Irish Derby

Sunday brings us the second round of the middle distance colts Classics.Quantity wise its a little disappointing but almost everything that you hoped would be there is,only the Derby winner swerves the issue.Much debate,claim and counterclaim appeared in the aftermath of a thrilling Epsom renewal and maybe tomorrow somes records will be put straight or it might be that they all finish in exactly the order they did around the roller coaster rim on the Surrey downs.Heres my take on the big race tomorrow.
CARLTON HOUSE; went into the Derby with solid looking form and ran a very taking race.Injury scare and a less than clear passage have been put up as reasons for him not winning and i did say in the immediate aftermath of the race that if his run could have been delayed a shade longer and he hadnt been forced wide then he would have gone closer.He was branded unlucky,i think unfortunate is more apt,Dancing Brave was unlucky as he was so obviously the best horse in his renewal,was Carlton House so obvously the best horse in this years renewal? I dont think so.Still brings cracking form to this event,ground should be okay and i for one dont hold the theory about a lack of stamina.He looks the one to beat but 5/4 is particularly skinny.
DUNBOYNE EXPRESS;solid form as a juvenile and a nice reappearance led to him going into the Irish 2000 with very live claims but he didnt get into the mix behind Roderic Oconnor.Trainer stated that this would be his next target,stamina looks okay and he will handle any cut in the ground but it would take a great leap of faith to see him being good enough.
MEMPHIS TENNESSEE;ran a lifetimes best at Epsom,going clear early on and then looking like he might actually hold on.Tired in the final 150yds to finish a very honourable fourth.Arguably the only one of the front four to get a clear run at Epsom but he had to do all his own donkey work.Will he get away again?He strikes me as one who will be committed a long way out and on this less demanding track will he last home better? Or was his Epsom run a total flash in the pan?I think hes very hard to weigh up as horses have done what he did at Epsom before and then never come close to it again.If it wasnt a one off then 12s is a big price.
NATIVE KHAN;carried the Nuts money at Epsom and in truth ran a very pleasing race,coming through with Carlton House but just treading water in the final 100 yds.Solid Classic form in the book over 8 and 12 but he thrives on quick ground and he isnt going to get that here.The less demanding track may help but on this occasion he is easily passed over.Better ground over a stiff 10 will suit his strengths.
NOTABLE GRADUATE;nice performer in the right level but this looks at least one class too far.Will handle the ground and trip will be a doddle but he just doesnt look good enough.
RODERIC OCONNOR;total enigma of a colt,had classy two year old form but got very upset before the 2000 and ran deplorably.Proved that all wrong with a really gutsy win the Irish version.Handled ground with cut no problem but trip is a concern,his run in the Prix du Jockey Club was a shade flat,i had him down for not staying.Still think he has major stamina issues and i reckon hes one of those that only does it when he wants.Too many imponderables,so he is passed over.
SEVILLE;really solid efforts at two and ran a cracker in the Dante on his debut as a 3yo but his Derby effort was very lacklustre.Never travelled and didnt get into the race.That just cant have been his true form,the track was muted as an excuse so this more straight forward course should be more to his liking.If you forgive him his Derby effort then his brings strong credentials to this event,no forlorn hope.
TREASURE BEACH;promise as a 2yo then won what was looked upon at the time as a weak Chester Vase but then went to Epsom and ran out of his skin.Looked for all the world like he was going to hold on,only to be mugged close home.Form doesnt look "flukey" and the horse he beat at Chester has come out and won at the Royal meeting.In fact the whole Derby form,ones that ran in the race itself,in one of the trails or in fact both have franked it.He must be a major player.

Making excuses for beaten horses is the quickest way to the poor house,ive always believed that if A beats B at Epsom then he will beat him anywhere.No absolutely cast iron reason to think that Carlton House can beat Treasure Beach and at the prices,5/4 Carlton,3/1 Treasure then it really is a no brainer.I take Treasure beach to uphold his Epsom run and Seville to prove his run all wrong.
1.Treasure Beach
2.Seville
3.Carlton House.

sounds good to me

pauline1981 wrote:sounds good to me

Hi Pauline,

Welcome to our racing pages.......we have a tipping competition every Saturday.....you are very welcome to join in : )

Interesting write up, Racing Nut, thanks : )

Solerina

Treasure Beach is the one and i agree on Seville as he can't possibly be as bad as the Epsom run.

Amazingly i just about got it right in my preview! The Derby form was upheld and if truth be told they have run almost to the pound with Treasure Beach beating Carlton House just a shade further than at Epsom,Memphis Tennessee was on the premises again and only Seville showing massive improvement on his Derby effort and Native Khan running below par(certainly the ground) had a big swing on their form from Epsom.As at Epsom there seemed no fluke about the result,they went a steadily increasing pace from the go and everything had a clear passage,the front four all had a shot at it in the straight but Treasure Beach just had that little bit extra in the last half furlong.Seville ran a cracker and although its folly to say he didnt stay it might be that a stiff 10 is his best trip,Memphis Tennessee looks a real galloping sort and surely the Leger is on his horizon.As for Carlton House,well the jury is out for me,cant have it that he didnt stay and he has form on ground with cut so that cant be offered as an excuse,to be honest i thought of the front four it was he who had the run of the race,perfect pitch all the way round,lovely clear run up the outside but he found little for pressure.On the day just not good enough,he may find it hard from now on as all the big pots for 3yo only have gone bar the Leger.
Todays race just strengthens my belief that the 3yo colts form over 12 is solid if unspectacular,cant have it that any of them are out of the ordinary.They will need their full water on to trouble the older brigade in the months ahead.

racingnut wrote:Amazingly i just about got it right in my preview!

Well done, Racing

and well done Captain!

Captain Charisma wrote:
Treasure Beach is the one and i agree on Seville

Solerina

Now the dust has settled on yesterdays Curragh showdown,the connections of the fourth,Carlton House,have stated that he ran "flat" and he will be dropped in trip.Unless my eyes have totally gone then it wouldnt have mattered if yesterdays race was over any trip from 7 furlongs to a mile and three quarters,Carlton House wouldnt have won at any distance.Making excuses for beaten horses is easy,he looked to have a few after his unfortunate Epsom run but he looked to have none yesterday.The form worked out very well and he was only beaten a shade further than he was at Epsom,maybe the hard race he had in the Derby had left its mark but to say he needs a drop in trip is for me at least a little premature.If he does drop in trip then where does he go? The Juddmonte? Sorry but hes got no chance against the top flight 10 f around at present and after that you only have the Irish Champion and the QIPCO Champion left.Hes a nowhere to go horse at present.

Maybe a over a mile and hope the faster pace allows him to come home strongly................

Captain Charisma wrote:Maybe a over a mile and hope the faster pace allows him to come home strongly................

Yeh I'm sure Frankel is shaking in his boots.......