US Open - day 13 - mens' final - preview and match commentary

Djokovic v Wawrinka. I'm looking forward to this match - Djoko vs Stan has to be the best rivalry in the mens' game at the moment - they consistently serve up some great matches. Weird to think that Wawrinka was match point down against Dan Evans back in the 3rd round - that match was a real 'winning ugly' performance for Stan to get through, and since then, he's shown real resilience, and more than a few flashes of brilliance in beating Del Potro and Nishikori.

Djoko on the other hand has had a bizarre run to the final - all those opponents withdrawing, and the real oddity of the match with Monfils. Djokovic isn't looking too shabby at moment, but he's not had the real tests that Wawrinka has had - a real lack of matches with any intensity.

A win for either player would be significant - for Djokovic it would take him up to 13 slams, within striking distance of Nadal (and Sampras') haul of 14, and keep the dream of overhauling Federer as a long (but still possible) shot. For Wawrinka, it would be massive achievement - winning 3 slams at 3 separate tournaments. He's unlikely to complete the set of slams at Wimbledon, but still, he'd join some pretty illustrious company of winning 3 out of the 4 slams. If he wins I'd still put Murray ahead of him in terms of career achievements, but not by a big margin.

Onto the match itself, I'm going to go for Djokovic, in 5 sets, but I really wouldn't be surprised if Stan wins. I think this is a real 50:50 match.

If Wawrinka can bring the power, similar to Monfils, to Djokovic, it is tough to see Djokovic winning the trophy.

Wawrinka, unlike Djokovic, has been battle-hardened.

I think I'd have Murray ahead of Stan even if Stan got 4 slams (well, assuming he didn't get Wimbledon so he was still missing one) to Murray's 3.

If the Wawrinka of his previous two slams finals turns up I think he has a good chance of winning. However he is such an enigma you don't know what you are going to get from him.

Just as we have no idea which Stan will turn up, we also have little clue as to how Djoko will play when pushed. The number one has had one of the easiest passages to a GS final for many years.
Stan is the kind of guy who, if he plays really well, will beat anyone. Agree with the view that this is a 50-50 match. You'd fancy Djoko to be favourite against almost anybody else.

The interest will be how Djokovic will react if pushed but there again will we learn anything if Stan does win? I mean Stan (in the past) has shown he can beat Novak in crunch matches so another Stan win could be just the way it goes and nothing too much to do with Novak's current mindset and condition - unless he loses in straight sets of course.

For all the brilliance of Stan at RG15, Novak played poorly by his standards. If Novak is near his best, he wins. That said, all the evidence points to Novak carrying various injuries and it's hard to see him hitting peak form in the final. I'm going for Novak in 3 but if Stan can keep it close, I think he will come through a long match.

Although Wawrinka doesn't often get to finals his conversion rate in finals is very good - apparently according to the on-court interviewer after his semi-final ... Wawrinka has won his last ten finals.

Born Slippy wrote:For all the brilliance of Stan at RG15, Novak played poorly by his standards. If Novak is near his best, he wins. That said, all the evidence points to Novak carrying various injuries and it's hard to see him hitting peak form in the final. I'm going for Novak in 3 but if Stan can keep it close, I think he will come through a long match.

Total BS...

The reason Djokovic didn't 'play well' during the FO15 final was because Wawrinka didn't allow him up play his normal game. Wawrinka literally blasted him off the court.

Agree with Jermaine here. Djoko was playing well but Stan just blasted him off the court. If Djoko wasnt playing well, he wont even win the first set.

Djoko in BO5 is not the same as Djoko in BO3 on clay; while in BO3 he would come out all guns blazing and tried to finish the match in straight sets, in BO5 he just couldnt do that and so there were ups and downs during a BO5 match, leading or misleading some to think that he wasnt playing well.

I would say most players are like that in BO5 unless vs low ranked opponents where there're huge differences in levels. On clay, only Nadal during his heydays could maintain a consistently high level throughout a match, be it BO3 or BO5.

Starting with AO13, Stan and Nole played five matches in the slams.  Novak won three of them (all three went five sets) and Stan won two (one in five and the other in four sets).  In other words, their slam matches have been extremely competitive and close.

During the same period, they also played five matches outside of slams.  In those, Stan won a total of one set and lost ten sets.  In none of the sets he lost he did better than 4:6.  In other words, their non-slam matches have been close to wipeouts.

I think Djokovic must overall be considered the favorite.  I see two possibilities.  Either Stan is playing at his best, in which case it will be roughly 50/50 (and perhaps even slightly better than that for Stan, if Novak is less than 100% physically or mentally).  Or Stan is not playing at his best, in which case he loses, regardless of how well or poorly Novak is playing.

So far, in a really big match in a big tournament, at least in a slam final, Stan just does not turn up and play a stinker. He has managed to get his off days into early rounds of tournaments or minor tournaments, even though he has plenty of off days.

A win today might confirm he is nowadays as good as the other big four, just not as consistent.

What happened to your roof comment? I was just going to reply to it.

Anyway, about roofs:  I am not a huge fan of putting roofs over outdoors tournaments.  Even an open roof makes the stadium feel a little indoorsy - just does not feel "right" to me.  But I can appreciate that it is pretty miserable to have to postpone finals because of bad weather - and I myself was not too happy about Monday finals as that meant I had to miss most of them.

So, to me a roof is a necessary evil.  And, as far as roofs go, the one over the Arthur Ashe does not feel too bad to me.

summerblues wrote:What happened to your roof comment?  I was just going to reply to it.

I decided it was a dumb comment and so deleted it straight away. I was basically saying something like the stadium from above doesn't look very smart with the new roof and it looked better before, even though I can't really remember how exactly it looked before.

Roofs are the way forward, the only problem is very expensive. I even think more than 1 court with a roof is a decent idea at slams.

Stan managed to make the set close but his game deserted him in the TB again. So-so match so far. Djokovic quite steady if not spectacular and Stan had some good spells and some not so good ones.

Pretty low quality match so far. Novak serving poorly and making a lot of unexpected rally errors. Stan has just been generally wayward, bar a short spell in the first set.

Good. Hopefully Stan can step up and play good rest of the match.

Good. Hopefully Stan can step up and play good rest of the match.

Stan the Man takes the second set 6-4

Awful set from Novak. Got to make Stan favourite from here.

Djokovic ranting and raving continuously at his corner, very rare you see that

Djokovic being broken from 30-0 up at 1-0 in the early goings of the third set could be huge here. He looks shell shocked. Granted, Stan almost made a pig's ear of consolidating the break, but that backhand of his is really purring now. Just a wondrous shot when he's executing like this.

Wow. Djokovic and overheads still just don't get on, even after all these years. Could be a very brisk set....

Djokovic is showing no signs of ill health or injury. He looks fully fit. Wawrinka is just playing like he has done in previous grand slam finals.

Just imagine this could have been Dan Evans* in the final and overpowering Djokovic .

*Dan Evans had a match point against Wawrinka in their third round match.

Djokovic finally playing at somewhere close to his usual level. Very bizarre final this. Both really up and down.

Born Slippy wrote:Djokovic finally playing at somewhere close to his usual level. Very bizarre final this. Both really up and down.

No one is really imposing on their service game. First serve percentage is not particularly good from either. Wawrinka just seems to be playing the key points a little better ... but it is currently dead even one set all and on serve in the third.

Djokovic claws his way back from 40-0 down on the Wawrinka serve to get to deuce - then dumps a regulation forehand in to the net when in control of the point.

Novak is getting half-chances in every single Wawrinka service game. He's absolutely nowhere near his best, yet he's still there. If Wawrinka doesn't win this one he'll be kicking himself all the way back over the Atlantic, because Novak is there to be beaten at the moment and he can hardly buy a winner in comparison to Stan.

Standard has picked up in this set, although that miss from Novak Chris mentioned was horrendous. Fed must be gutted he didn't get this version of Novak last year!

Stan takes the third 7-5

Okay if Djokovic wins from here fair enough. So far Djokovic hasn't really had to play much or well to get to the final. But now the pressure is on Djokovic with Stan the Man leading two sets to one.

Novak may yet win this, but even if he does, he will - yet again - need five sets to do it.

Djokovic loses his serve from 30-0 up again, and loses the third set with it!

To be fair, if Novak had taken that set it would have been a real steal. Less than half the amount of winners from him there than came off the racquet of Wawrinka.

I'm not ruling Djokovic out just yet. This ain't like the French Open last year, where Wawrinka was just playing computer game tennis throughout sets 2, 3 and 4. He's making mistakes and giving Djokovic plenty of chances, but he's just doing enough to keep his nose in front and, in fairness, is showing he's got plenty of balls on the pressure points.

....But even when Wawrinka isn't quite at his very best, that backhand is still so reliable. Two beauties on the backhand side in the opening game of the fourth.

Wow, that 3rd set was an odd one - loads of swings in momentum there - some absolute brilliant rallies interspersed with a few moments of mediocrity from both players. As someone else above mentioned, Stan has played the big points better. I think his tougher run to the final has made him bit sharper in those clutch situations.

Impressed with how Wawrinka closed it out in that set. Djokovic looks bit shaken here - if he goes down a break in next couple of service games this could be over quickly.

And there it is, Stan breaks to go 2-0 up in 4th set. Talk of the trainer coming on for Djokovic...

OK, maybe I will rule Djokovic out now after seeing that game! Some lovely serving from Wawrinka to race 3-0 ahead but Djokovic is hobbling, albeit his reluctance to call for the trainer suggests it's purely cramp and tiredness. Djokovic isn't chasing now.

If Novak wins from here, that Australian Open 2012 victory would pale away in to insignificance in comparison.

Tricky for Wawrinka to maintain concentration here - Djokovic is clearly struggling but you get the impression that he could come roaring back if Stan throws in a loose service game.

Very gutsy hold from Djokovic there. Not sure why he didn't call for the trainer after his previous service game if indeed it's an injury rather than just fatigue - it was big risk playing another game, because a double break there would have been irretrievable.

My take on MTOs is that they are all fake until proven otherwise. Even more so with players like Djoko who have had history.

Another medical time out from Djokovic. Blister on toe.

Remember, Djokovic took an MTO at 2:5 down in the fifth set of his USO 2012 final against Murray.

Djokovic suddenly playing a lot better following the MTO.

Wawrinka holds serve and withholds a post MTO Djokovic resurgence.

Big hold for Wawrinka there - really needed that after the delay. I think he's home and dry now, unless his level suddenly drops.

Blood seen seeping through the bandage around Djokovic's toe - so clear sign of an issue.

Wawrinka falls to 0-30 trying to serve it out. Surely not....

Yeah Djokovic has too much form to trust that MTO. It could have been an attempt to pause up the match as it was going away from him. It was at 3-1 I think, and then Stan had to wait to serve for 4-1. I think the idea worked, because Stan had the pause, and his level dropped, and he played a poor service game. However, Djokovic made errors, a fair number, and didn't takke advantage.