Pro12 general

by **profitius** Mon Nov 02, 2015 11:43 am

6 games into the season already.

Zebre have broken 2 records at the weekend. First time they won 2 in a row and first time they got a 4 try bonus point. clap

There's already an 8 point gap created between
Glasgow in 7th and Dragons in 8th.

Scarlets and Connacht were the bottom 2 in 09/10 season (pre Italians) but top 2 now.

The bottom 3 Welsh sides have 4 wins between them. All coming against Italian opposition and Ospreys have made their worst start ever and are 19 pts behind Scarlets.

With the internationals now back, expect to see some teams rise up the table.

by **RDW** Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:20 pm

From an Edinburgh PoV I'm gutted we lost to Zebre away as we would have been 5 from 6 and LBP from Connacht - an excellent start that would have set us up nicely for the rest of the season.

Seeing what Zebre did to the Blues made me a bit less annoyed at the result - as bad as the Blues were, Zebre obviously have a decent core to their time now that they have their internationalists back.

Fair play to the Scarlets - an outstanding start to the season, and with real class added to their squad in DTH they could be looking at Top 4 if they can keep it up.

by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:22 pm

The mid table battle for remaining top 6 places was great last season, with Scarlets, Connacht and Edinburgh fighting it out. It's shaping up to be even more intense this season, with Scarlets and Connacht sitting on top of the tree, Edinburgh also getting off to a great start and Osprey's scraping bottom. Ospreys can still do it, but they, and possibly one of the expected top of the table sides might well lose out to all three.

by **RDW** Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:24 pm

That's the big question - if the Scarlets and Connacht carry this on into the Top 6 which of the traditional 'Big 5' will miss out?

Can't look any further than the Ospreys just now but they still have class in their squad to get up the table.

Going to be very interesting!

by brennomac Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:39 pm

Can someone refresh my memory, does Pro12 have 6 or 7 places in the European Cup.

Highlight for me so far is how well Connacht are doing - Lam is doing an extraordinary job. OK, Connacht only had two players in the Irish panel for RWC but still being second with 5 wins out of 6 and lots of BPs put them in a strong position to challenge for a Euro place. A really good back line with O'Halloran, Aki, Healy, Carty, Marmion - and a strong pack organised by Muldoon...best opportunity Connacht are going to have to push to the next level.

Leinster finally looked good at the weekend although Treviso were truly sh1te. The Munster-Ulster game was great fun but Foley and Doak will both be pulling their hair at the quality of their defences.

Other highlight is how bad Ospreys have been - again they lost a load of players to the Welsh RWC squad but still you'd expect better from what has been definitely the best Welsh team of the past few seasons. Didn't see any other games and haven't seen any of Scarlets games (tho will see them v Leinster next weekend) but by all accounts they're are looking very good.

by **RDW** Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:42 pm

Nineteen clubs will qualify automatically for the 2016/17 European Rugby Champions Cup in the following ways :.

• PRO12: The seven highest-ranked clubs based on their finishing positions in the league. The seven qualifiers must include at least one club from each of Ireland, Italy, Scotland and Wales.

• Top 14: The six highest-ranked clubs based on their finishing positions in the league.

• Aviva Premiership: The six highest-ranked clubs based on their finishing positions in the league.

To facilitate Rugby World Cup 2015 and to avoid fixture congestion, there will be no play-offs for the 2016/17 Champions Cup with the 20th place in the tournament going to the winner of the 2016 Challenge Cup.

If the winner of the 2016 Challenge Cup is already qualified, that club will earn a place in the 2016/17 Champions Cup for the highest-ranked club from its league which has not already qualified.

So the winner of the Challenge Cup this seasons gets a place. Given that an Italian team will likely finish outside the top 7 then it will be the top 6 from the Pro 12.

If a Pro 12 team wins the Challenge Cup then 7th place will get it.

by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:49 pm

RDW_Scotland wrote:That's the big question - if the Scarlets and Connacht carry this on into the Top 6 which of the traditional 'Big 5' will miss out?

Can't look any further than the Ospreys just now but they still have class in their squad to get up the table.

Going to be very interesting!

I think Ospreys have the quality to fight their way back into contention, but they really can't afford to lose many more games. They have a nice run of games now until they meet Edinburgh. That game, along with their game v Connacht could decide if they make it into top 6. It's still possible that all three of Edinburgh, Connacht and Scarlets make the top 6, and so Ospreys and one of Glasgow, Ulster, Munster or Leinster could lose out. All these sides will have to be on their toes, and look to win as many away games as possible. Ulster's away form has been poor, and if we want to ensure a top 6 finish, we will have to turn that around.

by **George Carlin** Mon Nov 02, 2015 12:51 pm

Absolutely no luck involved with how well Scarlets and Connacht are doing. They've both been excellent.

We need to haul them back and a lot of international players will be coming back next week for a hit out prior to European competition starting again.

by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:08 pm

George Carlin wrote:Absolutely no luck involved with how well Scarlets and Connacht are doing. They've both been excellent.

We need to haul them back and a lot of international players will be coming back next week for a hit out prior to European competition starting again.

No luck at all. All of Edinburgh, Connacht and Scarlets have been improving, and all will be very difficult to beat at home. Ulster have already fallen to Edinburgh and Scarlets.

Realistically the top 6 will come from Glasgow, Leinster, Munster, Ospreys, Ulster, Scarlets, Connacht and Edinburgh. So two of those eight, with Ospreys having a mountain to climb. Right now I would say it will be Ospreys, and one of those last four that will likely miss out, but the season has a long way to go, and the depth of these teams will be sorely tested.

Edit: Scarlets just have to finish above Ospreys to qualify through. So assuming Ospreys fail to make top 6, or above Scarlets, Scarlets will go through regardless of making the top 6. So I think one of Ulster, Connacht or Edinburgh would likely miss out.

by marty2086 Mon Nov 02, 2015 3:57 pm

Munchkin wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Absolutely no luck involved with how well Scarlets and Connacht are doing. They've both been excellent.

We need to haul them back and a lot of international players will be coming back next week for a hit out prior to European competition starting again.

No luck at all. All of Edinburgh, Connacht and Scarlets have been improving, and all will be very difficult to beat at home. Ulster have already fallen to Edinburgh and Scarlets.

Realistically the top 6 will come from Glasgow, Leinster, Munster, Ospreys, Ulster, Scarlets, Connacht and Edinburgh. So two of those eight, with Ospreys having a mountain to climb. Right now I would say it will be Ospreys, and one of those last four that will likely miss out, but the season has a long way to go, and the depth of these teams will be sorely tested.

Edit: Scarlets just have to finish above Ospreys to qualify through. So assuming Ospreys fail to make top 6, or above Scarlets, Scarlets will go through regardless of making the top 6. So I think one of Ulster, Connacht or Edinburgh would likely miss out.

Thankfully Ulster have their Irish internationals to come back with Henderson, Payne, Bowe and Olding all coming back at some stage through the season which should hopefully give the team a boost at different stages through the season Fingers Crossed

by **RDW** Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:01 pm

Is Bowe's season not pretty much over?

by marty2086 Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:17 pm

I was being optimistic about his return

by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:25 pm

marty2086 wrote:
Munchkin wrote:
George Carlin wrote:Absolutely no luck involved with how well Scarlets and Connacht are doing. They've both been excellent.

We need to haul them back and a lot of international players will be coming back next week for a hit out prior to European competition starting again.

No luck at all. All of Edinburgh, Connacht and Scarlets have been improving, and all will be very difficult to beat at home. Ulster have already fallen to Edinburgh and Scarlets.

Realistically the top 6 will come from Glasgow, Leinster, Munster, Ospreys, Ulster, Scarlets, Connacht and Edinburgh. So two of those eight, with Ospreys having a mountain to climb. Right now I would say it will be Ospreys, and one of those last four that will likely miss out, but the season has a long way to go, and the depth of these teams will be sorely tested.

Edit: Scarlets just have to finish above Ospreys to qualify through. So assuming Ospreys fail to make top 6, or above Scarlets, Scarlets will go through regardless of making the top 6. So I think one of Ulster, Connacht or Edinburgh would likely miss out.

Thankfully Ulster have their Irish internationals to come back with Henderson, Payne, Bowe and Olding all coming back at some stage through the season which should hopefully give the team a boost at different stages through the season

We have that, and Kiss now installed as Director/Coach (hopefully coach?). Our away form has been poor, and if that can be turned around then we can challenge for a top 4 place, and I would be cautiously optimistic that we can do that. I'm really just judging things as I see them at present, as well as last seasons results. If Connacht and Edinburgh can maintain their challenge, who knows?

by Kingshu Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:47 pm

I think the biggest difference for Ulster will be Les Kiss coming in.

So far this season, Scarlets and Connacht have made the most of things and have given themselves great chances for making the Champions Cup next year. Scarlets may even be now looking at a top 4 finish.

Zebre have given themselves a great boost, above Ospreys and Cardiff Blues, nearly a 1/3 of the way though the season, have given themselves a great chance of not being the bottom team, but maybe the aim and what they have given themselves a chance of is finishing above a non Italian team.

Munster have done well, during the first 6 games aim was to stay near the top and they are doing best out of the title contenders.

Leinster, Ulster Glasgow are doing as expected, Ulster and Leinster prob hoped for better, but will settle for where they are. Glasgow missing so many players would be content where they are.

Edinburgh started well, but last two games have set them back a bit, given themselves a good shout at Champions cup.

Dragons would have hoped to have picked up points during this time and haven't done as well as they would have hoped, but not all doom and gloom, even more disappointed would be Cardiff Blues fans who would have planed to be higher.

Ospreys would have hoped to be sticking around the Leinster/Ulster/Glasgow mark but find themselves 11/12 points off the pace, this is a lot to hope to make up against these teams, and most will prob feel that they have lost to much ground already.

in short

Happy teams
Scarlets
Connacht
Munster
Zebre

Pleased teams
Edinburgh

OK teams
leinster
Ulster
Glasgow

Unhappy teams
Dragons

Not pleased teams
Cardiff Blues
Treviso

Very disappointed teams
Ospreys

by **RDW** Mon Nov 02, 2015 4:53 pm

Can't argue with that assessment Kingshu. Anyone want to take a stab at the final standings based on the first 6 games??

Munster
Leinster
Glasgow
Scarlets
Ulster
Connacht
Edinburgh (I can see us just missing out and ruing that loss to Zebre)
Ospreys (lost a lot of ground and will similarly struggle during 6N)
Dragons
Blues
Zebre
Treviso

by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 5:11 pm

Yep, 6N's and the RCC will play a factor in who finishes top.

We have already seen how the RWC has hit some of the teams. Ospreys, Glasgow and Leinster in particular. The 6N's may have a similar impact. The RCC may also hit some teams, but that largely depends on which teams target a quarter final spot, and beyond.

by wayne Mon Nov 02, 2015 9:47 pm

In the 6N period we (Ospreys) have Glasgow and Edinburgh at home, and Leinster, Connaught and Munster away, on top of losing 5 of our first 6 matches, we have absolutely NO chance of finishing in the top 6, it is RCC2 for us next season.

by Guest Mon Nov 02, 2015 10:08 pm

I think you have a chance of beating Glasgow at home, in that period, but less of a chance v Edinburgh. Connacht could well be your biggest challenge in the away games. So I would predict at least two loses, and if those loses are to Edinburgh and Connacht I think you're out of top 6.
It's a huge ask for Ospreys, but still doable.

by wayne Tue Nov 03, 2015 8:08 am

Munchkin wrote:I think you have a chance of beating Glasgow at home, in that period, but less of a chance v Edinburgh. Connacht could well be your biggest challenge in the away games. So I would predict at least two loses, and if those loses are to Edinburgh and Connacht I think you're out of top 6.
It's a huge ask for Ospreys, but still doable.

Munchkin IIRC we play Glasgow in the first game of that period, just after we lose all our players because of the 13 day rule, do Scotland take their Teams players that far in advance, I don't think they do, if they do we could well win that game, if they don't, we have NO chance.

by munkian Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:20 am

I don't see anything but an Ulster win on Sunday against us so your away form should improve.

We don't have Amos to run through Pienaar again and Hewitt seems to be our only spark of attack.

by demosthenes Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:25 am

wayne wrote:
Munchkin wrote:I think you have a chance of beating Glasgow at home, in that period, but less of a chance v Edinburgh. Connacht could well be your biggest challenge in the away games. So I would predict at least two loses, and if those loses are to Edinburgh and Connacht I think you're out of top 6.
It's a huge ask for Ospreys, but still doable.
Munchkin IIRC we play Glasgow in the first game of that period, just after we lose all our players because of the 13 day rule, do Scotland take their Teams players that far in advance, I don't think they do, if they do we could well win that game, if they don't, we have NO chance.

Well, the good thing from a Glasgow perspective is that they should not be quite as badly affected by player call-ups as they were in the World Cup, even if Scotland do take the players at the same time as Wales. Although no-one knows what the injury situation will be at that time!

by **RDW** Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:27 am

Typically those in the Scotland squad miss the last Pro 12 game before the 6N, so I suspect Glasgow will be missing a few.

As has been said though, they will have players from other nations that they didn't have from during the WC so won't be quite as desperate!

by thebandwagonsociety Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:49 am

So with the merit based qualification system for Europe there could be 4 Irish, 1 Welsh, 1 Scot and 1 Italian side? This site would explode!

My bet for the season is for Connacht to finish above Leinster.

by marty2086 Tue Nov 03, 2015 10:55 am

munkian wrote:I don't see anything but an Ulster win on Sunday against us so your away form should improve.

We don't have Amos to run through Pienaar again and Hewitt seems to be our only spark of attack.

That's what everyone thought last year and it didn't quite work out so well

With the internationals bedding back in, Kiss starting full time yesterday and Ulsters away form theres a lot of unknown variables

by **RDW** Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:02 am

thebandwagonsociety wrote:So with the merit based qualification system for Europe there could be 4 Irish, 1 Welsh, 1 Scot and 1 Italian side? This site would explode!

by munkian Tue Nov 03, 2015 11:11 am

marty2086 wrote:
munkian wrote:I don't see anything but an Ulster win on Sunday against us so your away form should improve.

We don't have Amos to run through Pienaar again and Hewitt seems to be our only spark of attack.

That's what everyone thought last year and it didn't quite work out so well

With the internationals bedding back in, Kiss starting full time yesterday and Ulsters away form theres a lot of unknown variables

Hmmm, we'll see

by Guest Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:08 pm

wayne wrote:
Munchkin wrote:I think you have a chance of beating Glasgow at home, in that period, but less of a chance v Edinburgh. Connacht could well be your biggest challenge in the away games. So I would predict at least two loses, and if those loses are to Edinburgh and Connacht I think you're out of top 6.
It's a huge ask for Ospreys, but still doable.
Munchkin IIRC we play Glasgow in the first game of that period, just after we lose all our players because of the 13 day rule, do Scotland take their Teams players that far in advance, I don't think they do, if they do we could well win that game, if they don't, we have NO chance.

I think most teams lose players in the same period. I think it will hurt you more losing to Edinburgh, Scarlets or Connacht, because it could well be these teams that you are fighting for a 6th place. That's assuming that these teams fall behind those usually finishing at the top, and that Ospreys don't fall much further behind.
I could be completely wrong. I'm basing that on last seasons results, and allowing that some teams have been hit particularly hard by the RWC.

by Guest Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:14 pm

munkian wrote:I don't see anything but an Ulster win on Sunday against us so your away form should improve.

We don't have Amos to run through Pienaar again and Hewitt seems to be our only spark of attack.

Our away form has been terrible. We had our best away v Munster, but defence was lacking for both sides. Dragons have had mixed results playing at home, and are difficult to predict. Ulster will have more of our first team players back, and Kiss might make an immediate impact on our away form. I think we will win, but if we turn up as we did v Scarlets or Edinburgh, we could lose.

by Guest Tue Nov 03, 2015 12:14 pm

RDW_Scotland wrote:
thebandwagonsociety wrote:So with the merit based qualification system for Europe there could be 4 Irish, 1 Welsh, 1 Scot and 1 Italian side? This site would explode!

by thebandwagonsociety Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:27 pm

Ok guys, I'm getting paranoid now, what are you trying to say about me?

by Guest Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:43 pm

We couldn't possibly tell you devil

by **RDW** Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:45 pm

I though it was obvious?

by **profitius** Sat Nov 07, 2015 1:51 pm

Cardiff have won 1 game and lost 5 but their points difference is +9. Not often you see that.

Connacht and Scarlets the early pace setters. Scarlets looking good for a playoff place. I'd still be surprised to see Connacht make the playoffs.

by VinceWLB Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:13 pm

Connacht have been doing well but what's up with their crowd numbers, they are barely breaking 3K.

by Guest Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:22 pm

Bit of a surprise. Certainly a drop from last season. Don't know what's happened there.

by VinceWLB Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:28 pm

More expensive tickets maybe? This is really strange indeed as they have been constantly improving their crowd numbers for the last 4 seasons now.

by Guest Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:42 pm

Looked on their forum but couldn't find any reference to falling numbers. Strange. It could be the effect of the RWC. It has had an impact on most clubs, I think. It could be ticket prices. Maybe one of the Connacht fans will enlighten us?
Hope it's just the RWC impact.

by **Notch** Sat Nov 07, 2015 2:49 pm

profitius wrote:Cardiff have won 1 game and lost 5 but their points difference is +9. Not often you see that.

Was the one win they got a big blow-out against Zebre or someone?

by bedfordwelsh Sat Nov 07, 2015 3:00 pm

[quote="profitius"]Cardiff have won 1 game and lost 5 but their points difference is +9. Not often you see that.

Cardiff have won 5 lost 5, Cardiff Blues on the other hand Wink

by **profitius** Sat Mar 05, 2016 2:45 am

The playoff and European places are heating up. Its going to be very tight. Leinster look assured of finishing in the top 2. Connacht odds on to make the playoffs also.

That leaves only 2 spots. Scarlets and Ulster are in a similar position and looking at the remaining matches, both have a similar type of run in.

Edinburgh are nearby and Ospreys will be looking for a big finish to the season.

Glasgow are well down the table BUT they've 3 games in hand and look likely to make a charge up the table before the end of the season. The teams above them will be sweating.

Munster are another side that will be looking for a strong finish to the season. They've 2 games in hand and are 3 points above Glasgow.

Down at the bottom theres another battle happening for the Italian champions cup spot. Only 3 points between Zebre and Treviso.

So for me the top 4 will be (in no order) Connacht, Leinster, Ulster, Scarlets. I think Ulster and Scarlets will hang on but its going to go down to the last day of the season.

The top 6 will be those 4, Glasgow and another. Ospreys look like they won't make the top 6. They need to start winning.

by True Raven Sat Mar 05, 2016 10:39 am

We wont make it which is a shame but we've been stung by the world cup and also a lack of depth in our squad. After a dreadful start we've done well to catch up but it was too much to claw back.

However, thankfully our key players signed new contracts so wont be going anywhere so we can have a good crack at the pro12 next year and even challenge for a European trophy, but we need to make sure that playing in the second tier European competition is a one year thing

by wayne Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:10 pm

True Raven wrote:We wont make it which is a shame but we've been stung by the world cup and also a lack of depth in our squad. After a dreadful start we've done well to catch up but it was too much to claw back.

However, thankfully our key players signed new contracts so wont be going anywhere so we can have a good crack at the pro12 next year and even challenge for a European trophy, but we need to make sure that playing in the second tier European competition is a one year thing

I'm sorry to say TR, but I think you're right, it will take a remarkable set of results for us to qualify for RCC 1, not only from us but others as well.

by VinceWLB Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:22 pm

After their showing in the European competition this season when they SHOULD have got through the pool stage but for some refereeing calls it will be a real shame to see the O's in the 2nd tier tournament.

by Kingshu Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:48 pm

I really love this season for Connacht

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/uk-ireland/guinness-pro12/grand-final-winner

Start of season for Grand Final winner, Connacht were 50/1 (66/1 in places) and are now down to 3/1

Tells a lot of how unfancied they were at the start of the season, they are now 2nd favourites

But its not just that they have got themselves in this position its how they have done it.

Top try scorers in the league, by a decent margin (49)
next best is Ulster on 41 then Scarlets 38,

Top try bonus points (7)
next best Ulster 6, Leinster + Glasgow 4

Top point scores by a lot (420)
next best Scarlets 371 and then an long drop to Ulster 330

Fair do's to Scarlets as well 25/1 at start of season to 10/1 and playing attractive rugby as well right up there for points scored and tries.

Its great to see that the two teams that play attacking rugby are right up the table.

Another interesting stat (ignoring the Italian teams) is

Points conceded (339)
next worse Scarlets 317 then Dragons 315

Tries conceded (38)
Next worse Scarlets and Dragons (36)

Attack better than a top team, defend as poor a bottom placed team.

I read that Lam has Connacht playing like a Super Rugby team with so much focused on attack, and scoring tries, Scarlets must be playing in a similar way.

And I think its fair play to both teams going out to attack to try and win games (rather than not to lose) that they both sit so high up the table.

Fans must be delighted.

by True Raven Sat Mar 05, 2016 1:35 pm

I feel for Connacht, whenever they have a good season the other provinces plunder their players and they have to start all over again. Last time they did well keatley went to Munster, carr and Cronin to Leinster. Now henshaw goes to Leinster, ah you to ulster. It wont be long until marmion and dillane get poached too

by Guest Sat Mar 05, 2016 1:50 pm

In that case, Dillane and Marmion to Ulster please.

...... it's only fair angel

by **profitius** Sat Mar 05, 2016 2:03 pm

Thanks Kingshu. It makes for interesting reading!

True Raven wrote:I feel for Connacht, whenever they have a good season the other provinces plunder their players and they have to start all over again. Last time they did well keatley went to Munster, carr and Cronin to Leinster. Now henshaw goes to Leinster, ah you to ulster. It wont be long until marmion and dillane get poached too

Connacht will remain strong if they can keep hold of Lam. They'll lose a few players but many will go the opposite direction and this seasons Ireland U20s had about 5 starters from Connacht. That would have been unheard of not so long ago.

Interesting also that Henshaw and Dillane have not played very much this season. Its Dillane's first season I believe and Henshaw got injured shortly after the world cup.
Henshaw wants to leave but Ah You has been forced on them I think. They are covered at tighthead so I'm not sure how much of a loss Ah You is.

by Kingshu Sat Mar 05, 2016 2:13 pm

True Raven wrote:I feel for Connacht, whenever they have a good season the other provinces plunder their players and they have to start all over again. Last time they did well keatley went to Munster, carr and Cronin to Leinster. Now henshaw goes to Leinster, ah you to ulster. It wont be long until marmion and dillane get poached too

last time (10/11) when they lost Keatley, Carr, Hagen and Cronin the IRFU were doing a review on them and they could only offer these players a one year contract (don't think the IRFU were planning on disbanding them, but were keeping options open) after the review it was concluded that the IRFU should increase investment in Connacht, more into academy, training facilities, coaching etc and Eric Elwood then laid the blue prints
since then they have only lost Mike McCarthy, signalling that with the increased investment they are better able to keep the players they want.

Ok this year they are losing Henshaw and Ah You, but I don't think we will see a mass exodus again. At least I hope not.

by Golden Sat Mar 05, 2016 2:19 pm

According to the Leinster forum Heenan will be off to Munster too.

by **Notch** Sat Mar 05, 2016 2:34 pm

Heenan is a very good player, but he's another one who has barely played due to injury.

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