PGA Tour: Golf in La La Land: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

1).Genesis? Conjures up images of Charterhouse lads selling England by the pound and lambs lying down on Broadway.
Or ancient fiction.
But, no, let there be light.
We're talking about LA'S historic "Open" being sponsored by a South Korean motor company - pity they couldn't have called it the Genesis LA Open though. Instead, it just sounds like a revival of the old Genny Open. RIP.

2).Whatever they call it, the quality of the course and field cannot be doubted, as good a field as we're likely to find this "regular" season on one of the Tour's elite courses, George Thomas's Par 71 Riviera CC. Southern California, and Los Angeles in particular, is scheduled for some of golf's premier events these next few years; apart from the Tour stops in San Diego and LA, we'll look forward to:
~US Open: 2021: Torrey Pines
~US Open: 2023: Los Angeles CC
~Walker Cup: 2017: Los Angeles CC
~US Amateur: 2017: Rivera

3).With the World Rankings, and especially the OWGR Top Ten, featuring an almost record Number of young players, the focus is increasingly on youth, but perhaps Riviera will demand experience as well. Bill Haas was the last player younger than 30 (and he was in his 30th year) to win here and he was making his 7th visit.
So: Will any upstart yute emulate the feats of Thomas (2), Swafford, Rahm, Matsuyama and Spieth so far this year and earn a 7th successive win this year for a 20-something.

4).Those 6 x young guns are climbing the World Rankings (well, Spieth will be climbing again) but age is no protector of continued status. Once a player starts plummeting down the rankings it usually demands a sustained string of good results to reverse trend and move back up the charts.
Some big plungers who started out 2017 in the top 200 and are headed south in a hurry include:
Senden's ranking has slid 30.9%
Harrington's: 30.4%
Karlberg: 28.7%
Chris Wood: 25.6%
Danny Lee: 25.4%
Honourable Mentions to: Donaldson (down 22.4%), Dubuisson (down 24.1%), both in free fall.
For the Kaufman fan club, he's down 23.5% which is nothing to get smylie about. He withdrew this week, complaining about poa annua greens and looking forward to being back on Bermuda.

5).For all the beauty of the Monterey Peninsula, the final round at Pebble Beach must have been as dreary an 18 holes' TV as we've watched in a long time; in such circumstances I reckon the TV commentators have a responsibility to do more than rhapsodise about the scenery, rabbit on about "celebrities" we've never heard of and offer endless analysis of Konica Minolta BizHub Swing Vision slo-mos. CBS can and should do better. Player interviews would be a good start.

6).Which takes nothing away from Jordan Spieth and the apparently effortless way he strolled to his 9th Tour win. And he's played well (4th, 12th, mc) enough at Riviera to suggest he has the course knowledge to win again.

7).One of the interesting aspects of Riviera are the two holes that open the front and back nines:
1st hole: About the easiest Par-5 on Tour with a scoring average of 4.2
10th hole: The iconic short Par-4 that remains a fine short hole but the green has got firmer, harder and more unforgiving to the extent that it can sometimes seem unfair. I thought there was a move afoot to re-do the green but I can't find anything to shed light on that. Well overdue if they haven't.

8).So: Who's here?
Top Tenners: Day, Dustin, Hideki, Spieth, Scott Thomas (not Kristin), Sergio, Reed.
Among course specialists are: Phil (2 wins), Bubba (2 wins) whilst Adam Scott has a win and 2 runners up, Dustin has runnered up twice and I like his chances this week after playing well at Pebble.

9).Europeans include:
Casey and Donald, both past runners up - but no European win since Faldo 20 years ago (and, yes, you can be sure we'll hear all about it) - Sergio, Harrington, Rose, Molinari, Lowry, McDowell and Kjeldsen (Soren needs some good results, and quick. Otherwise he might as well head back to Europe).
And Thomas Pieters who won the 2012 NCAA individual championship beating Cantlay, Rodgers and Justin Thomas, among others.
Albert Hammond was hashtagging "alternative facts" when he sang It Never Rains In Southern California, and we could be in for a dousing on Friday, perhaps showers other days; which will help approach shots to #10 at least.

10).Tiger Woods first played here 25 years ago (Q: "What do you think of Tiger Woods?" Sandy Lyle: "Dunno, never played it."). And he was going to celebrate with a return this week at a place he's never won as a Pro.
But he's withdrawn from the tournament, and withdrawn also from his twice rescheduled news conference.
Is this the end? No-one knows, but the days are surely numbered when he turns up and confidently(??) says he's only here to win the tournament.
Personal view is that he'd enjoy life a darn sight more if he just got well (perhaps find another doctor, diagnosis(??), this on's not working) and resigned himself to just playing for recreational enjoyment, whether at home or on Tour. He can play almost when and wherever he likes, why does he have to be so damn competitive?
Have fun Tiger; would have thought Arnold Palmer, among others, might have reminded you that it's only a game.

3 shot difference between the waves, a lot more than normal. Puts Vegas, Spieth, Percy, and Kokrak rounds into perspective. Layers of the Onion.

R1
70.56 = early
71.43 = late

R2
72.86 = early
70.47 = late

thru 36
141.03 = early-late
144.29 = late-early

OK then, Wot we got?

Just finishing out Round 3 and DJ looking pretty good, tho' certainly not a runaway.

Round 4 underway and lots to play for for the European survivors, though Casey Sergio & McDool are slipping off the pace as things currently stand.

Harrington & Pieters still playing well, Donald salvaging an even-par Round 3, and Laird & Rose on the fringes of contention. (Wow! Has Rose just holed out for eagle?)

Not a good week for Dustin's contenders for #1, with Day nearer last than first, Spieth middle of the road, and Hideki already having left the stage. Adam Scott with a chance to slightly narrow the chasm between #6 and #7. Didn't he catch fir round about this time last year?

Great stuff DJ! Deservedly going to be number one! Great to see

Padraig hitting more fairways than usual, hopefully it's a good sign of things to come

Yep, master class from DJ. Giving no one a sniff.

DJ making this a walk in the park. Assuming he wins today (good assumption), that will be 10 years in a row he's won on tour. Pretty amazing.

He started in CNY, Sr, where it all began . . . . . . .

DJ lapping the field! So many dominant performances this season already!

First and 2nd both from Columbia, SC.

Thomas Pieters coming up on the rails in the race for 2nd place.
While McDowell goes in unstoppable reverse with a Par-4 snowman. He needs some decent tournaments.

Just saw that Kwin! I'm guessing Justin could make an actual snowman today in Verona, NY.

In one hole, Faldo utters in "Return of the Giant Hogweed" and "Afterglow". Look for him to mention that Supper's Ready on the East Coast at the top of the hour.

You mean you weren't AT Turning Stone then, Sr?
Wonder what Faldo's ex-wives think about him talking about his afterglow?

Dottie Pepper going on about "two slow players" driving Bryan crazy but doesn't name names . . . . . I think the ones she's searching for are the always snail-like Ben Crane; and Brian Stuard who I didn't know had a tortoise repuation.

Couple of dodgy holes from Johnson, classic "thoughts on victory speech".

Looks like The Laird headed your advice Kwini. Good scoring there.

Brilliant week from Thomas Pieters!!!!

Yeah good from Pieters, I didn't think he'd perform as well as he has this week. Im still holdin out for a Schniederjans charge over the last few holes...

What does it take for a non member like Pieters to get his card?

Kjeldsen has hardly missed a cut on the ET for 2 years. Now it's 4 MCs in a row on the PGAT. Field 'depthness', rough 'depthness' or buffet 'depthness'? Dunno, but he's certaintly following in the footsteps of many a good ET player.

Kjeldsen,
About last in driving distance and in the bottom quartile in every meaningful stat. Otherwise he's doing great.

As for Pieters, his status might depend on late finishers, but this result gets him very close, plus he'll be entrenched in the Top 50 , hence most WGC's, so he should do it in a stroll.

Don't you think the big winner this week is Riviera? Would love to play that course.

Riviera, Colonial and Shady Oaks. 3 for the bucket list.

Ah, The Ben Hogan trifecta . . . . . . . . .

Not sure how the new FedEx points set-up will work out, but Martin Laird has probably sewn up his card for next season. One of the more under-rated players out there.
Very happy to see Lukey come to life, despite that short birdie miss.

Riviera looked terrific, despite the weather. Puts the lie to the old chant - there's only one Riviera!
Great to see great golf courses rather than water parks!

DJ has really been consistent over the past couple of years. Loads of top 10s. He's 'deservedly' new no.1.

Yes Riviera looked terrific. No wonder it was here OJ Simpson preferred to search for the real killers...

Indeed, wonder how long he'll last there, getting quite congested at the top and there's a lot of people ready to pounce.

The biggest thing DJ has going for him as far as #1 longevity is concerned, is that he doesn't much care about it, just wants to win tournaments and get his end away. Seems to be doing a good job of both.

Back to the water park next week, but then "Mexico" and no idea what awaits there.

Yeah good to see Luuke turn in a decent performance, i don't know what you were worrying about Kwini

Good stuff from The Laird also, he has all the qualities needed to be a solid performer on the PGA Tour. If his putting was a little better then he'd be right up there.

The only criticism I'd have of Rose is he's too steady, too consistent imo thats why he hasn't won more majors. He doesn't tend to get "hot".

Well done DJ, master class.

Very impressive from Pieters too, seems to be making the transition from the inferior "depthness" of the European Tour to the PGA without having to try too hard.

Be_the_ball wrote:Yeah good to see Luuke turn in a decent performance, i don't know what you were worrying about Kwini

Good stuff from The Laird also, he has all the qualities needed to be a solid performer on the PGA Tour. If his putting was a little better then he'd be right up there.

The only criticism I'd have of Rose is he's too steady, too consistent imo thats why he hasn't won more majors. He doesn't tend to get "hot".

Well done DJ, master class.

He stays Luke-warm..

super_realist wrote:Very impressive from Pieters too, seems to be making the transition from the inferior "depthness" of the European Tour to the PGA without having to try too hard.

Let's see sups. One swallow doesn't make a summer. I hope he makes it but wouldn't bet on it.

Pieters came in second place. First loser, big deal ... just another tournament he did not win.

ha ha

He needs a few more reps

super_realist wrote:Very impressive from Pieters too, seems to be making the transition from the inferior "depthness" of the European Tour to the PGA without having to try too hard.

He didn't win. He FAILED.

While you affirm your confirmation bias with Pieters' and Rose's performances at LA, don't forget to scroll down the leaderboard and see how Sergio, McDowell, Kjeldson, Molinari, Schwartzel, Els, and Schwartzel performed

The analysis is not about the best performances, its about all performances.

(If you read the article, I wouldn't have to repeat that)

Sergio won last week.

Sergio won on the Eurotour two weeks ago. He finished T49 on the PGATour which is more data supporting the article's premise. Dual tour players perform better on the Euro Tour than the PGATour.

sirbenson wrote:What does it take for a non member like Pieters to get his card?

Pieters has earned 306 "faux" FEX points, he needs 319 to claim Special Temporary Membership (STM) which will allow him to accept unlimited Sponsors Exemptions.

With the new FEX earning schedule, he probably needs 375 pts to get his 2017-18 PGATour card. It could be as little 350 pts. He has already earned enough to get a conditional 2017-18 card.

Wait a minute, Dustin Johnson missed a cut a couple of weeks ago, and now he's won? What does that say?

The problem is your taking this article as if it's the definitive measure of something.

super, you'd get a job at a cherry picking farm any day...

It sounds a bit like trying to figure out why a home team's record is better than an away teams record.

Just looking at someone's particular record, winning or place, doesn't tell the whole story, I would have thought that was obvious.

super_realist wrote:Wait a minute, Dustin Johnson missed a cut a couple of weeks ago, and now he's won? What does that say?

The problem is your taking this article as if it's the definitive measure of something.

Considering that both tournaments are on the PGATour, it means nothing.

I am representing exactly what the article says with its supporting data.

The problem is you that never read the article, or so you claimed a few days ago. (Not sure if you could understand it if you did read it, as you would probably nitpick some grammar issue and dismiss it as worthless)

I read the article, still don't understand what point it was trying to make except for reaffirming the bleeding obvious, and still find the discussion utterly pointless - it doesn't take any account, for instance, in players' motivations for playing tournaments.

There are more important things in life, like the terrorist situation in Sweden and the Bowling Green Massacre . . . . . .

More interesting than those two crucially important items is the R&A announcement that The Open in 2020 goes to St.Georges. That surely sends the 2021 Open to St.Andrews and leaves Turnberry on the outside looking in; appropriately enough on US Presidents Day.

At least there's 6 years between TOC and the last one though, not sure why they've done this other than to make imbue the number 150 with some sort of ridiculous significance. Sounds all a bit Y2K to me.
Do they want the 150th Open to be remembered with a competition that produces hardly any drama? Or are they looking for a 254 to mark it for posterity?

reaffirming the bleeding obvious

Classic example of a crawfish.

Players motivations? Really? Is that the best you can do?

There are 36 players tallied in the graph, each with at least 40 rounds on both the EuroTour and PGATours.

That's at least 2880 different data points, probably close to 4000 data points. And I am pretty sure the frequency of "Mailing it in" between the two respective tour mitigates any ant-bias toward, if the sheer volume of data points doesn't do it already.

I like crawfish.

You're still to explain the point of the ANALysis, other than super's home and away observation, (not clear whether it double-dips on the European Tour members incidentally).
Last year was honours even in my book, two Majors each, US got the Ryder Cup, Europe the FedEx Cup (not to mention R2D). Everything else is just stuff.

kwinigolfer wrote:I like crawfish.

You're still to explain the point of the ANALysis, other than super's home and away observation, (not clear whether it double-dips on the European Tour members incidentally).
Last year was honours even in my book, two Majors each, US got the Ryder Cup, Europe the FedEx Cup (not to mention R2D). Everything else is just stuff.

The point? Did you read the article? It explains it.

And yes, it counts all players who played at least 40 rounds of golf on both tours since 2010. If you mouse over the dots on the graph you will see the player that dot represents. Rory is there, Justin is there, Poults, Westwood, Els, Sterne, Oosty, McDowell. All players who played 40 rounds apiece in un-co-sanctioned tournaments on both tours.

Here is the link again

http://datagolf.ca/a-quick-look-at-differences-in-field-quality-on-the-us-and-european-tours/

Not one of the 36 players performed better on the PGATour than the EuroTour. Three players performed equally on both tours, (Danny Lee, Anibar Lahiri, Robert Karlsson).

IMO, the article has objective metrics that has been a subjective and opinion-base argument. This analysis got away from the "Best players" vs the "Best Players" argument and went TOUR against TOUR.

I've done all that - just don't think it states anything that we don't already know. As far as I'm concerned, just preaching to the converted, but not in any sophisticated way.

What I will say is that I have a very opinionated view on why certain players turn up to certain tournaments, and the motivation to play is, I believe, a factor in players' relative performances.

The chart is not comparing apples and apples. And some of the discrepancies are massive to give a proper statistical analysis, how can you base things on over 100+ more rounds played.

Though Euro players probably travel back to Europe to play weaker events, which they have links to, Molinari in Italia, Sergio in Spain, Saffers in Saffer Land, Rory in the Queens Ireland etc.

But surely most agree that probably more depth in America compared to Europe but maybe because the players in Europe have not had the chance to play in America like the actual Americans.

If Jamie Donaldson was from Swansea South Carolina he would of held his own in America rather then popping over when married with kids while Chris Kirk could be a journeyman Euro player if from just north of Lisbon.

So most of you are now admitting that the PGATour is deeper? But still questioning validity of the analysis?

Don't you find that is a little hypocritical?

beniho wrote:The chart is not comparing apples and apples

.

Correct: Its Apples and Oranges. PGATour vs European Tour

And some of the discrepancies are massive to give a proper statistical analysis, how can you base things on over 100+ more rounds played.

Huh? Do you know how statistical analysis work? More Data = More Accurate analysis. It minimizes the effect of potentially anomalies. 30 rounds is typically the minimum number a statistician

Though Euro players probably travel back to Europe to play weaker events, which they have links to, Molinari in Italia, Sergio in Spain, Saffers in Saffer Land, Rory in the Queens Ireland etc.

But surely most agree that probably more depth in America compared to Europe but maybe because the players in Europe have not had the chance to play in America like the actual Americans.

Many of the players in the analysis have been World Class players for years and years. and World Class players before 2010 There are not many Danny Lee's and Lahiri's in the analysis. Its mostly players like Sergio, Rory, Kaymer, GMAC, Poulter, Westwood, Oosty, Schwartzel, Rose, Stenson.

Players like Fitzpatrick, Sullivan, Hatton, are not part of the analysis because they don't have 40 rounds on the PGATour in un-co-sanctioned events.

GPB,
Almost all posters commenting on the report agree that the PGA Tour has more depthness, as you call it.

Where I, at least, have an issue is in the relevance of the data that's compiled to prove the point.
I'm going to have a look at a couple of comparisons which I suspect will offer a different interpretation. Don't hold your breath, it may take a while.

Interesting that you never responded to my point/opinion that different players play tournaments for different reasons, but think we can all agree that they (90% at least) try their very best at Majors and Ryder (except Woods I suppose)/Presidents Cups.

Off to get my green eye shade and abacus . . . . . . .

kwinigolfer wrote:GPB,
Almost all posters commenting on the report agree that the PGA Tour has more depthness, as you call it.

Where I, at least, have an issue is in the relevance of the data that's compiled to prove the point.
I'm going to have a look at a couple of comparisons which I suspect will offer a different interpretation. Don't hold your breath, it may take a while.

Interesting that you never responded to my point/opinion that different players play tournaments for different reasons, but think we can all agree that they (90% at least) try their very best at Majors and Ryder (except Woods I suppose)/Presidents Cups.

Off to get my green eye shade and abacus . . . . . . .

Of course they play tournaments for different reasons. I can't believe any elite player would go into a tournament like Honda and intentionally, not try their best. At least make a habit of it. And it probably occurs on each tour the same amount. And IMO, that is just rationalization and excuse making.

I will say that I don't think the analysis went far enough and perhaps there will be a subsequent report. Its basically a STAT 101 analysis which in most cases is accurate.

A STAT 201 analysis would included a ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) and I would contact the author to see if he is planning to do one. The author is not listed nor is there any contact information

-GPB Six Sigma Black Belt