The Aviva/Jeff Run-In 2016

Surprised there isn't a thread on this already, but here we go anyway:

4 or 5 (if you're Bath and Sale) games to go. 7 teams in with a shout, really.

Which will make the play-offs given their run-in, points tallies and current form?



1. SARACENS  

Currently: Played 18, Won 13, Drawn 1, Lost 4, Points 62

Run-In:
Bath (A)
Harlequins (H)
Newcastle (H)
Worcester (A)



2. EXETER CHIEFS 

Currently: Played 18, Won 12, Drawn 0, Lost 6, Points 59

Run-In:
Worcester (H)
Gloucester (A)
Wasps (H)
Harlequins (A)



3. WASPS 

Currently: Played 18, Won 12, Drawn 0, Lost 6, Points 58

Run-In:
Saints (H)
Worcester (A)
Exeter (A)
London Irish (H)



4. NORTHAMPTON SAINTS 

Currently: Played 18, Won 10, Drawn 0, Lost 8, Points 51

Run-In:
Wasps (A)
Leicester (H)
Bath (H)
Gloucester (A)



5. LEICESTER TIGERS 

Currently: Played 18, Won 11, Drawn 0, Lost 7, Points 50

Run-In:
Gloucester (H)
Northampton (A)
Worcester (H)
Bath (A)

 

6. HARLEQUINS

Currently: Played 18, Won 8, Drawn 1, Lost 9, Points 45

Run-In:
Newcastle (H)
Sarcacens (A)
London Irish (A)
Exeter (H)



7. SALE SHARKS 

Currently: Played 17, Won 8, Drawn 2, Lost 7, Points 42

Run-In:
London Irish (A)
Bath (A)
Bath (H)
Gloucester (H)
Newcastle (A)

***********

I haven't been following the Jeff as much this year, so frankly, I haven't got a bloody clue how anyone is doing or whom the players of this season are.

1-3 are certs for the playoffs, Sarries to top the table, the Chiefs vs Wasps game will decide 2nd from 3rd.

Perm any one from 4 for the fourth spot, Saints currently hold it, but they have to play Wasps away and Tigers at home. Quins have to play Sarries away and Chiefs at home, like Saints they could easily come away with only the odd bonus point from them.

Tigers and Sale have the easiest run ins, plus Sharks have a game in hand, but are 6 and 9 points adrift for 4th spot respectively.

If Saints can win against Tigers, I think they can do it, the other sides would have to pick up most of the available points. Can't see Quins beating Sarries and they would have to dominate Chiefs pack to have any chance there.

One thing is for certain, nothing is certain.

I was waiting till after thsi weekend to post this thread, so beaten to it.

Leicester will be hopeful that they can enter next weekend with a 4pt lead over Saints which could make all the difference. I think the East Midlands rivals will enter round 22 level on points (with saints beating Tigers at the Gardens but losing to Wasps) so all will be to play for. If level on points Tigers have the advantage in the first decider - more wins.

Quins I feel are too far back and playing two sides fighting out relegation and two fighting for home semis is a tough run in.

Sale have the issue of 3 games in a week.


So for me IFTigers beat Bath at the rec in round 22, then they will pip Saints to 4th spot.

Yea expect the top three unchanged and a classic Tigers late come back to seal 4th place for them.

Saints left themselves too much to do until too late

Quins started well but fell apart, was it CoS leaving, or the Internationals, or something else?

yappysnap wrote:Saints left themselves too much to do until too late

Saints lost earlier in the season to Worcester and London Irish.  If they don't make it into the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves.  That said, they are pretty good at focusing on one game at a time.  Clearly the key one is the match against Leicester.   However, Saints must beat Exe first.  If Saints beat Exe, they are in good position.  If they lose, it will a massive uphill battle.  

It's funny, but sometimes it feels as if the key match is always the one against Leicester.  I don't think either team need a playoff spot to be on the line to go at it hammer and tongs.  Just each other is enough.

doctor_grey wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Saints left themselves too much to do until too late

Saints lost earlier in the season to Worcester and London Irish.  If they don't make it into the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves.  That said, they are pretty good at focusing on one game at a time.  Clearly the key one is the match against Leicester.   However, Saints must beat Exe first.  If Saints beat Exe, they are in good position.  If they lose, it will a massive uphill battle.  

It's funny, but sometimes it feels as if the key match is always the one against Leicester.  I don't think either team need a playoff spot to be on the line to go at it hammer and tongs.  Just each other is enough.

AND the Falcons!

Just looking Irish and us could have a big baring on the title. We've been poor, but we DO have the ability to play well.

A couple of performances and a win hear or there could knock title aspirations.

Seeing as you've already been poopies and beaten Quins once this season, could you please let us have 5 points this week????

Ordinarily I would say no probs...but we have a few issues of our own at the moment, just trying to stay in the division.

I think you should win though. Unless we unleash big Chisanga...the Kenyan nightmare on you ....

Agree that Bath vs Tigers will probably decide whether or not Tigers grab the 4th spot. Even if Bath have nothing to play for, the chance to deny Tigers a playoff spot while recreating some of last season's magic will be more than enough motivation.

Beyond that I think Wasps will follow Bath's path last year, impressively winning the semi-final with a large score before being shut down by everyone's second team in the final.

Fuzzy Dunlop wrote:Agree that Bath vs Tigers will probably decide whether or not Tigers grab the 4th spot. Even if Bath have nothing to play for, the chance to deny Tigers a playoff spot while recreating some of last season's magic will be more than enough motivation.

Beyond that I think Wasps will follow Bath's path last year, impressively winning the semi-final with a large score before being shut down by everyone's second team in the final.

I don't think we'll make the final this year though Fuzzy.

How can I put this in a not indelicate manner - er, why have Bath been so sh!te this season?

GeordieFalcon wrote:

doctor_grey wrote:

yappysnap wrote:Saints left themselves too much to do until too late

Saints lost earlier in the season to Worcester and London Irish.  If they don't make it into the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves.  That said, they are pretty good at focusing on one game at a time.  Clearly the key one is the match against Leicester.   However, Saints must beat Exe first.  If Saints beat Exe, they are in good position.  If they lose, it will a massive uphill battle.  

It's funny, but sometimes it feels as if the key match is always the one against Leicester.  I don't think either team need a playoff spot to be on the line to go at it hammer and tongs.  Just each other is enough.

AND the Falcons!

Yeah, I forgot that one. Thanks (eerrgh) for reminding me...............

George Carlin wrote:How can I put this in a not indelicate manner - er, why have Bath been so sh!te this season?

In my opinion Lack of confidence. Lack of leadership in general. High profile players not performing like Denton,Ford and Priestland. If you're getting paid well you need to deliver. Poor development of players hence having to use the strength of another AP side's academy to supplement their own.

Lack of quality in some positions too.

Clearly Saints vs Tigers is the crucial game. I can see us needing a BP win>7.

Saints: Wasps Lose, Tigers Win, Bath Win BP, Gloucester Win BP.
Tigers: Gloucester Win BP, Saints Lose BP, Worcester Win BP, Bath Win BP.

Would leave Tigers a point ahead.

Can imagine we will see no 4th try in some of those games but Saints will need a 2 point swing. From: losing BP vs Wasps, denying Tigers losing BP, getting a BP vs Tigers and Tigers not getting BP in one of the other games.

EDIT: Having said that, it does feel like momentum is with the Saints.

George Carlin wrote:How can I put this in a not indelicate manner - er, why have Bath been so sh!te this season?

Poor pre-season and start of the real season is the main one, allied to some key injuries and poor recruitment and the confidence levels have been absent.

Bath's key players/leaders are Hooper, Louw and Ford jr. Two of those were absent from pre-season due to RWC and Hooper was injured. They then also missed Webber, Thomas, Wilson and Attwood for at least part of pre-season and Attwood has spent much of the season injured. They had a major back row crisis early doors, such that in one game they had a back row consisting of 3 second row forwards. James leaving and Auterac's injuries did not help either.

Matawalu, Priestland and Denton have added nothing and the whole Burgess farce hit them for 6.

Then finally you have the issue of the coaches seeming incapable of inspiring the team to overcome the adversity. A team of:

Auterac, Webber, Wilson/Thomas, Attwood, Hooper, Garvey, Louw, Denton, Cook, Ford, Roku, Eastmond, Joseph, Banahan, Watson should be more competetive than they have been - but how many games have they actually had from all of them?

I think you also need to take into account other teams improvement LT

Almost all of the clubs in the Prem have recruited strongly and are better then they were last season, except for Irish and Falcons. In particular Baths pack can't dominate like it did.

They're probably being analysed far more critically in the build up to games now too. There's no surprise factor for their backs.

It did cross my mind that I didn't think Bath used Matawalu or Denton properly given the gameplan that they were striving for.

However, I am also aware that one man's 'improperly used' is another man's 'just not very good'.

I honestly believe that Glasgow may shape to get Niko back for next season.

Mata was not a great fit for Bath and the way they play. They really need a nuts and bolts SH rather than flash, bang wallop.

And yes Yappy, I suspect that other teams have fully analysed Baths double layer attack and know much better what to defend against.

This issues really come up front though, they have not been able to get much front foot ball.

Would not claim to be an expert but I do think Thomas has been far better than Wilson this season, and I am not sure Denton would feature in the best Bath 15 of the season.

Bath have not been good this season, but it does show teams only have to be a little off and anyone can beat anyone.  Confidence or lack of it seems to play a big part as well.

Bath's season has been a catalogue of bad luck and bad judgements.

The front row was going great guns then Batty and Auterac have been injured together with a loss of form and seemingly strength from Wilson. Second row injuries to Attwood, Hooper and Day have also resulted in a loss of set piece power and experience, although valuable experience has been gained by Ewels & Ellis.
In the back row the workload for Garvey, Louw and Houston has left them battered and frankly jaded. Denton has tried to carry the ball but has generally been smashed at the gain line. The lack of quick ball has put huge pressure on Ford who hasn't had a break in 18 months and needs a recharge. The salaries spent on Denton and Priestland should have gone on back rows and 7s in particular, as Mercer doesn't appear to have gained Ford's trust. However Ford snr still maintains it doesn't matter the numbers on back row players but has had limited success with this approach.

The lack of continuity at half back has been well documented but the backs, despite slow ball haven't done too badly.

The run in means that Bath are unlikely to make top six, which should mean changes in the summer. Quins finishing top 6 and winning the Challenge Cup remains the best hope.
Neither Devoto or Webber have had replacements announced and the leadership team needs to develop asap with Hooper retiring.

The distractions on redeveloping the stadium are hopefully coming to head with the planning meeting in June finally giving a final decision.

In our 150th year it has been a season to forget.