AJ versus Fury deja vu - are we all making the same mistakes again...??

Last time Fury fought a 6'6" lean muscled hard-hitting world champion, mine, and most peoples', analyis was set out something like this:

Wlad advantages:

Power
Fitness
Strength
Handspeed
Footspeed (for someone so big)

Fury advantages:

Height/Reach
Recovery powers

Now we're talking about him fighting another, albeit much greener, one and once again everyone is producing pretty much the same analysis. If/when they do fight, is Fury not going to mug us all off again?

There are still Q's over AJ's stamina (which don't seem to be there for the pudgier Fury), Fury showed versus Wlad that his ungainly style is actually quite effective in terms of movement as opposed to AJ's still slightly stiff stance, the heigh/reach advantage could still really tell and, finally, Fury doesn't look like he gets rattled and will be all confidence & bravado to unsettle the young challenger.

On the flip side, AJ's seems to have the killer instinct in spades which Wlad clearly didnt, will likely maintain higher output than Wlad did and seems happy to take a shot (when you consider Fury doesn't hit that hard).

So, what does everyone think, are we under-estimating Fury (again)?

Fool me once.......

Yes massively underestimating him. I have no problem people having Joshua favourite, but to dismiss Fury fully, I think is a little premature.

Wlad has more physical advantages than AJ but what sets them apart is AJ's willingness to actually fight. Can you imagine Wlad deciding that he wanted to dish out a beating to Dillan Whyte and grin with delight when he had his man hurt like AJ did? Wlad lacks the killer instinct of AJ which is the big difference maker.

Fury vs AJ would be two fighters with self-belief, then what separates them would be their actual ability

I agree with killer instinct being the major differentiator between AJ & Wlad (bar experience), but what more physical advantages would you say Wlad had beyond AJ, Dave??

This will sound stupid, but does Wlad maybe have more, or at least as much punch power as AJ? He just has a habit of not putting everything into his shots, because of a fear of being hit back.

AdamT wrote:This will sound stupid, but does Wlad maybe have more, or at least as much punch power as AJ? He just has a habit of not putting everything into his shots, because of a fear of being hit back.

He doesn't. He's had a number of fights where he's connected well a number of times and his opponents has stayed around. His KOs are often from accumulated punches. Joshua's second knockdown was from a short snappy shot. Even if you look earlier in his career when he was more gung ho a lot of his fights went into the late rounds.

Fury will beat Joshua by points or a late TKO

AJ has power but not enough to beat Fury who will keep him at range

TopHat24/7 wrote:I agree with killer instinct being the major differentiator between AJ & Wlad (bar experience), but what more physical advantages would you say Wlad had beyond AJ, Dave??

He's taller, has a better reach (I believe) and he's clearly superior in the footwork department. They both have pretty labored upper body movement.

He's also a more accomplished grappler and has better throws.

Wlad is quicker as well. Or at least was around the time he fought Haye.

AJ has the reach advantage. Do think Wlad probably hits harder when he unloads though. Think AJ is less afraid to throw in the tank since he hasn't
A - Been knocked to heaven (Sanders)
B - Gassed. BAD (Brewster)

DAVE667 wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:I agree with killer instinct being the major differentiator between AJ & Wlad (bar experience), but what more physical advantages would you say Wlad had beyond AJ, Dave??

He's taller, has a better reach (I believe) and he's clearly superior in the footwork department. They both have pretty labored upper body movement.

Boxrec lists them both as 6'6" and AJ 1 inch reach advantage.

Agree with the rest of your assessment - though it was next to useless versus Fury.

On the power point, didn't Manny (RIP) comment that he was the hardest hitter he'd ever worked with? A real concussive puncher. Always thought there were a few stories and comments around to that affect.

Plus, the K's were known for dragging out their fights for German TV audiences and advertising revenues, maybe this combined with that fear factor meant Wlad had the power but never unloaded it with the same abandon AJ does??

I feel like Wlad carrying opponents or never sitting on a shot seems more of a stretch than AJ just being the bigger hitter.

kingraf wrote:AJ has the reach advantage. Do think Wlad probably hits harder when he unloads though. Think AJ is less afraid to throw in the tank since he hasn't
A - Been knocked to heaven (Sanders)
B - Gassed. BAD (Brewster)

A - hasn't fought a fighter with quick hands and nothing to lose
B - been drugged, nay, poisoned during a fight.

DAVE667 wrote:

kingraf wrote:AJ has the reach advantage. Do think Wlad probably hits harder when he unloads though. Think AJ is less afraid to throw in the tank since he hasn't
A - Been knocked to heaven (Sanders)
B - Gassed. BAD (Brewster)

A - hasn't fought a fighter with quick hands and nothing to lose
B - been drugged, nay, poisoned during a fight.

??????

Scottrf wrote:I feel like Wlad carrying opponents or never sitting on a shot seems more of a stretch than AJ just being the bigger hitter.

Wlad vs Fat Eddie....

Round 6: You need to finish him off
Round seven: You need to finish him off
Round 8: You need to finish him off
Round 9: you need to finish him off
Round 10: FFS Wladimir finish him off
Round 11: I'm not joking Wlad finish him
Round 12: One left hook later and we all went home

While I'm sure there were varying degrees of carrying... I certainly feel like he did carry much of his weaker opposition

Wlad hits like a mule. He has left many opponent stone cold. AJ might be the second coming, but I will reserve my judgement for a bit. He made hard work of Whyte.

Was just thinking... the current talk of the Heavy division is all AJ/Fury/Wilder and maybe Haye. But what about if Wlad beats Fury in the rematch, and sticks around for another 2 or 3 years? Is there any chance we'd ever see Joshua in there with Klitschko?

Maybe some are underestimating Whyte. Testament will be where he goes from here.

I have no doubt Wlad hits harder in training when he can set himself without fear of being hit but that means nothing if he doesn't do it during an actual fight. The real advantage AJ has is his spite, he wants to close the show early and conclusively.

smashingstormcrow wrote:Was just thinking... the current talk of the Heavy division is all AJ/Fury/Wilder and maybe Haye. But what about if Wlad beats Fury in the rematch, and sticks around for another 2 or 3 years? Is there any chance we'd ever see Joshua in there with Klitschko?

Yep, maybe we're all taking Fury beating Wlad a second time as too much of a given.

If Fury does lose the rematch, I don't see AJ going near Wlad for a while.

Hammersmith harrier wrote:I have no doubt Wlad hits harder in training when he can set himself without fear of being hit but that means nothing if he doesn't do it during an actual fight. The real advantage AJ has is his spite, he wants to close the show early and conclusively.

What do you think about AJ's power versus that of Wilder??

Wlad clearly didn't have faster hands or feet....

Have to give the edge to AJ on that, he sets himself so much better and gets full force into his shots.

Do feel like Wilder wings in his shots to generate power, as opposed to good punching technique.

Wilder hasn't got great technique, but he generates a lot of power also. He has the power to ko Joshua and vice versa. Joshua looks the better boxer.

Be interesting to see how AJ would deal with Wilder's wild style.

Wilder has come out bloody facing Joe Average for the last year and a bit tbh. Saying that Stiverne is possibly the best name on either resume and he was pretty decisive then. Give it to AJ though

Wouldn't be a long fight either way. Wilder is far from great, but I think he gets somewhat overlooked. I still think AJ would be too good technically.

Furys comments about muscles not making a person a "boxer" hold water through his win against Wladimir. Fury enjoyed himself in his fight and appeared very conscious of what he was doing with supreme confidence. His appearance is unlikely but he is formidable.

I thought Martin was static by comparison and it told me nothing more about AJ...not meaning to be negative as I. Like AJ and I. Really hope he does well.

Fury showed that superior power is only relevant if it can be utilised. He didn't allow Wladimir his strengths by out smarting him and I think unless AJ can "outthink" and outbox Fury, he won't land and more likely lose. This fight could be more about Fury making a mistake than AJ being a better boxer..you can't just smash at air.

I'm with Lennox and Warren on this one, both don't think he could walk through Fury.

If he could then I guess he'd beat Wladimir handily...something I don't think he would do either.

Fury is no Ali, but Ali showed the same against Liston.

I'm not saying AJ is useless, but he is used to hitting these fat punch bags. We will see how he deals with movement and someone throwing serious leather back at him.

I fell for the hype of McGregor in mma, so understand people getting carried away.

If AJ is the real deal. Happy days. He looks the part and finishes guys off. I don't want him to fail, I'm just not getting too excited yet. This time next year I will likely blow smoke up his hole as well, if he beats all in front of him.

Some people saying the Whyte win will all depend on what Whyte goes on to do. While obviously true, Whyte is average at best. So I doubt very much he will be a stand out name on AJ's resume at the end of his career.

Whyte was written off with no chance before the fight on here and if you go back and watch the fight he was extremely average ability wise IMO. Other than rocking AJ in the 2nd he was poor. So to go from a domestic clash with an opponent of Whytes quality to a 'World title' fight just shows the state of boxing right now.

And the hype train rolls on

I think we all can agree, heavyweight boxing is bad. Imagine a young Mike Tyson coming through now.

I would make Fury massive favourite on what we have seen so far. The fact that Joshua is favourite is more an indication of how successful his P.R machine has been. Don't think we will see it soon though. AJ to have at least three times and Fury with a very dangerous rematch. Also if Fury wins I expect him to fight Wilder in America

Lance wrote:I would make Fury massive favourite on what we have seen so far. The fact that Joshua is favourite is more an indication of how successful his P.R machine has been. Don't think we will see it soon though. AJ to have at least three times and Fury with a very dangerous rematch. Also if Fury wins I expect him to fight Wilder in America

I think Fury has been hyping that fight with Wilder. Was it Wilders last fight, Tyson entered the ring, for that WWE type stunt.

It would be great to see Fury/Wlad vs Wilder/ and Haye vs Joshua. Then the winners square off. Doubt it will be that smooth though.

EX7EY wrote:Some people saying the Whyte win will all depend on what Whyte goes on to do.  While obviously true, Whyte is average at best.  So I doubt very much he will be a stand out name on AJ's resume at the end of his career.

Whyte was written off with no chance before the fight on here and if you go back and watch the fight he was extremely average ability wise IMO. Other than rocking AJ in the 2nd he was poor. So to go from a domestic clash with an opponent of Whytes quality to a 'World title' fight just shows the state of boxing right now.

And the hype train rolls on

Your conclusion being based on......?

Chis was seen as average/domestic, it was only when Fury went on to bigger things (with many think Chis troubled him/shoud've won their first) and Chis performed so well versus old Vit that people suddenly labelled him some kind of gate-keeper.

Fury had to go the distance with Kevin Johnston who took the fight on 18 days notice

Joshua got him out in 2 rounds, although admittedly it was an older and probably less motivated version of Johnson, but Joshua did something to him that no one had ever done before.

Could you ever see someone like John McDermott giving Joshua a hard time like he did to Fury?

Fury clowned around the ring against Wlad who was terrified to engage and "won" an absolutely dreadful fight.

Fury flatters to deceive.

AJ within 3 rounds if they met tonight

TopHat24/7 wrote:

DAVE667 wrote:

kingraf wrote:AJ has the reach advantage. Do think Wlad probably hits harder when he unloads though. Think AJ is less afraid to throw in the tank since he hasn't
A - Been knocked to heaven (Sanders)
B - Gassed. BAD (Brewster)

A - hasn't fought a fighter with quick hands and nothing to lose
B - been drugged, nay, poisoned during a fight.

??????

Thought everyone knew Wlad claimed to have been drugged/poisoned during the fight as a reason for him stumbling around the ring

Ah ok, didn't know that and it wasn't on the wiki page when I googled it.....

TopHat24/7 wrote:Ah ok, didn't know that and it wasn't on the wiki page when I googled it.....

Aah, wiki, where any sane person immediately heads for when they want the facts

Lol because 'facts' are what K2's drugging claim are about........??

TopHat24/7 wrote:Lol because 'facts' are what K2's drugging claim are about........??

No, the "FACT" is that Wlad claimed to have been drugged. Never been proved, but that's what they claimed.

Clearly wasn't considered sufficient enough for the tomes of Wikipedia!!

TopHat24/7 wrote:

EX7EY wrote:Some people saying the Whyte win will all depend on what Whyte goes on to do.  While obviously true, Whyte is average at best.  So I doubt very much he will be a stand out name on AJ's resume at the end of his career.

Whyte was written off with no chance before the fight on here and if you go back and watch the fight he was extremely average ability wise IMO. Other than rocking AJ in the 2nd he was poor. So to go from a domestic clash with an opponent of Whytes quality to a 'World title' fight just shows the state of boxing right now.

And the hype train rolls on

Your conclusion being based on......?

Chis was seen as average/domestic, it was only when Fury went on to bigger things (with many think Chis troubled him/shoud've won their first) and Chis performed so well versus old Vit that people suddenly labelled him some kind of gate-keeper.

My conclusion is based on watching him fight. And watching him fight Joshua. He lacks basic fundamentals which resulted in him spending a lot of the fight off balance and there for the taking, and he's unfit as well.

TopHat24/7 wrote:Clearly wasn't considered sufficient enough for the tomes of Wikipedia!!

Neither is reliable information of any sort for a whole host of topics so I wouldn't feel too let down by its omission.

AdamT wrote:This will sound stupid, but does Wlad maybe have more, or at least as much punch power as AJ? He just has a habit of not putting everything into his shots, because of a fear of being hit back.

That's a very astute point. Klitschko hits as hard as AJ (from what we can tell without actually being punched by them both). They just have different mentalities. When Klitschko has let fly he's usually had devastating results.

I'd also favour Fury to win right now (and this year). Good chin, game, awkward as hell and more experienced. It's a good fight but it could be a great fight in 18 months (should Fury repeat his win over Wlad and AJ ping Haye out).

"He looks the part and finishes guys off... I'm just not getting too excited yet. This time next year I will likely blow smoke up his hole as well, if he beats all in front of him."

Oooh, I say!

EX7EY wrote:

TopHat24/7 wrote:

EX7EY wrote:Some people saying the Whyte win will all depend on what Whyte goes on to do.  While obviously true, Whyte is average at best.  So I doubt very much he will be a stand out name on AJ's resume at the end of his career.

Whyte was written off with no chance before the fight on here and if you go back and watch the fight he was extremely average ability wise IMO. Other than rocking AJ in the 2nd he was poor. So to go from a domestic clash with an opponent of Whytes quality to a 'World title' fight just shows the state of boxing right now.

And the hype train rolls on

Your conclusion being based on......?

Chis was seen as average/domestic, it was only when Fury went on to bigger things (with many think Chis troubled him/shoud've won their first) and Chis performed so well versus old Vit that people suddenly labelled him some kind of gate-keeper.

My conclusion is based on watching him fight. And watching him fight Joshua. He lacks basic fundamentals which resulted in him spending a lot of the fight off balance and there for the taking, and he's unfit as well.

But not based on watching Fury fight, presumably? Or their performances versus both shared and similar opponenents?

FYI there are 16 semi-conscious men who'd love you to pop round and point out all those fundamental failings in AJ's technique which they could/should have taken advantage of.

Curious how you 'know' he's unfit too.  He's got to the 3rd round only twice and the 7th round once in his career.  Whilst there are understandable concerns that someone so muscled might suffer fatigue (not evidenced by his numerous training videos which he posts) he's shown no evidence of it thus far (compared to, say, Haye in his first world title fighter or, later, versus Chisora).

Made a pretty good muppet of myself there!

I think Whyte isn't special, but he's enough to be dangerous on today's scene, would like to see him in with some other Top10-15 guys to see.