Murray - Fed Semi Final preview

Murray Perspective :-

As the draw opened up nicely Murray didn't have to unleash any of his weapons in the first week of the tournament, while everybody expected his QF to be an easy st.sets not even the hardest of Murray fan would have imagined it would have been this easy, Murray unleashed his fury over a pity full Chardy for demonstrating his new improved forehand by series of winners from both wings, Murray was not even happy to let Chardy earn a point even on his own serve. Looked like he wanted a point to prove to French man who had his numbers last time around.

Strengths -
1]Improved Forehand, looked devastating against Chardy
2]Consistent First serve
3]Wheels, Murray hardly sweat inspite of running for every point, the intensity of running round the court could only be matched by Ferrer at the moment.
4]Belief , with the monkey of the back after USO win, Murray looks deadly to me.
5]Returns , right now arguably the best in the tour.

Weakness -
1]Second Serve, Chardy was just too bad to punish him on all occasions but even he did on many occasions, stand and deliver return
2]Focus drop, for some reason Murray drops focus in the mid match, leading 4-0 he drops focus to let his opponent comeback, serving for the match he get broken when Chardy himself has given up Murray comes with a double fault to gift the break to the opponent.
3]Nervousness, Murray need to overcome his nervousness against his boogeyman in slams.

Opportunities -
1]Double Back Hand - Arguably one of the best in the modern game, but for some reason its not at its best shape in this tournament, even several commentators pointed it out, down the line shots would work wonders.
2]Multiple GS champ - A title which he would really like to have and could inspire him to do better.
3]Ambition of being NO.1 - Murray clearly believes he could become no.1 in the future, what better time than now, a win here would boost his chances big time.

Threats -
1]Lack of tests - means Murray's actual weapons are untested in this tournament so far, its really hard to say how good it would be against Fed/Nole.
2]Fed still looks hungry
3]Not much practice at the night session.

Federer Perspective

Strength -
1]Hunger to compete - Fed no longer worried about results or records and playing pressure free tennis and loving his fights over young cubs.
2]Knows the opponent game - Fed exactly know what he needs to do to win a game let alone Match against Murray.
3]Serve - Arguably the best after Sampras, and undoubtedly the best for any player above 30 to played the game.

Weakness
1]Movement - Age is catching up and the movement is not as fluid as it used to be, while Tomic and Raonic exposed a bit Tsonga exposed it big time with flurry of winners both wings.
2]To the Backhand strategy - Murray has learned this trick early and has used to his strengths
3]Focus drop - Like Murray Fed's focus do drop in between matches, he is suddenly worried what his twin daughters doing outside watching his game.

Opportunities -
1]Absence of chief tormentor - Nadal's absence means Fed knows the title is in his racket and his to lose.
2]Aggressive pace - New aggressive pace of play gives opponent no time to breath let alone think a strategy when thinks do go planned, should use it wisely against Murray.
3]Nothing to prove mindset - pressure free Fed is ultra dangerous on court.

Threats
1]Stamina - Bit cooked after Tsonga match
2]Tough draw taking his toll.

Over all Murray in view starts Favorite by 70-30 margin, I like both players and hence this view coming from neutral perspective. Both have their strength but I guess the draw at some point should take its toll on the soon to be 32 year old. However given Fed's capability and the will to win he won't make it any easier for Murray, if for some reason Murray comes nervous and Fed brings his A-game he will cook him for the breakfast in st. sets.
To me its Murray's match to lose, confident young man at his prime against an old guard, prediction would love Fed to win but Murray to win easy.

Very good article.

But I disagree, I think Fed could win this.

btw this article can be merged with luciusmann's.

Slight edge to Murray at the moment. I don't see that Federer is Murray's bogeyman, he has a positive overall head to head and beat hm soundly at the Olympics. And I don't see that the tournament is on Federer's racket, Djokovic is the favourite.

I do think it is a good article though.

Henman Bill wrote:Slight edge to Murray at the moment. I don't see that Federer is Murray's bogeyman, he has a positive overall head to head and beat hm soundly at the Olympics. And I don't see that the tournament is on Federer's racket, Djokovic is the favourite.

I do think it is a good article though.

Djoko is the favourite, but Fed always believed Nadal is the only guy who can actually stop him when he brings his A-game.

Fed is Murray's boogeyman only in slams not in general, Murray is yet to beat Fed in a slam where as he got wins over other nemesis at slams.

It Must Be Love wrote:Very good article.

But I disagree, I think Fed could win this.

btw this article can be merged with luciusmann's.

Thx, I didn't notice his thread frankly speaking, but this match can afford to have two or more threads

Murray lost 2 finals to Fed in slams when he wasn't mentally ready for it, and was inexperienced. His last won was much closer, and the roof may have been decisive.

The Olympics was on a par with a slam to many players, and at a similar venue, and Murray won that.

Henman Bill wrote:Murray lost 2 finals to Fed in slams when he wasn't mentally ready for it, and was inexperienced. His last won was much closer, and the roof may have been decisive.

The Olympics was on a par with a slam to many players, and at a similar venue, and Murray won that.

OK lemme put it this way, Fed is the boogeyman for Murray in stats at slams and hence Murray would love to notch a win over Fed more than other nemesis.

However I don't consider Olympic as par to slams at all, I don't even put it on par along the WTF, its slightly on par with masters.

it'll go at least 5 if not then probably 6.

If there is more wind on the court then obviously Murray is favourite but if not federer should be able to outfox the lanky coyote.

Murray has been averaging 65% on first serves in which is impressive. However, he can ill afford to take too much pace off the first serve. He needs to crank it up if possible because Federer on the return has been immense this tournament. What also looked dangerous was how Federer increased the tempo in the 5th set. He seems to be conserving his energy in matches very well and economical.

Murray has to jump on the Federer second serve. Tsonga let him off on many second serves. Federer did show some nerves on his serve. Especially after breaking Tsonga. No doubt Federer will go after the Murray FH, but I doubt it will breakdown like the Tsonga BH did today. In the 5th set definitely.

The Federer BH hasn't shown many signs it breaks down quicker than it has in the past. He is looking formidable at the net. For me Murray will try and pass Federer at the net and not try and slice the ball like Tsonga did. Murray must also avoid playing short length balls up the deuce court because Federer will eat them up.

If Murray can play a consistent length, force Feds on to the BH wing and attack the second serve, he could break his Slam Fed duck.

Josiah Maiestas wrote:it'll go at least 5 if not then probably 6.

If there is more wind on the court then obviously Murray is favourite but if not federer should be able to outfox the lanky coyote.

I agree JM, its really gonna be a tricky match, I really want to see the best out of both players, on the other hand I wish Ferrer could outlast Djoko in the semi's , do any body here think it could happen? LF/JHM thinks it could happen if Tornado, Tsunami's and Twisters all put together.

legendkillarV2 wrote:
Murray has to jump on the Federer second serve. Tsonga let him off on many second serves. Federer did show some nerves on his serve. Especially after breaking Tsonga. No doubt Federer will go after the Murray FH, but I doubt it will breakdown like the Tsonga BH did today. In the 5th set definitely. If Murray can play a consistent length, force Feds on to the BH wing and attack the second serve, he could break his Slam Fed duck.

The point I really wanted to insist but forgot during the writing poor me , yea excellent point LK , Murray need to punish Fed's second serve the very similar way his second serve getting punished, Fed won't give easy second serve every time but Murray have to sieze whenever [in my view 50% atleast] the opportunity rises.

Nice article!

LK summed it up pretty well for me as well. I think Federer's key strategy needs to be to serve extremely well, as he has done, and attack the net whenever possible. He's looked excellent at the net, and more importantly it was a tactic that paid dividends at Wimbledon last time out - I think he came in 63 times, or something equally insane. It could work again, provided the one-two punch is working nicely

Murray's got to get Federer moving laterally, keep him pinned in the backhand corner and force him to go for the high percentage down the line BH in order to hit outright winners. If he doesn't keep good length on his groundstrokes and leaves too many short balls in the midcourt, it just invites Federer in and Murray will be roasted alive.

Murray's forehand does look to be a real weapon at this tournament though, he's really worked on it. I used to joke that he could barely hit an inside-out forehand, but he certainly can now and has used it to devastating effect at times. He looks intense, but all bets are off this late in the tournament.

I think it'll be over in 4 sets, first two split and then someone running away with it.

invisiblecoolers wrote:...but Murray have to cease whenever [in my view 50% atleast] the opportunity rises.

Cease? I don't get it. Are you typing on a phone? Was that suggested by predictive testicles?

I predict a sombre day for the RF camp - a three set procession for the muscle of Murray, with his added mental strength from the US Open. I don´t think RF will get into Murray´s head, where he needs to be to be able to win.

Silver wrote:Nice article!

LK summed it up pretty well for me as well. I think Federer's key strategy needs to be to serve extremely well, as he has done, and attack the net whenever possible. He's looked excellent at the net, and more importantly it was a tactic that paid dividends at Wimbledon last time out - I think he came in 63 times, or something equally insane. It could work again, provided the one-two punch is working nicely

Murray's got to get Federer moving laterally, keep him pinned in the backhand corner and force him to go for the high percentage down the line BH in order to hit outright winners. If he doesn't keep good length on his groundstrokes and leaves too many short balls in the midcourt, it just invites Federer in and Murray will be roasted alive.

Murray's forehand does look to be a real weapon at this tournament though, he's really worked on it. I used to joke that he could barely hit an inside-out forehand, but he certainly can now and has used it to devastating effect at times. He looks intense, but all bets are off this late in the tournament.

I think it'll be over in 4 sets, first two split and then someone running away with it.

Thx Silver , appreciated

Yes Muzza forehand is ripping through the opponents, credit to Lendll if he really worked on it to help Murray improve it.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:...but Murray have to cease whenever [in my view 50% atleast] the opportunity rises.

Cease? I don't get it. Are you typing on a phone? Was that suggested by predictive testicles?

My bad, I used to speak to text software and it understood my word Sieze as cease , I edited it now

Tropicalfruiter wrote:I predict a sombre day for the RF camp - a three set procession for the muscle of Murray, with his added mental strength from the US Open. I don´t think RF will get into Murray´s head, where he needs to be to be able to win.

I more or less see the same way, its difficult to see outside Muzza for the finals, but you never know with Fed. 70-30 in Murray's favour.

I can't bring myself to support Murray over Fed (especially now that he has a slam) though I will support whoever wins this in the finals. I think Murray's best is the best so it's really on his racquet.

OK here's a little reminder for everyone out there who is of the opinion Murray will easily beat Federer.

Murray hasn't beaten Federer in any of the three previous meetings and has so far taken just one set.

I'll stick my neck out on the line a little bit here then. He'll probably get at least one more set, maybe two and potentially might beat Federer. But beat him easily? Doubtful.

break_in_the_fifth wrote: I think Murray's best is the best so it's really on his racquet.

Thats an interesting , I like that statement but not sure how many would agree to it.

newballs wrote:OK here's a little reminder for everyone out there who is of the opinion Murray will easily beat Federer.

Murray hasn't beaten Federer in any of the three previous meetings and has so far taken just one set.

I'll stick my neck out on the line a little bit here then. He'll probably get at least one more set, maybe two and potentially might beat Federer. But beat him easily? Doubtful.

Except for my last statement nobody felt it would be easy win for Murray, even I don't think so it would be easy for Murray but the score might suggest as if it was easy for Murray, lets see, honestly would love to see Fed win it but don't think so it gonna happen.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:
Murray has to jump on the Federer second serve. Tsonga let him off on many second serves. Federer did show some nerves on his serve. Especially after breaking Tsonga. No doubt Federer will go after the Murray FH, but I doubt it will breakdown like the Tsonga BH did today. In the 5th set definitely. If Murray can play a consistent length, force Feds on to the BH wing and attack the second serve, he could break his Slam Fed duck.

The point I really wanted to insist but forgot during the writing poor me , yea excellent point LK , Murray need to punish Fed's second serve the very similar way his second serve getting punished, Fed won't give easy second serve every time but Murray have to sieze whenever [in my view 50% atleast] the opportunity rises.

Thanks IC and Silver too

It is a decent and thought provoking article. I was going to do something similar with stats and then I got frustrated at the time it was taking and gave up

If Murray plays like he did in Shanghai v the Fed then Roger will be in deep trouble. I don't think anyone's ever assaulted Federer's second serve like Andy did that day. For me, the serve is the critical aspect of the match. Murray's returns are normally good enough to get one break per set so if he keeps his first serve percentage 65% + he has a good chance. It will not be an easy match for either player. I just hope it's not raining

Actually its after a very long time I did an article like this, I guess I owe 606v2 something and gave it shot.

The Special Juan wrote:If Murray plays like he did in Shanghai v the Fed then Roger will be in deep trouble. I don't think anyone's ever assaulted Federer's second serve like Andy did that day. For me, the serve is the critical aspect of the match. Murray's returns are normally good enough to get one break per set so if he keeps his first serve percentage 65% + he has a good chance. It will not be an easy match for either player. I just hope it's not raining

I guess Murray is playing that level and more or less Fed the same Shanghai level, it would be interesting to see Fed play the Wimbledon level and Andy play the USO level

invisiblecoolers wrote:Actually its after a very long time I did an article like this, I guess I owe 606v2 something and gave it shot.

The Special Juan wrote:If Murray plays like he did in Shanghai v the Fed then Roger will be in deep trouble. I don't think anyone's ever assaulted Federer's second serve like Andy did that day. For me, the serve is the critical aspect of the match. Murray's returns are normally good enough to get one break per set so if he keeps his first serve percentage 65% + he has a good chance. It will not be an easy match for either player. I just hope it's not raining

I guess Murray is playing that level and more or less Fed the same Shanghai level, it would be interesting to see Fed play the Wimbledon level and Andy play the USO level

Oh absolutely. The Fed v Murray matches are normally great so if they were to both turn up at peak form it would be a special match indeed.

SO TSJ what does you mind say regarding the outcome? will Murray close it out.

I am really struggling to call it as both players have played some great tennis and some mediocre tennis at times during this tournament. I'm not sure I buy into this theory of players being "undercooked" but if it's true, Murray's not been really tested (except by himself) but on the flip side has been on the court less time than Federer. Roger's made light work of potentially tricky opponents; Raonic was apparently injured but the way he just picked up his level against Tsonga in the 5th was vintage Federer.

The match will come down to a few points here and there with the serve being the main battleground I feel. I'll go with Murray but that's probably heart over head!!

The Special Juan wrote:I am really struggling to call it as both players have played some great tennis and some mediocre tennis at times during this tournament. I'm not sure I buy into this theory of players being "undercooked" but if it's true, Murray's not been really tested (except by himself)

Some players relish the challenges and play better with more challenges offered, Rafa a perfect example, on the contemporary some players play better when they run through the opponents, Fed is the perfect example. In Murray's case at times when his draw opens up pretty badly he has made a mess out of it but he could have still made a mess out of it even if he had tougher draw so its difficult to say from Murray's case which is the better scenario for him.

The Special Juan wrote:The match will come down to a few points here and there with the serve being the main battleground I feel. I'll go with Murray but that's probably heart over head!!

More or less same here, head says Murray win however heart wants a Fed win.

The interesting thing about most of their match ups is they've been fairly one sided. If you think of all their slam encounters, only Wimbledon last year was close-ish. The other slam meetings Federer has won easily.

The Olympics was one sided for Murray, as was Shanghai. And the WTF, whilst very tight in the first set ended up fairly straight forward. It seems that when one if them plays really well, the other can't cope. Such a close record between them and yet not many of them have gone to the wire.

For Murray it's very much about the basics. First serve around 65% or more and return well and I'd fancy him... But then Roger has looked tremendous at times these last 10 days, and if he is at the top of his game and moving well only Rafa can beat him IMO.

I would just edge it to Federer, but it's so close to call. Momentum is a key thing. I think the winner of the first set has won 4 of the last 5 meetings, so they will both know how important the start is.


To conclude, Federer in 4 sets.... Though that might be the pessimism of an Aston Villa fan speaking.

Good review Danny, yea most of the time the matches have been one sided, I hardy saw a match where both player played the entire match of 5 sets to their fullest potential, the closest I can remember is Wim 2007, Wim 2008, AO 2012.

I wish this be a cracker, coz I am more excited for this match than the finals.

No worries LK

I saw earlier that Fed's in his 10th consecutive Australian Open SF, something that's scarcely believable. What's interesting is that his worst SF conversion rate is at the AO - he's made it 9 times in the past, and 'only' got through to the final five times. Even his RG record is better than that, with the same number of finals and fewer SFs, although obviously he's only won the title once there.

Good omen for Murray fans? Not that I believe in omens and the Australian Open is now the only slam where Fed has that SF streak going strong, after last years loss to Berdych at the US Open.

wow thats impressive stats, thx for the share Silver, thats a scary stats.

I forgot to add "Good thread IC". I'm too self-centered!!

The Special Juan wrote:I forgot to add "Good thread IC". I'm too self-centered!!

Thx TSJ

Btw we got the reasons now why Fed could lose, coz he didn't have breakfast for the last 2 weeks [Hawk Eye confirms it] now Murray should be ultra favourite to win the semi-final.

invisiblecoolers wrote:Btw we got the reasons now why Fed could lose, coz he didn't have breakfast for the last 2 weeks [Hawk Eye confirms it] now Murray should be ultra favourite to win the semi-final.

Ah but Fed wears those jet-propelled pink shoelaces to increase his pace.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:Btw we got the reasons now why Fed could lose, coz he didn't have breakfast for the last 2 weeks [Hawk Eye confirms it] now Murray should be ultra favourite to win the semi-final.

Ah but Fed wears those jet-propelled pink shoelaces to increase his pace.

It's a well-known fact amongst distance runners that the more fluorescent your outfit - especially the shoes - the faster you'll be on race day Murray should come out dressed as a traffic warden and he'll have it in the bag!

Faster you run out of the court or faster he runs out of Melbourne?

invisiblecoolers wrote:However I don't consider Olympic as par to slams at all, I don't even put it on par along the WTF, its slightly on par with masters.

Fed / Nole / Murray & Del Potro did though and that's what's important. Indeed, I'd argue that Roger wanted it more than any Slam since he once the French

Great article though and these two are now so closely matched I have no idea - but think that Andy has something in the tank

Incidentally, I would have thought (and said so at the time) that an Olympic loss would have been a big blow to Andy

I'm sure I heard some comment (unconfirmed) that the pink shoelaces are connected to one of the cancer charities.

IIRC he is not the only one to have worn them at this AO.

Cant see Murray losing to Federer now that Federer has had that long 5 setter V Tsonga in the previous round.

gboycottnut wrote:Cant see Murray losing to Federer now that Federer has had that long 5 setter V Tsonga in the previous round.

Nonsense. Watch the Tsonga match and in the dying points there was a rally (after 3 hours 25 minutes) when Fed was dashing here, there and everywhere and ended up winning the point against a sluggish looking Tsonga who is about four years his junior.

CaledonianCraig wrote:

gboycottnut wrote:Cant see Murray losing to Federer now that Federer has had that long 5 setter V Tsonga in the previous round.

Nonsense. Watch the Tsonga match and in the dying points there was a rally (after 3 hours 25 minutes) when Fed was dashing here, there and everywhere and ended up winning the point against a sluggish looking Tsonga who is about four years his junior.

Doing this when warmed up with the muscles relaxed during a match is one thing, but coming out the next day or the day after to do this is a much harder thing to do, just ask Richard Krajicek.

I don't see the Tsonga match having any bearing - it was five sets, but only 3 1/2 hours or so, and the 5th wasn't overly tense.

A long 5-setter against Murray (should he win it) might affect his chances in the final, but I don't see the Tsonga match affecting the semi.

I like Fed more as a player, but as a Brit I like to see Murray do well, and there's something about his straightforward and non-conformist approach to life that I like to see in a British tennis player too.

I'm pretty neutral then, and I have Murray as the marginal favourite. I think he has the better chance against Djoko over 5 sets at the Aus Open too.

I agree with Danny - despite the promise and what they can do, these two rarely seem to serve up a ding-dong - it tends to be that one of them gets the upper hand and the other looks like he's running across the surface of a pond full of molten marshmallows.

JuliusHMarx wrote:I don't see the Tsonga match having any bearing - it was five sets, but only 3 1/2 hours or so, and the 5th wasn't overly tense.

A long 5-setter against Murray (should he win it) might affect his chances in the final, but I don't see the Tsonga match affecting the semi.

Well this semi final clash is very similar to the Olympic Final between these 2 players whereby Murray entered it in a good and fresh state both Physically and Mentally (having beaten World No 1 Novak Djokovic in the semi-Final) whilst Federer entered that Final perhaps a bit jaded and tired as is going to be the case on Friday. It doesn't matter who you are as any Five Set match is bound to have an impact physically on a player.

Seems like a coin toss too me.
Federer favours the faster court, but has spent more time on court, although also has more experience this year of the night games.

Murray, if he can serve well, might be that fraction sharper on the day due to easier games, but at the same time, may suffer from the lack of a serious challenge.

Could be very interesting but 51% to Murray I think.

I agree with JHM that the Tsonga match wasn't as taxing as it might have been but nevertheless recovering from any five-setter is inevitably that much tougher once you're past 30.

The only recent (within last thirty years or so, a span of 120 Slams) example of a player winning a Slam when aged older than Federer current age is, I believe, Agassi - and at the AO. But Agassi was perhaps fortunate in never facing a top tenner that year and then coming up against a Finalist ranked only 36 .........

lags72 wrote:I'm sure I heard some comment (unconfirmed) that the pink shoelaces are connected to one of the cancer charities.

IIRC he is not the only one to have worn them at this AO.

I think Chardy was wearing them too but I'm not 100% on that.

Looking back I've actually been impressed by Murray so far

He did just what he needed to in the early rounds - what's the point of showing your best stuff and making Fed aware, when there is no need? OK so, getting into rythmn on the day could be a problem

But then he moved through the gears against Simon, who despite being handicaped is no slouch

However, I was actually impressed by how he handled Chardy, who came back at him all guns blazing. Andy's response? To play his best stuff since the US Open

Fed's on fire though - so a close one