Australian Open - Day Three

First topic message reminder :

The Australian Open moves into the Second Round on day three with the matches of interest being:-

Noah Rubin V Roger Federer - I'd be surprised if Rubin takes more than ten games off Roger here.

Andy Murray V Andrey Rublev - Murray will hope to improve a lot on his first round showing. Should be done and dusted in straight sets with not too much fuss.

Stan Wawrinka V Steve Johnson - Interesting match this. Johnson has the weapons and Wawrinka the tendency to implode so this could be close or Stan may blow him off the court. Stan to win in three for me.

Jeremy Chardy V Kei Nishikori - Kei will not want another long match and I think he'll win in straights as Chardy has dipped a bit from where he was a year or so ago.

Dan Evans V Marin Cilic - The smart money has to be on Cilic but an upset would not be a massive surprise. Cilic (like Wawrinka) can blow hot and cold so if Evans can keep each set tight he may make a big match of this. Cilic to win in four.

Guest82 wrote:Don't see Querrey being a problem for Murray, barring something extraordinary happening.  Murray deals with the big servers probably better than anyone else (including Djokovic).  

I actually think Murray may have had it too easy before a potential match with Nishikori or Berdych/Federer.  Mischa Zverev or Jaziri will follow Querrey - not exactly the toughest R4 opponent he will have ever played.  

Well Marchenko did push Murray in two of the three sets so that was a bit of a challenge. I would be surprised if Querrey (with his serve) doesn't at least make one set very tight and point taken about round four but if that ankle is injured in anyway he'd want quick matches regardless of needing a test.

Well it isn't written in stone (yet) that Evans will play Tomic. The No 27 seed Tomic is now involved in a scrap against Estrella Burgos. He leads 7-5 7-6 4-6 with two and a half hours played as they enter the fourth set.

I agree Guest82, Murray really isn't being tested and that is sometimes not ideal, particularly if he then has to play the likes of Nishikori. On the one hand he will be much fresher at that stage of the tournament but as a player you would surely want to be adequately tested before stepping up to play a top 10 player.

Murray is of course well used to all this but for Nishikori if he makes it that far, he has the positive memory of beating Murray in their last grand slam meeting (also on a hard court). I would still give Murray the edge but I think the best case scenario is for Querrey to give Murray a tough match, though ideally not a 5 setter for obvious reasons.

I will be interested to see how Novak plays tomorrow, by all accounts he was nothing special against Verdasco but I suppose he didn't need to be given the mistakes flying from fernandos racket!

Tomic about to serve to save the fourth set and he is moving gingerly. This could get interesting.

slashermcguirk wrote:I agree Guest82, Murray really isn't being tested and that is sometimes not ideal, particularly if he then has to play the likes of Nishikori. On the one hand he will be much fresher at that stage of the tournament but as a player you would surely want to be adequately tested before stepping up to play a top 10 player.

Murray is of course well used to all this but for Nishikori if he makes it that far, he has the positive memory of beating Murray in their last grand slam meeting (also on a hard court). I would still give Murray the edge but I think the best case scenario is for Querrey to give Murray a tough match, though ideally not a 5 setter for obvious reasons.

I will be interested to see how Novak plays tomorrow, by all accounts he was nothing special against Verdasco but I suppose he didn't need to be given the mistakes flying from fernandos racket!

Querrey has the weapons to make it interesting and if he gets hot for a while could easily take a set.

I always expect slams to get progressively harder, but it doesn't seem like that will be the case for Murray. Pretty big jump in quality from Zverev (M) or Jaziri to Nishikori. Like you, I expect Murray has enough quality and experience to deal with it. Nishikori also ran him very close at the O2 (I was there, brilliant match). Should he breeze through to the quarter finals he may suddenly find himself in a battle.

Well Dan Evans will play Tomic who has beaten Estrella Burgos in four sets in a match lasting almost three hours twenty minutes. That is a match that Evans will fancy his chances in.

I would expect Evans to win that one. Tomic is over rated, I know he is ranked higher than Evans but like Kyrgios he can go awol at any stage. Evans probably not as good a player but a far better temperament. I was about to say Tomic has home advantage but I know from friends who live over in oz that Tomic is far from being popular!

Great win for Dan Evans against Cilic - I didn't personally see it but listened to the 5Live Sports Extra commentary. From the commentary it really sounded like Cilic struggled with the Evans sliced backhand. It will be a different sort of match against Tomic - a player like Evans who also likes to change the pace and use a lot of slice - this match looks like it could go the distance. I give Tomic the edge, but only just.

As for Kyrgios I feel we may be reaching crossroads in his career. He's still young, but he's continuing to get headlines for the wrong reasons and if he carries on in the same vein he'll just be a streaky player - the odd big run in a slam but losing plenty of matches to players he shouldn't lose to throughout the year - kind of like a poor man's Marat Safin, which would be a shame given the talent he has. With his ability he ought to be closing in on a top 10 place by now.

MrInvisible wrote:kind of like a poor man's Marat Safin, which would be a shame given the talent he has.

Trust me Safin had oodles more talent than Kyrgios who is somewhat overrated as a dominant force in my book. Safin won 2 slams but actually underachieved. His AO05 win over Federer is one of the GREAT matches of Open Era. No way Kyrgios could reach that level, nor many others either!

Good win for Evans, that talent is turning into consistency now. You just know none of the top guys fancy facing him because he has all the shots and unpredictability. Weird that Nike has dropped him but I'm sure someone else will be signing him up soon. The Edmund vs Evans battle for GB#2 is doing wonders for them both! Can see them both in top 30 by YE.

Lydian - slightly disagree on your take on Kyrgios - I don't think many people are claiming him as a dominant force as such, but based on ability and the level he's played in some matches, I would say he is a potential future top 5 player at least. Whether he has the motivation to put the training in to make that happen remains to be seen.

Agree on Evans and Edmund - the battle for GB 2nd spot is really helping, though top 30 for both at year end might be a stretch too far (would be amazing if it happened though). I would also say that both have benefited from their experience in Davis Cup.

Kyrgios has talent to win a slam or two in the coming years but he doesn't have the mental attitude or discipline to succeed. That is my take on it. And he isnt one for taking advice either. He'll do as he pleases and to hell with everyone else is his attitude.