World cup seeding

OK - 2 rounds of 6 nations over - and there is discussion over who might win that or whether England can repeat their slam success. But the other thing depending on the 6 Nations is seeding for the next rugby world cup. Now I know there are still 3 rounds and various permutations possible but having had a stab at analysing the possibilities here are some interesting outcomes. I am not making predictions merely stating the facts


1. England are guaranteed a place in the top 4 UNLESS they lose all 3 of their last matches AND by more than 15 pts to Italy and Scotland
2. Italy are in the third tier UNLESS they win all 3 remaining matches by more than 15 pts
3. Ireland remain in tier 1 (top 4) if they win 2 of their remaining matches, unless they are beaten by Wales and Wales beat Scotland and France. They cannot drop to tier 3 even if they lose all remaining matches by more than 15 pts,
4.Wales move to tier 1 if they win all remaining matches. However if they lose to Scotland, they must win one of the other 2 matches (against Ireland or France) or they are in tier 3
5. Scotland move to tier 1 if they win their remaining games AND Ireland lose 2 of their remaining games. However if they lose to Wales and England they drop to tier 3.
6. France drop to tier 3 if they lose to Ireland and Wales AND Scotland beat Wales (however as in point 5 if Scotland lose to Wales and England then  France are saved at the expense of Scotland)

The above points 3 to 6 are making the assumptions that Italy lose their remaining matches by more than 15 pts and that the remaining wins are by less than 15 pts to avoid making it too complicated, (although it is possible to work out those scenarios with more time and effort)

So next round of matches are critical - if Ireland beats France - then Scotland V Wales is a crunch match for Scotland, Wales and France. A Scotland win means a shoot out between France and Wales on the last day for a tier 2 v tier 3 place, a Scotland loss means they have to beat England to avoid tier 3.

Good work

Worth noting that, at the time of writing:

Pot 2: Wales, South Africa, France, Scotland
Pot 3: Argentina, Fiji, Japan, Georgia

Tier 1 might be all that it's cracked up to be! Okay, you avoid the All Blacks, but you could still end up with (as an example) SA and Argentina, two of the semi-finalists at the 2015 event!

robbo277 wrote:Worth noting that, at the time of writing:

Tier 2: Wales, South Africa, France, Scotland
Tier 3: Argentina, Fiji, Japan, Georgia

Tier 1 might be all that it's cracked up to be! Okay, you avoid the All Blacks, but you could still end up with (as an example) SA and Argentina, two of the semi-finalists at the 2015 event!

If I've read this right then one of Wales, France or Scotland can displace Ireland, but I don't think anyone can displace Australia given that they would have to overtake Ireland first.

So that basically means there will be one Group of Death (whoever gets Argentina), and quite possibly two pools in which there are two NH sides as the top two seeds. It sounds weird to write it, but the top tier teams may well be hoping to draw South Africa rather than Wales or France.

It's still two years out but could well be the case. SA has some serious structural problems.

Not sure about the group of death. I'd be slightly concerned if Eng drew Wales and Argentina, or South Africa and Argentina. If we drew Scotland and Argentina or France and Argentina I'd be alright with that.

Perhaps the impact is bigger if you are one of those tier 2 nations.

Well a Pot 2 Nation could draw the All Blacks and Argentina, which is an immensely scarier prospect, especially if you consider the gap between 4 and 5 might be paper thin. A missed penalty in Ireland vs Wales could potentially be the difference between that group and one with South Africa (at their current level?) and Japan.

The original post by poissonrouge better addresses who needs what to jump up a level, but I think Aus are safe because they have quite a big buffer over Wales in 5th. The only way Wales could overtake them was if they won their last 3 by a margin (and even then perhaps not, haven't run the numbers), but that would involve beating Ireland and mean Ireland probably wouldn't overtake them either.

Germany with a good win over Romania at the weekend, in with a shout of qualification if they can keep it up. Trip to Georgia this week not likely to be so successful mind!

IN answer to a couple of points raised above

robbo277 wrote:The original post by poissonrouge better addresses who needs what to jump up a level, but I think Aus are safe because they have quite a big buffer over Wales in 5th. The only way Wales could overtake them was if they won their last 3 by a margin (and even then perhaps not, haven't run the numbers), but that would involve beating Ireland and mean Ireland probably wouldn't overtake them either.

Wales can overtake Australia (86.56 vs 86.35) if they beat Scotland Ireland and France by over 15 pts each - as a result Ireland drop to 5th and Aus remain in 4th
Ireland can overtake Australia, but they need to  beat Wales, and even wins by Wales over Scotland and France by > 15 pts won't get Wales to 4th (Aus 86.35 Wales 84.55)

pourfour wrote:If I've read this right then one of Wales, France or Scotland can displace Ireland, but I don't think anyone can displace Australia given that they would have to overtake Ireland first.

France can only displace Ireland in 4th if Ireland lose to Wales and France beat either Ireland or Wales by > 15 pts

On a side note I'd rather be in a pot 2 with NZ and a PI in the group than pot 1 with say Wales and Argentina. Would at least mean we could only meet NZ in the final

I don't care who is in the damn pot with us. Maybe New Zealand will be a minnow side by then anyway....

robbo277 wrote:Worth noting that, at the time of writing:

Pot 2: Wales, South Africa, France, Scotland
Pot 3: Argentina, Fiji, Japan, Georgia

Tier 1 might be all that it's cracked up to be! Okay, you avoid the All Blacks, but you could still end up with (as an example) SA and Argentina, two of the semi-finalists at the 2015 event!

I almost shat myself. I thought you said POOL 2 is made up of ...... Thank god for my minor lysdexia

Nice work op. I got confused just trying to keep up whilst reading it let alone working it out in the first place. Thanks

SecretFly wrote:I don't care who is in the damn pot with us.  Maybe New Zealand will be a minnow side by then anyway....

Wales were one of the pot 3 minnows in the last World Cup. It was fun!