Wawrinka v Murray : RG Semi-Final 2016

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I think this deserves its own thread. It's a match up we haven't seen before in a slam semi-final and their first meeting at RG. In my view, it's very hard to call: 

Overall H2H : Murray 8-7 Wawrinka
Clay H2H : Murray 0-3 Wawrinka
Slam H2H : Murray 2-2 Wawrinka

Stan has won the last three matches, all in straight sets. These include a 61 62 demolition in Monte Carlo 13. I think it's fair to say there are questions over Andy's back both for that loss and the US loss later that year. However, they were still very comprehensive.

I think Stan goes into this as favourite. He's the reigning champion and he's looked more consistent in this event. Couple that with the recent and clay H2H and he rightfully holds the edge. However, it's definitely not a lock. If Stan is anywhere sort of his peak level then Andy will have a shot. Andy needs to serve well and make sure he's aggressive throughout. If he can get control, then Stan's defence obviously isn't his best feature. If Andy tries to grind it out the probability is that he will lose. Stan can power through him and (since Norman at least) he's both physically and mentally rock solid. He won't lose the match - Andy will need to win it.

Fun fact - neither player has ever lost a SF to anyone other than the big 3. Something has to give!

Murray just read Wawrinka's serve and play and was solid on his own serve. This gave Murray the advantage in the actual match.

Certainly one of Murray's best-ever GS results today. Very aggressive, great court movement, few unforced errors.
OK, Stan was nowhere near his best and the conditions were probably not in his favour. But for the most part, he was outplayed, particularly in the second and fourth sets.
Will Andy bt Djoko? Well I would make Djoko favourite, but for the first time - I think - Andy will be playing a GS final against a guy who has NOT won that particular tournament before. Djoko is bound to be more nervous than usual.
Obviously it would be a lot easier if Murray was playing a GS final against anyone other than guys called wither Roger or Novak. I think he has to really go for it. Really attack. And if he loses then so be it. But he should give it his best shot.

sirfredperry wrote:Certainly one of Murray's best-ever GS results today. Very aggressive, great court movement, few unforced errors.
  OK, Stan was nowhere near his best and the conditions were probably not in his favour. But for the most part, he was outplayed, particularly in the second and fourth sets.
  Will Andy bt Djoko? Well I would make Djoko favourite, but for the first time - I think - Andy will be playing a GS final against a guy who has NOT won that particular tournament before. Djoko is bound to be more nervous than usual.
  Obviously it would be a lot easier if Murray was playing a GS final against anyone other than guys called wither Roger or Novak. I think he has to really go for it. Really attack. And if he loses then so be it. But he should give it his best shot.

I don't agree about Stan being nowhere near his best. Read the comments and pre-match everyone was purring about Stan. The fact was Andy never allowed him into the match and got away his big shots more often than not before Stan did. In short Stan was not allowed to play his best.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

sirfredperry wrote:Certainly one of Murray's best-ever GS results today. Very aggressive, great court movement, few unforced errors.
  OK, Stan was nowhere near his best and the conditions were probably not in his favour. But for the most part, he was outplayed, particularly in the second and fourth sets.
  Will Andy bt Djoko? Well I would make Djoko favourite, but for the first time - I think - Andy will be playing a GS final against a guy who has NOT won that particular tournament before. Djoko is bound to be more nervous than usual.
  Obviously it would be a lot easier if Murray was playing a GS final against anyone other than guys called wither Roger or Novak. I think he has to really go for it. Really attack. And if he loses then so be it. But he should give it his best shot.

I don't agree about Stan being nowhere near his best. Read the comments and pre-match everyone was purring about Stan. The fact was Andy never allowed him into the match and got away his big shots more often than not before Stan did. In short Stan was not allowed to play his best.

Exactaly - He was not allowed to play the way he would have liked and as for the conditions they were there for both