Australian Open - Day 12

Rafa against Dimi today, with everyone expecting/hoping for a Fedal final. Dimi has been playing well of late, but Rafa must be favourite. It could be a long one.

Go Rafa!

Judging purely on the scores it looks like one way traffic at the moment with Rafa leading 4-1 in the first set.

I have to confess my enormous pleasure at seeing the Fed make the final is significantly deflated by the certain knowledge that he will be at the wrong end of a good old-fashioned stuffing from Nadal on Sunday and that his cushion of 3 slams will be whittled away down to 2 with the prospect of going further.

Being more objective, this tournament has shown that those two are the most incredible tennis players and competitors - the ATP must be dreading the day when they eventually hang up their racquets.

Dimitrov has actually bottled the match away in the very first game...two break points, none taken.

Guest82 wrote:Dimitrov has actually bottled the match away in the very first game...two break points, none taken.

For goodness sakes, man! Every player in the history of the game misses break points. You can't be talking about "bottling" after the very first service game. It's a word that gets ridiculously overused in the social media age.

Hello...?

Nadal remains my hot/warm favourite for the match and the title, but I noted that behind the overwhelming 7-1 H2H, Dimitrov has usually taken a set off Nadal, the sole exception being a match on clay. Perennial victim though Dimitrov has been, Nadal has not been able to sweep him away.

You just can't DF on BP serving at 4-2 vs. Nadal (even a 30-yr-old Nadal) when a set down; my coach always used to talk about the 'vital 7th game' when I was younger...

You just can't DF on BP serving at 3-4....

Weird stuff from both guys.

Their matches are always tough. Dimitrov has often played very aggressive against Nadal and it works. He causes Nadal problems. Still has a chance to pinch the set here.

You just can't swing wildly at 15-30 and then 15-40.....

Topsy-turvey, but whilst it's an oddity for Nadal, it's more like a nightmare for Dimitrov

Wow - this is one of those moments when it's all right there 30-40, set point on the Nadal serve......

Oh my god that was in...

Framed...

Dimitrov has got to take this set in this game - if Nadal escapes 3 set-points it's tough to see how D can come back from here.

Surely that's a massive blow struck by Nadal - Dimitrov is going to find huge reserves of mental strength to get this back.

Well, that was a very odd set. No-one seemed to want to win it.
Might come down to who can control their nerves the most consistently.

Impressive from Dimitrov that he managed to take the set, but he should have won that so much easier... Handing Nadal back the break with two double faults, not able to consolidate a 2nd break. But maybe this shows that Rafa still hasn't got the highest confidence. If Dimitrov can manage to keep the match tight, he might have a chance!

Sheesh - game on.

@JuliusMarx, with Nadal at least, nerves tend to follow confidence in effectiveness of his game.  He tends to lose his nerves, and start stretching time, when he feels he's under pressure from his opponent. I know that's true for most players, but my point is that Nadal rarely allows the mere importance of the point or the game to ennerve him: to make Nadal nervous with adverse effect on his game the opponent has to be sowing doubt by pressing him out of his comfort zone.

If Dimitrov is going to win this, he will have made life v. difficult for himself, which is not usually the best way to defeat Nadal. Looks like the effort to take the 2nd set has sucked a bit out of Dimitrov.

For someone who is widely regarded as one of the mentally toughest competitors in the history of the sport, Nadal can be a real mental wreck as proven in his recent years of decline. There are quite a number of technical problems in his game, and it's much easier to sow the doubt in his mind and the errors flow, when he's not dropping mid-court moonballs.

Said it that if Federer brings his form against Nishikori into the final against Nadal, he will prevail. That's assuming of course that Dimitrov doesn't do the job first.

@mthierry - the difficulty for Fed vs. Nadal is the history between them where they both know how often, and on all surfaces, Nadal's go-to tactic of high spinny f/h to the Federer b/h has bought him points, time, and confidence and enabled him to ride out those periods when, as they both know will happen, Federer is unplayable.  

Hence your "if" in the sentence

if Federer brings his form against Nishikori into the final against Nadal, he will prevail."

is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

gotta hand it to Rafa
Most didn't reckon he'd be able to walk at 30. The big dog has still got it

It's a pretty close match.
Are people expecting Federer to do worse than Dimitrov (assuming Rafa wins the semi)?

I don't know.
I expect feferer to be more tired. He's also got lots more naggage

temporary21 wrote:I don't know.
I expect feferer to be more tired. He's also got lots more naggage

That would be Mirka

Very good

But in all seriousness. I don't know if fed would take the bh on as well as dimi. Who's playing very well

This leg thing he has also has me umming

JuliusHMarx wrote:It's a pretty close match.
Are people expecting Federer to do worse than Dimitrov (assuming Rafa wins the semi)?

Not necessarily - just the same result. Better or worse in terms of score, an "L" is an "L".

Match was already longer than Fed-Wawrinka 5-setter mid-way through this 4th. That could count on Sunday for whoever wins this. Never quite understood this 1-day difference between semis while both women's and first men's semis play within hours of each other. Sure, Nadal and Djokovic came through the disadvantage in '09 and '12, but it should be reviewed.

its not just the time. It's the mental effort expended. Adding to roger having a leg issue

mthierry wrote:Never quite understood this 1-day difference between semis while both women's and first men's semis play within hours of each other. Sure, Nadal and Djokovic came through the disadvantage in '09 and '12, but it should be reviewed.

The US Open Manic Weekend is far worse.

mthierry wrote: Never quite understood this 1-day difference between semis while both women's and first men's semis play within hours of each other. Sure, Nadal and Djokovic came through the disadvantage in '09 and '12, but it should be reviewed.

One word, "money".

In more detail - the organisers know that the television audience and advertising money drops for Tuesday and Thursday if they stage the fairer (traditional) format of: Tues women's qf, Wed men's qf, Thurs women's SF, Fri men's SF.

They think that the money compensates for the competitive distortion.

Dimitrov's resilience has surprised me. Annoying if you're a Rafa fan, but bodes well for "baby Fed's" future. He might do a Wawrinka and peak in his late 20's or even before.

mthierry wrote:Dimitrov's resilience has surprised me. Annoying if you're a Rafa fan, but bodes well for "baby Fed's" future. He might do a Wawrinka and peak in his late 20's or even before.

I am also surprised, and I hope that it marks a sea-change in the career of a talented and entertaining player.  His resilience may yet prove more than an annoyance if you're a Rafa fan.

Can't believe Nadal might possibly lose a 5-setter in a GS semi to Dimitrov.

The smart money is still on Rafa, but Grigor can still take a lot of heart from this match regardless of the result.

kemet wrote:The smart money is still on Rafa, but Grigor can still take a lot of heart from this match regardless of the result.

15-40 on D's serve in the opening game of the 5th says you are right.....

Grigor was bent, but not broken....not for the time being anyway

Nadal's last 3 slams losses have been 5-setters to Fognini, Verdasco and Pouille. Another here after being 1-0 and 2-1 up would get the questions rolling again about his vulnerability.

mthierry wrote:Nadal's last 3 slams losses have been 5-setters to Fognini, Verdasco and Pouille. Another here after being 1-0 and 2-1 up would get the questions rolling again about his vulnerability.

They are already rolling about his vulnerability relative to his pomp.

On another note, the commentators are wondering whether Dimitrov hurt his ankle in his last service game - whatever else happens, let's hope that this match will not turn on a twisted ankle, or indeed a problem to either player.

This reminds me of Wimbledon 2008 - I could not see where Federer would get the break from in the final set, and I am beginning to feel that with Dimitrov, who cannot rely on a final set tiebreaker like Pouille did.

How many times have we seen this - Nadal claws back from 15-40 to have [Dimitrov] on 0-30 at the business end of the fifth?

Game, set, match Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal is one of the greatest champions of all time. Grigor Dmitrov has nothing to be ashamed of.

What a wonderful match

Let's hope for something like that come Sunday

So much unknown. How tired will both be. How will roger deal with it mentally. Will Rafa be nervous too?

My props to both. Welcome back Dimi

Shame - let's hope that Dimitrov pushes on from here.  I'll probably watch the final, but the only thing I dislike more than the sheer inevitability of the result in bo5 Fedal matches is that Fed usually plays well enough at times to give false hope https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfnhmuZ27eQ

Well at 3-4 15-40 that was really in the balance. You can't say a Nadal win was inevitable at that particular point.

Credit to Dimitrov for a good tournament. He certainly strikes the ball harder than a few years ago - not just a player with good technical ability these days but has a bit more bite.

This time. I think roger might do it. Maybe just a bit of luck, provided he isn't feeling it after two five setters

Anyone remember the seed Sampras has in 02?

barrystar wrote:Shame - let's hope that Dimitrov pushes on from here.  I'll probably watch the final, but the only thing I dislike more than the sheer inevitability of the result in bo5 Fedal matches is that Fed usually plays well enough at times to give false hope https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfnhmuZ27eQ

If Federer gets embroiled in 20-21 shot rallies on almost every second point in Sunday's final, there can only be one outcome....