Smooth Transition or Vacuum

Men's tennis will be having a change of guard in the next few years. Novak will be in decline, Andy likewise and Roger and Rafa also will not be in the frame as far as slam winning goes.

The question is will it be a smooth transition as in will new forces already have slam wins to their name by the time the old guard are spent forces or will Novak keep mopping up slams with the likes of other lesser powers such as Murray and Wawrinka feeding off the crumbs and then we are left with a vacuum.

Current ages of the top ten: 28, 28, 34, 31, 29, 26, 30, 33, 30, 29.

As things stand, any "new force" winning a slam would be a big upset.

It probably won't be a total vacuum because the likes of Novak and Andy are younger than Federer, Wawrinka, Berdych, Tsonga etc, so the current top group will gradually fade rather than vanish.

But it appears change will probably come about through the decline of the current top players rather than the emergence of great new talent.

A 'new force' needn't be one of the ilk of Thiem or Zverev but more like someone such as Raonic, Dimitrov or Kyrgios. These 'new forces' only need Djokovic to lose before the semis or quarters in a slam and the door opens for them as at present the rest all have problems of their own.

CaledonianCraig wrote:A 'new force' needn't be one of the ilk of Thiem or Zverev but more like someone such as Raonic, Dimitrov or Kyrgios. These 'new forces' only need Djokovic to lose before the semis or quarters in a slam and the door opens for them as at present the rest all have problems of their own.

With the exception of Raonic (who is 25), the others are a mile away from winning slams.

If (when) Djokovic falls early, I think it will be one of the other usual suspects who goes on to win. It's their decline that the next winners are waiting for more than Novak's. Even in the present, Novak doesn't win every slam. The problem for new winners, is that they can't even pick off the chasing pack with any consistency.

I would guess that there will be a few different slam winners or people that pick up a few, before a new dominant force(s) come onto the scene.

Raonic, Nishikori etc will probably be the interim.

Thiem, Zverev, Fritz, Kyrgios the future.

If Novaks form goes with the rest, the first guys in line are Tonga, Berdych Nisikori and Raonic I think. Thr younger guys are probably a good 5-6 years out

I think it may be inevitable that we go through a doldrums period. I think people have been spoiled by the consistent brilliance and focus of the top three of this period and Murray to a lesser extent. Three double digit slam winners in close proximation is a rarity and we will most likely go into a transitional period of a few years.

That being said it looks like the class of players 17-22 is much stronger than the class of players from 22-27 so that gives us some hope that as Novak falls off new emerging talents will arise. Zverev, Kyrgios, Rublev, Fritz, maybe Tiafoe are all very watchable and talented players. Kyrgios has the most upside the sky's the limit if he can get his head right. But again that is a big if because the early signs are not good. But lets remember that in January of 2011 some denounced Djokovic as a hypochondriac, one mono-induced slam who lacked any weapons. And in 2011 he was a couple years older than Nick is now and he had his owns issues with the media and lockeroom. Nick is still a big kid, a super talented one; but I think one that needs a strong daddy figure to smack him around. Anyone up for getting Ivan to coach Nick, could really help tennis in the future if this guy gets his demons under control.

Yeah, Kyrgios really is a to$$er - as he's showing today.

Some people are claiming that Andy Murray has made a smooth transition into mediocrity on the court following fatherhood. Whether this is temporary or permanent is uncertain. Andy Murray has in the past exhibited post AO blues, a post AO slump following the disappointment of not winning the tournament.

Andys current issues can be classed as form is temporary I think

But wasn't he pretty mediocre by his own very high standards of course prior to the marriage and the kid? He hasn't really been quite since the back issues, maybe he isn't letting on about how chronic or debilitating those issues are.