Derby Preview

Well children the day is almost upon us,arguably the third biggest day in the racing calendar(National and Gold Cup days are bigger).Ive been through the runners and i'll give a little resume as i see them.

CARLTON HOUSE; trip seems to offer no fears on his breeding and run style.Won the Dante,which has been a good pointer in the past.The injury scare is an obvious concern,this allied to his price make him an easy passover for me,although id love the Queen to finally win the Blue Riband.
CASTLEMORRIS KING; what on earth is this doing running in the Derby?
MARHABA MAYLOON;has slightly more chance than the one above,enough said.
MASKED MARVEL;will relish the extra furlong here,has shown form on a twisting,undulating track(Goodwood) and although he needs to improve by quite a way to get involved i dont think hes a totally forlorn hope of hitting a place.
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE;solid second to Recital first time up,bred to get this and more but whilst stable also rans have gone well in this before i think its a big leap of faith to see him getting into the mix in this.
NATIVE KHAN;for me he has the best form on offer,his 2000 third is really solid top flight stuff but did he honestly look like a Derby type at Newmarket? If he can translate that effort to this longer trip then hes a massive player,think hes one of those that will either win or completely bomb out.
OCEAN WAR;nice type with a progressive profile,trip will be fine and on formlines he has a better chance than Masked Marvel(through Namibian).No forlorn hope.
PISCO SOUR;cant beat the two who finished in front of him in the Dante and his overall form isnt good enough.
POUR MOI;trip fine but big question over quick ground,all his best form is with cut.Strong end to end gallop would suit but he offers no value at all in my book,connections have talked him up but can he deliver? Not for me.
RECITAL;won the Derrinstown but looked anything but an easy ride.Picked by Fallon,who defended his awkward head carriage and wayward tendencies,but in racing parlance he looked real dog to me.Wouldnt back him with counterfeit money.
SEVILLE;smart 2yo form and ran a solid race in the Dante but whilst that messy affair wouldnt have suited this fellow the same as it didnt suit the favourite there still doesnt seem any plausible reason as to why he should reverse placings with the Queens colt.The longer trip will be a plus and he looks a straightforward ride.Solid chance nevertheless.
TREASURE BEACH;nice win in the Chester Vase shows that a tight,turning track offers no fears but his overall form drops well short of winning this.
VADAMAR;third to Pour Moi last time but impressive before that,beautifully bred,trip will be a big plus.Trainer said he wasnt right on his last start.Think he offers better value than the other French raider.

Overall i think its a very open affair regardless of what the market says,as usual all the value is squeezed out of the market in the final days before the race.Couldnt back Carlton House because of his "injury" scare,Pour Moi is no value at all,Recital wants avoiding like the plague.I havent had a bet as yet but if pushed id back Native Khan to win,if he can produce at 12 what he did over 8 then he will just have to much toe for this lot and have a couple of little ews on Masked Marvel and Ocean War.

good write up racingnut

whether Carlton House is fit or not I think the quality is perhaps a little lacking this year, but I think we have been spoilt with some good Derby winners in recent years. Sea the Stars the obvious high point.

there are so many negatives amongst most of the principal runners I think I will just be having a small win bet on Carlton House - but that is partly due to the fact that I will be at Epsom tomorrow, and it obviously it will be a memorable occasion should the Queens horse win.

Memphis Tennesse could run a big race I think, and I agree that Native Khan could also get in the shake up

Firstly, I think it is a same that the best horse, Frankel, isn't running in turf's Blue Riband event. Frankel ran away with the 2000 Guineas but in a slow time that Sea The Stars. Frankel's sire and grand sire suggest he would be more likely to stay then Sea The Stars pedigree suggested. I still think that Frankel could be held up and could have won a Derby. He was held up at the back in the Royal Lodge. The Native Khan's camp are unsure if their horse will stay but have said you never know until you try and I think the same ideology should have applied to Frankel.

On the Derby, I can't see past Carlton House. He won the Dante going away from the field and hadn't even been fully asked. I am sure, like Workforce last year, he will come on from his Dante run too.

I think his nearest rivals and the movers in the betting market will be Recital and Native Khan. Recital looks very quirky and reminds me a little of Gypsy King. He seems the best of the Ballydoyle runners but I'm not too sure how well the Ballysax and Derristown Derby Trial form has worked out?

Native Khan is looking to become the first grey to win the race since ??? (I don't know) and will certainly be backed after Johnny Murtagh's win in the Oaks on Dancing Rain.

Of the rest I think Seville and Pisco Sour have to be considered each way.

So is anyone going to go for the 1000/1 bet with William Hill that if Carlton House wins the Queen will do a backflip?

A blanket finish with less than 2l covering the first five(bad sign).Pour Moi came from another parish to win,a tremendous effort in the circumstances.Treasure Beach ran a lifetime best and looked like collecting for much of the last two furlongs,Carlton House had a slightly troubled passage but he got first run and a four length start off the winner at the three and still couldnt win,no excuses.Memphis Tennessee ran a screamer from the front,like At First Sight last year he looked as though hed slipped them at Tattenham Corner but just ran on empty the last 200yds.Native Khan travelled sweet throughout and looked a threat around the three pole but he couldnt quicken again from the furlong marker,you cant say he didnt stay because hes finished up close to the placed horses but it maybe that 10f is his absolute optimum.
Pour Moi could be an extremely useful colt,he came from way back and showed a proper change of gear.The jury will remain out until we see them run again as far as im concerned.Is he a champion or the best of a moderate bunch?

Carlton House, best horse in the race, constantly bumped out wide unlike Pour Moi who had a smooth passage around the outside. Then losing a shoe inside the final furlong would have cost him even further. Can't wait for the rematch when Carlton House shows his true colours.

Just watched the race again three or four times and then watched it slow rewind(no i havent gone daft).Im going to stick my neck on the block,i reckon the second,third and fifth(Treasure Beach,Carlton House and Native Khan) were "used up" earlier than their jockeys would have liked because they had to close down the leader,Memphis Tennessee when it became obvious(at the three pole) that he was a real contender.As a consequence i think the three above and Memphis ran on fumes the last 150 yds,this allied to the winners burst in the last furlong probably gave the impression that Pour Moi was going a rate quicker than he actually was.Not knocking his performance but i think this race "fell " for him in the way it was run.The first seven home are covered by around 5l,kneejerk reaction would be to say that they are all a much of a muchness.The rematch,if and when it ever takes place,will certainly be interesting.
Cant leave without mentioned the clown on top,if he was my horse he'd never throw a leg over it again.Ride the race right out then if you happen to win do your celebrating,i know hes only young but thats no excuse,hes a professional horseman.Rant over

Having poured over it again and again im certain that in trying to close down the longtime leader,Memphis Tennessee,the second,third and fifth have paid for it in the last furlong.Their positions respective to each other hardly vary in the last 200 yds,Memphis Tennessee is weakening very gradually(as you would expect having being ridden ultra positively),the only horses going forward are the winner,Pour Moi and the seventh,Vadamar.If you get the chance then watch it again,when the tap goes on as they enter the straight its Carlton House and Native Khan who quicken up really well,the winner is on the outside,having his lugs scrubbed off and going nowhere,its only when they properly level out that Pour Moi begins to close and its only the last 100yds,when the front four are on empty that he truly looks like hes going to ge there. You cant be certain of anything but unless my eyes have totally gone,Carlton House if allowed to delay his challenge just 150 yds longer may well have broken the Queens Derby hoodoo.The best 3yo doesnt always win the Derby,the race is littered with horses who didnt pull it off at Epsom but proved themselves later in the year,i reckon Carlton House is one of those.A rematch at the Curragh looks unlikely as Pour Moi will almost certainly be put away and saved for the Arc,a shame undoubtedly but i for one am looking forward to at least three or four of the protagonists from yesterday doing battle again.

I agree with your summary racingnut.
basically the leading horses just couldnt get up that final stretch at Epsom which can be unforgiving. I must say that the french horse flew home though and I would certainly rate his chances in the Arc although he would need to be a bit closer to the pace in that I think. I still think this is a poor classic generation - with the exception of Frankel.

having looked at the race again the start looks to have cost Carlton House together with his poor draw.

anyway it was a fantastic day at Epsom, one of the warmest I can remember there, my rapidly melting ice cream was proof of that!

Aldaniti_Champion wrote:Carlton House, best horse in the race, constantly bumped out wide unlike Pour Moi who had a smooth passage around the outside. Then losing a shoe inside the final furlong would have cost him even further. Can't wait for the rematch when Carlton House shows his true colours.

Have to disagree....Pour Moi was by far the best horse in the race. He gave Carlton House 5 lengths about 2 furlongs out and beat him by one with the jockey pulling his head back 25 yards from the line.

Pour Moi looks a very capable horse and even though i doubt he can beat So You Think or Workforce in an Arc he is trained by a multi time Arc winning trainer in Fabre who is very likely to squeeeze more improvement out of the horse.

As regards Carlton House i have to say that Ryan Moore shouldnt be complaining about the 'rags' getting in his way. Everyone knew that Maharba and Castlemorris were going to be left around Tattenham corner so why was Moore in behind him. His own mistake in my opinion....but ultimately not the losing of the race because Pour Moi would have won even with Carlton getting the run of the race.

racingnut wrote:Just watched the race again three or four times and then watched it slow rewind...
Cant leave without mentioned the clown on top,if he was my horse he'd never throw a leg over it again.Ride the race right out then if you happen to win do your celebrating,i know hes only young but thats no excuse,hes a professional horseman.Rant over

If you look at the grass there is a line drawn across from the racing post. If you look closely there is also a partial line going across about 50yards before the winning post. Young Barcelona has mistaken this as the winning line. Certainly the young guy is a showman, but if he had lost with this premature celebration the whole world would have been down on his head.

Just put it down to the over-excuberance of youth, running & winning his first Derby.

I think that maybe Barzelona thought Carlton House was ahead and when he passed him he had won.

I think he simply didn't spot Treasure Beach.

He also has previous as i remember him celebrating early when he won the UAE Derby on Khawlah from Master of the Hounds on world cup night.