Wimbledon Preview

First topic message reminder :

I know it's early, so everything is coloured by the recent French Open, however, let's begin in earnest: who are the top contenders and how far will each go?

So far, I think we can say the top four are definite contenders to make the quarter finals, with Federer, Nadal & Djokovic as definites for the semis (but you never know, especially how losing to Federer might affect Djokovic).

The big question is, who will win?

Federer
He appears back on form and a key indicator will be if he wins in Halle, anything less, is worrying (every time he's won in Halle, he's usually gone on to win Wimbledon). It's probably fair to say Federer needs Wimbledon the most, grass is his favourite surface and he has something to prove and to be fair, if he wants to stay relevant, he needs a bit more than a cameo in the final (like at the French).

Nadal
Just fresh from another French Open suggests Nadal is on fire, regardless of the laboured victory (this was his closest final ever), however, grass is a different prospect and he did say himself he struggled on clay and that's his favourite surface. Will he struggle on grass too? Queens won't tell us that much and we might only get a flavour once he starts and even then, perhaps only in the second week might we really know what his chances are.

Djokovic
An unknown is how Djokovic will perform, we all know he's a consistently good player this year and he's definitely going to be world number 1 in the next month or two, the question is how he deals with his loss to Federer. Besides his loss, he's only ever got to the semis of Wimbledon and no further so the question is will he go one better and get to the final? It would be fascinating to see how he does and at the moment, we don't know where he's heading.

Overview
While the French Open had few surprises if we think about it (another Federer loss to Nadal, on his favourite surface clay), Wimbledon is a different prospect completely, as this is Federer's favourite surface. Both Nadal and Federer need it for different reasons: Nadal can hardly claim to be the greatest ever when most of his slams still are and were accumulated at Roland Garros (60% of them, -by way of comparison, Federer has won 37.5% of his slams are Wimbledon, a lot less). This only proves he is the greatest clay courter, a few slams at Wimbledon and one a piece at the others only underlines this. For Federer, he needs Wimbledon badly, not only is it his favourite slam and where it all began for him but it also offers his best chance of picking up a slam this year (perhaps alongside the US, but which is likely to be more competitive). If he were to show up short here, I'm sure it would dent his confidence somewhat, not by much, but a little dent makes all the difference, look at the US Open semi final last year and how he squandered match points. Djokovic needs a boost although I'm unsure Wimbledon is realistically going to provide it, although a good run is useful for him. I think Djokovic is and will be more interested in the US Open, but he won't go on record and say that.

What is everyone else's view? I'm a new poster btw, so always interested in what others have got to say about my posts.

I think it is important to stress that Federer's FO success was very much linked to those fast and heavy balls which allowed him to get a decent rhythm on his BH and keep the pace of his shots quite decent towards the baseline. Had they played with bigger or lighter ball, Djoko woudl have won pretty convincingly I feel, just bringing one ball too many on key points.


I am not sure Wimbledon will play as fast as the FO the second week. In fact I am pretty sure it won't...if they are using the same balls as last year as it seems to be the case.

If Nadal get through that first week, it's going to be pretty tough for Fed again.

luciusmann wrote:Okay lydian, just an ordinary fan, does that please you?

I joined yesterday, I've been reading for the past week regularly and infrequently before.

Not particularly, I dont need to be assumptively labelled regardless of who I'm a fan of.

Reading for the past week hey? You dont seem the reading type from your debating style...more the get stuck in type.

Who was talking of labels? Not me, only yourself? You've spent nearly all the posts I've come across discussing Nadal, but I admit, that's only been for a week although that's enough, as far as I'm concerned.

Debating style? I've read plenty, I'm a very well read chap, so keep your presumptions to yourself thanks.

lol...this is weird.

luciusmann wrote:That was a bit unkind, that wasn't my intention, no one deserves bad joints, it makes life that bit harder.

I am curious how Nadal will do Steveo77, I agree, Queens will give us some indication. A poor run there would be concerning but I'd have Nadal down as joint favourite with Federer, seems like a fair estimation. We'll only know towards the end of the second week where things are he
ading, so basically in 3 1/2 weeks time, I can't wait!

I dont see that Queens is necessarily a "yard stick" for how Nadal will do at Wimbledon.
He is playing both singles and doubles there... he lost to Feli Lopez last year but he still won Wimbledon

Why lydian? Must someone agree with what you say? I'm actually very fussy about details and I am a boffin with reading, I actually enjoy reading a lot (it's stimulating), I find it odd someone would suggest I'm not much of a reader or a thorough one at that. I might not agree with the posts I read but I always read them thoroughly and pick out the salient points to reply to, I wont reply to every point, because, let's face it, we all got other things to do in life.

Haddie-nuff, let me clarify, what I meant is if Nadal is competitive at Wimby, he's make the quarters @ Queens, he usually has. I don't think it's vital he has to win it like Fed would have to win Halle (which he has now withdrawn from, so we can't assess until he plays).

Frankly I dont think either of them much "care" about win or no win These tournaments are only used as a way of getting used to the change of surface.. not much chance before Wimbledon to get used to grass as we know. I think Roger his hiding his light under a bushel Im sure he has other grass courts in his home town he can practice on and I doubt he would want to go out again against Hewitt if he is not 100 per cent

I can understand Federer withdrawing from Halle, and also wouldn't be surprised if Nadal only puts in effort for a round or two at Queens before taking it a bit easy for a match and having another loss like the Lopez one from last year.

Won't mean diddly once we are into the 2nd week at Wimbledon.

A prediction - 3 of the top 4 seeds will make the SFs and the winner will come out of the top 4 (with Nadal and Federer being about equal favourites for me, and Djoko and Andy a bit behind). Don't want to guess which of the top 4 won't make it that far, but just feel that one of them will get turned over about R3 or R4.

Roddick and Berdych are probably the biggest dangers from lower in the rankings. I think Del P still has a bit to learn about moving on grass and shot production on balls that stay low.

With regard to the dangers posed by big servers early in the tournament, I think Federer is the least vulnerable to this (look at his record against Dr Ivo for example), but any of the other 3 might just have an off day and get into difficulties. Federer is more likely to struggle with a more all-round player who keeps the ball in court.

I think this thread raises some interesting points about how the top 3 and where they might be when Wimbledon comes around. I think obviously the big 4 will be in contention no doubt.

As an outisder of these 4, I would stick Andy Roddick in there and maybe Jurgen Melzer who won the doubles last year.

Other than that difficult to foresee without the draw.

I hope this thread does not turn into a he said/she said arguement like yesterday please.

I agree with both of the last two posters, these warm tournaments don't mean a great deal (to the players), I was simply pointing out they are indicators of potential performance.

We'd also have had a chance to see how they are taking to grass, sadly we won't see anything from Fed but will from Nadal. He should get through to the quarters without too much effort, which is why I'm observing. He has done since 2006 when he's participated and it's a fair bench mark. When Nadal is on fire like 2008, he wins the whole thing, but I doubt any of us think he's on fire this year.

Nevertheless, we will learn something about where Nadal & Murray are, that's all I was observing.

There are some very good points and some good posts being made here inbetween some rather silly 'one man up ship' posts.

Roddick is a big threat at Wimbledon and i honestly hope he does well but i think that Fed or Djork are the favourites.

Good win for Roddick - survived 35 aces from Lopez. Cant see him getting beyond quarters at Wimbers though, the 'big' guys have sussed his game out now and his serve although fast has become predictable, I also think his forehand isnt as strong as it used to be, its lost some penetration as he's westernised it over the years.

Lopez will be another guy the top seeds wont want to face at SW19.

My dark horse for Wimbledon is Soderling. Stefan Edberg said a few years ago that he would be very suprised if Soderling didnt win Wimbledon and thats some compliment.

Lydian
While I think your comments on Roddick are true (his serve has always been a bit predictable and he's not as good at placing it as the likes of Federer or even Nadal, who are often therefore as effective despite serving 25mph slower), the same thing was said a couple of years ago, and he came within a fag paper's width of winning an unexpected title. He still has the weight in his game to be effective on grass and especially if it is playing quickly. Not saying he'll repeat the performance, but he is one of the few players who is really at home on grass.

He only got to the QF's last year for the 1st time in 8 attempts...and his form is patchy this year so lets see how Soderling does at Halle to gauge his form.

Anyone think Melzer could have a good run, talented lefty who's underachieved badly but hitting good form this year?

True DH, his Queens record of course is great (although thats a faster grass court). But I think his game isnt as good as 2009 though, he's become a bit more wooden and I'm not sure the belief is there anymore for the big ones - maybe that huge loss to Federer is partly to blame, that must have killed him for a long time. But who knows...with that serve you can never discount him going far.

I cant honestly see Melzer doing too much lydian. A good player but really has not lived up to his potential.

Melzer is a late bloomer and he won the doubles last year. There is no reason why he can't be amongst the players left come the quarter finals stage.

Sorry, just cant see it legend. I do like his style of play though.

Yep agree LK...he seems to have his head screwed on well this year and only lost a very tight match at FO too. Interesting how the mens tour is throwing up loads of late bloomers or sustained players into late 20s and early 30s at a time when the tour is harder and faster than ever.

eirebilly the courts at Queens are playing fast this year. Lot's of serve and volleying happening. Watching the Roddick v Lopez match showed evidence of that. If the Wimbledon courts play anything like the same speed as Queens, I can see Melzer going deep as he is a good volleyer.

There something about Melzer that seems a bit soft to me. Not sure why exactly i feel that, because i know he gave Murray a good game in the USO and that victory over Djoko the other year was obviously good, although it had a lot to do with Djoko imo.

Personally the matchup id love to occur would be a good old Isner/Mahut mark 2.

Have we had a shock player go deep recently? - can't remember one at the FO - i guess dopolopolov at the AUS did well and technically fognini at the FO. Surely we're due another kraijek year at some point?

Tom, at Wimbledon I remember Clement making the semi's one year. 2008 I think.

It certainly looks as if the courts are playing fast which will suit Melzer's game legend but i just cant see him going far. I dont know why, i just dont.

As i said, i love his style of play, its perfect for Wimbledon.

I am still gutted that my favourite tennis player of all time (Pat Rafter) didnt win Wimbledon. He had the perfect game to do so.

When richard krajicek won Wimbledon it was'nt that big of a shock as he had been playing very well in the lead up and was playing very well. The big dissppointment for me was that he never really did that much after it.

In an interview on Duth tv, he said that he put so much effort into winning a wimbledon that it really affected his game on all other surfaces.

LK....the grass mix for SW19 and Queens is different, Queen's is faster due to the use of fescue (which Wimbledon used to use before they slowed them down).

Queen's: 50% ryegrass mix of 25% Bar Gold and 25% Bar Lady, 22.5% slender creeping red fescue, 22.5% strong creeping red fescue and 5% browntop bent
http://www.pitchcare.com/magazine/the-king-of-queen-s.html

SW19: 100% Perennial Ryegrass (previously 70% Rye/30% Creeping Red Fescue)
http://aeltc2010.wimbledon.org/en_GB/about/infosheets/grasscourts_general.html

Dang it. I do hope they speed the courts up at Wimbledon soon. Some serve and volley would be nice.

The court at queens really does look quite silky this year

Amazing quality arent they, can you imagine having lawns like those....

Delpo wasnt moving very well on the grass. Roddick looked good. I am not sure if Sod can win at Wimby. He is not showing the kind of fight he showed in 2009 and 2010.

I haven't seen Raonic playing on grass, he maybe able to bring up few surprises.

Andy can win the Wimby this time. Provided he overcomes Nadal in a potential semifinal.

Tenez wrote:I think it is important to stress that Federer's FO success was very much linked to those fast and heavy balls which allowed him to get a decent rhythm on his BH and keep the pace of his shots quite decent towards the baseline. Had they played with bigger or lighter ball, Djoko woudl have won pretty convincingly I feel, just bringing one ball too many on key points.


I am not sure Wimbledon will play as fast as the FO the second week. In fact I am pretty sure it won't...if they are using the same balls as last year as it seems to be the case.

If Nadal get through that first week, it's going to be pretty tough for Fed again.

Erm the pace isn't such an issue for Federer against Nadal as much as the bounce is. The bounce is what kills Federer against Nadal but recently he's handled it well. I expect Federer to go quite deep at Wimbledon this year and perhaps even win it if his serve holds up.

With the bounce issue the biggest change Wimbledon j was i think between 2001-2002 when they totally replaced the underlay soil on the courts for a substance that gave a more consistent bounce (remember all the bad bounces we used to get?) flip side of that is the balls bounces truer and better and also jacked up more taking pace off the shots. This spelt the end for serve volley being a % play and also marked the end of Henmans real success on grass.

The underlay is perhaps the most significant of all the changes made to the courts, but seldom gets mentioned

What ever your preview is, but i am sure Rafa will win Wimbledon 2011 as well.

You guys are great, good job lydian you broke down the grass composition like a seasoned groundskeeper. I really feel that on current form, I think Fed has got the best chance. If he hits for a high percentage of 1st serves from start to finish then I think he can get through this tournament.

thanks socal...lol

sambansal, it would be helpful if you explain why you think Nadal is your favourite.

I'd be interested in why you think that because no one has seen him play on grass yet and his clay court performance was good enough to win RG but was hardly a knock out performance like in 2008 and 2010.

not sure if its been mentioned alrerady but apparently Alastair McGowan is going to be helping the BBC coverage! What!?

Cant be any worse than Henman Hobo...and probably a whole lot better, at least he'll be entertaining in some way. Henman's punditry is made of pure teak.

I thought that Murray just MIGHT be in with a chance seeing as
how he reached the semis

Personally, I would want Andy to win Wimby. I am pretty sure that Andy has everything in him to be the no. 1 in the world.

Probably, the only thing which spearates him from Nadal is the presence of Uncle Toni in the player's box.

Come on Andy! This Wimby is yours.