Indian Wells 2017

Bottom Quarter

R3

Del Porto v Djokovic
Zverev v Kyrgios

R4

Del Porto/Djokovic v Zverev/Kyrgios
Federer v Nadal

QF

Djokovic v Nadal/Federer

Djoko's got a horror draw and could meet delpo in round three and also has Kyrgios, Rafa, Rog and Zverev in his quarter. Dimi is also in Djoko's half
  Murray, on the other hand, has - at least on paper - a much easier draw.
On the women's side, Serena has had to pull out thru injury - she will also miss Miami - meaning Kerber will return to number one. Konta could play Heather Watson in round two.

sirfredperry wrote:Djoko's got a horror draw and could meet delpo in round three and also has Kyrgios, Rafa, Rog and Zverev in his quarter. Dimi is also in Djoko's half
  Murray, on the other hand, has - at least on paper - a much easier draw.
 On the women's side, Serena has had to pull out thru injury - she will also miss Miami - meaning Kerber will return to number one. Konta could play Heather Watson in round two.

One thing with tough draws - it sorts the men out from the boys. By that I mean if you are in poor nick form and confidence-wise you'll be found out so this will be an acid test for Novak. I think, where he is just now, he'd settle for a few wins against very good players say beating Del Potro, Kyrgios and reaching the quarters. If he gets that far he'll feel a lot better confidence-wise and then who knows?

Nadal doesn't have it easy either- potential R3 Verdasco; R4 Fed; QF Djoko/Delpo/A Zverev/Kyrgios.

Fed's a little bit easier until R4; Murray's more a cakewalk for a no.1.

The draw is incredibly unbalanced. All the potential winners (bar Murray) are crammed into the bottom quarter. When Murray produces his usual Indian Wells performance and loses to Lopez in R2, it's going to look ridiculous!

Heather Watson has beaten Nicole Gibbs to set up a second round all-British clash with Jo Konta.

45 grand slams in one quarter of the draw.

One for the conspiracy theorists too. Djokovic has been stiffed.

I don't imagine he thinks of it like this, but from a bystander's point of view it would be good for Federer to come out of this in the top 8 so he can to maximise his chances of avoiding another tough draw in Miami.  A top 8 ranking might be v. desirable for the Wimbledon draw, the chances of which would be helped if he doesn't face too many tough draws between now and then.  With the clay court season looming, IW and Miami may be his last chances to get some decent points on the board before the Grass season.

Currently Fed is #8 with the IW 2016 points knocked off (he was #9 for the draw because Raonic is sitting it out).   He'd have to win the whole thing to go above Nadal to #6, but a more realistic concern/target is to match Thiem and Tsonga, who are on almost the same point score as him, so as to stay in the top 8.  If they and Nadal play to their respective seedings at IW that would require Federer at least to beat Nadal again...

On the other hand, maybe he's better off just enjoying his tennis and seeing what happens - it worked OK last time.

It's unlikely we're going to get a quarter of the draw like this again any time soon as I think Fed, for one, will have a swift rise up the rankings. It could well be that Rafa has a better clay-court season than last year and that would push his ranking up, too.

sirfredperry wrote:It's unlikely we're going to get a quarter of the draw like this again any time soon as I think Fed, for one, will have a swift rise up the rankings. It could well be that Rafa has a better clay-court season than last year and that would push his ranking up, too.
   

Guess Rafa may be back in the top four at the end of the clay season. Not sure how much Fed will play during the clay season. His rise may have to wait until after Wimbledon.

G82. Fed has said he'll sort out his clay-court calendar after IW and Miami. Not sure he can go far wrong. If he does well at the two US tournaments, his ranking will go up and he need not play too much before RG. Early-ish exits at IW and M will leave him fresher for more pre-French Open events.
His 2,000 points from 2017 AO are going to stand him in good stead for the post-Wimbledon period of the season which, of course, he missed altogether last year.
To think he could have dropped out of the top 32 had he gone out early in Melbourne.

So, who do we actually think is favourite here? Murray is awful on these courts - the high bounce and slowness really hurt him, so he won't win it. Novak is the obvious call but does he have sufficient form? Fed looked very poor in much better conditions for him in Dubai and Rafa just got badly beaten by Querrey on similar courts.

I'd like to see Zverev or Kyrgios come through the bottom half. Conditions should suit both of them and it will be a real sign of development. Would be great for tennis.

Interesting how many of the top guys are playing doubles - Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Wawrinka, Berdych. I guess playing a maximum of 6 Bo3 matches over two weeks gives scope for that.

@BS - I think you dismiss Murray too easily

1) conditions doesn't suit Kygrios or Zverev. They like quicker courts and not so high bouncing;
2) Nadal badly beaten by Querrey? Don't think so when the second set went to a TB and Nadal had his chances to fight back but just failed to take them;
3) court at Acapulco not similar to IW, IW is high bouncing plus desert conditions is dry, unlike Acapulco which is humid.

The court here suits Nadal to the T, it's just that he was in a slump since 2015. He may not win here, in fact the one who survives the quarter may then be beaten by the other SFinalist; I say Dimitrov is in better form and shape than Zverev or Kyrgios, and so I think he will beat whoever in the QF and SF to reach the final.

Think Murray has to be very warm favourite. He has a very nice draw, would be surprised to see Wawrinka make the semi-final given his inconsistent form. Other contenders from the quarter are Thiem, Berdych or Isner. Not that challenging. Tsonga in the quarter final looks to be the biggest obstacle to Murray.

If Djokovic can rediscover his mojo then he's the obvious choice. But even a top form Djokovic would struggle with that draw.

barrystar wrote:Interesting how many of the top guys are playing doubles - Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Wawrinka, Berdych.  I guess playing a maximum of 6 Bo3 matches over two weeks gives scope for that.

@BS - I think you dismiss Murray too easily

I reckon that a number of them are entered just to get some court time and familiarisation with conditions in before their 1st singles match. Don't think that many of them are really thinking of wnning the doubles.

Konta vs Watson at 7 pm UK time. Should be good.

JuliusHMarx wrote:Konta vs Watson at 7 pm UK time. Should be good.

A British win, at least!

Murray the favorite, obviously. Even with a normal draw he would probably be, let alone with this one.

I do not remember ever seeing one quarter of the draw as stuffed with top players as here. Even from among the lower seeds, some of the most interesting ones are there.

I hope one of Dimitrov, Stan, Thiem or Kyrgios (or, obviously, Federer) can win it all.

Konta takes out Watson who served numerous DFs. Edmund's reward for victory is Djoko in next round, while another British victor, Evans, will now have to face Nishi.
The men's seeds are finally in action today, with Murray on around 3am Sun UK time against Pospisil.

Note, that we're getting other Brits, regularly beyond the first round and its no longer a surprise

The Edmond of the first set could beat Novak. The version in second, would be lucky to get six games

Stunning match between Tsonga and Fognini and the Italian eventually wins 64 in the third. Very impressive performance.

Andy was 4:6, 0:2 15-40 (incl two DFs) but recovered to hold. Will he turn it around now? Still a break down.

Sure enough, Andy breaks. 2:2 now.

Andy out to Pospisil in straight sets. Cool

I have to say the TB went against the flow of play in most of the second set.  Andy was in general looking more comfortable holding than Pospisil was.  But Pospisil deserved it in the TB.  Andy helped a little with a DF, but Pospisil played really well to get to 6:2 in TB, before struggling a little to put Andy away 7:5.

Who will now make the final from the top half?

Hd a nasty feeling Andy would have trouble with (anything's) Pospisil but didn't think he would lose. He really seems to struggle at IW. Good opportunity now for someone in the top half of the draw to clock up some big points.

The real Andy Murray back in 2017...

Mediocre performance from Djokovic, but it gets the job done.

The blockbuster matches scheduled for the bottom quarter of the IW draw are very much on, with all the seeds in that section coming through. Good performance from Taylor Fritz to knock out Cilic.

Is there a weakness with Murray playing against net rushers?

Pospisil and M Zverev have beaten him playing that style.

Guest82 wrote:Is there a weakness with Murray playing against net rushers?

Pospisil and M Zverev have beaten him playing that style.  

He usually destroys net-rushers, so it's odd he has lost to two in a row. As I said above though, Indian Wells is the worst court on tour for him. The combination of speed through the air plus the high slow bounce of the courts doesn't suit him at all. An on-form match-tough Pospisil was always going to be a tough one for him first match.

Whilst he still has a big lead in the rankings, he now needs a good run in Miami or the pressure will really be on during the clay season.

To be fair both Pospisil and Zverev are very good at the net. Refreshing to see them trying it though, always frustrates me to see someone like Pospisil try to stay with Murray or Djokovic from the baseline.

I think his lead at the top of the rankings is safe for a while. But he's 8th in the race and likely to fall down further when everyone else gains the IW points.

Didn't see the match but as in AO it seems that his serve is causing most problems. He broke Pospisil twice in the first set but was broken three times. He also lost serve 4 times in a row (going 0-2 in second set) and served 7 double faults in the match. Once the opponent gets ahead if they don't fold it makes it very difficult to get back into the match.

Del Potro v Djoko and Fed v Johnson tonight at IW. Nice easy draw for Djoko! Next two matches for him will probably be Kyrgios and then Fedal. That's if he can get by JMDP.
  I see Berdych managed to lose after being a set and 5-2 up - to a lucky loser.

sirfredperry wrote:Del Potro v Djoko and Fed v Johnson tonight at IW. Nice easy draw for Djoko! Next two matches for him will probably be Kyrgios and then Fedal. That's if he can get by JMDP.
  I see Berdych managed to lose after being a set and 5-2 up - to a lucky loser.

I watched a bit of the Berdych match. Think Nishioka was limping too when he went a double break down in the second. I turned it off thinking it was finished.

Nishioka lost to Ymer in the final round of qualifying and then beat him in the first round, once he had entered as a lucky loser.

G82. Yeah, same thing happened to Bedene earlier in the season. He beat Istomin in final round of Q and then Istomin became an LL and promptly beat Bedene in first round.

Think Nishioka tanked his final Q match?

He's certainly a much better player than Ymer.

Rafa beats Verdasco in straight sets.

This is heading towards an unpredictable exciting year for tennis. Could this be the year of the "return" of Nadal and Federer. They both started the year with a big bang. I wonder if they will be able to keep it up.

No name Bertie wrote:This is heading towards an unpredictable exciting year for tennis.  Could this be the year of the "return" of Nadal and Federer.  They both started the year with a big bang.  I wonder if they will be able to keep it up.

Well only one of them will make the QF this time. To return to my theme, if getting into the top 8 ASAP is a goal of Fed's, he needs to beat Nadal again and to stay ahead of Thiem, who should beat Monfils.

I see that Dimitrov has lost vs. Sock - shame.

Dimi had four MPs, too ! Reckon Rafa will beat Rog this time but at least it should be a good match. Murray must be kicking himself, as the top of the draw is wide open.

Has there been any definite reasonable theory as to why Djokovic's form fell away following the French Open? I heard rumours that he hit a rocky patch with his wife after playing away with another woman, then the subsequent impact this had on his marriage with young kid. Not sure if there is any truth in this but the fall off has been dramatic. I know that Djokovic was really motivated for the Olympics 2016 because it all ended up in tears after defeat against the mighty Del Potro. Del Potro seems to have injured himself again after his Davis Cup heroics - he missed the AUstralian Open 2017.

Djoko by his own admission was less motivated after completing the career Slam by winning the French. Yes, there have been suggestions that he had a fling and there has also been the split with Boris.
Boris said around the time of the AO this year that Djoko had not been practising with the usual intensity at the end of 2016.
However, Djoko seems in good form at IW and could go all the way despite a nightmare draw.

The drop in novaks play for me is definitely down to motivation. Becker has said already that he was not hitting the practise court nearly as much after that.in fairness he has won pretty much everything there is to win (except Cincinnati, I know others disagree but I think Olympic tennis is a joke).

Novak has been at the business end of all the big tournaments from 2011 to the French open last year. The relief of winning that tournament after so many close runs had to be such a weight off his shoulders.

Of course he would like to catch roger federer's slam total but that won't happen now. Novak has probably already achieved more than he could ever have dreamt (I always believed he could win 8-10 slams) but now he is the elite league.

Finally all the years on tour are catching up and I don't think he has the same motivation, he is human. However that doesn't mean he might not win another slam but it will be significantly harder from now on. I think if he could catch or surpass nadal, that is as much as he can realistically expect and that is a stretch too.

I think the cheating rumours are all tabloid nonsense, having a kid definitely changes things and clearly his priority is family now.

The rumour I got told was that he was playing away with a Bollywood actress and his wife found out during Wimbledon last year. Hence the drop in form since then.

Djokovic was very good against Delpo last night. I think he is lacking consistency, but at the top of his game is probably as good, if not better, than anyone. I expect him to win more slams.

Predictions for tonight.

Nishikori in 2
Djokovic in 2
Rafa in 3
Thiem in 3
PCB in 2
Goffin in 2
Sock in 2
Stan in 2

Probably the biggest fall-off in history after playing away was Tiger Woods.  His then wife left him, it all became public. Woods took time off, never recovered.  The temptation must be there when you are such a high profile sports star and women are falling over backwards offering themselves.  I think what happened to Djokovic was more than him simply winning the French and completing his set, because of all the vague statements he made about there being more to life than tennis as well as indicating there were a few behind the scenes personal issues that he didn't want to talk about.

G82. Full marks to you for being prepared to predict for all eight men's matches tonight.

No name Bertie wrote:The temptation must be there when you are such a high profile sports star and women are falling over backwards offering themselves.

Yeah, I get that a lot as Admin of this site. It's not easy to resist, let me tell you.

Djokovic beaten in straights by Kyrgios. Genuine signs he's becoming the real deal. Back to back wins over Zverev and Novak without even facing a break point.