

SecretFly wrote:Yep...but now you have to add another name to your Title:

Australia and Scotland and Japan can top pools A&B

How about can Samoa nd Japan top their group?

This pool has four contenders... Unless the USA pull something out the bag???

bsando wrote:Sorry secretfly but the bokkes played a clueless game. They let Japan back into the game time and time again. Scotland, I guarantee you will not let Japan play like they did versus SA.

Their win over SA was unreal, and I am worried about Wednesday's game. But 4 day recovery before playing a fresh XV Scottish side whose last game was a tight loss to France is going to be tough for them. I fully expect Japan to beat Samoa and USA but I think it might be tough turnaround for Japan to beat Scotland straight after putting everything into the bokkes game.

Yes, you'd tend to look on things like we usually do, bsando.  "Gutsy, stunning performance from a minnow to take down a Giant..... but unfortunately that was their one hit and were pretty much paying the price of the effort in all other games.  That one upset was their final, but quick turn-arounds and tiring progressively through each game just unfortunately was always going to take the steam out of them."

That's the general theory that goes with these big upset games - but I'm not sure Japan will follow the script.  It was much more than Bokkes playing cluelesly.  That Japan had everything - yes passion.  But also physicality that drove big SAs back, smartness that evaded some tight defence structures at times... a rolling maul that seemed to have a ferocity that was unstoppable and the Bokkes never really got their hands around it or figured out ways to disrupt it.  Plus fitness.  These guys look like they have oodles of fitness.  Yes, they'll be tired but they weren't struggling to stay in the game at the end, they were struggling to keep it going as long as they needed to at the pace they wanted to keep it at.

That Japan team played to win not to upset.  They weren't planning to upset with passion, they played a game that was designed to win using tactics.   If they brought that intensity to any side again, the opponent might have a very tough 80 trying to hold them off or hold them out.

Yes, it might all implode now and it might indeed have been their final.... but looking at Jones's calm content face, it seems he's planning more.

thomh wrote:

Artful_Dodger wrote:The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.

You might want to stick some money on Scotland at those odds if you think they are going to top the group.  Bookies don't even think the Scots will get out of it.  Very little in it between England and Australia, Wales not that far behind either.

Those odds can't possibly be right. 1/1 means a 50% chance of winning the pool (slightly less actually, as bookies only make money by having odds that add up to more than 100%, but in that area). Samoa and Scotland would have to be a lot shorter than 13/1 and 15/1 to make up the remaining 50% (along with the minnows in the pool). Did you mean South Africa are 1/10?

I didn't go after the decimal points, South Africa were 1.015/1.or something equally silly.  In other words you'd have needed to be backing well into the thousands to be making any sort of return.  As I said on another post, bookies will now be very worried.

Bookies still think SA will win it by the way.

They now have SA 1.33/1, Scotland 5/1 and Samoa 8.5/1

The thing is, Scotland (or Samoa) can lose to SA and still have an outside chance of winning the pool. But crucially, South Africa picked up two bonus points from their defeat.

Shifty wrote:If I was a betting man I'd say Samoa will beat Scotland.  Samoa have better backs and Scotland haven't got much of a pack.  
Kahn Fotuali'i is one of the best scrum halves in the world, both Pisi brothers also play for Northampton.

Errmmm have you seen Scotland play?

If our forwards can impose themselves in a way the 'boks didn't against Japan, I think we can beat Samoa. Parity upfront could lead to problems. Yes we have good backs but not the explosiveness that, say, the Samoan wingers have to turn a game

[quote="Tattie Scones RRN"][quote="Artful_Dodger"]The bookies have South Africa 1/1 Samoa 13/1 and Scotland 15/1 top top pool B.



Scotland will beat Samoa of that there is no doubt in my mind.


Like there was no doubt in my mind that SA would beat Japan no problem.......Don't be so sure about Scotland will beat Samoa.

Well Samoa gave you a start by selecting Alex Tuilagi and not Sinotti!

TJ wrote:

Shifty wrote:If I was a betting man I'd say Samoa will beat Scotland.  Samoa have better backs and Scotland haven't got much of a pack.  
Kahn Fotuali'i is one of the best scrum halves in the world, both Pisi brothers also play for Northampton.  

Errmmm  have you seen Scotland play?

Sadly yes, I've seen little else but total garbage since 1999

Japan, Samoa and USA are decent teams.  I thought USA would be a team who surprises a lot of people but it appears it's going to be Japan.  Scotland beat Italy twice and suddenly everyone is jizzing in their pants and thinks they can top the group?

Japan beating South Africa has potentially put the cat amongst the pigeons but it would be a shock to me if Scotland survives this pool.

24th February 2013, Is the last time Scotland beat any of the old big 8 nations with a 12-8 win over Ireland, the date now is 20th September 2015, more than 2 and a half years ago!
Since then they have beaten Japan, Usa, Canada, Tonga and Italy.  I'd like Scotland to actually accomplish something, anything even, before anyone talks up their chances.  

Samoa also handed Scotland their backsides the last time they went to Scotland to play as well. While the 2 games before that were decided by 3 points or less.