Pool of Death, half way through...

by No9 Sun 27 Sep 2015, 10:56 pm

If Wales beat Fiji (and that's a big IF, with the injuries and a 4 day turn-round) and Australia beat England then Wales and Australia play for the top spot, and the Pool A finale is nothing more than a damp squib.

But, its still all "ifs and buts"...

So, from the poll, who do you know think is heading home from the Pool of death..

by No9 Sun 27 Sep 2015, 10:58 pm

I'm going for England to beat Australia, setting up a knock out for Australia and Wales. I have to go for a Welsh win (my heart says it), which would put England on top on points diff, but Aus losing 2 games and getting the plane home.

by donglewood Sun 27 Sep 2015, 10:59 pm

Wales will beat Fiji but not get a bonus point.

Australia will lose to England, but get two bonus points.

Australia will beat Wales with a bonus.

by Heaf Mon 28 Sep 2015, 12:09 am

No9 wrote:I'm going for England to beat Australia, setting up a knock out for Australia and Wales. I have to go for a Welsh win (my heart says it), which would put England on top on points diff, but Aus losing 2 games and getting the plane home.

Are you going for Fiji to beat Wales then as that's the only way Wales could beat Austria and not be clear at the top?

by No9 Mon 28 Sep 2015, 12:55 am

Heaf wrote:
No9 wrote:I'm going for England to beat Australia, setting up a knock out for Australia and Wales. I have to go for a Welsh win (my heart says it), which would put England on top on points diff, but Aus losing 2 games and getting the plane home.

Are you going for Fiji to beat Wales then as that's the only way Wales could beat Austria and not be clear at the top?

Nope.. I believe...

Wales beat Fiji No BP
Eng beat Aus >7 No losing BP for Aus
Aus beat Wales <7 No BP for Aus but losing BP for Wales
Eng beat Uruguay with BP

Would give:-

Pool A Pts
England 15
Wales 14
Australia 13

by Guest Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:21 am

No9 wrote:I have to go for a Welsh win (my heart says it), which would put England on top on points diff, but Aus losing 2 games and getting the plane home.

by Geordie Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:25 am

We're never going to beat Australia. Their pack is functioning and their backs look like their cruising.

Australia will beat both England and Wales and England will be out.

In fact I believe they genuinely could win the whole thing.

by TightHEAD Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:27 am

England are home already!

by Heaf Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:28 am

Thanks Fuzzy that's what was confusing me too as it didn't add up ... No9 I hope your 2nd analysis is correct Smile

- big call however.

by GunsGerms Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:34 am

I think England will top the group and Australia will come second. Wales may come second if they get a BP against Fiji because I think they will lose to Oz but Oz will lose to England.

Its a really exciting group.

by RubyGuby Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:51 am

Australia - 18 pts.
Wales - 13 pts.
England - 11 pts.

thumbsup

by lostinwales Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:52 am

GunsGerms wrote:I think England will top the group and Australia will come second. Wales may come second if they get a BP against Fiji because I think they will lose to Oz but Oz will lose to England.

Its a really exciting group.

If England can keep playing like the did in the first half vs Wales they could go a long way. If they play like in the 2nd half they should start packing now.

by **rodders** Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:54 am

I think Australia will beat England and top the group. I think the pressure on England now is massive whereas Australia and Wales have the buffer of being able to lose.

The Wallabies look in very good form although this England side do have a performance in them and do tend to bounce back from defeats - head says Cheika is too cute for Lancaster and England have a selection headache now at 10 and midfield.

I don't think England can dominate up front and with Joseph out they would come off second best in a wide game too I think, with Australia's pace and back row.

They should stick with Burgess and target Gitau and the 10/12 channel is their only hope.

Wales I think are not guaranteed to beat Fiji with all their injuries but if the do they are home and dry I think.

Will the winner up end up playing the springboks though - good chance I think....

by TightHEAD Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:55 am

Still all to play for.

I think part the reason England beefed up their team was to cause damage to wales just in case they did lose, a fully rested Fiji with a point to prove could be interesting, if only the game was at a neutral venue!

by Gooseberry Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:58 am

What really throws a wild card in is the sheer volume of injuries in Wales back line, coupled with their dubious front row resources.
Fiji beating them is not beyond possibility, they gave a full strength Aus a tough game at least.

If that happens it blows things wide open again and all bets are off.

Wales do have the whip hand at the moment though. I just dont see them progressing very far simply down to their dwindling resources and the pressure that puts on the regular starters espeically after what will have been a very tough pool.

by Geordie Mon 28 Sep 2015, 10:58 am

rodders wrote:I think Australia will beat England and top the group. I think the pressure on England now is massive whereas Australia and Wales have the buffer of being able to lose.

The Wallabies look in very good form although this England side do have a performance in them and do tend to bounce back from defeats - head says Cheika is too cute for Lancaster and England have a selection headache now at 10 and midfield.

I don't think England can dominate up front and with Joseph out they would come off second best in a wide game too I think, with Australia's pace and back row.

They should stick with Burgess and target Gitau and the 10/12 channel is their only hope.

Wales I think are not guaranteed to beat Fiji with all their injuries but if the do they are home and dry I think.

Will the winner up end up playing the springboks though - good chance I think....

On the contrary its very clear.....

10 Ford
12 Burgess
13 Joseph is apparently fit again...if not Slade. But Slade MUST be on the bench minimum.

by rozakthegoon Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:03 am

GeordieFalcon wrote:
rodders wrote:I think Australia will beat England and top the group. I think the pressure on England now is massive whereas Australia and Wales have the buffer of being able to lose.

The Wallabies look in very good form although this England side do have a performance in them and do tend to bounce back from defeats - head says Cheika is too cute for Lancaster and England have a selection headache now at 10 and midfield.

I don't think England can dominate up front and with Joseph out they would come off second best in a wide game too I think, with Australia's pace and back row.

They should stick with Burgess and target Gitau and the 10/12 channel is their only hope.

Wales I think are not guaranteed to beat Fiji with all their injuries but if the do they are home and dry I think.

Will the winner up end up playing the springboks though - good chance I think....

On the contrary its very clear.....

10 Ford
12 Burgess
13 Joseph is apparently fit again...if not Slade. But Slade MUST be on the bench minimum.

got to be this.

by Gooseberry Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:12 am

So Farrell nailling kicks and making tackles that Ford wouldnt have ben able to counts for nothing?

England arent chansing bonus points, they are chasing a win.

Its intersting too to see how fast Barrits stock has dropped since he got his place back. He had breifly gained the status of "only obvious choice" at 12 for England by dint on not being in the side for a year or so. Now hes back to "drop him from the bench".
I pity young Slade if he does get the nod.

by **rodders** Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:12 am

i think they have to back Farrell at 10 now. A second knee jerk selection change would be a disaster.

Kidney made a similar mess with Sexton and ROG in 2011 - you have to have a clear 1st choice no 10 not game by game rotation, or drop at the first sign of trouble.

Ford has been handled badly and to make the same mistake with Farrell would be crazy I think.

by Geordie Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:14 am

Gooseberry wrote:So Farrell nailling kicks and making tackles that Ford wouldnt have ben able to counts for nothing?

England arent chansing bonus points, they are chasing a win.

Its intersting too to see how fast Barrits stock has dropped since he got his place back. He had breifly gained the status of "only obvious choice" at 12 for England by dint on not being in the side for a year or so. Now hes back to "drop him from the bench".
I pity young Slade if he does get the nod.

I was one of the most vocal to have barritt in...but ive held my hand up...he's simply not good enough. We have to move on...

As for Farrell...harsh but yes Ford with big Burgess outside him looks a better option in my opinion...

by LordDowlais Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:16 am

GeordieFalcon wrote:In fact I believe they genuinely could win the whole thing.

Yep, I agree with that. Australia are the only side left that look like they can beat the All Blacks. They have parity now in the scrum, and they have the best backs in the world.

But having said that, I wish I put a tenner on France now.

by Geordie Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:16 am

rodders wrote:i think they have to back Farrell at 10 now. A second knee jerk selection change would be a disaster.

Kidney made a similar mess with Sexton and ROG in 2011 - you have to have a clear 1st choice no 10 not game by game rotation, or drop at the first sign of trouble.

Ford has been handled badly and to make the same mistake with Farrell would be crazy I think.

Errors like these litter Lancasters reign though....

by Gooseberry Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:17 am

Devils advocating again...his selection for the Wales game wasnt so much a knee jerk reaction as a horses for courses pick. England were trying to negate the opposition and win the game buy attrtirtion (ha!)
If they feel that they cant do that so easily against Australias flair then they might reasonably change tack back and fight fire with fire.
Thats not knee jerking, its making tactical changes for specific games ...aka common sense. Pick players to do a specific job for a specific game which has specific requirements.

The rest though I agree with. It woudl always be portrayed as flip flopping , panic, and a results based selection regardless of the reality.

Whichever does get picked they still have to deal with the centres outside them and Robshaws brain.

by Gooseberry Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:18 am

LordDowlais wrote:
GeordieFalcon wrote:In fact I believe they genuinely could win the whole thing.

Yep, I agree with that. Australia are the only side left that look like they can beat the All Blacks. They have parity now in the scrum, and they have the best backs in the world.

Wales should be terrified of Fiji then

by 2ndtimeround Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:21 am

With the winner of the group likely to face Scotland and Ireland as a route then what better incentive is there to go on from the great win on Saturday, its a huge ask but as Welsh fans we can now at least dream.

Wales to win both
England to take it out their frustrations on Australia.
The 1st time ever for 3 NH teams in the Semi finals.
And a rematch at Twickenham the perfect finale.

by **rodders** Mon 28 Sep 2015, 11:24 am

2ndtimeround wrote:With the winner of the group likely to face Scotland and Ireland as a route then what better incentive is there to go on from the great win on Saturday, its a huge ask but as Welsh fans we can now at least dream.

Wales to win both
England to take it out their frustrations on Australia.
The 1st time ever for 3 NH teams in the Semi finals.
And a rematch at Twickenham the perfect finale.

Gavin Henson to nail the winning goal? If Brains made finals.... angel

by 2ndtimeround Mon 28 Sep 2015, 12:37 pm

rodders wrote:
2ndtimeround wrote:With the winner of the group likely to face Scotland and Ireland as a route then what better incentive is there to go on from the great win on Saturday, its a huge ask but as Welsh fans we can now at least dream.

Wales to win both
England to take it out their frustrations on Australia.
The 1st time ever for 3 NH teams in the Semi finals.
And a rematch at Twickenham the perfect finale.

Gavin Henson to nail the winning goal? If Brains made finals....

of course, with a penalty from inside our own half.

the servers on here would go into meltdown. lol.

by Geordie Mon 28 Sep 2015, 12:53 pm

2ndtimeround wrote:With the winner of the group likely to face Scotland and Ireland as a route then what better incentive is there to go on from the great win on Saturday, its a huge ask but as Welsh fans we can now at least dream.

Wales to win both
England to take it out their frustrations on Australia.
The 1st time ever for 3 NH teams in the Semi finals.
And a rematch at Twickenham the perfect finale.

Anyone thinking THATS an easy route hasn't watched their games.

Ireland are cantering along nicely...and can keep it tight or as they showed on Sunday...can open it up. It will take a good side to beat them...and they could go along way in this tournament.

by GavinDragon Mon 28 Sep 2015, 12:58 pm

GeordieFalcon wrote:
2ndtimeround wrote:With the winner of the group likely to face Scotland and Ireland as a route then what better incentive is there to go on from the great win on Saturday, its a huge ask but as Welsh fans we can now at least dream.

Wales to win both
England to take it out their frustrations on Australia.
The 1st time ever for 3 NH teams in the Semi finals.
And a rematch at Twickenham the perfect finale.

Anyone thinking THATS an easy route hasn't watched their games.

Ireland are cantering along nicely...and can keep it tight or as they showed on Sunday...can open it up. It will take a good side to beat them...and they could go along way in this tournament.

there are no easy routes when you reach the QF. I - and I am probably not alone - have been quite surprised by how competitive most of the so called minows have been.

by 2ndtimeround Mon 28 Sep 2015, 1:19 pm

GeordieFalcon wrote:
2ndtimeround wrote:With the winner of the group likely to face Scotland and Ireland as a route then what better incentive is there to go on from the great win on Saturday, its a huge ask but as Welsh fans we can now at least dream.

Wales to win both
England to take it out their frustrations on Australia.
The 1st time ever for 3 NH teams in the Semi finals.
And a rematch at Twickenham the perfect finale.

Anyone thinking THATS an easy route hasn't watched their games.

Ireland are cantering along nicely...and can keep it tight or as they showed on Sunday...can open it up. It will take a good side to beat them...and they could go along way in this tournament.

Well as the other option is a QF against South Africa and a SF against New Zealand I think I'll stick with hoping for Scotland and Ireland.

by majesticimperialman Mon 28 Sep 2015, 1:20 pm

England have a lot of hard work to do for this week's game. However they have beaten Australia before, but the again they have beaten Wales before, but this is the World Cup so all the pressure now is on England.

If England do win this week, please note i did say (IF) they win this week then they should top the pool. They should beat Uruguay.

Wales and Fiji, what with all the injuries that Wales have it is not going to be easy for them.

Then Wales v Australia???? I cannot remember the last time Wales beat Australia with their full XV, And with all the injuries they have it is going to be a tough "ASK".

I would like too see England beat Asutralia this week. BUT, it is a tough ask at the moment.

So England might be going home this week( if they do not play for the full) Eighty minutes.
Unlike last week when the switched off in the last 10/15 minutes of the game.

by alive555 Mon 28 Sep 2015, 1:23 pm

My best guess

WALES

3RD ROUND
wales to beat Fiji .
Total points either 13 or 14 (depending whether they get BP)

4TH ROUND
Lose to Aus (again) So total max 14, BUT 15 if they get bonus.

ENGLAND

3RD ROUND
Eng (maybe?) to beat Aus by a point with no bonus.
Total Points 10.

4TH ROUND
Eng to thrash urg by 70
Total points 15

Decided by wins against each other, then point differential.

So wales need to get a winning BP vs Fiji or a losing BP vs Aus and they are through

wales in driving seat Sorry

by flyhalffactory Mon 28 Sep 2015, 1:39 pm

alive555

3rd Match Wales could win 4pts or win BP 5pts
4th Match Wales could lose, score 4 tries and get within 7 (or is it 5) pts of Australia and get 2 LBPs

That could be a min 13 pts if they beat Fiji and lose against Oz, but a max 16 pts if they do the same.

I think!

by rozakthegoon Mon 28 Sep 2015, 2:02 pm

Gooseberry wrote:So Farrell nailling kicks and making tackles that Ford wouldnt have ben able to counts for nothing?

England arent chansing bonus points, they are chasing a win.

Its intersting too to see how fast Barrits stock has dropped since he got his place back. He had breifly gained the status of "only obvious choice" at 12 for England by dint on not being in the side for a year or so. Now hes back to "drop him from the bench".
I pity young Slade if he does get the nod.

Farrell lacked discipline. Barritt looks out of sorts. If he was playing as he has in thepast, holding the line, blasting people, making few if any errors, he would be forgiven his lack of go forward. Also, a couple of people who have been to the matches have commented that he doesnt seemt to talk to the players around him, if he is supposed to be the midfield organiser surely he should be constantly talking?

by rozakthegoon Mon 28 Sep 2015, 2:05 pm

rodders wrote:i think they have to back Farrell at 10 now. A second knee jerk selection change would be a disaster.

Kidney made a similar mess with Sexton and ROG in 2011 - you have to have a clear 1st choice no 10 not game by game rotation, or drop at the first sign of trouble.

Ford has been handled badly and to make the same mistake with Farrell would be crazy I think.

i dont think it was a knee jerk response though was it? It looked pre-meditated to have a heavy tackler and big kicker against wales. its not really a dropping of a player if its a tactical change (or not in the same sense as you are shiiite we are replacing you) i think if we won against wales we would still have seen ford back in for Oz. Who knows what we will see happen now if SL is in a panic though, which he might be, he is only human

EDITTTTTT. sorry gooseburry already answered this above and ive just repeated it. oops.

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