PGA Tour: From Napa to Malaysia: Notes from the Ballwasher

1).Last year's brand new PGA Tour season opened with a succession of rookie/first-time winners: Grillo, Kaufman, Thomas, Knox, Malnati until greybeard McDowell won one for the veterans.
Last week, in Napa's Safeway Open, it was mostly a battle of seasoned Pros, the lyrically named Cody Gribble the only newcomer to crack the leading dozen. And Brendan Steele relaxed on the practice range following a final round of 65 while his pursuers all fell short.
Steele is one of those golfers who can be relied upon to play well at certain courses, but struggle at most others. Sure enough, he was the 54-hole leader here last year only to stumble badly on Sunday, but made up for that this year, and earned his first win with a "conventional" putting style.

2).Paul Casey started off the new season just as he finished last season, with a Top 4 finish, T3 and $288K in his pocket. He's now registered 2nd, 2nd, 4th, T3 in his last four starts, banking $2.5M in the process, all without really looking like the winner.
But he's now earned $7.6M in two years and is rocketing up the career winnings charts, 72nd now and only $3M+ away from the all-important Top 50 which will afford Paul the safety net which was absent when he lost his card (except for Past Champions status) during injury-plagued years in the early 20teens. I wonder if that might influence him resuming his European Tour membership for 2018?

3).A Top Ten for Martin Laird as well, another one in form; and The Laird is making his customary strong start to the season. Missed cut for Seamus Power in his Tour debut.

4).Missed cut too for Gonzo, but here's a lovely piece from Doug Ferguson to compensate:
http://www.golfchannel.com/news/doug-ferguson/long-road-back-tour-fernandez-castano/?cid=Email_WednesdayNL_20161019

5).Last week's winners on the PGA Tour and Champions Tour are both Southern California boys with connections to Hollywood, Brendan Steele's uncle a soap opera actor (had also thought he was a Pinkerton rider leading a posse jumping from a train in Butch Cassidy, but can't find verification!) and Doug Garwood, the sun of a Gunsmoke undertaker.

That's the end of the Champions Tour regular season and next week will see the first of three "Play Off" events for the Charles Schwab Cup with the leading 72 money-winners (less an injured Corey Pavin) playing Sherwood Country Club's telegenic lay-out for the right to advance to Round 2 in Virginia. Strong European interest from:
Langer - 1st on the money-list
Jimenez - 2nd
Montgomerie - 4th
Parnevik - 25th
Broadhurst - 27th
Woosnam - 50th
Chapman - 57th
M-A Martin - 66th
Remesy just missed out in 74th position.

6).The Tour has announced a new tournament, to be contested in South Korea, for the 2017/18 season - further details to be released on Monday but that essentially gives the Tour an "Asian swing" with the CIMB & HSBC (four initials apparently a pre-requisite). Perhaps the fields for this and the CIMB will be expanded from the no-cut, limited field closed shop that "Malaysia" currently offers - otherwise, what's the point, other than to showcase the Tour's Asian members?

7).The World Golf Hall Of Fame opened its doors yesterday with phone calls to Davis Love, Meg Mallon, Lorena Ochoa, Ian Woosnam and a shout to the bar in the heavens where Henry Longhurst now resides. All inductees with various degrees of worthiness I'm sure, just wish they'd start catching up on golf course architects who have been largely ignored so far.

8).Adam Scott is teeing it up in Malaysia this week and thought this list of Tour wins since 2003 was interesting:
45: Woods
23: Singh
21: Mickelson
13: McIlroy & Adam Scott.

9).Malaysia's CIMB offers some double-dipping pros the golden opportunity to combine their trip to China for the HSBC Champions - as an absolute minimum, playing in both tournaments will yield:
2 starts (out of the minimum of 15 - or whatever it will be for Presidents Cup team members)
2 cuts
$54K in guaranteed loot
Ain't life grand?

10).And that's the largesse that Rafa Cabrera-Bello will earn as he embarks on his PGA Tour career. Your Ryder Cup performance suggests you belong on Tour and getting these two events out of the way early doors will greatly assist your scheduling next year. Keep your place in the owgr Top 50, play all the Majors and WGC's, and you'll only have to find six more starts.
Great to see the Spanish Armada grow this year to four: Sergio, Rafa, Jon Rahm and Gonzo. Good luck to all of them.

Ian Poulter is playing the CIMB, and is in the "provisional" field for next week's Sanderson Farms Championship, the "opposite field" shindig in Mississippi. So he's clearly looking to hit the ground running as he strives to satisfy the demands of his Medical Extension - a repeat of last week's first round in Macau would help. His dreadful weekend would not.
(No exaggeration to suggest that 5/12 of the winning 2014 Ryder Cup Team have essentially "disappeared": Bjorn, Donaldson, Dubuisson, Gallacher and Poults.)

Very surprised Poulter is playing in a opposite field event considering the discounted FEX points.

Robo: Did you ever find out whether players on Major Medical are earning FEX points based on 2015-16 levels or 2016-17 levels?

If you posted it already, I missed it.

GPB,
The other side of the Poulter opposite field point is that he was in prime position to win Puerto Rico last year - 54-hole leader I think and hanging on to that lead would have been the answer to a lot of problems!

GPB... yes, I confirmed from TWO sources that players on medicals will earn FE points based on the NEW scale going forward. Does not matter when the medical event happened, or that they may have started playing their medical on the old scale.

One other small point on the NEW FE points scale I failed to realize until I saw Ballengee comment on it.  The New FE point scales begin to diminish faster this year compared to last year at 15th place for regular events... but they don't start to diminish more on everything else (majors, players, alternate events) until the 21st place... not that it really makes much of a difference though.

Terrific set of notes as usual Kwini...

Another potentially interesting player in the CIMB field is 22 year-old Malaysian, Gavin Kyle Green. He's playing on his 2nd straight Sponsor's exemption, having already gotten one into the Safeway Open (where he MC'd).

Green played college golf at University of New Mexico and won 8 individual titles, garnered 3 All-American's (1 ea. 1st, 2nd & 3rd team) and was Mountain West POY while doing so. He represented Malaysia in the Olympics and breezed through his First Stage Web.Com Q-school qualifier at Dayton, NV, finishing 2nd out of 75 players with 25 advancing to stage two. Something that might be revealing about his character was his finishing 3 classes in the summer of 2015 to earn his degree WHILE going back and forth to play on the Asian Development Tour (ADT).

Speaking of the ADT. Green has done well enough in his first year he's all but guaranteed to gain full Asian Tour status regardless of how he plays in the 2 remaining ADT events. It would be nice to see him get his Web-com card, and I wonder what choices he'd make between the Asian and Web.com Tour's if he does.  Regardless, he's got some good developmental avenues available either way.

I was aware of him because of his UNM connection (I follow UNM and NMSU pretty closely), but apparently I'm not the only one as these sponsor exemptions indicate.  I guess the Safeway SE makes sense because playing college golf in N.M. he's probably familiar to Tournament directors in the western U.S.... and of course CIMB makes sense as he's from Kuala Lumpur.

Anyway... some things are pointing to him being a decent player someday... (college/amateur career, ADT first year success, and First Stage)... but the poor play at Silverado (2 shots from DFL in a missed cut)  keeps expectations to a moderate level.

GPB... RE Poulter in the Sanderson Farms. I wonder if a guy in Poulter's situation might actually be able to pull as many or even more points out of a fairly weak field of 132 players in the Sanderson Farms than he would be by playing in a stronger full field of say 156 players at the RSM?

If Poulter were to finish 5th in Sanderson Farms he would earn 65 points. He would need to finish 12th in the RSM to earn the same 65 points. There may be a case to be made that finishing 5th the SF is as easy as finishing 12th in the RSM. I dunno the answer, but this same kind of case has been made in the past RE how hard is it to earn more points in lower point ET events vs higher point, deeper field PGAT counterparts.

IMO, for a player like Poulter, finishing 5th in the Sanderson Farms is tougher than finishing 12th in the RSM Classic (or Shriners)

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
The other side of the Poulter opposite field point is that he was in prime position to win Puerto Rico last year - 54-hole leader I think and hanging on to that lead would have been the answer to a lot of problems!

and isn't that the enigma that is Ian Poulter in a nutshell? How Ian could be so strong in finishing out match play matches, yet so poor at doing the same in stroke play escapes me. It would be one thing to put up a helluva fight and lose, but the way Ian has completely booted so many stroke play opportunities is baffling.

Let's hope Poults plays all those events. Despite his previous somewhat galactico schedule, he tends to play better when he plays a lot.

Gavin Green has turned up in quite a few Asian-based tournaments, plus the ADT circuit - always confused him with a clothing brand . . . . and hadn't realised he was NCAA'ing it. Nice spot robo,

robopz wrote:

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
The other side of the Poulter opposite field point is that he was in prime position to win Puerto Rico last year - 54-hole leader I think and hanging on to that lead would have been the answer to a lot of problems!

and isn't that the enigma that is Ian Poulter in a nutshell?  How Ian could be so strong in finishing out match play matches, yet so poor at doing the same in stroke play escapes me. It would be one thing to put up a helluva fight and lose, but the way Ian has completely booted so many stroke play opportunities is baffling.

IMO, many golf fans rate match play success way too high when looking at Stroke Play results

Just did some back of the envelope analysis of Dustin Johnson (Vardon Winner) vs Brendan Steele (#72 in Adjusted Scoring Average) based on their 2015-16 scoring average.

#1 Dustin's non-adjusted Scoring Average was 69.48 with a Std Deviation of 3.38.
#72 Steele's non-adjusted Scoring Average was 70.89 with a Std Deviation of 3.58.

Based on one 18 hole match, Dustin is expected to win ~58% of the Head to Head to matches, Steele wins ~35% of the matches with the balance being halved.

expanding their scores to a 72 hole tournament, Dustin is expected to beat Steele 70% of the time, 26% to Steele with the balance being halved.

This is Top ranked golfer vs a player that generally does not qualify for Majors/WGCs. And Dustin is only a ~3:2 favorite.

Its not surprising that a player has a streak where he over-performs in match play. (law of large numbers) It just happened to be Poulter in the early part of this decade.

Disclaimer: I took a bunch of shortcuts to do the statistical analysis. I used all scores in the 2015-16 season (not just the scores in the common events)

GPB... I understand the point of your statistical analysis, and I'm not trying to equate winning probability of a match in match play to winning in stroke play.

My point on Poulter, is it's not all about winning when he's in contention, it's about at least playing to what should be the expected norm for the players doing well that week.  That may not be good enough to win, but it's not him necessarily giving it away either.  

But from what I can tell on Poulter from the 10 "in contention" chances I noted (starting the 4th round at T5 or better), he's far more apt to play well below the expected norm than play at or above it.  From what I can tell, he played significantly better than the average of the top-20 players going into 4th round just 2 times in those 10 chances, once slightly better, once about average, and 6 times worse than that average, 4 times in the bottom 1-5 out of roughly 20 players.   Stated in a way that might equate similar to match play... he's 3-6-1 against the average of the top-20 in those 10 final rounds where he started T5 or better.

And to be clear... I didn't take all of this and do a detailed, dead nat accurate analysis either... just going through each of the tournaments and making general comparisons and rough counts.  I could be off a little, but it's not much. And of course I realize this isn't a huge sample.

Well... Looks like it's gonna be a birdie fest extraordinair in Malaysia this week. Not surprising on a short track like this...  Pedal down boys... Oh... And I guess close to the ame in Portugal as well

Hate to keep bringing this up, but has the ET made any statement re the Turkish airlines Open security concerns yet? The event still appears to be on the schedule but I haven't heard or seen another word on this from either the ET or any of the expected field since this came up last week

http://golfweek.com/2016/10/14/european-tour-turkish-airlines-open-missile-attack-danger/

Haven't heard anything about "Turkey", but see that the combination of high summer heat, and rain, has ravaged the greens in Shanghai, according to the Golf Channel.
And Hoggard's Harbour Town update reckons they've lost 800 trees, especially on #2, #9, #10 and #16. But the course will reopen before Christmas, so that's a positive. I wonder if they might be able to re-site some tee-boxes to create different angles where strategic trees have come down? Can't really remember #2, a short Par-5, but trees are an integral part of the design of #9 and #16 and, to a slightly lesser extent at #10. Though the green could use a tad more sunlight!

Another strong performance from Paul Casey today in Kuala Lumpur; good start from Rafa, but a touch disappointing (71, in T44) for Poulter.
Others on the comeback trail from lengthy injury-related absences include Ishikawa and Perez.

I saw another report suggesting the players and those who know the course well will certainly notice the difference, but HT is so heavily tree'd, the vast majority of TV viewers and attendees won't notice the difference.

PS... Also saw some very positive reports about minimal issues with the Wilmington NC course they're using for the Wells Fargo this year.

Is Laird the Scottish CH3? Sort of seems like he plods along but actually really rakes it in and as a pretty good career.

I would like to see a list of Europeans with the most consecutive seasons on the PGAT where they kept their card. Laird could be up there with the likes of Brain Davis.


Nice work again this week Kwini.

So much for WGC being any better than regular events

Will McGirt eschews the WGC event in China to play in the Sanderson Farms PRO-AM

Since he is eligible for the HSBC, the PGATour prohibits him from playing the Sanderson Farms event (I did not know that).

But he did sign up to play in the Wednesday Pro-Am

http://mississippitoday.org/20...


=========

“One, I have no interest in flying halfway around the world to China to play in a golf tournament. Two, I want to support a tournament I love and a cause I believe in. So that’s what I am going to do.”

First, he had to clear it with the PGA Tour, which he did. The tour’s rules strictly forbid a golfer skipping a WGC event to play in another tour event. But there’s nothing in the rules about playing in the pro-am. So McGirt will take what he can get.

And so will the Sanderson Farms Championship.

“I was blown away when I heard about what Will wanted to do,” said Steve Jent, the Sanderson Farms Championship’s executive director. “To have that kind of support from a player is just phenomenal. It means a lot to us. Will is such a solid, solid individual. He’s gonna do what he believes in.”

==========

Good for Willie McGirt. And I didn't appreciate that "opposite field" wrinkle either. Interesting!


Mac,
Laird has won more tournaments (3) than CHIII (2), but has remained in the Top 125 all the time. But agree that his Tour career is starting to look pretty good - and to think that we started following him in 2007!

PS: My first two one-and-dones of the year are anagrams. Doubt I'll be able to repeat that.

you going to leave us hanging on the anagrams or do you expect us to figure it out.

GPB.... Don't see how McGirt not wanting to travel translates to WGCs not being more important than regular events... Except to McGirt on this one particular WGC. Still something like 43 outta top-50 entered in this HSBC which indicates his isn't a widely held opinion.

But all respect for McGirt... When asked about this a few days ago he responded he wasn't willing to give up the time away from his family... And i get it. He plays a lot even without the Asian swing.

A de-facto appearance fee of $50K can buy a lot of good will from players.

Plus any parlays that some players can swing from sponsors for showing up in Asia.

10 years from now, very few golf super fans are going to remember the winner of the 2016 HSBC tournament just like no one is going to remember who won the 2016 Safeway.

kwinigolfer wrote:Good for Willie McGirt. And I didn't appreciate that "opposite field" wrinkle either. Interesting!

Yes it is interesting... and that one had gotten past me as well... I thought this might be a new regulation... but going back a few years and spot checking it's been on the books and reads the same for quite a while now. Here's the regulation:

OPPOSITE EVENT POLICY
A PGA TOUR member who qualifies, as of the commitment deadline, for a limited
field, no cut, special tournament awarding official money shall not be eligible to
participate in an opposite PGA TOUR event should he elect not to play in the
limited field, no cut special tournament for which he has qualified.

GPB wrote:A de-facto appearance fee of $50K can buy a lot of good will from players.

Plus any parlays that some players can swing from sponsors for showing up in Asia.

10 years from now, very few golf super fans are going to remember the winner of the 2016 HSBC tournament just like no one is going to remember who won the 2016 Safeway.  

I would certainly agree the HSBC has certain unique challenges due to it's time of year and location, and has not reached the level of acceptance as the other 3 WGC's.

GPB,
If you're looking for help with the anagram, I'm not going to be asking you for crossword assistance . . . . . . least of all in Korean.

"Opposite event policy" definition wouldn't pass the Just A Minute litmus test . . . . . .

Ok "Na" and "An"

I was thinking anagrams of full names. But I could not find a player named Case Layup in the field.

Round of the day at the CIMB from Russell Knox, 63 and up to 3rd place. Casey & Sergio marking time with even par 72's but Poults in with a 69 and slowly climbing.

Confirmation that Poulter is in next week's Sanderson Farms Championship, in Mississippi. No-one else especially noteworthy but not a bad field for an "opposite" event.

Lahiri with a 4-stroke lead in Malaysia over Russell Knox (and Thomas). Two double-dippers making an early statement??!!

kwinigolfer wrote:Confirmation that Poulter is in next week's Sanderson Farms Championship, in Mississippi. No-one else especially noteworthy but not a bad field for an "opposite" event.

The PGATour website has made it very difficult to get an early look at the tournament fields.

GPB,
Same navigation as for the Safeway - they actually had the Sanderson field up promptly.
Chris Kirk playing after lacking lustre for the first six months of last year - could be well worth following, especially with the McGladrey to come.

Add Snedeker, Sullivan, Dufner & Ikeda to the ranks of HSBC no-shows. More to come?

Thomas shooting 8 under to defend the title. Impressing. But Lahiris quad 9 didn't exactly help his case - although he did rebound nicely after that.

And a timely back-door Top 20 (T17) for Poulter with birdies on his final 3 holes, good for 67 and a T17 finish.

Haven't seen the final "results" yet, but that's about one third of what he needs to satisfy the demands of his "medical extension". (Rightly or wrongly!)

Justin Thomas is ALL for PGA Tour expansion of more events in ASIA. He's 2 for 2 in Malaysia... Maybe he's becoming the PGA Tour's version of Lee Westwood?

JT can only wish . . . . . .

Well, it starts with a wish ... but I absolutely give Justin Thomas a better chance to win a major from this point forward than Lee Westwood.

Probably a better chance than Arnold Palmer too.
Snow in the hinterland Sr, McCauley will be opening soon!

kwinigolfer wrote:JT can only wish . . . . . .

Purely an play on JT's penchant for making his bones only in Asia... which is very much a Westwood trait of recent years...

Saw the same from an Old Forge webcam Kwin. Just put an offer in on a camp up there ... what am I thinking?!

Perhaps you were "thinking", "Perhaps Rory will be my neighbour!"?

Yup, Lee has pretty much won all over the world, except South America, I think. A couple of Major breaks and we'd be calling him an all-time great - as it is, known here as just a top European with a suspect short game who couldn't win the really big one. An unfair reflection of his career; would think his legacy is much greater than that.

Is Rory buying a place in Old Forge? If so, I would like to get word to him that we could combine our assets and then we'll both be rich. And get maximum waterfront!

You mean you'll buy the whole Chain of Lakes?

Nah, just harking back to Rory's sabbatical in the ADK's earlier in the summer.

Just occurred to me that, with his win in the Olympics, Justin Rose has won individual pro golf tournaments in the six inhabited continents.

Naturally Gary Player has done it. David Graham has done it.

I think there are a couple of others players but there names escape me at this time.

Looks like several Europeans have five; six is excessive!

Found another. Bernhard Langer.

Golf Channel confirmaton of the PGA Tour's latest foray into Asia:

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/pga-tour-unveils-new-official-event-korea

Once again, the Tour proving they' d rather be in Asia than in the northern tier states of the U.S.

Limited field, no cut, money for nothing. Anyone playing all three Asian events will really struggle not to cart home a minimum of $100K, and this initiative is surely to the detriment of the Safeway, Vegas, Sanderson, Mayakoba and McGladrey events.

Apparently Rory is going to play a Taylormade driver in China. It's interesting to see what equipment players would choose to use if they had no sponsorship obligations.

http://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2016/10/22/report-rory-mcilroy-play-taylormade-m2-driver-wgc-hsbc-champions-100852/

kwinigolfer wrote:Golf Channel confirmaton of the PGA Tour's latest foray into Asia:

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/golf-central-blog/pga-tour-unveils-new-official-event-korea

Once again, the Tour proving they' d rather be in Asia than in the northern tier states of the U.S.

Limited field, no cut, money for nothing. Anyone playing all three Asian events will really struggle not to cart home a minimum of $100K, and this initiative is surely to the detriment of the Safeway, Vegas, Sanderson, Mayakoba and McGladrey events.

Huge purse for the CJ Cup at $9.25 million... just 250k below the current WGC-HSBC, and $500k below the other 3 WGC's for this season. Also looks like the field will mirror the CIMB... same 78 players... same 60 off the PGAT FedExCup points list... with the other 18 spots to be determined. (CIMB does 10 off Asian Tour money list + 8 SE's)

Not sure how they fit this in... The current 7 fall PGAT events are sponsored through at least next fall. Shriner's is on thru 2017, OHL is signed through 2018 for Mayakoba... the other 5 are all sponsored through 2020 or beyond. We know the date of the CJ... Oct 16-22, 3 weeks after the President's Cup. And supposedly this is supposed to be the week before the HSBC (that's AP speculation). Only "convenient" ways I see that happening is to play the Safeway the week after the PC, then go CIMB, CJ, HSBC... then back to the America's... one other option is to play Safeway the week after the PC, one other event on this side, then CJ, HSBC, CIMB... then back to the Americas.